Bad news this week for Carl Crawford. He's out at least another three months with an elbow injury rehab. The Red Sox hope to get him back in mid-July. If that comes to pass he'll be available for about 11 weeks this year, or roughly 40% of the season.
So, what do you do with guys like this? Crawford was supposed to have a bounceback season this year after a big dip in 2011. A wrist injury limited him in the Spring and brought down his draft-day cost considerably. He was to return in early May.
I took him with the first pick of the 7th round in my AL-Only Expert League, and now I'm wondering what to do with him. That seemed like fantastic value at the time... I mean, you gotta figure that the 7th round in an AL-Only is akin to around the 12th or 13th round in a mixed league. Great value there, right? Even with the wrist injury and the down year last year? Sure, but not with the elbow injury, too.
What to do, what to do... In a 10-team or 12-team mixed league you can probably go ahead and cut a guy like this unless you don't have a better option for your DL slot (or you don't have a DL slot). In a deeper league or AL-Only you pretty much have to hold on.
My AL-Only league only has 5 bench spots and no DL slot... plus I've got Brett Gardner and Lonnie Chisenhall and just picked up Zach Britton. Gah! If I could trade him for 50 cents on the dollar I would do it. Maybe 25 cents on the dollar. What sort of player does that represent in AL-Only? Hmm, I would think I'd have a fair chance to get a player like Jeff Francoeur or David Murphy.
So, since we're about 10% of the way into the season the question becomes, "Is 50% of the year with someone like Clete Thomas and hopefully 40% of the year with Carl Crawford better than 90% of the year with Jeff Francoeur?" Man, I have got to think that it is actually better to hold on to Crawford and hope for the best.
The hidden catch in that equation though, is that Thomas and Crawford take up two bench spots and Francoeur only requires one. That leaves a spot to fish for saves with another setup guy or stash another utility infielder.
Your mileage may vary, but the point here is to take everything into consideration and not to just dump a commodity like Crawford for nothing.
Of course, if you don't currently own Crawford the reverse situation may be true as well... Today might be a great time to make a lowball offer for Crawford.
Heck, maybe they'll take Endy Chavez straight up?
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Friday, April 27, 2012
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Extra Medium
Sometimes we get too hung up in finding sleepers and finding breakouts. We all want to be the person to find that next superstar-in-waiting with XXL-size production.
I'm here to tell you that prospecting and gambling too much can be what causes you to lose your fantasy leagues. We dabble too much. We put too many eggs in too few baskets, only to find out there's a hole in the basket.
Listen, you don't need those XXL numbers every time. If you can get consistent reliable numbers that are above-average across the board you'll be in contention. If one or two of those performers really pop for you, that will be a difference-maker. We're avoiding potential busts here.
It's something that I call "extra medium." Better than average. Reliable.
Look, who's more likely to have a big year this year, Ichiro Suzuki or Nick Markakis? Ichiro, I guess. Who's more likely to be a bust? Yep, Ichiro again.
This really does harken back to my recent post about measuring the value of players based on their floor, their ceiling, and their probable outcome. Make sure you measure these, but I do have some constructive insight for you as well.
The acid test that I use when looking at baseball players looks like this:
If you can check those items off you can be reasonably sure you're not going to get a dud.
At this time of year, you should be looking for players that fit this mold that have gotten off to a mediocre start. Their pedigree and recent history of success suggest that a turnaround is coming. We're only 10% of the way through the season for crying out loud... but I promise you that there are folks in your leagues who have itchy trigger fingers with some of these guys. Now is the time to make bids to get them.
I'm here to tell you that prospecting and gambling too much can be what causes you to lose your fantasy leagues. We dabble too much. We put too many eggs in too few baskets, only to find out there's a hole in the basket.
Listen, you don't need those XXL numbers every time. If you can get consistent reliable numbers that are above-average across the board you'll be in contention. If one or two of those performers really pop for you, that will be a difference-maker. We're avoiding potential busts here.
It's something that I call "extra medium." Better than average. Reliable.
Look, who's more likely to have a big year this year, Ichiro Suzuki or Nick Markakis? Ichiro, I guess. Who's more likely to be a bust? Yep, Ichiro again.
This really does harken back to my recent post about measuring the value of players based on their floor, their ceiling, and their probable outcome. Make sure you measure these, but I do have some constructive insight for you as well.
The acid test that I use when looking at baseball players looks like this:
- Is there a significant history of injury?
- Have they strung together at least two seasons in a row with increasing value?
- Do they have a strong pedigree? (High draft pick, soared through the minors, etc.)
- Are they in the prime age range? (26 to 31.)
If you can check those items off you can be reasonably sure you're not going to get a dud.
At this time of year, you should be looking for players that fit this mold that have gotten off to a mediocre start. Their pedigree and recent history of success suggest that a turnaround is coming. We're only 10% of the way through the season for crying out loud... but I promise you that there are folks in your leagues who have itchy trigger fingers with some of these guys. Now is the time to make bids to get them.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Ceiling, Floor, Probability
When evaluating the future value of players I like to use the "ceiling" and "floor" concepts that scouts use, but I also mix in a measure of "probable" result.
It is possible that Player A has both a higher ceiling and floor than Player B, but their most probable or likely results might actually be a little lower than Player B. Maybe Player B is more consistent. Maybe they don't have any threat of injury.
So, for example, let's look at Nelson Cruz and Adam Jones. The ceiling for Cruz is something like .315 with 39 HR, 130 RBI, and 20 SB. However, that would be a full season and he has never played a full season. His floor might be something like .265 with 24 HR, 76 RBI, and 5 SB.
Probably, though, he'll do something like .272 with 25 HR, 88 RBI, and 7 SB.
Let's have a look at Adam Jones. Ceiling: .300 with 32 HR, 110 RBI, 14 SB. His floor? Maybe .262 with 18 HR, 70 RBI, and 6 SB. So, his ceiling is lower and his floor is lower.
But what is most likely with Dr. Jones? I don't know, it is very subjective, but I gotta think something like .280 with 26 HR, 95 RBI, and 12 SB.
Usually when you evaluate players one will have the higher ceiling and the other will have the higher floor. You are gambling upside possibility versus the less risky reliable results option.
Sometimes one player will have the higher ceiling and the higher floor. But, that doesn't mean you automatically pick that guy. Look at the probable outcomes before making your choice.
It is possible that Player A has both a higher ceiling and floor than Player B, but their most probable or likely results might actually be a little lower than Player B. Maybe Player B is more consistent. Maybe they don't have any threat of injury.
So, for example, let's look at Nelson Cruz and Adam Jones. The ceiling for Cruz is something like .315 with 39 HR, 130 RBI, and 20 SB. However, that would be a full season and he has never played a full season. His floor might be something like .265 with 24 HR, 76 RBI, and 5 SB.
Probably, though, he'll do something like .272 with 25 HR, 88 RBI, and 7 SB.
Let's have a look at Adam Jones. Ceiling: .300 with 32 HR, 110 RBI, 14 SB. His floor? Maybe .262 with 18 HR, 70 RBI, and 6 SB. So, his ceiling is lower and his floor is lower.
But what is most likely with Dr. Jones? I don't know, it is very subjective, but I gotta think something like .280 with 26 HR, 95 RBI, and 12 SB.
Usually when you evaluate players one will have the higher ceiling and the other will have the higher floor. You are gambling upside possibility versus the less risky reliable results option.
Sometimes one player will have the higher ceiling and the higher floor. But, that doesn't mean you automatically pick that guy. Look at the probable outcomes before making your choice.
Monday, April 23, 2012
The Footballizing of Baseball
There has been a big shift in recent years toward wooing fantasy football players over to playing fantasy baseball. There have been several reasons for this and it is not a trend that I see slowing down any time soon.
What sort of changes have we seen? Primarily we are talking about the proliferation of Head-to-Head leagues versus the traditional Rotisserie format. On a lesser scale, I have seen more weekly-format leagues instead of daily-format.
These trends are trying to make fantasy baseball more palatable for the fantasy football player. Why? Allow me to explain.
1) Head-to-Head: This format allows players to focus on an individual matchup every week, which feels a lot like football. They can pay attention to what is happening right now instead of planning for the long term health of their team for the full season.
2) Weekly: Setting your roster on a weekly basis instead of monitoring it every day as is traditional in roto baseball. This is a much lower time commitment than baseball usually demands and mirrors what happens in football.
3) Simplified Rosters: I have seen leagues drop the CI or MI or go from 5 OF's to 3 or lower the number of bench spots... or even change all pitching slots to just "P." I've also seen leagues with more than one "Util" slot. All of this combines for less thinking on the part of the fantasy manager. Easier for them to work with.
4) Limited Roster Moves: A smaller trend is toward leagues that don't allow for roster moves or have an extremely limited number of moves per year. This doesn't exactly mirror what happens in football, but if you think about it, how many moves do you make in football? 99% of the time you are putting your waiver claims in once a week and then setting your roster with those guys once a week. The fantasy football player wants to have less to worry about. If you had a league with like 15 roster moves allowed per year, each move would be magnified and you would make sure to ration them out.
What sort of changes have we seen? Primarily we are talking about the proliferation of Head-to-Head leagues versus the traditional Rotisserie format. On a lesser scale, I have seen more weekly-format leagues instead of daily-format.
These trends are trying to make fantasy baseball more palatable for the fantasy football player. Why? Allow me to explain.
1) Head-to-Head: This format allows players to focus on an individual matchup every week, which feels a lot like football. They can pay attention to what is happening right now instead of planning for the long term health of their team for the full season.
2) Weekly: Setting your roster on a weekly basis instead of monitoring it every day as is traditional in roto baseball. This is a much lower time commitment than baseball usually demands and mirrors what happens in football.
3) Simplified Rosters: I have seen leagues drop the CI or MI or go from 5 OF's to 3 or lower the number of bench spots... or even change all pitching slots to just "P." I've also seen leagues with more than one "Util" slot. All of this combines for less thinking on the part of the fantasy manager. Easier for them to work with.
4) Limited Roster Moves: A smaller trend is toward leagues that don't allow for roster moves or have an extremely limited number of moves per year. This doesn't exactly mirror what happens in football, but if you think about it, how many moves do you make in football? 99% of the time you are putting your waiver claims in once a week and then setting your roster with those guys once a week. The fantasy football player wants to have less to worry about. If you had a league with like 15 roster moves allowed per year, each move would be magnified and you would make sure to ration them out.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Drop it Like it's Hot
It occurred to me today that acquiring players off to a hot start is a really bad idea. I realize it is counter-intuitive, but I think we should be trying to acquire players who are off to a reasonable start who are healthy and in their prime.
Let's say, for example, that there is a guy hitting .400 with 14 home runs through the first 32 games of the schedule. He's on pace to hit .400 with 70 home runs. Even if he has a career year, what is the absolute best that can happen?
Maybe for this particular player a career year would look like .310 with 35 home runs. So, if he has that monster career year he will hit .288 with 21 home runs the rest of the way. The person dealing this sort of player away has already gotten the most nutrient-packed meal out of him in the first month of the season.
He's not going to hit .400 with another 56 home runs. But that is what you would be paying for.
I know it hurts, but you should instead be trying to trade away players like this. Look, the other person will be getting a good player. They might get .288 with another 21 home runs, even. But you will be getting much greater value in return.
Who are the players that just haven't caught fire yet? Look for them... They will be hovering around the .230-ish mark with a couple of home runs or maybe a smattering of stolen bases. No injury threat. 27-ish years old.
Let's say there is a player whose average season would be about .280 with 22 home runs. 32 games in he's batting .234 with 2 home runs. No real injury risk or any other red flags... He just hasn't gotten into a groove yet. This is a great target since he is likely to hit about .292 the rest of the way. That, and really 2 home runs is about 10% of his targeted home run total and you're 20% of the way through the season. He isn't all that far behind. He could hit two tomorrow and be right back on track.
That look at percentages with regard to how far into the season you are is a great trick to see who are good trade targets. Seeing just 2 home runs in that last example really messes with people... They're thinking, "This guy is supposed to easily hit over 20 dingers and here we are around mid-May and he's got 2?!? Something must be wrong."
They are magnifying something that isn't there, and that is a time for you to act.
Let's say, for example, that there is a guy hitting .400 with 14 home runs through the first 32 games of the schedule. He's on pace to hit .400 with 70 home runs. Even if he has a career year, what is the absolute best that can happen?
Maybe for this particular player a career year would look like .310 with 35 home runs. So, if he has that monster career year he will hit .288 with 21 home runs the rest of the way. The person dealing this sort of player away has already gotten the most nutrient-packed meal out of him in the first month of the season.
He's not going to hit .400 with another 56 home runs. But that is what you would be paying for.
I know it hurts, but you should instead be trying to trade away players like this. Look, the other person will be getting a good player. They might get .288 with another 21 home runs, even. But you will be getting much greater value in return.
Who are the players that just haven't caught fire yet? Look for them... They will be hovering around the .230-ish mark with a couple of home runs or maybe a smattering of stolen bases. No injury threat. 27-ish years old.
Let's say there is a player whose average season would be about .280 with 22 home runs. 32 games in he's batting .234 with 2 home runs. No real injury risk or any other red flags... He just hasn't gotten into a groove yet. This is a great target since he is likely to hit about .292 the rest of the way. That, and really 2 home runs is about 10% of his targeted home run total and you're 20% of the way through the season. He isn't all that far behind. He could hit two tomorrow and be right back on track.
That look at percentages with regard to how far into the season you are is a great trick to see who are good trade targets. Seeing just 2 home runs in that last example really messes with people... They're thinking, "This guy is supposed to easily hit over 20 dingers and here we are around mid-May and he's got 2?!? Something must be wrong."
They are magnifying something that isn't there, and that is a time for you to act.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Veto Votto
What do you do if there is a trade accepted in your league that is clearly not a fair deal? What if one person is taking advantage of another, newer fantasy player?
Something like Joey Votto for J.D. Martinez. Man, have you seen Martinez' numbers in the minors! That guy is going to be a superstar!
Or, how about this... What if you see one of your primary competitors is getting stronger and you'd really like to block the move, even if it is a reasonable deal? Hmm... that is a tricky one, isn't it?
These issues fall into a grey area based purely on the opinions of other people. So many people are completely against vetos of any deals. Period. Other people are almost always against vetos. Others don't have an opinion.
Me? I'm glad you asked. When it comes to vetos I have two questions: (1) Was there collusion?; and, (2) What is allowed by the rules?
That's it. If there was collusion - automatic veto. There should never be collusion in fantasy sports. It ruins the fun for everyone when two teams conspire to turn one of the two teams into Voltron super-team.
Okay, simple enough but what if you would just like to block a nice move that a serious competitor is making? A lot of people say you shouldn't veto any deal that is even close to being fair. They are adamant about this. I say you should do whatever is legal and ethical to win your league. If you have a vote and you don't want the deal to go down, go ahead and vote against it. In most leagues it takes somewhere between 4 and 8 votes to pass a veto, so if the deal is close to fair than your vote probably isn't going to be enough to get the veto done. So, no harm no foul. You gotta try, though.
I did say that you should do what is ethical, though... Never ask any of your leaguemates to join with you in the veto. That is tantamount to collusion and just not cool. Cast your vote, keep your mouth shut, see what happens.
Then, go and work on a deal of your own.
Something like Joey Votto for J.D. Martinez. Man, have you seen Martinez' numbers in the minors! That guy is going to be a superstar!
Or, how about this... What if you see one of your primary competitors is getting stronger and you'd really like to block the move, even if it is a reasonable deal? Hmm... that is a tricky one, isn't it?
These issues fall into a grey area based purely on the opinions of other people. So many people are completely against vetos of any deals. Period. Other people are almost always against vetos. Others don't have an opinion.
Me? I'm glad you asked. When it comes to vetos I have two questions: (1) Was there collusion?; and, (2) What is allowed by the rules?
That's it. If there was collusion - automatic veto. There should never be collusion in fantasy sports. It ruins the fun for everyone when two teams conspire to turn one of the two teams into Voltron super-team.
Okay, simple enough but what if you would just like to block a nice move that a serious competitor is making? A lot of people say you shouldn't veto any deal that is even close to being fair. They are adamant about this. I say you should do whatever is legal and ethical to win your league. If you have a vote and you don't want the deal to go down, go ahead and vote against it. In most leagues it takes somewhere between 4 and 8 votes to pass a veto, so if the deal is close to fair than your vote probably isn't going to be enough to get the veto done. So, no harm no foul. You gotta try, though.
I did say that you should do what is ethical, though... Never ask any of your leaguemates to join with you in the veto. That is tantamount to collusion and just not cool. Cast your vote, keep your mouth shut, see what happens.
Then, go and work on a deal of your own.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Cuddyer for $16
Yep, I paid $16 for Michael Cuddyer this year in a standard-issue 12-team league with a $260 budget. I felt like I had to. Allow me to explain.
I had to have a 1B and all of the decent options were drying up. There were a few other guys I liked at other positions or as bench players: Howie Kendrick, Edwin Encarnacion, Lucas Duda. Cuddyer was the last one available that I liked who I figured would probably play for me at 1B.
I assumed the bidding would stop around $8 or $9, maybe as high as $10. I had him pre-ranked at $12 so I figured I would get him easily. Wouldn't you know it, there was one other player who liked him too and felt the need for a 1B. So, together we cruised right past $12. I hesitated on $14, but figured it was worth it. He hesitated on $15, but did it. Curses... $16? Really? For Michael Cuddyer? Ugh.
So, I bid $16 and got the guy. I have him with a drop in average and a spike in home runs... Maybe .260 with 34 taters. If he does that, I'll be fine.
But, check it out... I was able to also get Kendrick at $14, Duda at only $1, and E5 for only $3 at the very end of the auction. So, for $34 I gave myself four excellent options at 1B, all with flexibility to play elsewhere. That is how you win leagues, my friends. Do what you have to here and there, but make sure you get value overall.
That, and positional flexibility. I can play matchups. Most days I will probably start three of those four guys, with obviously only one at 1B. I'm not locked into one $30 type like Paul Konerko who has to play every day no matter what.
I greatly prefer my way.
I had to have a 1B and all of the decent options were drying up. There were a few other guys I liked at other positions or as bench players: Howie Kendrick, Edwin Encarnacion, Lucas Duda. Cuddyer was the last one available that I liked who I figured would probably play for me at 1B.
I assumed the bidding would stop around $8 or $9, maybe as high as $10. I had him pre-ranked at $12 so I figured I would get him easily. Wouldn't you know it, there was one other player who liked him too and felt the need for a 1B. So, together we cruised right past $12. I hesitated on $14, but figured it was worth it. He hesitated on $15, but did it. Curses... $16? Really? For Michael Cuddyer? Ugh.
So, I bid $16 and got the guy. I have him with a drop in average and a spike in home runs... Maybe .260 with 34 taters. If he does that, I'll be fine.
But, check it out... I was able to also get Kendrick at $14, Duda at only $1, and E5 for only $3 at the very end of the auction. So, for $34 I gave myself four excellent options at 1B, all with flexibility to play elsewhere. That is how you win leagues, my friends. Do what you have to here and there, but make sure you get value overall.
That, and positional flexibility. I can play matchups. Most days I will probably start three of those four guys, with obviously only one at 1B. I'm not locked into one $30 type like Paul Konerko who has to play every day no matter what.
I greatly prefer my way.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Consolidating Value vs. Spreading Risk
Consolidating value or spreading risk... You are probably doing a
version of one or the other in an auction league. You may gravitate to
one or the other in a snake-draft league, but the only real way to get
there is through trades.
Let's discuss.
Consolidating Value: Stars and Scrubs in an auction league. Executing 3-for-1 trades in any league. You want a handful of players that are so great you can afford to have junk everywhere else. The studs are guys you can rely on and you don't have to take them out of the lineup, ever. This gives you some breathing room with those guys and makes your team a little easier to manage. If you have Jose Bautista and Joey Votto, those dudes are never coming out of your lineup. Heck, Votto could go 5-for-5 with 2 HR's against Roy Halladay. Who knows? The rest of your team is basically replacement level, so that's fairly easy to manage as well.
With those replacement-level fill-ins I would recommend as many qualifying positions as possible. John Mayberry, Daniel Murphy, etc. Play the matchups.
Spreading Risk: This sort of team is one that has strong options everywhere, though you may not have those big time studs. This team requires more skill to pilot and more time in research. If you don't manage effectively you are going to leave a lot of value on the bench, which is obviously a losing situation.
Here, you'll want to pay close attention to split stats... Left/Right, Home/Away, etc. You'll also want to look at histories versus today's pitcher as well as park effects. Also, you'll want positional flexibility everywhere since you'll be doing a lot of swapping.
Also, one additional thought... Streaming pitchers. You may have one or two slots on either sort of team for this. Maybe two with your scrubs and only one where you have spread the risk. Streaming pitchers is a way to support your studs and also a way to spread risk so it has a purpose in both strategies.
Let's discuss.
Consolidating Value: Stars and Scrubs in an auction league. Executing 3-for-1 trades in any league. You want a handful of players that are so great you can afford to have junk everywhere else. The studs are guys you can rely on and you don't have to take them out of the lineup, ever. This gives you some breathing room with those guys and makes your team a little easier to manage. If you have Jose Bautista and Joey Votto, those dudes are never coming out of your lineup. Heck, Votto could go 5-for-5 with 2 HR's against Roy Halladay. Who knows? The rest of your team is basically replacement level, so that's fairly easy to manage as well.
With those replacement-level fill-ins I would recommend as many qualifying positions as possible. John Mayberry, Daniel Murphy, etc. Play the matchups.
Spreading Risk: This sort of team is one that has strong options everywhere, though you may not have those big time studs. This team requires more skill to pilot and more time in research. If you don't manage effectively you are going to leave a lot of value on the bench, which is obviously a losing situation.
Here, you'll want to pay close attention to split stats... Left/Right, Home/Away, etc. You'll also want to look at histories versus today's pitcher as well as park effects. Also, you'll want positional flexibility everywhere since you'll be doing a lot of swapping.
Also, one additional thought... Streaming pitchers. You may have one or two slots on either sort of team for this. Maybe two with your scrubs and only one where you have spread the risk. Streaming pitchers is a way to support your studs and also a way to spread risk so it has a purpose in both strategies.
OTP: Off-Topic Posts
Hello, folks... I just wanted to announce that I am going to be mixing in a few off-topic posts now and again. They won't be truly off-topic since they will always have something to do with baseball, football, or fantasy... They just may be more about my experiences and less about strategy.
I hope they prove to be entertaining reading and a way to spice up the blog. Thank you for reading!
I hope they prove to be entertaining reading and a way to spice up the blog. Thank you for reading!
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
FAABulous
There's a trend in fantasy sports that has emerged over the past few years - Free-Agent Acquisition Budget bidding, or FAAB for short. I've seen more and more leagues implementing it including half of my 2012 leagues, so it's worthwhile to explain what it is and how it can be used.
But first, the issue that it solves... All of the players that are not owned by someone have to be offered in some way to the fantasy managers in the league, unless you are in a league that does not allow any (or extremely limited) roster alterations. (Those leagues exist, though rare.) Sometimes unowned players are automatically free agents, though in almost all leagues there is some sort of waiver process where the unowned players can be viewed for a period of maybe 2 days (give or take) during which time claims are made on the player. The issue happens when multiple people want the same guy. How do you determine who receives the player?
Well, the most common is to have a rolling priority list. It usually starts in the reverse of the draft order, though I have seen it randomly determined or assigned based on the inverse of the standings the previous year. In this setup, if you want a player you have to have a better waiver priority. For example, if you are #6 on the list and one of your opponents also wants the same player you do, you would get the player if that opponent was #7 on the waiver list or worse. Your waiver priority would then drop to last and work it's way up as people ahead of you select players on waivers.
Quick Note: I'm avoiding the use of "higher" and "lower" when referring to waiver order because they mean different things to different people in this context... It is exactly like if you want the air conditioning to be colder. Do you turn it "up" or "down"? Um, how about you just go ahead and turn it colder. No confusion that way.
So anyway... The thing about the rolling wavier process is that there is a specific strategy associated with it. If you make it up to #1 or #2, should you grab a middling player and burn that asset or should you wait until someone more worthwhile becomes available?
There is also a process whereby the waiver order is continually reset. This is usually once a week in the inverse order of current standings. This allows the lower ranked teams to get better and create a more competitive league. This is very common in fantasy football, though it happens in baseball too. Usually in head-to-head leagues or weekly roster-set leagues.
The FAAB process was created to (almost entirely) replace the waiver order list. You get a budget of fictional dollars at the beginning of the year, like the dollars in an auction draft. When a player is put on waivers you have to put in a claim and assign a dollar figure to it. So, basically you have a shot at every available player and you have another resource to manage... which improves the reliance on skill.
One of my fantasy football friends hates the rolling waiver process since it allows players who aren't very good at fantasy football to luck into being more competitive. For example, if you have a terrible score in week one you could have ended up with Michael Vick in 2010. Or a couple years' prior, Matt Cassel when Tom Brady was injured in week one. That increases the luck factor. Maybe you had a playoff-caliber team anyway, and just had a terrible week one. Boom. Michael Vick. Championship.
By the way, I said that FAAB 'almost entirely' replaces the waiver list. I said this because the list is retained for the fairly rare occurrence when two or more players tie on their bid. For example, I just won Jake Arrieta for $7 and another player bid $5. If I had bid $5 I would have lost Arrieta based on my worse position on the waiver list.
Another wrinkle is that in leagues that have an auction draft and a FAAB process you can make the FAAB price equal their keeper value for the following year. That is the case for me with Arrieta. I'm likely not going to keep him for seven bucks, but if he is really good this year I might. It's a calculated risk.
It should also be noted that some leagues use $100 for FAAB and some others (including big ones like Tout Wars, I think) use $1,000 and still others use a different number. The number doesn't really matter too much, as long as it is consistent. I do like the fine-tuning you can do with bigger numbers, though. For example I may have bid $65 of a $1,000 budget on Arrieta and my opponent might have bid $54, instead of our $7 and $5 bids from our $100 budget. That would have left me with slightly more resources left over, though it ultimately doesn't matter too much.
The bottom line is that FAAB increases reliance on skill, increases the need to manage resources, and reduces the luck factor. Those are all things I can surely get behind.
But first, the issue that it solves... All of the players that are not owned by someone have to be offered in some way to the fantasy managers in the league, unless you are in a league that does not allow any (or extremely limited) roster alterations. (Those leagues exist, though rare.) Sometimes unowned players are automatically free agents, though in almost all leagues there is some sort of waiver process where the unowned players can be viewed for a period of maybe 2 days (give or take) during which time claims are made on the player. The issue happens when multiple people want the same guy. How do you determine who receives the player?
Well, the most common is to have a rolling priority list. It usually starts in the reverse of the draft order, though I have seen it randomly determined or assigned based on the inverse of the standings the previous year. In this setup, if you want a player you have to have a better waiver priority. For example, if you are #6 on the list and one of your opponents also wants the same player you do, you would get the player if that opponent was #7 on the waiver list or worse. Your waiver priority would then drop to last and work it's way up as people ahead of you select players on waivers.
Quick Note: I'm avoiding the use of "higher" and "lower" when referring to waiver order because they mean different things to different people in this context... It is exactly like if you want the air conditioning to be colder. Do you turn it "up" or "down"? Um, how about you just go ahead and turn it colder. No confusion that way.
So anyway... The thing about the rolling wavier process is that there is a specific strategy associated with it. If you make it up to #1 or #2, should you grab a middling player and burn that asset or should you wait until someone more worthwhile becomes available?
There is also a process whereby the waiver order is continually reset. This is usually once a week in the inverse order of current standings. This allows the lower ranked teams to get better and create a more competitive league. This is very common in fantasy football, though it happens in baseball too. Usually in head-to-head leagues or weekly roster-set leagues.
The FAAB process was created to (almost entirely) replace the waiver order list. You get a budget of fictional dollars at the beginning of the year, like the dollars in an auction draft. When a player is put on waivers you have to put in a claim and assign a dollar figure to it. So, basically you have a shot at every available player and you have another resource to manage... which improves the reliance on skill.
One of my fantasy football friends hates the rolling waiver process since it allows players who aren't very good at fantasy football to luck into being more competitive. For example, if you have a terrible score in week one you could have ended up with Michael Vick in 2010. Or a couple years' prior, Matt Cassel when Tom Brady was injured in week one. That increases the luck factor. Maybe you had a playoff-caliber team anyway, and just had a terrible week one. Boom. Michael Vick. Championship.
By the way, I said that FAAB 'almost entirely' replaces the waiver list. I said this because the list is retained for the fairly rare occurrence when two or more players tie on their bid. For example, I just won Jake Arrieta for $7 and another player bid $5. If I had bid $5 I would have lost Arrieta based on my worse position on the waiver list.
Another wrinkle is that in leagues that have an auction draft and a FAAB process you can make the FAAB price equal their keeper value for the following year. That is the case for me with Arrieta. I'm likely not going to keep him for seven bucks, but if he is really good this year I might. It's a calculated risk.
It should also be noted that some leagues use $100 for FAAB and some others (including big ones like Tout Wars, I think) use $1,000 and still others use a different number. The number doesn't really matter too much, as long as it is consistent. I do like the fine-tuning you can do with bigger numbers, though. For example I may have bid $65 of a $1,000 budget on Arrieta and my opponent might have bid $54, instead of our $7 and $5 bids from our $100 budget. That would have left me with slightly more resources left over, though it ultimately doesn't matter too much.
The bottom line is that FAAB increases reliance on skill, increases the need to manage resources, and reduces the luck factor. Those are all things I can surely get behind.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
WHUP
There are a couple of stats where mediocre fantasy players tend to lack focus. Heck, probably your above-average fantasy folks don't pay enough attention to them either. On the hitting side it is usually runs and on the pitching side it is definitely WHIP.
I suppose these are the stats that are talked about less in the real world. Besides, don't the other stats sort of drag these with them? I mean, if you have a decent batting average and you are hitting home runs, won't runs scored just sort of come with that?
And WHIP... it's hard to figure out. A lot of baseball sites don't even list it, so I have to go and calculate it every time. That's crazy! Can't we just get guys who pitch to a low ERA and strike fools out?
Nope. If you do that with your WHIP, you might as call it WHUP... 'cause you're going to get whupped by the competition. WHIP is where the big boys differentiate themselves. It is entirely possible to have a staff full of strikeout pitchers with 3.50 ERA's who post WHIP's in the 1.35-1.45 range. That's just not going to get it done.
So, make sure you find some sites that include it automatically for you. Even if (*gasp*) it isn't the same site your league is on. It's worth the effort.
And, the differences can be subtle so pay attention. If pitcher A is projected to have a 3.62 ERA with 180 K's but a 1.38 WHIP, just say "pass" and move on. There are other options, I promise.
I'd rather have pitcher B with a 3.78 ERA, 180 K's, and a 1.22 WHIP. It's subtle, but that is a huge difference in WHIP. The fact that you are dealing with a smaller number means the difference is magnified. (A change in the 1.3-ish number is almost three times more impactful than the change in the 3.7-ish number) So, in our example pitcher A and pitcher B are separated by 0.16 on both the ERA and the WHIP, with one favoring each pitcher. Take the lower WHIP. Every time.
I suppose these are the stats that are talked about less in the real world. Besides, don't the other stats sort of drag these with them? I mean, if you have a decent batting average and you are hitting home runs, won't runs scored just sort of come with that?
And WHIP... it's hard to figure out. A lot of baseball sites don't even list it, so I have to go and calculate it every time. That's crazy! Can't we just get guys who pitch to a low ERA and strike fools out?
Nope. If you do that with your WHIP, you might as call it WHUP... 'cause you're going to get whupped by the competition. WHIP is where the big boys differentiate themselves. It is entirely possible to have a staff full of strikeout pitchers with 3.50 ERA's who post WHIP's in the 1.35-1.45 range. That's just not going to get it done.
So, make sure you find some sites that include it automatically for you. Even if (*gasp*) it isn't the same site your league is on. It's worth the effort.
And, the differences can be subtle so pay attention. If pitcher A is projected to have a 3.62 ERA with 180 K's but a 1.38 WHIP, just say "pass" and move on. There are other options, I promise.
I'd rather have pitcher B with a 3.78 ERA, 180 K's, and a 1.22 WHIP. It's subtle, but that is a huge difference in WHIP. The fact that you are dealing with a smaller number means the difference is magnified. (A change in the 1.3-ish number is almost three times more impactful than the change in the 3.7-ish number) So, in our example pitcher A and pitcher B are separated by 0.16 on both the ERA and the WHIP, with one favoring each pitcher. Take the lower WHIP. Every time.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Your Team
Let's talk about your team. Not your fantasy team necessarily, your real-life team. If you are into fantasy baseball then you are probably a big fan of real baseball and all of the details and nuances... The tendencies of your pitchers, your hitters, your manager.
Over time you can really get a feel for your real-life team that other people just don't have. You live and die with these guys and sometimes it can feel like you know them so well that you can know what they are going to do before they do it. With this power comes a warning and a challenge.
The warning is to be cognizant of the fact that you probably overvalue the players on the team you cheer for. You're probably going to want to draft them before everyone else, pick them up as free agents before anyone else, trade for them, and not trade them away so easily. You love these guys. Nothing wrong with that.
However, if you value a player more than his real value just because you love to cheer for him then you've got a problem. This will damage your fantasy roster in many ways.
But, you can exploit your knowledge of your team if you are able to keep those valuations in check. One strong outing by a pitcher could tell the rest of the world that they should keep their eye on that guy. If that pitcher is on your team. that same outing could signal to you that he may have arrived, ready to fulfill his potential.
I'm from Baltimore originally and a big Orioles fan all of my life. Their first three games this year have all been wins with sparkling efforts in each game by their starter. Jake Arrieta, Tommy Hunter, and Jason Hammel are all available in almost every league. They all had fantastic season debuts.
I am looking at this logically and realizing that Hunter and Hammel are solid veteran guys who had their stuff going and are healthy and faced a bad team in the Minnesota Twins. They will regress to the mean, though I do expect them to have fairly solid seasons this year.
Arrieta on the other hand... The same may be true of him, but he is the Orioles' ace this year and he looked dominant on opening day. I am looking at that as a sign that he has earned an opportunity and is going to make the most of it. It is possible that he has in fact arrived and I am grabbing him in every league I can. He could be dominant this year for the Birds, we'll see. He has to keep it going with a start against the Yankees this week, so that will be a much greater measure of his abilities than his start against the Twins.
The problem is that if he does to the Yankees what he did to the Twins, he'll disappear from free agent lists everywhere. I need to use my knowledge of the team and this hunch to get in on the ground floor now. I suggest you do the same with the guys you know about. But, don't be afraid to quickly acknowledge when you are wrong. That is the real trick to this concept.
Over time you can really get a feel for your real-life team that other people just don't have. You live and die with these guys and sometimes it can feel like you know them so well that you can know what they are going to do before they do it. With this power comes a warning and a challenge.
The warning is to be cognizant of the fact that you probably overvalue the players on the team you cheer for. You're probably going to want to draft them before everyone else, pick them up as free agents before anyone else, trade for them, and not trade them away so easily. You love these guys. Nothing wrong with that.
However, if you value a player more than his real value just because you love to cheer for him then you've got a problem. This will damage your fantasy roster in many ways.
But, you can exploit your knowledge of your team if you are able to keep those valuations in check. One strong outing by a pitcher could tell the rest of the world that they should keep their eye on that guy. If that pitcher is on your team. that same outing could signal to you that he may have arrived, ready to fulfill his potential.
I'm from Baltimore originally and a big Orioles fan all of my life. Their first three games this year have all been wins with sparkling efforts in each game by their starter. Jake Arrieta, Tommy Hunter, and Jason Hammel are all available in almost every league. They all had fantastic season debuts.
I am looking at this logically and realizing that Hunter and Hammel are solid veteran guys who had their stuff going and are healthy and faced a bad team in the Minnesota Twins. They will regress to the mean, though I do expect them to have fairly solid seasons this year.
Arrieta on the other hand... The same may be true of him, but he is the Orioles' ace this year and he looked dominant on opening day. I am looking at that as a sign that he has earned an opportunity and is going to make the most of it. It is possible that he has in fact arrived and I am grabbing him in every league I can. He could be dominant this year for the Birds, we'll see. He has to keep it going with a start against the Yankees this week, so that will be a much greater measure of his abilities than his start against the Twins.
The problem is that if he does to the Yankees what he did to the Twins, he'll disappear from free agent lists everywhere. I need to use my knowledge of the team and this hunch to get in on the ground floor now. I suggest you do the same with the guys you know about. But, don't be afraid to quickly acknowledge when you are wrong. That is the real trick to this concept.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
I'm the #1 Expert
Hey, look at me! I'm in first place in the expert league! Only a couple of days into the season and I'm already dominating. I'm so awesome.
Okay, okay... I am actually in first place in the FSIC AL-Only Expert League, and since that may be the only time I'll ever be able to say it I thought I'd throw it out there. But that fact got me thinking, and there are some related phenomena that I would like to briefly discuss with you.
The baseball season is long. Really long. Unless you are in first place at the end of the year, it doesn't mean anything. Less than not anything.
We can get excited when we are at the top early on and we can get dejected if we are near the bottom early on. But listen, it doesn't mean anything. The great managers in fantasy baseball play the game whistle-to-whistle without stopping. It's not a complex thought, but it is an important one.
If you are in first place early on, be like the 1984 Tigers and go wire-to-wire. If you find yourself in a hole early on, plan to stage one of the great comebacks in league history.
Quick story for you. Two years ago I was in second place in my friends league with one day to go. I didn't stop playing with one day to go, but this story illustrates a point. I managed to fall from 2nd to 5th on the last day of the year. Crazy. The guy in 3rd place fell to 4th. Number 4 and 5 jumped up into the money on the very last day of the year, so the point here is that those guys never quit. And I love them for it.
If you ever think there isn't enough time in a roto season to make up ground, you're just wrong. There's always time. Run through the tape.
Okay, okay... I am actually in first place in the FSIC AL-Only Expert League, and since that may be the only time I'll ever be able to say it I thought I'd throw it out there. But that fact got me thinking, and there are some related phenomena that I would like to briefly discuss with you.
The baseball season is long. Really long. Unless you are in first place at the end of the year, it doesn't mean anything. Less than not anything.
We can get excited when we are at the top early on and we can get dejected if we are near the bottom early on. But listen, it doesn't mean anything. The great managers in fantasy baseball play the game whistle-to-whistle without stopping. It's not a complex thought, but it is an important one.
If you are in first place early on, be like the 1984 Tigers and go wire-to-wire. If you find yourself in a hole early on, plan to stage one of the great comebacks in league history.
Quick story for you. Two years ago I was in second place in my friends league with one day to go. I didn't stop playing with one day to go, but this story illustrates a point. I managed to fall from 2nd to 5th on the last day of the year. Crazy. The guy in 3rd place fell to 4th. Number 4 and 5 jumped up into the money on the very last day of the year, so the point here is that those guys never quit. And I love them for it.
If you ever think there isn't enough time in a roto season to make up ground, you're just wrong. There's always time. Run through the tape.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
LIFO
LIFO and FIFO are practices in accounting for managing inventory. "LIFO" stands for "Last in, first out." I'll let you take a wild guess at "FIFO."
When it comes to managing your inventory of assets on your fantasy roster you may start with a LIFO policy, but it shouldn't stay that way. It is likely that after your draft the most vulnerable player on your roster will be the guy you picked last or that $1 auction buy at the very end.
Inevitably there is a new closer (like Alfredo Aceves just yesterday) or some other hot player that you will want to add to your roster. If the games haven't been played yet and you are just dealing with injuries, you may in fact be dealing with a LIFO situation.
As the season evolves, you'll have to take a more critical eye. Pay attention to the rising and falling values of not just available players on the waiver wire, but also your own players. And, listen, everyone gets attached to their own stuff in life... it's human nature. But you, you've got to find a way to rise above and fairly evaluate the players on your own roster. Don't think more highly of them because you own them. Maybe you are a super genius and your players reflect that, but you will look like more of a super genius by making preemptive genius moves on your waiver wire.
The most critical point here is that sometimes how swiftly you can execute a free agent move is of utmost importance. If you have a rolling free agent process where free agents are immediately available once they clear waivers you'll need to be quick to grab guys when you hear good news about them. So, listen up, this may sound like a small thing... but you always have to know: Who is the first player to go? Who is ranked the lowest? Who has the longest value to your team as an asset? You may pick one pitcher and one hitter in baseball, but the bottom line is that you have to know who the weakest link is.
This will free you up to execute those free agent pickups quickly.
One last thought on this, my friends. When you start to think of one player on your roster as the weakest link the opposite of the "we all over-value our own stuff" rule can start to take root. You can start to think of that one player as junk that you are ready to throw away. Maybe he is, but you put him on your roster in the first place for a reason. The object here is to upgrade that slot, not just throw away an asset.
Best of luck with your free agent acquisitions this year. I'm sure we'll talk about FAAB in this space soon... so be on the lookout for that.
When it comes to managing your inventory of assets on your fantasy roster you may start with a LIFO policy, but it shouldn't stay that way. It is likely that after your draft the most vulnerable player on your roster will be the guy you picked last or that $1 auction buy at the very end.
Inevitably there is a new closer (like Alfredo Aceves just yesterday) or some other hot player that you will want to add to your roster. If the games haven't been played yet and you are just dealing with injuries, you may in fact be dealing with a LIFO situation.
As the season evolves, you'll have to take a more critical eye. Pay attention to the rising and falling values of not just available players on the waiver wire, but also your own players. And, listen, everyone gets attached to their own stuff in life... it's human nature. But you, you've got to find a way to rise above and fairly evaluate the players on your own roster. Don't think more highly of them because you own them. Maybe you are a super genius and your players reflect that, but you will look like more of a super genius by making preemptive genius moves on your waiver wire.
The most critical point here is that sometimes how swiftly you can execute a free agent move is of utmost importance. If you have a rolling free agent process where free agents are immediately available once they clear waivers you'll need to be quick to grab guys when you hear good news about them. So, listen up, this may sound like a small thing... but you always have to know: Who is the first player to go? Who is ranked the lowest? Who has the longest value to your team as an asset? You may pick one pitcher and one hitter in baseball, but the bottom line is that you have to know who the weakest link is.
This will free you up to execute those free agent pickups quickly.
One last thought on this, my friends. When you start to think of one player on your roster as the weakest link the opposite of the "we all over-value our own stuff" rule can start to take root. You can start to think of that one player as junk that you are ready to throw away. Maybe he is, but you put him on your roster in the first place for a reason. The object here is to upgrade that slot, not just throw away an asset.
Best of luck with your free agent acquisitions this year. I'm sure we'll talk about FAAB in this space soon... so be on the lookout for that.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Dominant Draft Design
There is this concept called "Dominant Design" that pops up in any industry that is creative or driven around a building or construction process. In the early stages of any of this kind of undertaking all sorts of ideas emerge about how to accomplish the task. Sometimes one of these plans is so clearly superior that it must be heralded as a "dominant design." This design goes on to be the standard in that realm and all other concepts whither away.
Today I'd like to talk about the dominant design in fantasy drafts and some of the things I have seen that have bucked the trend.
In an earlier post I talked about how fantasy football drafts tend to have two running backs, one quarterback, and two wide receivers in the first five rounds, in some order. In baseball, there is a common trend of taking "one of each." These are market inefficiencies that you can exploit.
It used to be that the only smart thing to do in football would be to take running backs with each of your top two picks. This was the dominant design of the day. It slowly crept into our minds that this might not be the best course. What if you took wide receivers with your first two picks? Well, you'd get the two best ones wouldn't you? What about grabbing Aaron Rodgers in the first round? He's pretty reliable, unlike most running backs.
Be on the lookout for these sorts of dominant designs. One plan in auction drafts is to go with "Stars and Scrubs," which is to say that you spend most of your money on big studs and then fill in with cheap filler guys. If everyone in your league is 'zigging' like this, I recommend that you start 'zagging.' How would you do that? It seems obvious that if most people are paying for those players worth $35 or more that there must be lots of value in the $8-$22 range. If you scoop up a bunch of those types do you know what is likely to happen? A couple of them will break out and perform like those $35+ players and the rest of them will dramatically out-produce the $1 and $4 guys on your competitors' rosters.
In one of my leagues this year there was a well-respected manager who decided to go all pitching for the first nine rounds. That is the exact opposite of what you are "supposed" to do. Pitching is deep, don't pay for saves, get your stud hitters before they are gone, blah blah blah... Needless to say, this guy's pitching is spectacular. His hitting is terrible on paper, but he has some high upside guys. Pitching is half of the scoring, so why not? We'll see if his plan works. It should be interesting.
I had a similar start to my AL-Only Expert league in FSIC this year. I mentioned it in my draft recap, but it's worth saying again... I was logged into two laptops and missed my first two picks. I got Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez with picks #10 and #11, so we'll see if going with pitching early is the new dominant design. Stay tuned.
Today I'd like to talk about the dominant design in fantasy drafts and some of the things I have seen that have bucked the trend.
In an earlier post I talked about how fantasy football drafts tend to have two running backs, one quarterback, and two wide receivers in the first five rounds, in some order. In baseball, there is a common trend of taking "one of each." These are market inefficiencies that you can exploit.
It used to be that the only smart thing to do in football would be to take running backs with each of your top two picks. This was the dominant design of the day. It slowly crept into our minds that this might not be the best course. What if you took wide receivers with your first two picks? Well, you'd get the two best ones wouldn't you? What about grabbing Aaron Rodgers in the first round? He's pretty reliable, unlike most running backs.
Be on the lookout for these sorts of dominant designs. One plan in auction drafts is to go with "Stars and Scrubs," which is to say that you spend most of your money on big studs and then fill in with cheap filler guys. If everyone in your league is 'zigging' like this, I recommend that you start 'zagging.' How would you do that? It seems obvious that if most people are paying for those players worth $35 or more that there must be lots of value in the $8-$22 range. If you scoop up a bunch of those types do you know what is likely to happen? A couple of them will break out and perform like those $35+ players and the rest of them will dramatically out-produce the $1 and $4 guys on your competitors' rosters.
In one of my leagues this year there was a well-respected manager who decided to go all pitching for the first nine rounds. That is the exact opposite of what you are "supposed" to do. Pitching is deep, don't pay for saves, get your stud hitters before they are gone, blah blah blah... Needless to say, this guy's pitching is spectacular. His hitting is terrible on paper, but he has some high upside guys. Pitching is half of the scoring, so why not? We'll see if his plan works. It should be interesting.
I had a similar start to my AL-Only Expert league in FSIC this year. I mentioned it in my draft recap, but it's worth saying again... I was logged into two laptops and missed my first two picks. I got Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez with picks #10 and #11, so we'll see if going with pitching early is the new dominant design. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Conventional Wisdom IV
Here we go with another installment of "Conventional Wisdom." As we have discussed previously, there are a lot of things that people widely believe about fantasy sports that may have a kernel of truth but are largely incorrect. Today we discuss: "Don't draft for wins."
This is a baseball concept with your pitching staff. The belief is that you cannot accurately project the number of wins that any given starter will accrue. They are just too random.
The kernel of truth is that you really can't, and shouldn't, peg a specific starter for a number of wins. I could tell you that I think CC Sabathia will get 21 wins this year, but there's something like a 95% chance I'd be wrong. However, if I told you that Sabathia would get between 18-22 wins this year I'd probably have about a 70% chance of being correct. That's gotta be worth something.
The larger point here is that if you throw out wins entirely you're going to be in trouble. In a typical 5x5 league wins count for 10% of your total score, of course... If you don't compete in any single category you're basically saying that you aren't competing for first place in the league. You may want to devalue wins in your projections, but you should still aim for the middle of the pack, which is completely doable. You don't have to win every category to win your league, but you have to put forth effort everywhere. You can afford to be middle of the pack in one or two categories and still win the league, but last place in a category is really, really hard to overcome.
Let's take another example - Felix Hernandez. He is in his prime and ought to be dominant once again in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. But wins? Unlikely. He'll probably get you between 12-16 wins. You can't specifically put him on, say, 13 wins but you can guess a likely range. You have to take this into account when drafting.
So, in our examples above Sabathia will dominate Hernandez in wins. Is that enough to draft him over Hernandez? Not necessarily, but it's good to have it in your mind. Using a likely range you can draft for wins, so Sabathia may be your guy. It is likely that King Felix will have a significant edge in ERA and WHIP, so he probably does beat Sabathia by a nose this year.
Okay, last thoughts on this. When you are drafting hitters it is fairly easy to keep an eye on whether you still need speed or power as you get closer to the halfway point in the draft. I suggest you do the same with wins. If your earlier picks in a draft are guys like Hernandez you are going to want to grab decent wins candidates later on. Maybe you can get a guy like Clay Buchholz or CJ Wilson fairly cheap later on. They play on good teams with good offenses so they should get their share of wins.
You may even take a gamble very late (last round or two) on a middle reliever with excellent peripherals who can "vulture" a handful of wins for you without hurting you anywhere. It costs you a late pick or $1 in an auction, plus the roster spot. It's the roster spot that is most important since there is an opportunity cost there, but you can put a strong middle reliever in your lineup every day while some of your starters are on rest days. (For example: In 2008 J.P. Howell pitched 89 innings and got you 6 wins, 92 strikeouts, 3 saves, and a 2.22 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. He helped everywhere and cost nothing. Picking the right guy is the real trick with this one. Howell was awful in 2007, so there was no reason to predict his numbers in 2008... so don't chase a wild goose.)
It's a good tactic that can pay dividends for you with a very small investment. These kind of small incremental improvements are what separate the great fantasy players from those that are just pretty good.
This is a baseball concept with your pitching staff. The belief is that you cannot accurately project the number of wins that any given starter will accrue. They are just too random.
The kernel of truth is that you really can't, and shouldn't, peg a specific starter for a number of wins. I could tell you that I think CC Sabathia will get 21 wins this year, but there's something like a 95% chance I'd be wrong. However, if I told you that Sabathia would get between 18-22 wins this year I'd probably have about a 70% chance of being correct. That's gotta be worth something.
The larger point here is that if you throw out wins entirely you're going to be in trouble. In a typical 5x5 league wins count for 10% of your total score, of course... If you don't compete in any single category you're basically saying that you aren't competing for first place in the league. You may want to devalue wins in your projections, but you should still aim for the middle of the pack, which is completely doable. You don't have to win every category to win your league, but you have to put forth effort everywhere. You can afford to be middle of the pack in one or two categories and still win the league, but last place in a category is really, really hard to overcome.
Let's take another example - Felix Hernandez. He is in his prime and ought to be dominant once again in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. But wins? Unlikely. He'll probably get you between 12-16 wins. You can't specifically put him on, say, 13 wins but you can guess a likely range. You have to take this into account when drafting.
So, in our examples above Sabathia will dominate Hernandez in wins. Is that enough to draft him over Hernandez? Not necessarily, but it's good to have it in your mind. Using a likely range you can draft for wins, so Sabathia may be your guy. It is likely that King Felix will have a significant edge in ERA and WHIP, so he probably does beat Sabathia by a nose this year.
Okay, last thoughts on this. When you are drafting hitters it is fairly easy to keep an eye on whether you still need speed or power as you get closer to the halfway point in the draft. I suggest you do the same with wins. If your earlier picks in a draft are guys like Hernandez you are going to want to grab decent wins candidates later on. Maybe you can get a guy like Clay Buchholz or CJ Wilson fairly cheap later on. They play on good teams with good offenses so they should get their share of wins.
You may even take a gamble very late (last round or two) on a middle reliever with excellent peripherals who can "vulture" a handful of wins for you without hurting you anywhere. It costs you a late pick or $1 in an auction, plus the roster spot. It's the roster spot that is most important since there is an opportunity cost there, but you can put a strong middle reliever in your lineup every day while some of your starters are on rest days. (For example: In 2008 J.P. Howell pitched 89 innings and got you 6 wins, 92 strikeouts, 3 saves, and a 2.22 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. He helped everywhere and cost nothing. Picking the right guy is the real trick with this one. Howell was awful in 2007, so there was no reason to predict his numbers in 2008... so don't chase a wild goose.)
It's a good tactic that can pay dividends for you with a very small investment. These kind of small incremental improvements are what separate the great fantasy players from those that are just pretty good.
Monday, April 2, 2012
My Friends League
On Saturday morning we had the fourth annual auction draft with my friends from around the country, many of whom don't know each other. It always trips me out to have my friends from various stages of my past conversing with one another and playing fantasy baseball together. I highly recommend it.
Anyway, it is a $260 budget auction with 12 teams and four keepers. Standard 5x5 mixed-league fare. Our keepers get a $5 raise each year and can only be kept twice.
So, this is my last year with Robinson Cano. Good thing he's winning the MVP this year. I've got him as a keeper at $32 and Clayton Kershaw at $23. Matt Wieters at $14 (no real value there) and Cameron Maybin at $6 are my other two. Expensive keepers this year... It's the opposite situation from my semi-dynasty league. Instead of having the second-most money I had the second-least.
So, I let the guys bid away early on. I monitored the values that dudes were going for, but I didn't feel like I needed to go too far into the water. I did grab Dan Haren for $24, so I like how my pitching staff was starting out.
My next buy was Joe Nathan for $8. I am not in love with this pick... I felt like he would go for $10-ish so I was price-enforcing at $8. I got stuck. It's not so much the price as the roster slot... I'd rather have a lot of other closers that went for less than $8. Javy Guerra, Sean Marshall, etc. Oh well. Maybe the old guy has something left in the tank. I'm debating whether to stash Mike Adams, but roster spots are at a premium.
I noticed that a fair amount of third basemen had been taken or kept and there were a diminishing supply of really good ones, so I took the tactic of nominating the ones I didn't want. Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez... then, when Brett Lawrie came up I was able to get him for $20. I believe that is a steal.
What wasn't a steal was $18 for Howard Kendrick, but I had to have him. I ended up with a bunch of Angels, actually... Erick Aybar for $18, Jordan Walden for $9, Haren, Kendrick.
I added a couple other closers later, working my Rhombus theory (see: "The Rhombus" post on this blog). I got four guys of roughly equal value, adding Huston Street for $11 and being able to grab Javy Guerra for $7. SoCal in the house.
On the hitting side, I had a crazy period of time where I totally believed in Michael Cuddyer and bid him all the way up to $16. Kind of crazy. I felt better, though, when I scooped Billy Butler for $14, Shin-Soo Choo for $17, and Lucas Duda for $3. Who knows, maybe Cuddyer gets back his power stroke with a new organizational philosophy and the thin air a mile up in the mountains.
At the end of the draft I had kept back a few bucks and grabbed Jesus Montero for $2 when the guy who nominated him looked away for a minute. My last pick was Edwin Encarnacion for $3. Not a bad gamble as a backup at 1B and 3B... good lineup, good park.
Late in the draft I looked at the starters left and realized that I probably needed two more. The way the money was going I thought I could probably get the two I wanted for about $14-$18 total. I wanted Jaime Garcia and Brandon Morrow. Unfortunately when Garcia came up for bid the software (or more likely my laptop or the WiFi at Caribou) stopped recognizing my clicks. In a fit of panic I clicked the "bid" button at least 20 times in a row, but it didn't register and I lost Garcia. Then, Wandy Rodriguez came up for bid. My clicks then started to register... I'm sitting at Caribou Coffee saying, "no no no no no...." I decided to try to hit the "pass" button. Didn't work. I got Wandy for $6. Next up: Ervin Santana. My bids are still coming through. I bid him all the way up to $9 but fortunately my buddy Kelly went to $10. Next up: Morrow. Yes! My guy... at least I'll get one. Nope. It was at this time that my click of "pass" processed. Argh!!
However, there is a bright side. I took a look at Wandy's stats and I gotta tell you, he's been pretty good the past few years. K/9 of 8.2 over the past three years, reliable ERA around 3.50. That said, he has been slowly declining, had a terrible Spring, his WHIP should be at least 1.30, and he is past his prime at the age of 33. Plus, he's not going to win any games in Houston. 12, maybe? So, is a 12-win, 170 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP guy worth $6? Yeah, I guess so.
But get this, my replacement for losing out on Brandon Morrow? Another Brandon - Brandon McCarthy for only $1. Not bad! I really like McCarthy this year, almost as much as Morrow. So, maybe I can work a deal with the guy who lost out on Montero, but I don't mind my team.
I think I'll finish around 4th place. I like the team, but I don't love it... Here it is in a snapshot:
C - Wieters
1B - Cuddyer
2B - Cano
SS - Aybar
3B - Lawrie
OF - Choo
OF - Kendrick
OF - Maybin
Util - Butler
Bench - Montero
Bench - Duda
Bench - Encarnacion
SP - Kershaw
SP - Haren
SP - McCarthy
SP - Stauffer
SP - Wandy
RP - Guerra
RP - Nathan
RP - Walden
RP - Street
Let me know what you think... Is this a better team than I am giving it credit for?
Anyway, it is a $260 budget auction with 12 teams and four keepers. Standard 5x5 mixed-league fare. Our keepers get a $5 raise each year and can only be kept twice.
So, this is my last year with Robinson Cano. Good thing he's winning the MVP this year. I've got him as a keeper at $32 and Clayton Kershaw at $23. Matt Wieters at $14 (no real value there) and Cameron Maybin at $6 are my other two. Expensive keepers this year... It's the opposite situation from my semi-dynasty league. Instead of having the second-most money I had the second-least.
So, I let the guys bid away early on. I monitored the values that dudes were going for, but I didn't feel like I needed to go too far into the water. I did grab Dan Haren for $24, so I like how my pitching staff was starting out.
My next buy was Joe Nathan for $8. I am not in love with this pick... I felt like he would go for $10-ish so I was price-enforcing at $8. I got stuck. It's not so much the price as the roster slot... I'd rather have a lot of other closers that went for less than $8. Javy Guerra, Sean Marshall, etc. Oh well. Maybe the old guy has something left in the tank. I'm debating whether to stash Mike Adams, but roster spots are at a premium.
I noticed that a fair amount of third basemen had been taken or kept and there were a diminishing supply of really good ones, so I took the tactic of nominating the ones I didn't want. Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez... then, when Brett Lawrie came up I was able to get him for $20. I believe that is a steal.
What wasn't a steal was $18 for Howard Kendrick, but I had to have him. I ended up with a bunch of Angels, actually... Erick Aybar for $18, Jordan Walden for $9, Haren, Kendrick.
I added a couple other closers later, working my Rhombus theory (see: "The Rhombus" post on this blog). I got four guys of roughly equal value, adding Huston Street for $11 and being able to grab Javy Guerra for $7. SoCal in the house.
On the hitting side, I had a crazy period of time where I totally believed in Michael Cuddyer and bid him all the way up to $16. Kind of crazy. I felt better, though, when I scooped Billy Butler for $14, Shin-Soo Choo for $17, and Lucas Duda for $3. Who knows, maybe Cuddyer gets back his power stroke with a new organizational philosophy and the thin air a mile up in the mountains.
At the end of the draft I had kept back a few bucks and grabbed Jesus Montero for $2 when the guy who nominated him looked away for a minute. My last pick was Edwin Encarnacion for $3. Not a bad gamble as a backup at 1B and 3B... good lineup, good park.
Late in the draft I looked at the starters left and realized that I probably needed two more. The way the money was going I thought I could probably get the two I wanted for about $14-$18 total. I wanted Jaime Garcia and Brandon Morrow. Unfortunately when Garcia came up for bid the software (or more likely my laptop or the WiFi at Caribou) stopped recognizing my clicks. In a fit of panic I clicked the "bid" button at least 20 times in a row, but it didn't register and I lost Garcia. Then, Wandy Rodriguez came up for bid. My clicks then started to register... I'm sitting at Caribou Coffee saying, "no no no no no...." I decided to try to hit the "pass" button. Didn't work. I got Wandy for $6. Next up: Ervin Santana. My bids are still coming through. I bid him all the way up to $9 but fortunately my buddy Kelly went to $10. Next up: Morrow. Yes! My guy... at least I'll get one. Nope. It was at this time that my click of "pass" processed. Argh!!
However, there is a bright side. I took a look at Wandy's stats and I gotta tell you, he's been pretty good the past few years. K/9 of 8.2 over the past three years, reliable ERA around 3.50. That said, he has been slowly declining, had a terrible Spring, his WHIP should be at least 1.30, and he is past his prime at the age of 33. Plus, he's not going to win any games in Houston. 12, maybe? So, is a 12-win, 170 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP guy worth $6? Yeah, I guess so.
But get this, my replacement for losing out on Brandon Morrow? Another Brandon - Brandon McCarthy for only $1. Not bad! I really like McCarthy this year, almost as much as Morrow. So, maybe I can work a deal with the guy who lost out on Montero, but I don't mind my team.
I think I'll finish around 4th place. I like the team, but I don't love it... Here it is in a snapshot:
C - Wieters
1B - Cuddyer
2B - Cano
SS - Aybar
3B - Lawrie
OF - Choo
OF - Kendrick
OF - Maybin
Util - Butler
Bench - Montero
Bench - Duda
Bench - Encarnacion
SP - Kershaw
SP - Haren
SP - McCarthy
SP - Stauffer
SP - Wandy
RP - Guerra
RP - Nathan
RP - Walden
RP - Street
Let me know what you think... Is this a better team than I am giving it credit for?
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