Fantasy Draft Weekend Recap

Expert Panel:  Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports (right); Dave McKay (center);  Tim Schuler of RotoWire (left)

We had a marvelous time at Fantasy Draft Weekend.  Huge thank you to the event planners, the team at Fantasy Knuckleheads, and especially to all of the crazy fantasy football fans who attended.  We're already looking forward to building on this event's success in 2013.

I was honored to be invited to speak on an experts panel (pictured above), seated between guys from RotoWire and CBS Sports.  (Sorry for stealing your thunder on Michael Turner, Jamey!)

A great time was had by all... We even dodged the raindrops to get some golfing in.

Dave McKay (left); Jeff Schmidt (center); Tim Schuler, COO of RotoWire (right)

Insurance for Your Small Investments

Traditionally the concept of a "handcuff" is for protecting a high-investment resource with their clear-cut quality backup.  It usually refers to running backs, though in this space we did recently explore the idea of handcuffing quarterbacks.  Check it out here.

Like any year, there are a ton of running back handcuffs:  Arian Foster and Ben Tate is the most obvious since Foster is the typical #1 overall and Tate is a fantastic backup.  A close second is Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings.  MoJo might not even start the season and Jennings has looked great.  If you invest in Ahmad Bradshaw you are going to want David Wilson.  Matt Forte owners will want Michael Bush.  For LeSean McCoy it's probably Dion Lewis and Ray Rice has rookie Bernard Pierce.

The point of the handcuff is to lock up one of your RB slots so that you know that you have the full season taken care of in that starting role even if injuries hit.

But let me ask you a question: What do you do if you go with a quarterback or wide receiver in the first round and then follow that up with a tight end or receiver in the second?  You're not really going to be able to handcuff Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham.  Should you spend a draft pick handcuffing Stevan Ridley?  Maybe... but is it Shane Vereen?  I guess so, but can that be predicted very reliably?  It just doesn't really work out as well... but I have another idea for you.

For the record, I'm of the mind that the great teams this year will take running backs early... but if you don't go that way, why not wait even longer on running backs and get a cheap starter who has a clear backup?

For example, what will Kevin Smith and Mikel LeShoure cost you?  How about Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman?  There aren't a lot of options with this tactic, but another might be BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Bernard Scott.  Another might be Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas.

When you get a combo like this in combination with a top running back you can really lock down your RB2 slot for the year.  It will make filling out your starting roster a lot easier and alleviate the risk associated with taking some of these guys.  You may not want to take Kevin Smith, but if you also have LeShoure you've got to think that one of those guys will be healthy and productive most of the time.  That takes the pressure off of filling that RB2 slot.

Taking the Best Player Available

A lot of sites (most, really) have a "Top 300" or "Top 200" type of list.  This lists players in order of value according to their experts.  There are reasons why people like to see this - maybe they don't do much in the way of value based drafting (as we teach in "The Program") or they just want to quickly compare relative values across positions.

The problem is that a fantasy football draft doesn't work that way, especially after the first 6 or 7 rounds.  You can't just take the next guy on the list because you are building a roster that can compete for the championship, not just the best collection of names.

Also, you're going to want to shift gears a lot in a draft between proven, solid performers and big time upside picks.  If you don't take a few shots on upside plays, you will be putting your chances of winning the league mostly in the hands of lady luck.  But, if you gamble a little (not too much) and you hit on half of those picks you'll be giving yourself a chance to win the league on the merit of your own skill.

Furthermore, let's think logically about those Top 300 lists.  When the experts are writing those lists what they do is to create sub-lists for positions and then mash them together.  That leaves you with clumps of players from similar positions, especially as you start to get into the middle rounds.  So, for example, it may be the case that there are receivers ranked from #84 through #89.  What the expert is saying is that they are basically all the same.  If there is a running back at #90 and then a gap until #102 until the next RB, you may be better off drafting the RB listed at #90 rather than the WR at #84.  Why?  Because the value of the next WR you get should be in that range from #84-#89, but the next RB is ranked 12 spots lower and is probably not in the same class as Mr. #90.

Another thing, primarily with regard to quarterbacks.  Let's say you are in a 10-team league.  Let's say in that league that QB's ranked from #7 to #10 are all grouped together as about 5th round picks.  If the first three go off the board in the 5th, you could be feeling like you really need to draft that 10th QB.  The bottom line, though, is that you can wait because everyone else has their starter and QB #10 will probably still be there for you in the 7th round.  There are values for you at RB and WR there since everyone else has been focusing on QB's.

Just a few thoughts for you.  We have a lot more to share, so please check out our training package so you can discover the fantasy greatness that is within you!

Fantasy Draft Weekend Experts

Big News Brainiacs: Not only will I be appearing at Fantasy Draft Weekend at the PGA Resort in Palm Beach, FL... but... Joining me on the experts panel will be Tim Schuler (one of the brains behind RotoWire) and Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports.

Jamey was just added today for what should be a remarkable experts panel.  It should prove to be an amazing event, one not to be missed.  If you can be there, be there.  Bring your whole league and have your draft on site, bring part of your league and connect to the remote guys over the web, or come by yourself and join a league on the spot.  Come one, come all.

Ryan Mathews Injured – What to do?

It’s a moving target my friends.  We’ve got to stay on top of every new wrinkle and adjust our drafting strategies as we go.  A prime example is last night’s injury to Ryan Mathews.

There are a ton of things to like about Mathews and I’ve seen him ranked this year anywhere from #2 overall down to about #10, but just about everyone had him ranked as a solid first round pick in any format.  Until last night.

There are indeed lots of things to like with Mathews.  Here we have a former 1st round pick coming off of a very strong sophomore season in the NFL.  Ideal size and weight for a feature back, he had the highest yards per carry of any back in the league last year over 220 carries.  Furthermore, Mike Tolbert, the #2 running back in San Diego left the organization in the off-season so there is no longer a strong #2 running back to siphon off carries, receptions (Tolbert had 54), and touchdowns (10 for Tolbert in 2011) from Mathews.  He’s got a fantastic quarterback to open up the field, his head coach is saying that they will give him all he can handle, and he’s still only in his 3rd season.  We have so few clear bell-cow feature backs in the NFL that the ones we have become prized commodities, and that describes Mathews.

There is just this one little problem:  He gets injured.

He was listed on the injury report 10 times as a rookie and only played in 12 games.  In his 2nd year he was on the injury report 5 times, missing 2 games.  Just last week he was “a little banged up” from a minor car accident.  And now, this:  a broken clavicle on his first carry of the preseason.

Ouch.

The official prognosis is that he is out 4-6 weeks.  So, it is within the realm of possibility that he comes back for the opener on Monday night 4 weeks and 3 days from now.  It’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it.  I should point out that despite my hesitancy, Mathews is still very young and probably has good recuperative abilities, plus he has been trying to play with his injuries in the first two years of his career.  I don’t think there is any reason to doubt his toughness or his ability to heal at this point.

However, there is plenty of reason to doubt his ability to stay healthy.
So, what do we do with him?  One thing is for sure, he’s not a 1st round pick anymore.  You’ve got to figure he’s out at least one game, if not two or three.  I’m not a doctor, even though I play one on the Internet, but the recovery process from a broken collarbone will limit his ability to work out and stay sharp.  I suppose he will be able to maintain his cardio and leg strength, so it isn’t all doom and gloom, but even with that said this knocks him down at least a round or two.

My personal opinion is that I will be looking for him to drop in drafts.  If he slides to the late 3rd or early 4th round I’m willing to roll the dice.  But, to be sure, it is a roll of the dice.  He could roll an ankle again… or injure his elbow again… or his groin again… or his foot again… or his calf again.  Or another illness, or another car accident.  Or why not try something new?  He’s got other things to injure.

Yeah, But When?

There are players out there with projected stat lines that are reasonable and who will consequently deliver a good value based on where they are projected to be drafted in your fantasy draft.

Some of those players will be solid, consistent performers for you.  You can count on them to deliver close to their average most weeks, and while not flashy, can be a low-cost steady contributor to a great fantasy team.

Then there are the rest.  You know the ones I'm talking about: They are projected to have a good season but you just know that 60% of their numbers will be accumulated in exactly three games.  Yeah, sure they will produce, but when?  Will I ever feel comfortable starting that guy?  How will I know when they will deliver?

When speculating in your upcoming drafts don't just project statistics, but also project consistency.  Often it makes sense to have a lower producer who can be counted on week-in and week-out to give you a certain fantasy point total.  Is there anything more frustrating than the player with weekly point totals like this:  17, 0, 3, 1, 22, 1, 28, 2, 4, 0, 14, 2, 22, 0, 0, 1.

I mean, really, you've had that guy before haven't you?  The good news is that that player will basically win 4 or 5 weeks for you with their sudden outbursts of points.  Assuming you start them every week.

The bad news?  They will lose more weeks for you, especially in the playoffs.  It always happens.

The worse news?  It's like timing the stock market.  You just can't guess right every time over any significant stretch of time.  In the line of points above you would probably start the guy for the first four weeks then sit him for his 22 points.  Maybe you start him for his 1-point week, maybe not.  Either way, you're going to sit him after it so you'd miss the 28.  Then you probably aren't starting him for several weeks.  Then, 14, 2, and 22 to finish the regular season... maybe he's good to go for week 14?  Nope.  Zero.  Arrgh!

If you pay attention to matchups and defenses you might be able to mitigate the risk somewhat, but it will always be a risk.  The better move is to mostly draft proven veterans who are squarely within their Prime Profile.  Identify those guys who will deliver for you by looking at what they have done over the past two seasons.

This combines with our 20/20 Process to help you have a solid foundation while allowing you strong upside on your team.  This is explained in "The Program" and detailed in the draft prep sections. 

Best of luck finding those mid-round steals in your drafts, folks.

Gabbert Braggart

Blaine Gabbert is the deepest of all deep sleepers this year, but can he emerge as a top quarterback?  What does his upside look like this year?

What does a quarterback need to emerge as a great NFL signal caller?  There isn't any one proven formula, but there are some consistent components that keep showing themselves over and over again:

1. A great young future stud receiver to develop
2. A home-run hitting veteran
3. A dependable "safety valve" at tight end
4. A stellar running game
5. At least a little experience (can't be a rookie)

Alright, fair enough. Allow me pose the requisite questions:

• Question:  Which NFL quarterback has the top rookie wide receiver lined up out wide?  
• Answer: Gabbert.  No receiver was drafted higher than Justin Blackmon at #5 overall.  Superstar potential, has he.
• Question:  Which NFL quarterback added the biggest home run hitter to his receiver corps?
• Answer:  Gabbert.  Laurent Robinson was tied for 4th in the NFL in receiving touchdowns last year.  No higher-ranked player changed teams.
• Question:  Which NFL quarterback has a tight end who has played at least 15 games for 6 consecutive seasons with solid, reliable statistics?
• Answer:  Gabbert.  We're talking about a solid option at tight end, not necessarily the absolute best.  The quarterback in question needs that veteran who can be counted on to deliver in the clutch. That defines Marcedes Lewis.
• Question:  Which quarterback has the league leader in rushing yards in the backfield?  
• Answer: Gabbert.  Maurice Jones-Drew led the league in rushing last year.  Furthermore, Rashad Jennings is establishing himself this pre-season as a future star.  That is a stellar running game to take pressure off the passer.
• Question: Which quarterback isn't a rookie anymore?
• Answer:  Gabbert.  Okay, this defines a few guys... but Gabbert looked more like a terrible rookie than anyone last year so he benefits the most from "no longer being a rookie."

There is no better candidate for this "not a rookie" label than Blaine Gabbert.  He's a veteran now, my friends.

Is all of this likely to happen?  Nope.  It is funny how things seem to line up perfectly in the strangest places though.  Weirder things have happened than the emergence of Blaine Gabbert in year two.

Also, am I serious?  Nope.  Well, I wrote this as a joke, but I ended up with a pretty convincing argument didn't I?

Fantasy Draft Weekend

Join me on August 24th and 25th for the inaugural Fantasy Draft Weekend at the PGA National Resort in Palm Beach, Florida.  I have been selected as one of the fantasy football experts for this event along with Tim Schuler of RotoWire.com and various radio personalities from the local airwaves as well as Sirius/XM.

It should be an amazing time...  Bring your whole league, part of your league, or come by yourself and let them put you in a league.  All are welcome!