The Top Three

The top three draft picks in almost every football draft this year will be Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and LeSean McCoy... in some order.  Just about everyone has Foster at number one.

Not me.  Let's discuss.

Okay, around here we talk about doing a prime profile on our draft picks, especially the ones that require the highest investment.  I'd say the #1 pick is a pretty sizable investment, so let's break it down.

1.  Prime Age Range - All three are in the prime age range for the position.  McCoy is 24, Foster and Rice are 25.

• So far so good.

2.  Prime Pedigree - Foster was undrafted out of Tennessee after a dismal senior season (though he did have a dynamic junior season for the Vols).  Rice and McCoy were both 2nd round draft picks after great collegiate careers at Rutgers and Pitt, respectively.

• Okay, a small step back for Foster there.

3.  Good Injury History - Foster missed three games last year twice injuring a hamstring, and even tweeting a picture of the MRI of the injured tendon.  He did bounce back to carry the ball 278 times in 13 games.  McCoy has played in 15 games each of the past two years.  Rice has played in all 16 games for three years in a row with more than 200 carries each season.

• So, another small step back for Foster.

4.  Handcuff Option - All three guys have a clear-cut backup.  However, Dion Lewis in Philly and Bernard Pierce in Baltimore aren't real threats to take significant carries away from the starter.  Plus they can be taken very late in your draft.  In Houston, Ben Tate has emerged as a potential future star at RB in the NFL.  He'll take some of the action away from Foster and will cost you about a 7th round draft pick.

• Huge advantage for Rice and McCoy.

5.  Other Situational Changes - There haven't been a lot of coaching or quarterback changes for these guys over the past two years.  Also, they all just signed new 5-year contracts so money isn't an issue here.  The biggest situational difference that I can see is the situation at fullback in Houston and Baltimore.  Vonta Leach was the FB in Houston two years ago and is generally regarded as the best in the league.  He went to Baltimore last year and is still there.  Houston filled in last year with a pretty good FB named Lawrence Vickers and this year it looks like they are going with James Casey.  That is not a good thing.

• Big advantage for Rice over Foster.  A "push" for McCoy.

So, remind me again... Why does everyone have Foster clearly ranked #1?

In a PPR league it gets worse since Rice will get you 72 receptions per year and Foster checks in around 60.  McCoy's numbers there have fluctuated a lot, but the average the past two years is 63.  Again, another feather in Rice's cap.

The only thing I can think of to knock Rice is that the Ravens lost pro-bowl guard Ben Grubbs to free agency.  I just don't think that is enough to overcome everything above.  Go with Rice, my friends.

The Backup Quarterback

A new tactic for you to consider...  The quarterback handcuff.  I know it's a strange concept, but hear me out.

Normally fantasy football players take their starting QB anywhere from round one through round seven and then grab a backup QB in the area around rounds 10-12.

I've seen a few different ways to approach this including back-to-back quarterbacks, no backup on the roster, and now this idea of the quarterback handcuff.  Let's discuss:

No Backup - There are people in the industry that I respect who are completely sold on this concept.  What you do is invest in one of the top 5 QB's and then completely avoid drafting a QB2.  Why waste a roster spot on a QB2 when you are going to start your stud every single week?  Got it.  Makes sense.  You could grab your high-upside longshot at RB6 with that spot.  Maybe he hits and you've got lightning in a bottle.  It is better to give yourself a chance at that then to burn a roster spot on a boring QB2 that is like the 16th best guy in the league.  On the bye week you just grab the best guy off of waivers who has a decent matchup.  Easy as that.

Back-to-Back Quarterbacks - This is a theory that I tend to lean toward with certain exceptions.  This tactic involves loading up on RB's and WR's with your first six picks and then taking two QB's in rounds 7 and 8.  The idea here is that by playing the matchups week to week you end up with production that is worth about what the #5 QB is supposed to provide.  At the same time you even out your production, you have a great bye-week replacement, you insure yourself against injury, and you're using those high picks on the positions that are the most scarce. Boom.

QB Handcuff - A lot of people handcuff their RB's, but you almost never see the QB handcuff.  When they handcuff their RB's they are drafting the clear-cut real-life backup to the RB that they drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of their fantasy draft.  That insures them against injury and locks in that RB1 role on the fantasy squad.  Now, when you draft one of the 3 or 4 best QB's in the 1st or 2nd round, why not handcuff them?  QB's almost always have a clear-cut backup and that backup QB in a great offense might be better than the typical QB2 you would take... The 16th best guy that you would draft in round 12 of your fantasy draft.  Your stud QB's real-life backup can almost always be had in the last round of your draft, and no one will want him but you.  In fact, you could probably not draft him at all and pick him up right before the season.  And, how about this - consolidate value on your team with a 2-for-1 deal to free up that roster spot.  Can you trade your 8th and 12th round picks for like a 6th rounder before the season starts?  You can certainly do something along those lines.  Is that better than spending a 12th rounder on a lame QB2 who won't play for you except in the case of injury anyway?  Uh, yeah.  You end up with basically the same situation except you turned your 8th rounder into a 6th rounder.  The clear downside is that you don't have a bye week replacement, but think of it this way: This is like the no-backup strategy except for the bonus that you already know who you are dropping.  You drop your real-life backup QB for your best bye week guy, then you reverse the process the following week.  No one will burn a roster spot on the real-life backup to your QB1, so you can do this completely safely and predictably.

I've never attempted the QB Handcuff before, but it is a strategy that I'm liking the more I think about it.  The only problem is that most people can't name the backups to Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Aaron Rodgers.  That means they don't have much of a pedigree or track record, which is the thing that makes this a risky strategy.  Proceed with caution.

Way Out, Way Out

As a follow up to my post titled, "The Man", I thought I'd take look at wide receivers to see what the landscape looks like for WR's who are the clear-cut #1 wideout on their team.

First of all, being the clear #1 receiver is not the same as being the clear #1 RB.  The #1 receiver won't get all of the targets since there are a lot of mouths to feed in an offense.  Also, having a strong #2 on the other side of the field can actually be a benefit in many situations.  However, I think that in general you want to find receivers that are the clear-cut, no-question-about-it number one option on the team.  Especially in the red zone.

Let's have a look at some receivers that may qualify:

• Calvin Johnson 
• Larry Fitzgerald
• Greg Little
• Steve Smith
• *Antonio Gates
• Brandon Marshall
• Andre Johnson
• Percy Harvin
• Santonio Holmes
• A.J. Green
• Dwayne Bowe
• Stevie Johnson
• Vincent Jackson
• Reggie Wayne
• Sidney Rice

 *Note:  Yes, I understand that Gates is a tight end.  He's in a very unique situation, though...  Malcom Floyd is the #1 WR there with Vincent Jackson gone and is probably a great sleeper this year, but Gates is the clear #1 target in the passing game.  I don't think you can say that about any other tight end in the game. He's also supposedly 100% healthy for the first time in a few years.  Sleeper alert.  Now back to your regularly-scheduled message.

Look at that list of receivers.  Some of them are well-known and highly-valued assets.  Megatron (1st round), Larry Fitz (2nd), and Andre Johnson (2nd).

Some others are early round draft picks that are probably solid picks where they are going: Steve Smith (4th), A.J. Green (3rd), Brandon Marshall (3rd).  You can use the idea that they are the clear #1 to differentiate them on your draft board.  Wes Welker is going two spots ahead of Marshall and he'll have another great year this year, but I personally prefer Marshall.  Marshall has an amazing track record and now he's reunited with Jay Cutler.

Steve Smith is going four spots after Jordy Nelson.  Even though I'm a little skeptical of Smith this year, I definitely like him better than Nelson.  There are a million targets in Green Bay and Nelson was too reliant on the big play last year.  Who is Smith competing with?  Greg Olsen?  (Who is another great sleeper at tight end, by the way.)

Okay, let's look deeper.  Harvin, Bowe, VJAX, and Stevie are all going in the 5th round.  Also going in the fifth round (and a little earlier) are: DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Lloyd, and Marques Colston.  So, the question becomes whether you want the primary target with a mediocre QB or one of the top two or three targets with an excellent QB.  Your mileage may vary here, so tread lightly.  I personally have Maclin ranked #1 out of that group of 8 WR's and have DeSean at #8.  That's because I believe that Maclin is 100% healthy and DeSean is a lot like Jordy Nelson (reliant on the big play = unpredictable).  Also, with this group look to see who slips in the draft.  If Bowe or Stevie slip to the late 7th or early 8th they are a good deal.  You know they'll get plenty of targets.

Alright, let's keep digging.  Who's left?  Wayne (7th), Rice (9th), Holmes (9th), Little (10th).  Now then, here are some good values.  Wayne is a bit risky since he his playing with a rookie QB, but if you can get him in the 7th or 8th round there is solid upside.  Earlier he was going in the 4th or 5th round which was way too early.  Rice and Holmes are not without their warts, but in the 9th or 10th round you can get a guy who is the clear #1 target in their offense.  Think about that for a minute.  They will be on your bench, ready to plug in... and when you do, they will be getting work.

Let's look at Greg Little in the 10th.  He's not in his first season anymore and he has a brand new QB (a 28-year-old "rookie") with one of the strongest arms in the NFL (already) zipping the ball to him.  Also, think about what else has changed in his situation.  He didn't play his senior year at UNC in 2010 and even before then he was a converted running back.  Then, last year there was no off-season in his rookie year.  So, fast forward to this year... He had last year to knock off the rust, plus a full off-season, a new QB with a big arm, he's gotten used to the NFL, and he's shed about 15 pounds.  10th round?  Yes, please.  Everyone downgrades him because he plays in that abysmal Cleveland Browns offense.  That offense added Brad Childress as the offensive coordinator and spent the #3 pick on Trent Richardson.  I see a more dynamic and well-planned offense coming and I see defenses focused on stopping Richardson.

By the way, if you are in any of my leagues please ignore that last paragraph.  Nothing to see here... move along, move along.

To everyone else, I hope this was helpful.  Best of luck to you in your drafts!

Megatron's Powers

Calvin Johnson is on the cover of Madden this year and everyone is concerned about the curse.  I'm here to tell you not to worry about it.  Why?  Because the curse isn't real?

Nope.  Because Megatron's powers are greater than the curse.  Go ahead and start paying attention to it again in 2013, but for now...  Calvin > Curse.

Do I have any real information to share or am I just going to make funny?  Well, yes I do.  Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers are in the top tier by themselves this year in their respective positions.  They are my first round exceptions.

We've talked quite a bit in this space about positional scarcity in fantasy football and how the need at the running back position is over-subscribed.  Everywhere else there is tons of depth.  Taking strong RB's early and often is highly recommended, and you could do a lot worse than starting your draft with RB-RB-RB.

And still, Rodgers and Megatron are the notable exceptions.  They are so head and shoulders above their colleagues it isn't funny.

Rodgers' passing TD's took a big leap forward last year, so you can't count on 45 TD's but he's a safe bet for about 4,500 yards, ~34 TD's, and ~9 Int's.  That is elite by itself, but layer on top of that about 300 yards rushing and 4 rushing TD's, which is 54 more points in a normal fantasy league.  That's almost 4 points per week... on top of elite passing numbers.

Johnson's situation might be even more striking.  He's still only 26 and his QB emerged last year as one of the best in the league.  There other wide receivers on that team who are mediocre but solid which helps him a bit by spreading the field without threatening his status as #1.  Plus, there is an average-at-best running game in Detroit right now.  So, mix together the best receiver in the league in his prime plus one of the top 5 QB's in the league in his prime plus the entire offense resting on the shoulders of said wide receiver.  It's a perfect mix.  And, he erupted for 1,681 yards and 16 TD's last year.  You can count on 1,200 and 12.  He's got upside of 2,000 and 22.

Yes, 2,000 yards receiving... That's what I'm saying his ceiling is.  Look, Matthew Stafford will throw for over 4,000 yards this year.  Pettigrew, Burleson, and Young might get about 2,000 of it.  Mega gets the rest.

Is that likely to happen?  Nope.  What is likely is that he does what he did last year...  1,600 and 16.

Also, last thing...  People are saying that Johnson is actually bigger and stronger this year.  Crazy.  Optimus Prime better not get in his way.  Curse, shmurse.

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The Man

I wasn't thinking of Stan Musial when I typed the headline, but I am now.  Has there ever been a better nickname than "The Man"?  I'd like to think he still would have been nicknamed that even if his name was Oscar Musial.  You know, without the rhyme.  He still would have been the man.

But I digress.  Fantasy football research season is upon us and I'd like to talk about one of the most important aspects of your coming drafts: finding running backs who are going to get a lot of work.  Clear cut starters who have the top job without a lot of competition.  The bell cow.  The Man.

There aren't a lot of them, certainly not like say twenty or thirty years ago.  Back in the day just about every team had a feature back that would get just about all of the work.  These days teams usually subscribe to the conventional wisdom to keep your guys fresh and to go with a committee.

Nevertheless, there are some guys out there that should get a larger than average number of carries this year, assuming everyone stays healthy.  There are a handful of guys that don't have big competition for carries, and you may not be thinking of all of them in that way.

Now, don't go using this list to dramatically move a player way up your cheat sheets by 30 or 40 spots.  However, here at the FSB we are all about strategy that you can use over and over again and this tactic is something that is a repeatable best practice.  If an RB is the man he'll have a great opportunity to shine.  That is much preferred over a talented guy who might get lost in a 3-man or 4-man backfield.

I would recommend improving the rankings of these guys a bit and maybe bumping them up a tier if they are bunched with guys who have more competition.

So, some of the guys we're talking about include:

• Ray Rice
• LeSean McCoy
• Ryan Mathews 
• Marshawn Lynch
• Trent Richardson
• Darren McFadden
• Steven Jackson
• Shonn Greene
• James Starks
• Donald Brown

In my opinion, none of those guys have strong competition for carries on their team.  There's no trendy sleeper on the second string.  The closest is Mike Goodson in Oakland or Isaiah Pead in St. Louis.  I refuse to consider Delone Carter as a legit threat in Indy.

The next guy on the list would have been Ahmad Bradshaw, but I think David Wilson is a legitimate threat there.  Moreso than Pead or Goodson.

Of course, all of this assumes no injuries, so your mileage may vary.

But listen, you could do a lot worse than a combination of Rice, Richardson, Starks, and Brown.

Reverse Handcuff

When you take a running back very early in a snake draft or spend a lot of money on one in an auction draft, you're going to want to take out some insurance to protect that investment.  If there is a clear-cut, quality backup for that player then you've got to grab him.  That is what we call a handcuff.

But I've been thinking, there are a few situations where the clear-cut starter isn't available for some reason... injury, suspension, or contract dispute.  So how do you handle those situations?  It's strange, but it's almost a reverse handcuff situation.  You devalue the starter and increase the value of the backup.

For example, what do you do with the Minnesota situation this year?  They've been softening on their stance that Adrian Peterson is completely healthy and it's looking more and more that he might actually go on the PUP list to start the season.  That means at least six weeks on the shelf.  Look, Toby Gerhart isn't a very good running back... but if Peterson is out for six weeks?  Guaranteed?  Well, they'll run Gerhart until his wheels fall off, and you can get him very cheaply in your draft.

What about Chicago?  Forte says he'll sign, but what if it drags out like with Vincent Jackson in San Diego?  That is a buying opportunity on Michael Bush.

Detroit is murky with a three-headed monster up there, but Mikel LeShoure is suspended for two weeks.  That's something at least...  Does that increase the value of Jahvid Best?  Sure.

Be on the lookout for these kinds of situations and the hidden value that they bring to the table.  And remember, when you draft someone like Toby Gerhart don't forget to take his handcuff too.

Drafting, for Starters

Most fantasy football teams have nine starting positions - quarterback, tight end, defense, kicker, two running backs, two wide receivers, and some sort of flex.  That's pretty common, though there are a million variations.  What doesn't vary is the way about half of your competitors will approach their draft.  That approach?  They will systematically fill out all of their starting positions (except kicker, usually) before turning their attention to the bench.

This is a market inefficiency that you can exploit.  It's a buying opportunity for you.

Think about it, most fantasy football players will take their tight end and defense too early just because they are starting every week.  What's worse is that they will often ignore the flex spot until round 8 since it isn't a defined position.  Their draft will go something like this:

• Round 1: RB
• Round 2: WR
• Round 3: QB
• Round 4: RB
• Round 5: WR
• Round 6: TE
• Round 7: D/ST
• Round 8: WR

There are so many things wrong with this draft that I don't really know where to start, but I see it over and over again.  Heck, I even see a kicker going in round 9 more often than I'd like to discuss.  Folks like filling out that starting roster.

Okay, here we go...

• Quarterback in round 3?  The super studs are gone by now and you should be waiting until several rounds later since QB's in the #5-#9 range are usually pretty similar.  Last year that would have looked something like Tony Romo versus Matthew Stafford.  The fact that you would have lucked out on Stafford is beside the point, though it certainly bolsters it.  The point here is that RB's and (to a lesser extent) WR's are a more scarce resource and you should be spending your early round currency on what is more difficult to obtain.
• Tight end in round 6?  Filling out that lineup, are ya?  Listen, there might be a good one there for you in round 6 but you could get a very comparable one (or maybe the exact same one) in round 9.  Use those picks to build inventory where you need it - RB.
• D/ST in round 7?  What are you doing, man?  C'mon, defenses are hard to predict and don't give you a discernible advantage week-to-week.  Plus, you're probably going to want to drop your defense when the bye weeks hit...  Can't do that with the one you take in round 7.
• WR3 in round 8?  Of course you did.  But do you know why you did?  You took a WR there because those names seemed to sound better than what was available at RB.  You know what?  You're going to need a couple more RB's and the names are going to continue to get worse.  This could have been avoided if you had grabbed some inventory earlier instead of taking a defense and a tight end.

There is a semi-defensible rationale for drafting your starters first, that being that you aren't getting points from the players on your bench so in your draft you have to prioritize the players who will be scoring for you.  The problem with that is that the draft strategy outlined above doesn't give you the best chance to win.

You need to prioritize by the scarcity of the position and the potential point difference provided by quality options at the scarce positions.  Getting a stud defense will help on certain weeks, but overall it is a small difference.  Grabbing a second-tier tight end instead of a third-tier option will have almost no impact, even if you guess right.

And don't get me started on kickers.

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