By this time in the fantasy football season you are starting to know who these players are this year. You are also getting a feel for roles and how pecking orders have changed as well as the health status of different players.
For example, the injury to Peyton Hillis this year has given Shaun Draughn a chance to amass a decent number of fantasy points in every game this year. Would you believe that he is the #33 running back in fantasy? Crazy, right? This year he has had weekly fantasy points of: 11, 8, 8, 9, 8, and 5.
Clearly Jamaal Charles is a stud #1 RB for your squad, but what do you do if you own him? Charles has had serious injury problems in the past and he needs to be handcuffed. It is my contention that even when Hillis returns, he won't be the backup. In my opinion, Hillis will be the #3 Chiefs running back because Draughn has earned the backup job. If you own Charles, please roster Draughn.
There's been a significant change in the WR corps in Green Bay, too, which is significant since it is one of the best aerial attacks in the NFL. With Jennings' injury we've seen James Jones have some great games. For now, Jordy Nelson is the #1 but he can be a boom or bust player. Jones has value until Jennings comes back around week 13, but the real breakout has been Randall Cobb. Cobb has turned himself into a viable WR2 for almost any fantasy squad. He was a fashionable waiver wire pickup after week 1, but he followed up with 5 and 3 points in weeks 2 and 3, respectively. Kudos to you if you held on to him or picked him up during those lean weeks. His past four games have been 16, 20, 21, and 29 points in standard scoring. And he catches balls in bunches so he is a PPR monster, too. Most industry experts see his production continuing even when Jennings returns.
There are a lot of situations in the league like this. There are still some great buy-low and sell-high opportunities out there if you look at the trends. Pay attention and get some steals as you drive toward the playoffs.
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Friday, October 26, 2012
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Trading for a "B" Player
I own Greg Jennings in a few leagues and I've got to tell you that it hasn't been too much fun this year. When healthy he is definitely an "A" player who is worthy of a start on your fantasy squad regardless of the matchup.
Jennings is in the prime of his career, he's got an amazing quarterback throwing the ball to him, and he is the #1 receiving option on one of the best offenses in the NFL. He's an "A" player.
But, he's been banged up most of the year and there are even rumors that they are considering keeping him out until after the week 10 bye. That means three more missed games and four more missed weeks. And, Jennings is so good that if you drop him he'd certainly be picked up right away. Someone is going to be willing to stash him for those four weeks, so it might as well be you since you have already made the investment.
There are other obvious players in this situation like DeMarco Murray and Hakeem Nicks. Ahmad Bradshaw was banged up earlier this year and came roaring back. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are trying to work themselves back into shape right now. Antonio Gates is also an "A" player, and up until this past week his picture was on a milk carton.
So, what do you do with these guys? You really only have two options:
In general I'm an advocate of stashing the player, and I'll explain why.
Let's look at Jennings. You probably took him in the late second round or more likely somewhere in the third, which is a sizable investment. You probably grabbed two "B" player receivers a little later and maybe a fourth option who is a "C" player with upside. Something like that, anyway: A stud WR1, two guys to rotate at WR2, and a bench guy who could blow up.
In any given week, let's say you start two WR's and possibly three if you put a WR in your flex spot. Additionally, for the sake of argument, let's say that Jennings won't play until week 11. You could deal him for a "B" player right now and get the production of that guy for the next four weeks (big bonus) and beyond.
But, let's think about what that does for you. Sure, you have the option of playing the matchups with your (now) three "B" receivers. You can mix and match and use that flexibility to help you win each week. This is an undeniable benefit.
But, to me, there are greater advantages to stashing the "A" player. Look, you've already got your two "B" guys plus another guy with upside. You might also be able to grab someone off of the waiver wire who is a good one-week fill-in. You can still play the matchups almost as effectively as if you had that third "B" level player.
The big thing, though, is that you'll have Jennings for weeks 11, 12, and 13 and also into your playoffs. He can be a difference-maker for you down the stretch and help you to win in the post-season.
That is huge. I don't care if you go 13-0 in the regular season or if you limp in with a 7-6 record, when those playoffs hit everyone is 0-0 again. Give yourself every advantage you can in those weeks, assuming you can get in fact get there.
Which leads me to the last thing... If you don't have Jennings, or Nicks, or Murray, or someone like them, start testing the waters to see if you can acquire one.
You saw what Nicks did for the Giants in the real-life playoffs last year. Give him a chance to lead you to victory this year.
Jennings is in the prime of his career, he's got an amazing quarterback throwing the ball to him, and he is the #1 receiving option on one of the best offenses in the NFL. He's an "A" player.
But, he's been banged up most of the year and there are even rumors that they are considering keeping him out until after the week 10 bye. That means three more missed games and four more missed weeks. And, Jennings is so good that if you drop him he'd certainly be picked up right away. Someone is going to be willing to stash him for those four weeks, so it might as well be you since you have already made the investment.
There are other obvious players in this situation like DeMarco Murray and Hakeem Nicks. Ahmad Bradshaw was banged up earlier this year and came roaring back. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are trying to work themselves back into shape right now. Antonio Gates is also an "A" player, and up until this past week his picture was on a milk carton.
So, what do you do with these guys? You really only have two options:
- Trade them for a "B" player
- Stash them and hope for the best
In general I'm an advocate of stashing the player, and I'll explain why.
Let's look at Jennings. You probably took him in the late second round or more likely somewhere in the third, which is a sizable investment. You probably grabbed two "B" player receivers a little later and maybe a fourth option who is a "C" player with upside. Something like that, anyway: A stud WR1, two guys to rotate at WR2, and a bench guy who could blow up.
In any given week, let's say you start two WR's and possibly three if you put a WR in your flex spot. Additionally, for the sake of argument, let's say that Jennings won't play until week 11. You could deal him for a "B" player right now and get the production of that guy for the next four weeks (big bonus) and beyond.
But, let's think about what that does for you. Sure, you have the option of playing the matchups with your (now) three "B" receivers. You can mix and match and use that flexibility to help you win each week. This is an undeniable benefit.
But, to me, there are greater advantages to stashing the "A" player. Look, you've already got your two "B" guys plus another guy with upside. You might also be able to grab someone off of the waiver wire who is a good one-week fill-in. You can still play the matchups almost as effectively as if you had that third "B" level player.
The big thing, though, is that you'll have Jennings for weeks 11, 12, and 13 and also into your playoffs. He can be a difference-maker for you down the stretch and help you to win in the post-season.
That is huge. I don't care if you go 13-0 in the regular season or if you limp in with a 7-6 record, when those playoffs hit everyone is 0-0 again. Give yourself every advantage you can in those weeks, assuming you can get in fact get there.
Which leads me to the last thing... If you don't have Jennings, or Nicks, or Murray, or someone like them, start testing the waters to see if you can acquire one.
You saw what Nicks did for the Giants in the real-life playoffs last year. Give him a chance to lead you to victory this year.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Recency Bias
There are good reasons why we focus so much on what a player just did. The primary reason, of course, is that we have proof that it can happen and it might happen again. Will they keep it rolling? What sort of momentum can they build?
Surely if they just did it, then it has a great chance of happening again. They've proved that they have this skill. Right?
We do this week to week in football but also season to season. In baseball, basketball, and hockey it feels like almost a day to day thought process. Each of these have their own merits but they have very different impacts on your fantasy roster.
And, listen, I'm here to tell you that what happened last week is about the worst thing to use as a basis for your weekly waiver wire picks in fantasy football. Think about it logically and you may find yourself giving your own head the facepalm.
Why? Let me count the ways:
Surely if they just did it, then it has a great chance of happening again. They've proved that they have this skill. Right?
We do this week to week in football but also season to season. In baseball, basketball, and hockey it feels like almost a day to day thought process. Each of these have their own merits but they have very different impacts on your fantasy roster.
And, listen, I'm here to tell you that what happened last week is about the worst thing to use as a basis for your weekly waiver wire picks in fantasy football. Think about it logically and you may find yourself giving your own head the facepalm.
Why? Let me count the ways:
- Team Matchup - Perhaps there were team reasons why a player got certain statistics last week. The game plan could have been specifically designed based on the strength or weakness of the opponent and that led to the accrual of fantasy points for the player in question.
- Unit Matchup - Was this running back playing against a bad run-stopping defensive line? Or, did the defensive line fail to generate a pass rush to interrupt the rhythm of a particular waiver wire quarterback option? Last week's unit matchup might be the reason for those great stats.
- Individual Matchup - Did the wide receiver exploit a great matchup against a poor corner back? Did this tight end find themselves matched up against a beatable linebacker all day? This happens all the time. Every week, in fact. There is always a player who goes off based on a favorable individual matchup.
- It's Just One Week - Above all of these matchup considerations, remember that last week's stats were just one week. If you are six weeks into the season and the player was great in week #6 but lousy in weeks one through five, ask yourself why. Why did the player go off? Maybe it's just one of those fluky things. Maybe they were an injury replacement. Maybe they had a great matchup. Who knows? It's important to realize that it is in fact only one week.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Regifting
Around this time of year in fantasy football gifts start to rain down from the heavens, falling in our laps. Short term injuries, one bad game, strange bounces of the ball, gameplan decisions.... Things like this can lead fantasy owners to drop good players in favor of the flavor of the day.
Don't let this happen to you.
However, I'm not here to tell you not to drop good players. I'm writing today to implore you not to not pick up good players.
Err, what I'm saying is this: When a player with value gets dropped by someone else, find a way to scoop them up. You can use that value later.
In one of my leagues Aaron Hernandez and Jeremy Maclin were both dropped a couple of weeks ago. I grabbed them both, even though this left me with three tight ends and an injured WR that I wouldn't use. I figured that those guys would have more value in a potential trade than your Daryl Richardson's and Andre Roberts' of the world.
And I was right. I ran into an issue where I had Doug Martin, DeMarco Murray, and Darren McFadden all on a bye week. My other RB's were upside plays like Andre Brown and Ben Tate and I wasn't about to start those guys. So, I packaged one of my other Tight Ends (Brandon Pettigrew) with Maclin and made a deal for two RB's who were getting significant playing time. Truth be told, they were both pretty bad even though they were getting a fair number of carries, so I was really selling Maclin and Pettigrew at a loss. The fact was that I needed a couple of RB's who would get touches so I had to make a deal. Besides, Maclin was like playing with house money anyway and Hernandez and Kyle Rudolph (my #3 TE) would be a fantastic combo at TE going forward. I wasn't losing anything.
It turned out that one of the RB's played well and the other didn't, but Brown and Tate predictably combined for exactly zero points. It was lucky that I had quality inventory to spend on a couple of middle-of-the-road fill in options.
The crazy thing is that my trading partner had Arian Foster and wasn't at all interested in Tate. Strange, that. I was hoping to expand the deal. But it goes to show that you always need to be playing the angles.
Pick up quality players and don't be afraid to do some regifting.
Don't let this happen to you.
However, I'm not here to tell you not to drop good players. I'm writing today to implore you not to not pick up good players.
Err, what I'm saying is this: When a player with value gets dropped by someone else, find a way to scoop them up. You can use that value later.
In one of my leagues Aaron Hernandez and Jeremy Maclin were both dropped a couple of weeks ago. I grabbed them both, even though this left me with three tight ends and an injured WR that I wouldn't use. I figured that those guys would have more value in a potential trade than your Daryl Richardson's and Andre Roberts' of the world.
And I was right. I ran into an issue where I had Doug Martin, DeMarco Murray, and Darren McFadden all on a bye week. My other RB's were upside plays like Andre Brown and Ben Tate and I wasn't about to start those guys. So, I packaged one of my other Tight Ends (Brandon Pettigrew) with Maclin and made a deal for two RB's who were getting significant playing time. Truth be told, they were both pretty bad even though they were getting a fair number of carries, so I was really selling Maclin and Pettigrew at a loss. The fact was that I needed a couple of RB's who would get touches so I had to make a deal. Besides, Maclin was like playing with house money anyway and Hernandez and Kyle Rudolph (my #3 TE) would be a fantastic combo at TE going forward. I wasn't losing anything.
It turned out that one of the RB's played well and the other didn't, but Brown and Tate predictably combined for exactly zero points. It was lucky that I had quality inventory to spend on a couple of middle-of-the-road fill in options.
The crazy thing is that my trading partner had Arian Foster and wasn't at all interested in Tate. Strange, that. I was hoping to expand the deal. But it goes to show that you always need to be playing the angles.
Pick up quality players and don't be afraid to do some regifting.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Danny Amendola: Broken Collarbone
Last night Danny Amendola
left the game with an apparent injury after diving to catch a pass.
Later he was seen on the sideline with his arm in a sling. It was
speculated that he may have a broken collarbone, a belief that was later
confirmed by Pro Football Talk via Twitter, according to a team source.Amendola has been a PPR sleeper for two years in a row and for two years in a row he has suffered a major injury. It is a frustrating development for a frustrating player to own. What should you do at this point?
Broken collarbones can take 4-6 weeks to heal, sometimes longer based on the severity of the break. To stash a receiver on your roster for that length of time at this point in the season would require that the receiver be an elite option at the position. Amendola was playing very well to be sure, but he isn’t elite. I would recommend that you give yourself a couple of days to learn the official prognosis from team doctors and prepare yourself for life without Amendola this year. If you happen to be in a league where players don’t “lock” after their game and you didn’t start him, you may have a window to pick someone up as a replacement before Sunday… but if you weren’t starting Amendola you probably won’t be starting anyone off of the wire either. If you have this option, look at future matchups for the best free agent value.
This news has impact on the rest of the Rams as well. It hurts Sam Bradford’s already-reduced value. If you have Bradford in a two-quarterback league you are probably stuck with him. In a league like that I hope you have at least three or four quarterbacks, including two options better than Bradford. If not, you may look to make a package deal to upgrade one of your other trigger men.
On the receiver side, Brandon Gibson gets the obvious value boost as he bumps up to the assumed number one wideout on the roster. But, let’s look at rookie Chris Givens as well. He is a rookie and he does like to drop passes (including a few last night), and despite the red flags there are reasons to buy low on this guy. He’s the fastest guy on the team and he’s hauled in a 50-yard bomb in each of the last two games. I think they will take some shots with Givens in future weeks as well, so if you are in a deep league you may take a chance on Givens.
I also wonder if Lance Kendricks gets some more love with Amendola out. Amendola is more of a volume guy than a big play target, so a lot of those shorter routes will now be filled with the tight end Kendricks. Again, you’ll need to be in a deeper league… but if you are he could be a profitable investment.
Best of luck this week, folks. And if you haven’t had a look at “The Program” – check it out by clicking here. It’s your source for more than seven hours of unshrouded fantasy football secrets, plus more, to unleash your inner fantasy football beast.
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