Okay, folks... The topic today is something we covered last year, but I think it is important, so Ima gonna hit it again.
In my FSIC AL-Only league draft that I wrote about recently I took Jeff Keppinger in the 19th round. To me, Keppinger is the poster child for a player who "isn't going to hurt you." At least that's what they say.
But what are people really saying there?
What they are saying is that he'll hit for average but not do anything else. In other words, when people talk about a player who isn't going to hurt you they are usually talking about a player who does well in qualitative stats (batting average, ERA, WHIP) but doesn't contribute elsewhere. I'm not sure exactly why this is so, but I do know that nothing hurts quite so much as seeing one of your players go 0 for 6 with zero runs, RBI, or stolen bases. Keppinger will pretty much never do that to you.
However...
Easy-to-use fantasy sports strategy. That's what we are all about here at the Brain. Join fantasy sports veteran and former ESPN Producer Dave McKay as we reveal new ways to think about the game. @TalktotheBrain
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
FSIC AL-Only Draft Strategy
What's up, Brainiacs! Believe it or not, we have already entered drafting season in fantasy baseball. This past Sunday the FSIC guys conducted the 2013 AL-Only draft and I was honored to be included once again this year.
Like last year, there were some snafus with the drafting software... but it turned out just fine. In 2012 I had the wheel pick at the end of the first round and auto-drafted Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez even though I didn't want to take pitching that early. After cashing in on a handful of great starts by King Felix, I parlayed him into Mark Teixeria, Jose Valverde, Dayan Viciedo, and a couple of other roster improvements. It may not sound like a lot, but my 1B situation was atrocious and I had zero closers plus a couple of part-timers in the OF. It worked out very well, and I was able to finish in a respectable 6th place (and #3 in pitching even without most of Felix's season).
That's nice and all for my first year in a league of this caliber, but it left me wanting more. The competition is fierce, but I'd like to see if I can push for the title in year two.
I devised a strategy for this league and was able to stick to it for the most part. In a league like this, the rarest commodity is typically the middle infield slot (specifically MI, not SS or 2B as much) and the outfield. I made up my mind to prioritize outfielders, but not until I had my three middle infield slots filled. That meant I was de-prioritizing pitching and some of the corner infield slots, and I was okay with that.
Let's have a look at each position and how I addressed them:
Like last year, there were some snafus with the drafting software... but it turned out just fine. In 2012 I had the wheel pick at the end of the first round and auto-drafted Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez even though I didn't want to take pitching that early. After cashing in on a handful of great starts by King Felix, I parlayed him into Mark Teixeria, Jose Valverde, Dayan Viciedo, and a couple of other roster improvements. It may not sound like a lot, but my 1B situation was atrocious and I had zero closers plus a couple of part-timers in the OF. It worked out very well, and I was able to finish in a respectable 6th place (and #3 in pitching even without most of Felix's season).
That's nice and all for my first year in a league of this caliber, but it left me wanting more. The competition is fierce, but I'd like to see if I can push for the title in year two.
I devised a strategy for this league and was able to stick to it for the most part. In a league like this, the rarest commodity is typically the middle infield slot (specifically MI, not SS or 2B as much) and the outfield. I made up my mind to prioritize outfielders, but not until I had my three middle infield slots filled. That meant I was de-prioritizing pitching and some of the corner infield slots, and I was okay with that.
Let's have a look at each position and how I addressed them:
Jose Reyes and Park Factor
We were just talking about position scarcity in this space, and I've already delved pretty deeply into my thoughts on Robinson Cano, so I thought I'd expand that a bit with another player. Jose Reyes.
Reyes is a top tier option at a scarce position, but there are other reasons for optimism with him. Primarily what I'm talking about is "park factor."
What is park factor, you ask? It's hugely important and vastly under-rated and under-reported. Park factor is a look at the effect of the dimensions (or altitude, as the case may be) of the ballpark in which the player is playing. A strong hitter with a pitcher's park as their home field may only be average, and vice versa. And, it's not only the home park but you can also take into consideration intra-division ballpark factors as well. For example, Robinson Cano plays in the best AL ballpark for left-handed power, but he's also got a few extra games in Baltimore (great for LH power) and Toronto (better than average) and Boston (suppresses power but improves batting average for lefties).
Reyes is a top tier option at a scarce position, but there are other reasons for optimism with him. Primarily what I'm talking about is "park factor."
What is park factor, you ask? It's hugely important and vastly under-rated and under-reported. Park factor is a look at the effect of the dimensions (or altitude, as the case may be) of the ballpark in which the player is playing. A strong hitter with a pitcher's park as their home field may only be average, and vice versa. And, it's not only the home park but you can also take into consideration intra-division ballpark factors as well. For example, Robinson Cano plays in the best AL ballpark for left-handed power, but he's also got a few extra games in Baltimore (great for LH power) and Toronto (better than average) and Boston (suppresses power but improves batting average for lefties).
Thursday, February 14, 2013
First Base Strategy: Rizzo, Davis, Hosmer, Freeman
I've been thinking about position scarcity and the quality of 2nd level and 3rd level options at different positions. So, if you will permit me, I'd like to think out loud for a little while and share with you a strategy I've been noodling.
Regarding position scarcity, my feelings about second base are well documented at this point. However, to recap... It's Robinson Cano or bust for me. He is a super stud with every "green flag" (we talk about those a lot around here - the opposite of red flags) imaginable. After Cano, there are question marks everywhere. Everywhere, folks. Second base is a wasteland. You can make yourself optimistic about Kipnis or Kendrick or someone else, but the bottom line is that even if you hit on one of them and they deliver at their ceiling they are nowhere near Cano's likely projection.
Regarding position scarcity, my feelings about second base are well documented at this point. However, to recap... It's Robinson Cano or bust for me. He is a super stud with every "green flag" (we talk about those a lot around here - the opposite of red flags) imaginable. After Cano, there are question marks everywhere. Everywhere, folks. Second base is a wasteland. You can make yourself optimistic about Kipnis or Kendrick or someone else, but the bottom line is that even if you hit on one of them and they deliver at their ceiling they are nowhere near Cano's likely projection.
Friday, February 8, 2013
Brett Lawrie, Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana
What do Brett Lawrie, Eric Hosmer, and Carlos Santana all have in common? They all burst onto the scene in 2011, where high draft picks in 2012, and disappointed fantasy owners everywhere.
What can we learn from this? Track record, people. You have to look at what they've done over the course of their career and not take a small number of at bats as proof of what they will do going forward.
Brett Lawrie only had 150 AB's in the big leagues in 2011, but he made the most of them. He had an OPS of .953 which was good enough for an OPS+ of 153. In addition he tallied 7 stolen bases, and given a full season, that rate would look like nearly 30 for the year. All of this at third base? Yes, please! Imagine what he would do in that lineup, in that ballpark, for more than 500 AB's!
We should have seen it coming because his minor league numbers were actually significantly worse than what he did in the bigs in those 150 AB's. In the minors he had a career OPS of just .850, which was even buoyed up significantly by more than 22% of those minor league at bats coming in Las Vegas, an extremely hitter-friendly environment. The speed could be legit with 62 bags in 1282 minor league AB's, but he was caught 28 times so his success rate has not been great.
What can we learn from this? Track record, people. You have to look at what they've done over the course of their career and not take a small number of at bats as proof of what they will do going forward.
Brett Lawrie only had 150 AB's in the big leagues in 2011, but he made the most of them. He had an OPS of .953 which was good enough for an OPS+ of 153. In addition he tallied 7 stolen bases, and given a full season, that rate would look like nearly 30 for the year. All of this at third base? Yes, please! Imagine what he would do in that lineup, in that ballpark, for more than 500 AB's!
We should have seen it coming because his minor league numbers were actually significantly worse than what he did in the bigs in those 150 AB's. In the minors he had a career OPS of just .850, which was even buoyed up significantly by more than 22% of those minor league at bats coming in Las Vegas, an extremely hitter-friendly environment. The speed could be legit with 62 bags in 1282 minor league AB's, but he was caught 28 times so his success rate has not been great.
Thursday, February 7, 2013
The Backup Quarterback
Just a quick thought about the backup quarterback. We've been over the various approaches to the quarterback position in this space quite a bit, so I won't rehash too much here. But, I do have one additional wrinkle for you.
And, I realize that football season is over. The flood of baseball will continue shortly, my friends... promise.
With the quarterback position I am an advocate of using back-to-back picks at QB in the 5th-7th round. I've been over the reasons why a few times here, but the bottom line is that you cover contingencies for injuries, bye weeks, and (most importantly) duds. Chances are very good in that range that you will end up with at least one stellar quarterback. This year it may have been someone like Robert Griffin III or Peyton Manning.
Now then, the other option is to use a top pick on a known quantity - Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady. If you do that, you should be all set other than the bye week for the full year. No fuss, no muss. This option gives you virtually guaranteed production as long as there is no major injury, so it can be very effective. I mean, would you have rather drafted Drew Brees or Chris Johnson in 2012?
Right... But what do you do about the QB2 slot? Do you even draft one? Conventional wisdom seems to be shifting to say that you should use that roster slot to take a flier on another mid-round running back instead of wasting room on your roster with a guy that will never play. In other words, in 2012 would you rather have Brees and Griffin or Brees and a chance at a running back that might be someone like either Donald Brown or Stevan Ridley? Hit or miss.
Okay, granted that QB2 could have been Philip Rivers or Jay Cutler, but I would contend that your 7th or 8th round pick has a higher chance to hit on a quarterback than a running back... Besides, your bench should be full of lottery ticket running backs, so why not use that slot on a QB2 who has better odds of being a stud?
The main reason why not, as noted, is that that guy probably won't play for you more than once and we always need all the running backs we can get. But think about what would happen if you landed Griffin or Manning instead of a shot at one more mid-round RB. Having two of the top eight (for example) quarterbacks gives you tremendous bargaining power as the trading deadline approaches. What do you think that Philip Rivers owner would give you for RGIII? Certainly something way better than the BenJarvus Green-Ellis that you may have pulled, even if you hit on that mid-round running back pick.
Just some thoughts, folks.... I'm still noodling football even though I'm diving head-first into baseball. Pitchers and catchers in less than a week!
And, I realize that football season is over. The flood of baseball will continue shortly, my friends... promise.
With the quarterback position I am an advocate of using back-to-back picks at QB in the 5th-7th round. I've been over the reasons why a few times here, but the bottom line is that you cover contingencies for injuries, bye weeks, and (most importantly) duds. Chances are very good in that range that you will end up with at least one stellar quarterback. This year it may have been someone like Robert Griffin III or Peyton Manning.
Now then, the other option is to use a top pick on a known quantity - Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady. If you do that, you should be all set other than the bye week for the full year. No fuss, no muss. This option gives you virtually guaranteed production as long as there is no major injury, so it can be very effective. I mean, would you have rather drafted Drew Brees or Chris Johnson in 2012?
Right... But what do you do about the QB2 slot? Do you even draft one? Conventional wisdom seems to be shifting to say that you should use that roster slot to take a flier on another mid-round running back instead of wasting room on your roster with a guy that will never play. In other words, in 2012 would you rather have Brees and Griffin or Brees and a chance at a running back that might be someone like either Donald Brown or Stevan Ridley? Hit or miss.
Okay, granted that QB2 could have been Philip Rivers or Jay Cutler, but I would contend that your 7th or 8th round pick has a higher chance to hit on a quarterback than a running back... Besides, your bench should be full of lottery ticket running backs, so why not use that slot on a QB2 who has better odds of being a stud?
The main reason why not, as noted, is that that guy probably won't play for you more than once and we always need all the running backs we can get. But think about what would happen if you landed Griffin or Manning instead of a shot at one more mid-round RB. Having two of the top eight (for example) quarterbacks gives you tremendous bargaining power as the trading deadline approaches. What do you think that Philip Rivers owner would give you for RGIII? Certainly something way better than the BenJarvus Green-Ellis that you may have pulled, even if you hit on that mid-round running back pick.
Just some thoughts, folks.... I'm still noodling football even though I'm diving head-first into baseball. Pitchers and catchers in less than a week!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)