I've been hearing industry experts lately talking about how they might like a certain player but wouldn't consider taking him as their "number one." What do they mean by that? And... Is it a valid consideration?
Before I reject the concept completely, allow me to try to explain what the sentiment means and why people say it. What most people mean when they say that they like a player but not as their #1 is that there is significant risk associated with the player. And, to follow the logic, if a player is risky than you shouldn't be basing the success of a particular position on someone with so much downside. It is important to build a foundation at each position with at least one dependable veteran who you know you can pencil in for certain numbers each week.
Fair enough. Now I will reject the concept completely.
The risk factor of each player should be factored into their ranking. It should be your goal to collect players of the highest possible ranking all across your roster. I may be in the minority here, but the goal in fantasy football is not to play it safe. It's easy to finish in the middle of the pack, but you need to give yourself a chance to win every week... You do that by gathering as much firepower as you can.
You may crash and burn, but it will be exciting. And, you may just win it all. You don't win it all by playing it safe. Not without a ton of luck, and that's not much fun at all.
The other thing is this: Risky players slide down draft boards. You can often scoop up multiple risky players and give yourself a bunch of high-potential options instead of being stuck with boring, mediocre players that are "safe."
The concept of ranking one player above another but somehow being unwilling to select the higher-ranked player because he doesn't qualify to anchor your position is insane. You're telling me that you'll draft Reggie Wayne ahead of Dez Bryant because you just wouldn't trust Bryant as your "Number One"? Insane.
Listen, you ranked Dez ahead of Wayne because he is in a better position to get you more points in 2012. Draft him that way. Don't look past him to Reggie Wayne because you've waited on wide receivers and you need a safe veteran to anchor the position for you. Dez will be better than Wayne this year, draft him as such.
And, for crying out loud... Do your own rankings. Okay, maybe not exhaustive rankings... but you can at least compile a composite ranking list from multiple sources. Maybe just the first six rounds (60 in a 10-team league and 72 for 12 teams).
Then, be true to your list. If nothing else it'll make you cool and calm for the first and most important part of your draft(s) this year.
Easy-to-use fantasy sports strategy. That's what we are all about here at the Brain. Join fantasy sports veteran and former ESPN Producer Dave McKay as we reveal new ways to think about the game. @TalktotheBrain
Monday, June 25, 2012
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Medium Sample Size
Are you as sick of the phrase "small sample size" as I am? Somehow everyone has become some kind of sports scientist all of the sudden. What's the deal with that phrase?
Okay, I get it... We shouldn't get all worked up when someone does something over a short period of time. Cool. But how about 40% of the season? Seems like a great time to get all worked up.
As I talked about in my last post, there really are times to buy high and sell low. 40% of the way into the season is just that time, if you have reasons for it. Don't just dump a guy like Adrian Gonzalez because he's only hit 5 home runs and his OPS+ has shrunk from the 156 it was last year to only 90 this year.
Nah, instead try to trade him for a quality replacement because he had a BABIP of .380 last year and really doesn't seem to be turning it around this year. He's become a doubles hitter. That happens to right handed hitters in Fenway all the time, but lefties? What's the deal? I don't know, but I'm trading him for Chris Davis and Tom Wilhelmsen if I own him.
Most of you are somewhere in the middle of the pack in your league. That's just math. You've got to start making some moves to try to improve your areas of weakness, so that may mean sacrificing some good players for ones that will help you in categories where you are weak.
Go and take a look at the detailed standings. You're probably in the bottom 2 or 3 in a couple of those statistics, so those are ideal targets for improvement. (Obviously.) Look, it's a long season and mental fatigue can start to settle in right about now. Don't let it! Take charge of your team when your competitors are starting to fade in the noggin. Now is the time where champions are made.
And remember, your standings are really just a 40% sample size at this point. Even if you are in 5th place you can make up ground. I went from 9th to 3rd in my league with friends just in the past 10 days. I did it by focusing on the areas where I needed help - wins, runs, and stolen bases.
Go and do the same. Here's a simple process for you:
That said, one also obvious caveat... See if you can trade Morse first. You probably have a more droppable resource.
Have fun with it.
And, by "fun" I mean watching your team climb the standings through the summer months. Good times.
Okay, I get it... We shouldn't get all worked up when someone does something over a short period of time. Cool. But how about 40% of the season? Seems like a great time to get all worked up.
As I talked about in my last post, there really are times to buy high and sell low. 40% of the way into the season is just that time, if you have reasons for it. Don't just dump a guy like Adrian Gonzalez because he's only hit 5 home runs and his OPS+ has shrunk from the 156 it was last year to only 90 this year.
Nah, instead try to trade him for a quality replacement because he had a BABIP of .380 last year and really doesn't seem to be turning it around this year. He's become a doubles hitter. That happens to right handed hitters in Fenway all the time, but lefties? What's the deal? I don't know, but I'm trading him for Chris Davis and Tom Wilhelmsen if I own him.
Most of you are somewhere in the middle of the pack in your league. That's just math. You've got to start making some moves to try to improve your areas of weakness, so that may mean sacrificing some good players for ones that will help you in categories where you are weak.
Go and take a look at the detailed standings. You're probably in the bottom 2 or 3 in a couple of those statistics, so those are ideal targets for improvement. (Obviously.) Look, it's a long season and mental fatigue can start to settle in right about now. Don't let it! Take charge of your team when your competitors are starting to fade in the noggin. Now is the time where champions are made.
And remember, your standings are really just a 40% sample size at this point. Even if you are in 5th place you can make up ground. I went from 9th to 3rd in my league with friends just in the past 10 days. I did it by focusing on the areas where I needed help - wins, runs, and stolen bases.
Go and do the same. Here's a simple process for you:
- Look at the expanded standings and identify areas of biggest potential improvement
- See if there is a match for what you need on the waiver wire
- Look for redundant resources on your roster
- Identify a trading partner who matches well with your needs and in return needs what you can supply
- Don't worry about "winning the trade"... They are going to have to get what they need to do the deal and they probably aren't thinking as critically about it as you are
That said, one also obvious caveat... See if you can trade Morse first. You probably have a more droppable resource.
Have fun with it.
And, by "fun" I mean watching your team climb the standings through the summer months. Good times.
Monday, June 18, 2012
Roster Rot: Buy High, Sell Low
So, we're about 66 games into the baseball season. That works out to more than 40% of the season. At this point most players have shown what they are probably going to be this year.
That includes successful seasons and disastrous seasons, and also promise and warning. You may have guys on your roster that are just not living up to their potential or aren't doing what they normally do. They aren't performing but they are too valuable to just dump for less than what they are worth.
Let me ask you something, though: Is it better to get 50 cents on the dollar now or continue to suffer with them and chew up a roster spot for no value? Go ahead and sell low. It's okay. (Sometimes... I'll explain.)
There is no better player to look at this year in this regard than Tim Lincecum. Sure, he's only 28 years old and has a significant track record of eye-popping stats. But look at his numbers this year. He has been charged with 4 earned runs or more in 10 out of 14 starts this year... Plus, 2 or more walks in 11 of 14 starts. He isn't commanding the ball like in the past.
The terrible thing is that the strikeouts are still there for him and he doesn't seem to be injured. He's pitched at least 5 innings in 12 of 14 starts. He's had a ton of bad starts, but only one has been close to complete disaster. He's just getting tagged for more than one hit per inning with two or more walks per outing. He's just sitting there, rotting on your roster. Taking up space.
Who knows why, but you can't just keep holding on to him. Go ahead and ship him out for Lucas Duda or Trevor Plouffe. You'll feel better.
On the flip side, there are some guys out there who seem to really be coming into their own, including a classic post-hype guy like Chris Davis. This guy is only 26 years old and in his career he completely lit up minor league pitching to the tune of a .318 average and a .971 OPS. And nobody believes he can hit for average because he didn't do it in the show at age 25 or 24 or 23. Even though he hasn't done much at the major league level his numbers have been trending up for a couple of years now, and this is the first time he's ever been a clear starter in the bigs. He's currently hitting .294 with 12 HR's in 211 AB's. I don't expect that to stop. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him accelerate a bit as the weather heats up in Baltimore. His left-handed power plays perfectly for Camden Yards. I would not be surprised to seem him hit over .300 for the year with more than 30 HR's (My prediction: .308 with 34 HR.)
Everyone preaches "buy low and sell high"... Well, Chris Davis is the perfect "buy high" candidate. The current owner in your league is expecting him to come to earth sometime soon and may be looking to "sell high." You're going to have to make a strong offer to get him, but why not? Give it a shot, especially if you are stuck in the middle of your league standings.
Now is the time to make some bold moves. You can hang around 5th place in your league until the end or you can make an effort to jump up now while there is still time for the moves to pay off over a significant (~60%) amount of the season.
That includes successful seasons and disastrous seasons, and also promise and warning. You may have guys on your roster that are just not living up to their potential or aren't doing what they normally do. They aren't performing but they are too valuable to just dump for less than what they are worth.
Let me ask you something, though: Is it better to get 50 cents on the dollar now or continue to suffer with them and chew up a roster spot for no value? Go ahead and sell low. It's okay. (Sometimes... I'll explain.)
There is no better player to look at this year in this regard than Tim Lincecum. Sure, he's only 28 years old and has a significant track record of eye-popping stats. But look at his numbers this year. He has been charged with 4 earned runs or more in 10 out of 14 starts this year... Plus, 2 or more walks in 11 of 14 starts. He isn't commanding the ball like in the past.
The terrible thing is that the strikeouts are still there for him and he doesn't seem to be injured. He's pitched at least 5 innings in 12 of 14 starts. He's had a ton of bad starts, but only one has been close to complete disaster. He's just getting tagged for more than one hit per inning with two or more walks per outing. He's just sitting there, rotting on your roster. Taking up space.
Who knows why, but you can't just keep holding on to him. Go ahead and ship him out for Lucas Duda or Trevor Plouffe. You'll feel better.
On the flip side, there are some guys out there who seem to really be coming into their own, including a classic post-hype guy like Chris Davis. This guy is only 26 years old and in his career he completely lit up minor league pitching to the tune of a .318 average and a .971 OPS. And nobody believes he can hit for average because he didn't do it in the show at age 25 or 24 or 23. Even though he hasn't done much at the major league level his numbers have been trending up for a couple of years now, and this is the first time he's ever been a clear starter in the bigs. He's currently hitting .294 with 12 HR's in 211 AB's. I don't expect that to stop. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him accelerate a bit as the weather heats up in Baltimore. His left-handed power plays perfectly for Camden Yards. I would not be surprised to seem him hit over .300 for the year with more than 30 HR's (My prediction: .308 with 34 HR.)
Everyone preaches "buy low and sell high"... Well, Chris Davis is the perfect "buy high" candidate. The current owner in your league is expecting him to come to earth sometime soon and may be looking to "sell high." You're going to have to make a strong offer to get him, but why not? Give it a shot, especially if you are stuck in the middle of your league standings.
Now is the time to make some bold moves. You can hang around 5th place in your league until the end or you can make an effort to jump up now while there is still time for the moves to pay off over a significant (~60%) amount of the season.
Thursday, June 14, 2012
BrainDrain: FF Busts
I'd like to start a new series here on FSB... Something I'm calling "BrainDrain." The idea is to create a list of thoughts on a specific topic and get input from you. A corporate stream of consciousness.
I'd love for you all to comment in the comments section or, better yet, start a thread over on the forums at www.fantasysmacktalk.com to discuss.
So, for the first one... Let's talk about busts for fantasy football in 2012:
QB: Peyton Manning - Everyone seems to be back on the bandwagon this year. I've got some issues, though. (1) He's supposed to be having trouble with velocity on his deep ball; (2)Who is he throwing to? Demaryius Thomas could continue to emerge and Eric Decker is there... but I'll believe it when I see it; (3) Do you trust their running game to take pressure off of Manning?
WR: Reggie Wayne - He got a lot of money to stay in Indy and he's got the #1 overall pick throwing him the ball after the debacle that was 2011 Colts quarterbacking... He's got to bounce back, right? If he can go for 75 catches and 960 yards in that situation, how good will he be with Andrew Luck? Yeah, yeah... maybe. If he slips a few rounds maybe you roll the dice, but believe you me, that's what it is. He'll be 34 this year, the Colts' running game is terrible, Andrew Luck is a rookie, and the offensive line isn't very inspiring. If he gets drafted in the 4th or 5th round it won't be by me.
RB: Matt Forte - He's still going late 1st or early 2nd this year. The Bears have brought in Michael Bush and Forte is still holding out. Even if he signs, which is no guarantee, he'll be in a timeshare. Additionally, even Jay Cutler is talking about how poor their offensive line is. Plus, they brought in Brandon Marshall and you gotta think they are going to spend more time on the passing game this year.
TE: Tony Gonzalez - Everyone is talking about his fountain of youth. Last year was nice to see him as as productive as he was, actually right around his career averages. But at the age of 36, I just don't want to bet that it continues this year. He has to fall off the cliff at some point. Plus, there may not be enough balls to go around with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Harry Douglas out wide. Also, playing another season on the turf can't be good for his knees.
Okay,that's one of each... Who are your busts this year? Go over to http://www.fantasysmacktalk.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=85 and get the discussion going.
I'd love for you all to comment in the comments section or, better yet, start a thread over on the forums at www.fantasysmacktalk.com to discuss.
So, for the first one... Let's talk about busts for fantasy football in 2012:
QB: Peyton Manning - Everyone seems to be back on the bandwagon this year. I've got some issues, though. (1) He's supposed to be having trouble with velocity on his deep ball; (2)Who is he throwing to? Demaryius Thomas could continue to emerge and Eric Decker is there... but I'll believe it when I see it; (3) Do you trust their running game to take pressure off of Manning?
WR: Reggie Wayne - He got a lot of money to stay in Indy and he's got the #1 overall pick throwing him the ball after the debacle that was 2011 Colts quarterbacking... He's got to bounce back, right? If he can go for 75 catches and 960 yards in that situation, how good will he be with Andrew Luck? Yeah, yeah... maybe. If he slips a few rounds maybe you roll the dice, but believe you me, that's what it is. He'll be 34 this year, the Colts' running game is terrible, Andrew Luck is a rookie, and the offensive line isn't very inspiring. If he gets drafted in the 4th or 5th round it won't be by me.
RB: Matt Forte - He's still going late 1st or early 2nd this year. The Bears have brought in Michael Bush and Forte is still holding out. Even if he signs, which is no guarantee, he'll be in a timeshare. Additionally, even Jay Cutler is talking about how poor their offensive line is. Plus, they brought in Brandon Marshall and you gotta think they are going to spend more time on the passing game this year.
TE: Tony Gonzalez - Everyone is talking about his fountain of youth. Last year was nice to see him as as productive as he was, actually right around his career averages. But at the age of 36, I just don't want to bet that it continues this year. He has to fall off the cliff at some point. Plus, there may not be enough balls to go around with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Harry Douglas out wide. Also, playing another season on the turf can't be good for his knees.
Okay,that's one of each... Who are your busts this year? Go over to http://www.fantasysmacktalk.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=85 and get the discussion going.
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Supply and Demand
I've been thinking a lot about the upcoming football season and the various ways that experts have talked about how to draft a football roster.
Not that many years ago the prevailing wisdom was always to draft running backs with your first two picks and then go after wide receivers, maybe mix in a stud quarterback. The past few years that has really changed and we are regularly seeing the top quarterbacks and wide receivers being taken in the first round.
And this year... *gasp*... we may even have a tight end in the first round.
So, I've been thinking about this and why it is so. Why was it so smart to grab RB's and then WR's a few years ago and now people are grabbing studs at other positions?
The answer - two schools of thought:
To be sure not all of these guys are fantasy-worthy, but let's look at these numbers from a supply and demand standpoint.
Let's say you have a 12-team fantasy league. In that league you are going to want one solid QB, three strong RB's, three good WR's, one quality TE, plus your D/ST, a K, and a bunch of guys to fill out your bench. I realize I listed a total of six guys at RB and WR for five starting positions (including Flex), but the fact that you need five starters makes bye weeks and injuries a much bigger deal... you'll need six studs (and a strong bench) for those five spots.
So, the top 12 QB's out of 32 NFL starters will start in your league week to week. Same for TE's. That works out to 37.5% of the NFL starters at QB and TE getting the start in your league each week. (D/ST and K, too.) I'll be the first to admit that having one of the best at these positions is an advantage, but not nearly as much as you might think. Often #5 and #15 are only separated by a point or two per week. Why not take assets that are more scarce early in your draft and wait until later in to grab a QB and a TE in the #10 range?
My plan on QB's is to take two back-to-back. I got Matthew Stafford in just about every league last year doing this. It was pretty common to be able to go Sam Bradford and Stafford in rounds 7/8 or even 8/9. This year I'm thinking maybe Josh Freeman and Jay Cutler... I don't know. Haven't done my rankings and projections yet, but I do like the value of those two in 2012.
If we look at WR's, your league will need 36 of the 64-ish starting players. So, about 56% of the starting NFL wide receivers will start week-to-week in your league.
At RB, the supply and demand situation gets crazy... Your league needs to start 36 of the 32 NFL "starters" each week. Let that sink in. If there is one quality RB per NFL team on average (and, yes, I realize that it's more like 40 or so) than this league is over-subscribed... The league needs 112.5% of the available resource in the starting lineup each week. And that's before the bye weeks hit.
And now you know why all of the experts used to say that you have to go RB-RB in the first two rounds.
And now you also know why so many backup running backs get started in your fantasy leagues. Usually by the guy that went QB-WR-TE with his first three picks.
And, good news, with the philosophy changing recently the top RB's are slipping. In one of my money leagues last year I got Ray Rice at #9 (nine!) and grabbed Darren McFadden in the second round. Crazy! I won the league. (That was one of the leagues that I took Stafford late.)
However, that brings me to the point about Risk and Reward and why drafting philosophies have changed. Run DMC got hurt. Lots of RB's get hurt. It's much more risky to take an RB early than just about any other position.
Besides, who would you rather draft at #5 overall this year - Ryan Mathews or Aaron Rodgers? Yep. There's maybe a 40% chance that Mathews gets hurt and probably 10% (at worst) that Rodgers misses significant time. After all, you can't win your league in the first round... but you can lose it. (Which may or may not be true. One of my first posts in this space was about that concept... what is true about it and what is not.)
But let me just say for the record here that playing it safe will guarantee you to have a relatively fun and competitive year, but you won't dominate and your chances of winning it all will be primarily luck-based. True, there is a ton of luck in fantasy football and there is a slight chance that you may win your league on luck.
Frankly, I'd rather take the scarce resource early, draft bench backups early, and roll with that kind of luck.
Not that many years ago the prevailing wisdom was always to draft running backs with your first two picks and then go after wide receivers, maybe mix in a stud quarterback. The past few years that has really changed and we are regularly seeing the top quarterbacks and wide receivers being taken in the first round.
And this year... *gasp*... we may even have a tight end in the first round.
So, I've been thinking about this and why it is so. Why was it so smart to grab RB's and then WR's a few years ago and now people are grabbing studs at other positions?
The answer - two schools of thought:
- Supply and Demand
- Risk and Reward
- 1 x QB
- 2 x RB
- 2 x WR
- 1 x Flex (RB/WR)
- 1 x TE
- 1 x D/ST
- 1 x K
To be sure not all of these guys are fantasy-worthy, but let's look at these numbers from a supply and demand standpoint.
Let's say you have a 12-team fantasy league. In that league you are going to want one solid QB, three strong RB's, three good WR's, one quality TE, plus your D/ST, a K, and a bunch of guys to fill out your bench. I realize I listed a total of six guys at RB and WR for five starting positions (including Flex), but the fact that you need five starters makes bye weeks and injuries a much bigger deal... you'll need six studs (and a strong bench) for those five spots.
So, the top 12 QB's out of 32 NFL starters will start in your league week to week. Same for TE's. That works out to 37.5% of the NFL starters at QB and TE getting the start in your league each week. (D/ST and K, too.) I'll be the first to admit that having one of the best at these positions is an advantage, but not nearly as much as you might think. Often #5 and #15 are only separated by a point or two per week. Why not take assets that are more scarce early in your draft and wait until later in to grab a QB and a TE in the #10 range?
My plan on QB's is to take two back-to-back. I got Matthew Stafford in just about every league last year doing this. It was pretty common to be able to go Sam Bradford and Stafford in rounds 7/8 or even 8/9. This year I'm thinking maybe Josh Freeman and Jay Cutler... I don't know. Haven't done my rankings and projections yet, but I do like the value of those two in 2012.
If we look at WR's, your league will need 36 of the 64-ish starting players. So, about 56% of the starting NFL wide receivers will start week-to-week in your league.
At RB, the supply and demand situation gets crazy... Your league needs to start 36 of the 32 NFL "starters" each week. Let that sink in. If there is one quality RB per NFL team on average (and, yes, I realize that it's more like 40 or so) than this league is over-subscribed... The league needs 112.5% of the available resource in the starting lineup each week. And that's before the bye weeks hit.
And now you know why all of the experts used to say that you have to go RB-RB in the first two rounds.
And now you also know why so many backup running backs get started in your fantasy leagues. Usually by the guy that went QB-WR-TE with his first three picks.
And, good news, with the philosophy changing recently the top RB's are slipping. In one of my money leagues last year I got Ray Rice at #9 (nine!) and grabbed Darren McFadden in the second round. Crazy! I won the league. (That was one of the leagues that I took Stafford late.)
However, that brings me to the point about Risk and Reward and why drafting philosophies have changed. Run DMC got hurt. Lots of RB's get hurt. It's much more risky to take an RB early than just about any other position.
Besides, who would you rather draft at #5 overall this year - Ryan Mathews or Aaron Rodgers? Yep. There's maybe a 40% chance that Mathews gets hurt and probably 10% (at worst) that Rodgers misses significant time. After all, you can't win your league in the first round... but you can lose it. (Which may or may not be true. One of my first posts in this space was about that concept... what is true about it and what is not.)
But let me just say for the record here that playing it safe will guarantee you to have a relatively fun and competitive year, but you won't dominate and your chances of winning it all will be primarily luck-based. True, there is a ton of luck in fantasy football and there is a slight chance that you may win your league on luck.
Frankly, I'd rather take the scarce resource early, draft bench backups early, and roll with that kind of luck.
Monday, June 4, 2012
You Can't Handle the Youk
With Kevin Youkilis so famously on the trading block these days, I'd like to talk about the potential impact of in-season trades and what that might mean for your fantasy squad.
I've got a few things you might consider when a certain player is on the real-world trading block. Their value may be ready to increase with a new ballpark address.
Here we go:
1) If they are selling why should I be buying?
If playing time improves, at bats will increase, and statistics should go right along with them. Look, I don't think that Youkilis has much left but I wouldn't be shocked to see him go somewhere like Arizona and get some pep in his step and start to mash. Crazier things happen every day.
So, while I really don't like Youkilis in Boston this year I might take a flyer on him with the D-Backs. (For example.) This same thing can happen with lots of players, of course. Think critically about park effects, playing time concerns, and whether a simple change of scenery can breathe new life into the player's career.
Take these items into account and ask yourself if the recently-traded or maybe the soon-to-be-traded player is getting a bump in value that possibly their current owner isn't factoring in. (Or it the player may be worth a pickup from the waiver pool.) Maybe you can handle the Youk.
I've got a few things you might consider when a certain player is on the real-world trading block. Their value may be ready to increase with a new ballpark address.
Here we go:
1) If they are selling why should I be buying?
- Yes, it is true that the current owner is selling, but if the player is traded then there is also a buyer on the other end. What does the new team see themselves getting from the player? Take a look at what they give up for the guy, and that can show you how they value him. Consider why the other team is acquiring the player and if that reasoning works with your risk/reward tolerance.
- Are they buried on the depth chart with no room to get regular at bats? Sometimes there is a big free agent signing or a hot prospect that takes at bats away and a new lineup is just what the doctor ordered.
- If so, does that mean more at-bats? Has the player ever been a DH before? Some guys just can't get into the flow of the game at DH and it doesn't work. Also, are they hiding some sort of injury? This may not be automatically a bad thing... Some guys can just go up and hit without worrying about certain injuries that they would have to be concerned about while playing defense. Nevertheless, the player may be damaged goods... Be on the lookout for this and look at the evidence.
- Too often there is baggage associated with a team, a city, a manager, or teammates. A change of venue can be a huge shot in the arm to a player that has worn out his welcome. Look for evidence of conflict with the manager or booing from the fans. You may also look at a player who used to deliver big stats and has been trending down recently. If you do a prime profile on the player and determine that there is still plenty of gas left in the tank, try to acquire them.
If playing time improves, at bats will increase, and statistics should go right along with them. Look, I don't think that Youkilis has much left but I wouldn't be shocked to see him go somewhere like Arizona and get some pep in his step and start to mash. Crazier things happen every day.
So, while I really don't like Youkilis in Boston this year I might take a flyer on him with the D-Backs. (For example.) This same thing can happen with lots of players, of course. Think critically about park effects, playing time concerns, and whether a simple change of scenery can breathe new life into the player's career.
Take these items into account and ask yourself if the recently-traded or maybe the soon-to-be-traded player is getting a bump in value that possibly their current owner isn't factoring in. (Or it the player may be worth a pickup from the waiver pool.) Maybe you can handle the Youk.
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