Acquisitions, Inc.

We're in the thick of it, folks... It's late enough that we're starting to get an idea of what these guys really are this year and it is early enough to make some decisions and corresponding moves.

It's also early enough that even if you are 0-3 you aren't out of it.  Even in a 12-team league that only has 4 go to the playoffs, you've still got a shot.  So, let's make some smart moves.

In that vein, here are some strategic thoughts about how you should be approaching these in-season roster moves:

• You need studs as starters plus one solid backup at WR and RB.  Everything else should be an upside play (with a few exceptions).  If you are carrying 5 or 6 RB's at least 1 or 2 of them should have big upside potential.  Jacquizz Rodgers, Ryan Williams, Ben Tate, Andre Brown, and even Ronnie Hillman come to mind.
• Do you really need that second QB or second TE?  Maybe.  But, let me tell you... you almost never need the third one.  That spot should be a high upside RB (or WR) instead.
• Have a roster slot dedicated to prospecting on players that might break out one week before they do.  It was a lot easier to get Mikel Leshoure two weeks ago than last week.
• I tend to prefer the top WR in a mediocre offense to the #3 in a great offense (or even the #2 in a lot of cases).  In other words, Titus Young was drafted ahead of Santonio Holmes and Brian Hartline almost everywhere.  I'd rather have Holmes or Hartline.
• Try to find trade targets who have recently emerged but just had one bad game.  One bad game could be due to the game plan on either side of the ball... but people still freak out.  Especially with emerging players.  Dennis Pitta is a great example.
• Target a trade partner and approach them with an email before a trade offer.  This usually works a lot better.
• When you do a 2-for-1 deal think about who you will fill your empty roster spot with.  In other words, if you are offering Tony Romo and Demarius Thomas for Tom Brady, ask yourself who replaces Thomas.  Maybe someone like Nate Burleson is available.  Romo/Thomas for Brady may seem like maybe a little too much, but Romo/Thomas for Brady/Burleson is a great deal.  And, by the way, your trading partner won't see the Burleson part and will think they are getting a great deal.  Win/Win situation!

Good luck managing your team in-season.  The roster moves you make over the next few weeks will be nearly as important to your success as was draft day.  And, to tell you the truth, it is my opinion that you could just draft the highest-ranked player without thinking on every pick and then win your league based purely on the strength of your in-season acquisitions.

Best of luck over the next few weeks, Brainiacs!

Hakeem Nicks is Out!

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Now then, let’s discuss the wide receiver situation with the New York football Giants.  Hakeem Nicks had a great performance in week 2 but his foot is injured enough that he is out for tonight’s game in Charlotte.

Buy and Hold Sleeper Pick - Kendall Hunter

Last week I named Stephen Hill as my new deep sleeper, taking over for Greg Olsen... who has become very fashionable in recent weeks.  Well, wouldn't you know it?  Hill went off for 89 yards and two touchdowns.  Not to pat myself on the back, but now that Hill has gone from 2% ownership to more than 45% (at ESPN anyway) so it looks like I have to pick a new sleeper.  Maybe more of a buy and hold guy this time.

Let's take a look at Kendall Hunter.  He's the backup to a running back that is often referred to as injury-prone so that makes him worthy of a pickup by itself, but he still gets carries even when Frank Gore is healthy.  In fact, even though Gore was great last week, it was still much more of a timeshare than you would think.  Gore had 112 yards rushing... With that in mind how many carries would you guess that he and Hunter both had last week?  How about 16 for Gore and 9 for Hunter?  It was more of a split than you thought, wasn't it?

This shows us a few things:  (1) The coaches trust Hunter; (2) Hunter is the handcuff to Gore; and, (3) Hunter is already an active part of the game plan so he would integrate seamlessly into the starting role if needed.

Stephen Hill – New Deep Sleeper?

I posted this over on www.fantasyknuckleheads.com yesterday morning around 10:30...  I must be some kind of Nostradamus.
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Okay, so I picked my deep sleeper a while back but it seems that I need a new one.  It has become fashionable to get on the Greg Olsen bandwagon lately.  Just a couple of weeks ago he was going in the 14th round of drafts, if he was drafted at all.  Now?  I've seen him go as early as the 8th (eighth?!) round.  What's up with that?  I love Olsen as a sleeper this year for lots of reasons, but I don't think he can be my official 'deep' sleeper anymore.

By the way, before I talk about why I simultaneously hate and love Stephen Hill, let me explain the Olsen thing.  Early in his career in Chicago he showed flashes of his ability, but then he got Mike Martz as an offensive coordinator and Martz doesn't feature the tight end.  Last year he moved on to the Carolina Panthers with new Offensive Coordinator Rob Chudzinski.  Chudzinski was the OC at The University of Miami when Kellen Winslow II was there, but more importantly he made a name for himself in San Diego as the Tight Ends coach when Antonio Gates emerged.  So, Olsen was in Carolina for the first year last year but he had a rookie quarterback and more importantly had to share targets with Jeremy Shockey.  Cam Newton is no longer a rookie (as if he played like one last year anyway) and Shockey is gone.  Plus, Newton doesn't really have a lot of weapons there other than Steve Smith, who is another year older after his renaissance last year.

So, add all of that up and I think Olsen is a Top 10 tight end.

Okay, now to Stephen Hill.  He wasn't drafted in hardly any leagues this year.  His ownership percentage is around 2%.  If you look up his ADP, you don't find it.  That qualifies as deep sleeper.

Now then, I mentioned simultaneously loving and hating him.  Yep.  He's terrible.  And, he's awesome.

Kevin Ogletree and Tony Romo

The situation in Dallas for Tony Romo has been interesting lately with all of Dez Bryant’s issues, Miles Austin at less than 100%, Jason Witten’s spleen, Laurent Robinson leaving via free agency, etc.  I had a draft just two nights ago where Romo was drafted in the 9th round. (9th!)  That is completely and totally insane, but I suppose there were some reasons why people have been scared off.  We talk about those sorts of things in “The Program”… which gives you the tools to discover how to think like a fantasy expert.  (Check it out here.)
 
So, sure, there are lots of reasons to doubt whether Romo can keep playing at a high level.  Issues with his receivers, a depleted offensive line, yada yada.  Then along comes Kevin Ogletree.  He of the 25 career receptions for 294 total yards and a grand total of zero touchdowns.  The undrafted, average-sized receiver out of the ACC.  The guy who couldn’t even amass more than 58 receptions or 723 yards or 5 touchdowns in any season in college.