Fantasy Pros: Bold Predictions

One more time, Brainiacs...  The good people at Fantasy Pros asked me to contribute to another article for their site.  This one was about bold predictions.

You can check it out if you click here.

The predictions in the feature have very different levels of boldness from the obvious to the insane, so check it out. 

I wanted to go with something that is unlikely to happen but defensible.  I chose to plant a flag on Cameron Maybin getting 15 home runs to go with 35 steals and a .270 batting average.  The 35 steals isn't all that bold but it's a lot more than he did last year.  The 15 homers would be a career high and .270 would be his highest average in the big leagues.  He only hit .243 in 2012.

Maybin is 26 years old this year which is a great time to break out for someone with his level of experience.  In his last two significant stops at AAA he hit .338 and .319, respectively.  And, while the predicted numbers are unlikely, it's possible that he starts to put it all together this year and breaks out.  Hence the bold prediction.

Springs Stats Mean Nuthin'

The conventional wisdom of the experts is to ignore statistics of Spring Training.  There is a kernel of truth to it, which I will explain, but I believe there are a few compelling reasons why you should pay attention to ST stats.

There are, in my view, three reasons why people oppose any reliance on ST stats: (1) Small number of at bats and innings pitched; (2) Varying levels of competition; and, (3) Different stages of preparedness.  These are all absolutely valid.

The number of at bats and the number of innings pitched in the Spring are just too small to go crazy over.  Matt Wieters is hitting over .400 this Spring with nice power.  He didn't turn into Ted Williams over the winter, folks.

It's also true that you don't know what level of competition these stats are coming against.  Jason Castro has six Spring Training home runs, which is great.  But, did he hit them off of Justin Verlander or did they come off of the "organizational depth" type of guys brought over from the rookie camp to throw an inning or two?  The fact that

Fantasy Pros: Overvalued Players

Hi Brainiacs!  This week I was honored to be included once again in a feature at FantasyPros.com.  This one is the flip side of last week's, now discussing this year's overvalued players.

I was asked to write about Ryan Howard, and I was thrilled to be able to contribute my thoughts.  It would appear that I am a lot lower on Howard than just about anyone else, but there are good reasons.  There is some hope that at the age of 33 he'll start hitting again like he did a few years ago, but the fact is that his floor (worst case scenario) is incredibly low. 

Howard was limited to just 260 AB's last year due to an achilles injury and he was only able to hit .219 with 28 runs scored.  This performance was after already seeing his BA dip to .253 when he was still healthy in 2011.  But it's not just his BA that is suffering, but also his runs scored.  Footspeed affects both, and you can't tell me that the achilles injury didn't damage his wheels.  This is a guy who has averaged 98 runs per season over his career and last year was only on pace for about 60 or so.  The fact is that he will absolutely kill you in two categories, even if his home runs and RBI bounce back this year.  And, frankly, I'm willing to bet that Mark Reynolds beats him in both of those categories.  Heck, maybe all five.

My projection for Howard is a .239 BA, 31 HR, 91 RBI, 68 R, and 0 SB.  That is nowhere near 8th round production, but that is where you'd have to draft him.  No thanks, folks.

Here's the link if you want to check out all of the experts' blurbs: http://www.fantasypros.com/2013/03/overvalued-players/

Fantasy Pros: Undervalued Players

Hey Brainiacs!  I was invited to contribute to a feature over at FantasyPros.com about undervalued players.

The article lists a bunch of players who are more highly valued by the experts than they are going in drafts.  In other words, their ADP is later than where the experts think they should be going so these guys are likely to be values for you.

The player I was asked to comment on was Brett Gardner.  While he might not be my number one pick for undervalued player, it would appear that I like him a lot more than his average draft position.  You can read the blurb in the article, but the basic point is that he will be a premier source for stolen bases as well as runs.  He'll hurt you in RBI (meaning he'll get a lot less than the average performer at the position) but he'll be reasonable in batting average (.270-ish) and home runs (maybe 8-10 on the high end, with a bit of luck).

Anyway, I had fun writing the blurb in defense of Gardner in the 9th round.  I hope to do it again!  Here's the link:  http://www.fantasypros.com/2013/03/undervalued-players/

Keeper League Trade

In my previous post I mentioned that I have Jason Kipnis in three leagues already this year.  Well, I just did it again with Jose Reyes.  I wanted to explain the parameters of the deal and my thought process for making the trade.

First of all, the league.  This is a 20-team mixed league with 10 keepers plus three minor leaguers.  The draft is an auction with just $200, minus the value of your keepers.  My keepers in this league were at $62 before the trade, so I was going to be working with $138 to fill 14 spots.  There is a fair amount of inflation with this league due to the number of keepers, but that is mitigated somewhat by the large number of teams and smaller auction budgets.  Resources are scarce in a 20-team league and my belief is that especially limited resources like catchers, shortstops, and closers are highly valuable.  This is why I'm keeping Brandon League.  The conventional wisdom is that Kenley Jansen takes that job from him, but until he does League is as good as gold.

We only have three outfielders (albeit position-specific - LF, CF, RF) and no MI's or CI's, so that reduces the crush on those components.  It's a Yahoo-style league with a few tweaks.  It's got a great commissioner and tremendous competition...  I really enjoy the league and heartily recommend something this deep for those of you who love fantasy.

So, a rundown of my keepers before the trade:

• J. Montero - $5
• Kipnis - $17
• Kendrick - $7
• C. Davis - $1
• Headley - $1
• Heyward - $24
• C. Maybin - $1
• Morrow - $2
• League - $3
• Perkins - $1

I've also got Miguel Montero for $11, but I think he misses the cut.  

Okay, so here are the players involved in the deal:

Jason Kipnis: Should I be concerned?

I drafted Jason Kipnis in both of my expert leagues so far and I have him in my 20-team keeper league as well.  Last year he only hit .257 with just 14 home runs, though he did swipe 31 bags.

The problem with that stat line is that he never came close to that number of steals in any previous season and it inflates his price on draft day.  A lot.  Okay, so color me concerned.

Here we have a second baseman who hits for a low average and a moderate amount of power who produced one valuable number last year.  And that number, the steals, does not appear to be repeatable based on track record.  Concerned?  Nervous?  In a word - Idunno.

I do know this - second base is a very shallow position and Kipnis was a highly regarded prospect who set the world on fire in the first half last year.  Did he hit a rookie wall?  Will he be better prepared this year?  Maybe, but I'd really like to dig deeper than that if it's okay with you.

Let's delve into each statistic and see what we can project for a 26-year-old in his second full season:

FBIL Expert League Draft

Monday night was the Fantasy Baseball Insiders League draft and I was fortunate enough to be included in the league among some luminaries in the fantasy baseball world.  My man Jeff Boggis of Fantasy Sports Empires has launched a site that will contain updates on the league as the season progresses, which should be a lot of fun.  I'll include the link at the bottom so you can check in on us.

It is a 12-team mixed league with 29 roster slots.  Starting positions include two catchers, five outfielders, a corner infielder, and a middle infielder, plus all of the other usual suspects.

Here at the Brain we focus on strategy and tactics, so I'd like to give you my thoughts in that regard going into this draft.  I'll tell you about the actual players in a minute and how they hopefully fit into the strategy as well as the spots where I didn't hit the goal.  I definitely reached in a few rounds with what seemed like a very fast timer.  It always seemed like I was under 30 seconds to go with my picks, and even though I got them all in on time there were several rounds where I grabbed someone from my queue a round or two early.  I figured it was better to reach a little on a guy I like than to let the auto-pick give me the best available player.

Lots and lots of detailed strategy and analysis after the break...