Fantasy Baseball #1 Overall: Robinson Cano. Really.

Alright folks, this is going to be a little controversial so I thought I'd get in front of the wave of public anger that it is sure to invoke.  I'm ranking Robinson Cano #1 overall this year.

Not Mike Trout!?  Not Ryan Braun!?  What about Miguel Cabrera for goodness sake!?!?

Okay, let's back up a bit.  Here are the main criteria that I use to evaluate players:

• Consistency, track record
• Health history
• Park factor 
• Position scarcity
• Stage of career
• Surrounding lineup

Those are listed pretty much in the order of importance, though I will admit to bumping up position scarcity more often than I should.  Many experts don't see position scarcity as a very important factor when evaluating players.  They look only at raw statistics since all you are trying to do is compile the most statistics to win your league.

Fair enough, but I contend that the outfielder I will grab in the 2nd or 3rd round to pair with Cano will be a lot closer to the outfielder that I left on the board than any second baseman I would take to pair with that top outfielder.  The scarcity at 2B this year is really crazy, folks.  I just don't want to spend a 2nd or 3rd rounder on Ian Kinsler or Dustin Pedroia if I don't have to.  And after that it just falls off a cliff (though I do like Jason Kipnis and I think that Howard Kendrick will be a good value this year).

At outfielder, if you don't get Braun you can target guys like Jason Heyward, Adam Jones, Justin Upton, or Jay Bruce in the next several rounds.  There's a strong dropoff there, but not like the one at second base.  What I'm saying is that I'd rather have Cano and Heyward than Braun and Kinsler.

Now, a caveat.  If you pass up Trout in favor of Cano you are leaving a ton of stolen bases out of your squad's projection.  Historically SB's are coming from the middle infield and one of your outfielders, so you are going to have to supplement Cano with someone like Jose Reyes.  Keep that in mind.

I think with Cano you will get an average around .315 with about 30 HR's and more than 110 RBI.  He'll still give you solid runs at 2B (100?) and contribute a small number of SB's.  Those numbers are insane for 2B, but at this stage of his career he is a proven commodity that you can trust.

Which leads me to those other bullet points I listed.  Track record?  Excellent.  Healthy?  Absolutely.  Park factor?  One of the best (plus some great ones in-division).  Stage of career?  At 30 years old, he's in his prime.  Surrounding lineup?  I have my doubts about the average age on this team, but listen, it's the Yankees.

Add all of that up and throw in the competitive advantage you get at 2B versus your entire league and you have my #1 player for 2013.

I've got Cabrera #2.  He won the Triple Crown last year and plays third base, which is also a scarce position.  Yes, I will gladly take him if Cano is gone.  He can be a knucklehead, but even with a bit of regression his numbers are great across the board at 3B.

Braun?  Alleged PED issues from 2012 aside, this dude is a complete stud.  I see a regression in HR's, but he'll be in the neighborhood of 30/30 while hitting around .315 with about 220 in the R&R (Runs and RBI) stats.  Simply stated, he's better than Cano but being an outfielder drops him to #3.  I'd rather have the 2B or 3B and take my chances later at OF.  By the way, I'm not saying OF'ers are plentiful.  Far from it (especially if you start five).  I just think at the top of the draft where we are splitting hairs something like position scarcity can be the deciding factor.

Now Trout.  I don't believe he is in the same conversation as the first three and I'll explain why.  I do think his average is very much legit and that he'll hit around .320.  Also, the speed is real, even though his success rate was a bit higher last year than in the minors.  I've got him for 40-45 bags this year, and with that comes runs which ought to actually increase.  So, maybe around 135 runs?  The problem is the power surge we saw last year.  He hit 30 HR's with one coming every 18.6 AB's.  In the minors (including the lower levels) he only hit 23 in 1,117 AB's.  One HR every 48.6 AB's.  So, I see the HR's dropping significantly and with it I see his RBI cratering as well.  Honestly, 18 HR and 65 RBI seems generous when you look at what he did in the minors and his likely leadoff position in the order.  Besides everyone is doing their homework on him now.  He's a marked man.

What Mike Trout did in 2012 was the most amazing thing in the Internet era this side of Barry Bonds.  His performance was historic and breathtaking.  I still have him in the top 10, I just can't recommend him top 5 because I don't believe he can repeat it.  Especially the HR and RBI.

100% Running Back Bench

With the fantasy football season over, I've been doing some thinking about the draft and the waiver wire and how teams evolve throughout the year.

Doesn't it seem like wide receivers and tight ends can emerge from out of thin air?  TY Hilton and Cecil Shorts?  Kyle Rudolph and Brandon Myers?  The great proven commodities tend to deliver unless injured, but the mid-round plays aren't usually any better than the guys you get off the wire.

It's pretty much the same with kickers and defenses, but we don't need to really spend any time there.

But what about quarterbacks and running backs?  Okay, quarterbacks first.  The top end QB's tend to deliver and some of the mid-round guys in any given season will explode for great seasons.  The bottom 1/3 (maybe close to 1/2) of starting NFL QB's are usually about what we expect.  So, on draft day it's best to either invest in a super stud like Drew Brees or drop two mid-round picks on the Peyton Manning's and Robert Griffin III's of the world.  If you go for the latter, I suggest back-to-back picks in the 5th-7th rounds.  If you had employed this sort of strategy in 2012, you probably would have ended up with two of:  Manning, Manning, Griffin, Cutler, and Roethlisberger.  Something like that.  Obviously, Eli and Cutler weren't so good and Rothlisberger was only good when healthy... but Peyton and Griffin were gold.  Taking a shot on any two of those guys in just about any year is a great way to go.  The best part of this strategy?  Your first 4 or 5 picks were spent on studs at RB and WR.

That has typically been my M.O., but I'm thinking about a new way. Let's think for a second about running backs.  They are a little more dependable early in the draft, but frankly not that much more.  Your mid-round picks might deliver strong seasons for you 40% of the time and your early-round picks maybe 60% of the time.  The other big thing with RB's is that they are the rarest of all commodities in fantasy football.  (Real quick breakdown - Let's say for example that you have a 12-team league that starts two RB's and a flex.  That league will be starting approximately 30 RB's per week.  There are 32 teams in the NFL and they typically only have one main fantasy-worthy RB each.  In bye weeks there are only 28 teams playing.  There are eight bye weeks in the fantasy regular season.  There's just not enough of the RB resource available, which explains why people give starts to bad RB's and backup RB's all the time.)

Okay, so let's go back to the new concept.  Let's say for a moment that you get Drew Brees in round 1 of a 16-round draft.  Let's also say for a moment that you agree with the concept that stud WR's and TE's will deliver and other good ones will emerge from nowhere during the season.  Further, let's say that you agree with the concept that stud RB's are somewhat unpredictable and mid-round RB's are often really good values.  With all of that in mind, I present the 100% RB Bench.

Here's what you do...  Brees in round one.  You draft two WR's and one TE at some point in the first five rounds.  So, after five rounds you have one of the top QB's, two very strong WR's, a solid and predictable TE, plus one strong RB (probably from the 3rd round, maybe 4th).  In 2012 it might have been Brees, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Reggie Bush, and Owen Daniels.  Look, hindsight is 20/20... but that is the sort of thing I would have done with this strategy last year.

In round 15 you get the kicker you want.  In round 14 you get a top 6 defense.  And, the big thing...  In rounds six through 13 plus round 16 you draft all running backs.  So, yes, 16 rounds and ten running backs.  If you had done this in 2012 you would have had all sorts of guys like Shonn Greene, Stevan Ridley, and C.J. Spiller.  The problem is that you would have gotten a lot of guys like Jonathan Stewart and Donald Brown too.  It's not a fully-baked concept, but I wanted to share some of the things I've been noodling on.

I think at this point that it would still be a better option to do more of a hybrid approach.  If in 2013 you took Ray Rice in round one and you used your 6th and 7th round picks on Tony Romo and Andrew Luck you would be better off.  Let's say you took A.J. Green in round two, Dez Bryant in round three, Aaron Hernandez in round four, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis in round five.  Then, seven of your last nine picks are all RB's to pair with Rice and BJGE.  That is the sort of draft that could really happen this August and it is the sort of squad that would win a championship.  The trick with this roster is to jettison under-peforming RB's for emerging receivers just before the bye weeks start.  It gives you a few games to evaluate what is happening with these mid-round RB's.  I like the sound of that draft a lot.

Just some thoughts about football before we turn our focus to baseball.  Pitchers and catchers in like five weeks, people!