Battle the Brain at FanDuel

Here you go, Brainiacs!  Another chance to take me on for fantasy baseball supremacy!

Click here!  $10 gets you in...  Prizes include a trip to Vegas and $1,000.

Also, as usual... if you beat me, I'll post your smack talk to my thousands of followers on Twitter!  :)  Good luck!

http://goo.gl/QkDRu

Chris Davis to Infinity

Would it really be all that strange to start predicting 60 home runs for Chris Davis?  I mean, I know we aren't supposed to predict numbers that high... but seriously.  Dude is mashing.

And, he's not just mashing but he's exhibiting amazing balance, patience, and plate coverage.  He doesn't just punish mistake pitches.  He isn't just pulling the inside fastball down the line.  This guy is hitting against the shift, hitting to the opposite field, moving runners over.

And, as a result, he's hitting for average.  You know, to go with all of the power numbers.  Davis is hitting .359 and leading all of baseball in OPS with 1.214.  That just can't continue, can it?

Well, no...

Uh...  Yes and no...

Some yes..

Okay listen, he's got a .392 BABIP so far this year which indicates that he's been a bit lucky with the base hits.  But he's got a career BABIP of .342 so it's not too terribly far off.  A high BABIP makes sense for someone with super-human planet of Krypton strength.  Like Davis.  When he puts the ball in play it's coming at you faster than a speeding bullet.

The average is sure to come down, but even if he hits .300 the rest of the way he's going to finish the year with an average around .320.  Which is insane.

And, did I mention power?  He's on pace for 59 home runs and 156 RBI.  It just can't continue, right?  He's hit one extra base hit every 5.92 plate appearances this year.  In his minor league career he got one every 7.75 plate appearances and so far in the majors it's one every 9.5 PA's.  So, I wouldn't think that his current rate can continue.

If he gets 450 more PA's this year and gets one XBH for every 8 PA's, you're talking about 56 more XBH's and 93 for the year.  If 30 of those additional XBH's go for homers, he'll get 49 for the season.

It's crazy to say that 49 is a reasonable number, but that's what I'm saying.

And regarding batting average, this is a guy who hit .318 over more than 2,000 PA's in the minors.  I believe that the power and the average are both legit.  It's not far-fetched to say he ends up hitting .320 with 49 dingers this year.

One last thing about Davis.  For the first time in his major league career he has a set every-day position.  Last year he was a mainstay in the lineup but he played all over the diamond.  In Texas he was yanked all over the place including to and from the farm.  This year the Orioles said, "Chris we believe in you.  You will be the first baseman all year.  We live and die with you.  No need to ever look over your shoulder."  For some people that is what it takes to get comfortable and produce.  Maybe Davis is one of those guys.

I hate to keep harping on his minor league numbers, but that is the last time he was this comfortable.  And, in the minors he was epic.  His MiLB numbers were positively Andruw Jones-ian.  (Which is to say, more than merely amazing.  He wasn't just a hot hitting prospect.  His MiLB production was some of the best ever.)

So, if you could get him in trade for something like Edwin Encarnacion plus Andrew Cashner you have to do it.  The owner in your league with Davis may think he's selling high.  You're going to have to deal a very good 1B plus something like a quality starter or some other piece of good value.  Don't get too carried away, because he's likely to go for .300 and 30 HR the rest of the way... which is great, but he will regress just a bit.

Adrian Gonzalez plus Max Scherzer, maybe?

FanDuel with the Brain

Here we go...  It's Duel time, Brainiacs!!

That's right, folks... It's another duel with the Brain.  Click the logo, or click here to join.  It's ten bucks.  If you beat me, I'll post your comments here and re-tweet your trash talk on Twitter.

And listen, I don't mind promising that since I'm feeling pretty confident today.  I've got a good grasp on today's action over at FanDuel, and I'll give you some of my thoughts right here in a few seconds.

If you aren't familiar with daily fantasy games, just think of it as a one-day fantasy season with huge prizes.  Lots of fun, no commitment.'

Tonight's prizes:

1. First Prize:  A seat in the prestigious DFBC Finals, plus a trip to Las Vegas!!
2. Second Prize:  A cool $1,000.
3. Third Prize: $700
4. Top 249 get paid... $20 on the low end, which is double the entry fee.

Here are a few thoughts and tips to get you started in our matchup and the other games you might play at FanDuel:

• First, about the interface itself.  I really like the way you can click a button for each game.  When you do the players for those two teams will appear in the box below, and only the position you have selected if you have narrowed it down in that way.  So in other words, you can click on the Pitchers button and then click on "WAS @ SDP" to see who's going in that matchup.  And, you can do the same for favorable hitting matchups, like "SFG @ COL" for example.
• Gio Gonzalez is pitching in San Diego tonight which is great, but he costs $8,400.  I think that is a bit too expensive to keep you competitive elsewhere.  I'm leaning toward Jaime Garcia at home for only $6,900 or Jarrod Parker in Oakland for only $5,200.
• Pablo Sandoval has been on fire and he's in Colorado tonight.  That's $3,600 well spent.
• It's an interesting night tonight where the worst starting pitchers seem to be pitching in favorable ballparks - Burch Smith for the Padres and Vance Worley in Minnesota.  We've got some of the reverse, too:  Madison Bumgarner in Colorado and Cliff Lee in Philly.
• Bumgarner might be the worst value of the night at a lofty $8,800.  Too rich for me.
• Looking at the cheapest players, I was thinking of Ben Revere... but he's not playing again tonight.  Look elsewhere, Brainiacs.

Just a few thoughts my friends...  Weigh in with your comments.  What do you think some good values are tonight?

It should be lots of fun.... I hope to see you over at FanDuel.  And, did I mention you can win a trip to Vegas?  $1,000?  That the top 249 people get paid?

C'mon, give it a click and see if you can beat me:  http://goo.gl/QkDRu

FanDuel: Beat the Brain

Are you good enough to beat the Brain?!?  Well, let's find out!  The good people at FanDuel have set up a contest today so we can see who the real brain is around here.

Head on over to this link to sign up...  It's ten bucks to play, and the top three players win $600, $450, and $350 respectively.  (With lots more getting a payout, too!)

Let's see who the real brain is: CLICK HERE

And, if you are new to daily fantasy leagues, don't worry... They are lots of fun and easy to jump into.  You don't have the long-term commitment of a regular league.  Give it a try.

And, to get you started, here are a few thoughts for you on the game and today's matchups:

• Pitching matchups and park factors are critical.  You are only dealing with one specific game, so today's matchup and the effect of the ballpark are two of the most critical elements in picking your roster.  One obvious example is Clayton Kershaw at San Francisco.  Great park factor with a great pitcher.  Pitchers are expensive, though... so finding a cheaper alternative that still has a great situation today may be the way to go.  Some examples there are Wade Miley (in San Diego for $1,800 less) and Doug Fister (at Houston for $2,500 less than Kershaw).
• Also, keep an eye on recent performance.  Some hitters are streaky and are starting to get into a groove.  Nate McLouth is a great example of this, though his price today at FanDuel reflects his hot streak ($4,300).  Nate's got a pretty good matchup with Jason Vargas but a lower quality park factor in Anaheim.  My belief is that he will earn his money on your team.
• Be careful with hot streaks though.  The trick can be trying to estimate when they will end.  Evan Gattis has been crushing the ball this year and he's got a great matchup against Shawn Marcum, who just doesn't seem to be all the way back from his injury.  My problem there is that the hot streak has been going on for a few weeks now and it's got to stop sometime.  Plus, no one had heard of Evan Gattis three weeks ago and it's not the best park factor.  Plus, he'll cost you $3,500 for your FanDuel roster.  Salvador Perez can be had for only $2,400.  One thought on Perez: You should check the weather report... Looks like rain again tonight in KC.
• Which leads me to another thought...  Pay attention to the weather report and spread out your risk.  Looking at the weather is mostly about rain, but you could also take a look at temperature.  For example, it's supposed to be 37 degrees in Denver tonight.  Nevertheless, I don't think that trumps the matchup and park factor so start your Tampa Rays in the thin air against Jeff Francis.
• Also, look for superstars at low costs.  Chase Headley (mashing the ball) is only $3,600 and Adam Jones (good matchup) is just $3,900.

Okay, folks... That's all for now.  I may post more later but I can't give away my secrets all at once.  Head over to FanDuel (click here) and show me who's boss!