Hi Brainiacs... Once again I've got my NFL Barometer up at RotoWire.com. As usual, you need to be a subscriber but here is the link if you are: http://www.rotowire.com/football/showArticle.htm?id=16693
Easy-to-use fantasy sports strategy. That's what we are all about here at the Brain. Join fantasy sports veteran and former ESPN Producer Dave McKay as we reveal new ways to think about the game. @TalktotheBrain
Thursday, December 20, 2012
The Next Barometer
Hi Brainiacs... Once again I've got my NFL Barometer up at RotoWire.com. As usual, you need to be a subscriber but here is the link if you are: http://www.rotowire.com/football/showArticle.htm?id=16693
Friday, December 14, 2012
NFL Barometer
If you are a RotoWire subscriber you can read my latest NFL Barometer here: http://www.rotowire.com/football/showArticle.htm?id=16653
Thank you for all of your support with my adventures in fantasy writing... It means a lot. I'm very grateful for the opportunity to put some of my thoughts out there on a stage as large as RotoWire.
Best of luck to everyone who is still gunning for a championship in fantasy football! Bring home the trophy!
Thank you for all of your support with my adventures in fantasy writing... It means a lot. I'm very grateful for the opportunity to put some of my thoughts out there on a stage as large as RotoWire.
Best of luck to everyone who is still gunning for a championship in fantasy football! Bring home the trophy!
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Fantasy Football Championship
Championship week is almost here, folks! For most leagues, week 16 is the matchup that decides 1st place... and if you are reading this chances are you are in your league semi-finals this week. Either that, or you are a fantasy junkie like me. Either way, God bless ya.
I just wanted to underscore a bit of strategy that I wrote about in this space a couple of weeks ago because it is becoming more and more important as the time left in the season continues to compress.
At this point in week 15 your league has probably had waiver claims go through or at least the first round of FAAB bids. Consequently, you have a pretty good idea of what your starting lineup will look like this week and who will be on your bench.
So, take a look at those bench slots and let's put them to good use. There are only three main reasons why those slots are filled with the guys that they are:
That's it, folks. Assuming there are no keeper league considerations, if a guy isn't starting for you this week and they don't have any real chance to play for you next week then you can better use that slot.
So, here's what I want you to do: First, find the dead wood on your roster. Those are guys that are not going to start for you in week 15 or week 16 and have no impact on keepers for next year. They may have had promise early in the year, maybe they've got tough matchups, maybe they're banged up... whatever. I want you to examine your likely starting lineup for this week and also for next week. The players that aren't included in either lineup need to be replaced. Go to the wire and find guys that have a chance to start for you next week and grab them. If you can't do that, look at your likely competition next week and determine which free agents are most likely to help them against you. Use your bench spots to snag those guys before your competition does.
Simple as that. Every slot on your roster should be doing something for you at all times. Early in the year maybe you gamble on an injured guy that got cut... For example, I am now profiting from a waiver claim on Aaron Hernandez way back around week 4 or 5. You may also be insuring yourself against injury like handcuffing Bernard Pierce to Ray Rice. And, you may be looking toward next year in a keeper league.
Whatever it is, have a plan for every roster spot and adjust that plan as the season moves along. People do all sorts of unexplained things with their fantasy rosters and they wonder why they don't have enough options later in the year or in the playoffs. I still see way too many people carrying two kickers. It just makes me crazy... Why? For what purpose?!
Your strategy for your bench slots in week 15 should feel very different than in week 5.
Best of luck in those playoffs, folks! And, while you are here click on the email sign-up on the upper-left-hand side (where it says: "Be a Brainiac"). That, or to make it simpler you can just click here: Sign Up and Get More!
I just wanted to underscore a bit of strategy that I wrote about in this space a couple of weeks ago because it is becoming more and more important as the time left in the season continues to compress.
At this point in week 15 your league has probably had waiver claims go through or at least the first round of FAAB bids. Consequently, you have a pretty good idea of what your starting lineup will look like this week and who will be on your bench.
So, take a look at those bench slots and let's put them to good use. There are only three main reasons why those slots are filled with the guys that they are:
- You might be able to use them in week 16 because they have a good matchup.
- You are blocking your competition from filling a hole on their team against you, either this week or with a look ahead toward week 16.
- Keeper (or dynasty) league considerations.
That's it, folks. Assuming there are no keeper league considerations, if a guy isn't starting for you this week and they don't have any real chance to play for you next week then you can better use that slot.
So, here's what I want you to do: First, find the dead wood on your roster. Those are guys that are not going to start for you in week 15 or week 16 and have no impact on keepers for next year. They may have had promise early in the year, maybe they've got tough matchups, maybe they're banged up... whatever. I want you to examine your likely starting lineup for this week and also for next week. The players that aren't included in either lineup need to be replaced. Go to the wire and find guys that have a chance to start for you next week and grab them. If you can't do that, look at your likely competition next week and determine which free agents are most likely to help them against you. Use your bench spots to snag those guys before your competition does.
Simple as that. Every slot on your roster should be doing something for you at all times. Early in the year maybe you gamble on an injured guy that got cut... For example, I am now profiting from a waiver claim on Aaron Hernandez way back around week 4 or 5. You may also be insuring yourself against injury like handcuffing Bernard Pierce to Ray Rice. And, you may be looking toward next year in a keeper league.
Whatever it is, have a plan for every roster spot and adjust that plan as the season moves along. People do all sorts of unexplained things with their fantasy rosters and they wonder why they don't have enough options later in the year or in the playoffs. I still see way too many people carrying two kickers. It just makes me crazy... Why? For what purpose?!
Your strategy for your bench slots in week 15 should feel very different than in week 5.
Best of luck in those playoffs, folks! And, while you are here click on the email sign-up on the upper-left-hand side (where it says: "Be a Brainiac"). That, or to make it simpler you can just click here: Sign Up and Get More!
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
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Friday, December 7, 2012
What happened to Brandon Myers?
Brandon Myers was almost universally ranked in the Top 5 of tight ends for week 14. I personally have him in at least 4 leagues and started him every time. Needless to say, I'm in some playoff trouble in those leagues.
But could this have been prevented? Maybe. Let's discuss.
In this space I wrote an article about recency bias not that long ago. Recency bias says that we place too much focus on what has just happened and not enough importance on overall track records.
With Brandon Myers we had several weeks of about 50 receiving yards or so followed by an amazing output (14 receptions!) in week 13. We take this information and say that he is a guy that has been getting his quarterback's attention this year and is finally breaking through. Why would they go away from him in week 14? Right?
The problem is that Myers has been in the NFL for four years now and we aren't factoring in his first three years but rather just this year. There have to be reasons why he was basically unknown coming into 2012. Perhaps he is a big target with good hands, but he lacks lateral quickness or the ability to create separation from linebackers. I don't know that that is the case, but I would assume that there is some reason why he was invisible for his first three years in the league.
Let's say for a moment that the description I just wrote two sentences ago is accurate. If true, he is a guy that can catch a team (like the Browns in week 13) off-guard and amass great stats with a large number of targets. If the opponent does fail to game-plan for him he can find some space and do some damage. However, what if a team (like the Broncos in week 14) does game-plan for him? And, what if that team happens to have very quick linebackers? Well, in that case, if the description above is accurate Myers will have trouble finding space in which he can operate and the quarterback won't look for him.
If all of this is true, we should have identified Myers as clear-cut game-planning target by a pretty strong defense with good linebackers. His explosion in week 13 left him vulnerable in week 14 and therefore a poor start.
Look, if he was Tony Gonzalez you'd have a better understanding of how he would react to the game-planning. But with Myers there is insufficient data. The best prediction should have been that he would be taken out of the game by Denver. I should have seen it coming, but I didn't and now I've got to play catch-up in a few of my playoffs.
I hope this helps, and I hope you consider signing up for my list. Sign up and get more from the Brain: Click HERE!
But could this have been prevented? Maybe. Let's discuss.
In this space I wrote an article about recency bias not that long ago. Recency bias says that we place too much focus on what has just happened and not enough importance on overall track records.
With Brandon Myers we had several weeks of about 50 receiving yards or so followed by an amazing output (14 receptions!) in week 13. We take this information and say that he is a guy that has been getting his quarterback's attention this year and is finally breaking through. Why would they go away from him in week 14? Right?
The problem is that Myers has been in the NFL for four years now and we aren't factoring in his first three years but rather just this year. There have to be reasons why he was basically unknown coming into 2012. Perhaps he is a big target with good hands, but he lacks lateral quickness or the ability to create separation from linebackers. I don't know that that is the case, but I would assume that there is some reason why he was invisible for his first three years in the league.
Let's say for a moment that the description I just wrote two sentences ago is accurate. If true, he is a guy that can catch a team (like the Browns in week 13) off-guard and amass great stats with a large number of targets. If the opponent does fail to game-plan for him he can find some space and do some damage. However, what if a team (like the Broncos in week 14) does game-plan for him? And, what if that team happens to have very quick linebackers? Well, in that case, if the description above is accurate Myers will have trouble finding space in which he can operate and the quarterback won't look for him.
If all of this is true, we should have identified Myers as clear-cut game-planning target by a pretty strong defense with good linebackers. His explosion in week 13 left him vulnerable in week 14 and therefore a poor start.
Look, if he was Tony Gonzalez you'd have a better understanding of how he would react to the game-planning. But with Myers there is insufficient data. The best prediction should have been that he would be taken out of the game by Denver. I should have seen it coming, but I didn't and now I've got to play catch-up in a few of my playoffs.
I hope this helps, and I hope you consider signing up for my list. Sign up and get more from the Brain: Click HERE!
NFL Barometer on RotoWire
More big news, Brainiacs. I've been invited to be a regular writer of a featured article at RotoWire. The article is called the NFL Barometer and it is a long-time favorite among RotoWire subscribers.
I'd love for you all to go and check it out, but it is for subscribers... so I hope you either subscribe to RotoWire or will consider doing so.
Here is the link if you want to check it out: NFL Barometer
I'd love for you all to go and check it out, but it is for subscribers... so I hope you either subscribe to RotoWire or will consider doing so.
Here is the link if you want to check it out: NFL Barometer
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