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Thursday, August 14, 2014

32 Bust Candidates

I am thinking about Dwayne Bowe today.  Here's a guy who has shown that he's got some serious skills, but he just seems to struggle to consistently put it all together.  He was awesome in the Chiefs' playoff game last year and he's really the only game in town as far as top end pass-catchers go in Andy Reid's offense.  But man, I just don't know.  He really wasn't very good last year with 57 receptions on 105 targets.  I just can't believe that he's going to produce this year.

And Greg Jennings is going three and a half rounds later.

Let's see if we can do this same thing for every team in the league:

Arizona - Larry Fitzgerald.  Look, Fitz will be really good again this year but I believe Michael Floyd emerges as the #1.  Floyd is going 12 picks later.

Atlanta - Jacquizz Rodgers.  I don't believe that Rodgers will do anything this year, frankly.  Donald Brown is going at almost exactly the same pick.

Baltimore - Ray Rice.  How is he still going in the late 4th round?  I expected to get Rice as a super bargain this year but it doesn't look like the case.  He was horrible last year, there ain't much tread left on the tires, plus he's suspended for two games.  The next five RB's off the board are CJ, Joique, Tate, Miller, and Ridley.  I will take any of them, plus Richardson who is being taken almost exactly where Rice is.

Buffalo - Sammy Watkins.  Look guys, it's Sammy.  Sixth round for a rookie WR with a suspect QB and mediocre offensive line?  Too rich for my blood.  Terrance Williams, Reggie Wayne, and Kendall Wright are all going later.

Carolina - Jonathan Stewart.  Why, Brainiacs, why?  Stewart won't help you.  Move along.  I realize it's the 13th round, but please take Donald Brown instead.

Chicago - Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.  I'm totally hedging my bet here.  All I know is if all of the weapons in this offense get anywhere close to their projections Jay Cutler is a first round pick next year.  I'll take a good RB ahead of them every time, like a Gio or Ellington.  At WR I'd rather have Antonio Brown, which seems crazy but I'm just drawn to guys that get the full load.

Cincinnati - Jeremy Hill.  He could produce this year, but he's a rookie and Gio is the man.  I'd rather have D-Will or Andre Williams a couple of picks later or maybe wait a round and gamble on Khiry instead.

Cleveland - Terrance West.  Cleveland is a tough one.  Everyone there seems fairly valued, but I think I'll wait 13 or 14 picks for my high-upside rookie RB and take Hyde or Freeman instead. (Though I really do like West behind a fragile Ben Tate.)

Dallas - Jason Witten.  I'd rather take Jordan Reed nine picks later.

Denver - Peyton Manning.  Yes, I'm on that train.  He's got to slow down sometime and he can't replicate what he did last year.  He should have a fine season, but 8th overall is kind of crazy to me.  I'll take the Jimmy Graham or Demaryius Thomas and then grab Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd round.

Detroit - Golden Tate.  I'm not buying it.  Late 6th round is too much for me when you could get a solid RB option like Bernard Pierce (a bit of a gamble, but at least he gets the full load for two games) or a different WR like Kendall Wright.  And, honestly this is the spot in the draft where I'm lookng for a QB like Cutler or Romo even though they are going 11 and 13 picks (respectively) later than Tate.

Green Bay - Everyone not named Aaron Rodgers.  I'd rather have Murray, Bell, Ball, or Gio than Lacy.  Antonio Brown over Nelson.  I'd take the RB over Cobb with Ellington going one pick later.  Boykin in the 10th seems too high.  Starks in the 13th isn't likely to pan out.  Richard Rodgers in the 14th?  Maybe you'll have something there but he'd be your TE2 that late and I'd much rather have Kelce one pick later.

Houston - Andre Brown.  Okay, that's cheating.  This is a tough one though, folks.  I suppose it's Foster here since he's going next to Gio and nine picks before Ellington.

Indianapolis - Hakeem Nicks.  Ninth round is pretty high for a third receiver.  Well, it's borderline for your fantasy squad's WR3, but it's kind of crazy when your WR3 is his own team's WR3 in real life.  Josh Gordon is going one pick later, but that will change when we hear about his possible suspension.  Boldin is there and predictable, Kenny Stills goes eight picks later and has more upside.

Jacksonville - Marqise Lee.  Another tough squad to find a bust is Jacksonville.  I'll go with Lee since Brian Hartline is drafted one spot later and is almost assuredly going to outproduce Lee this year.

Kansas City - Bowe, for reasons already stated.  And, I'll tell you who it isn't the bust - Travis Kelce.  I like him a lot this year and you can get him for nothin'.

Miami - Mike Wallace.  I sort of like Wallace to bounce back this year, but I probably won't see it happening if he goes in the 6th round of my drafts.  Cooks, T. Williams, Wayne, Wright, and even Decker feel like better options.

Minnesota - Cordarrelle Patterson.  Guys, can we just... Can't we kind of... I mean, we sort of need to... Cordarrelle Patterson in the 4th round?!?  I mean, I like his RAC ability too... and he does sort of remind you of Terrell Owens if you squint real hard, but the 4th round is crazy.  Me, I'll go with DeSean eight picks later, Floyd nine picks later, Hilton 13 picks later, or Torrey Smith 17 picks later.  And there are more.

New England - Tom Brady.  It seems like really good value at #61, but you can get Cutler at #97 or Cam Newton at #82.  Plus guys like Romo, Ryan, Rivers, Griffin, and Kaepernick are all going quite a bit after Brady.  #61 doesn't seem like good value anymore.

New Orleans - Khiry Robinson.  This another tough one since I find that Saints players are mostly underrated this year.  Robinson in the 8th round is a gamble.  If you are ready for a risky play at that point in the draft it could pay off, but I will generally prefer an Ahmad Bradshaw 16 picks later.

New York Giants - Rueben Randle.  At the end of the 7th round, Randle won't be on any of my teams.  Amendola is going 17 picks later.

New York Jets - Michael Vick.  Really tough one here, but I believe that Geno Smith will be the starter so Vick going in the 14th round won't work if he doesn't play.  Certainly it could be a steal if he does play, so if you get an every-week starter at QB and you want to burn a bench spot on a QB2 you might be able to generate a trade chip late with Vick. Nevertheless, if he doesn't play he'll be worth less than even EJ Manuel or Jake Locker.  Alright, moving along... this was a toughie.

Oakland - Maurice Jones-Drew.  I think Mojo could do some damage this year, but he is in a timeshare and he hasn't been himself in recent years... and he's being drafted ahead of Bernard Pierce, Steven Jackson, and Fred Jackson.  I think I'd rather take a chance on Pierce blowing up in weeks one and two than Mojo getting his, ahem, mojo back.

Philadelphia - Jordan Matthews.  I'm not buying it.  Not 14 draft positions ahead of Greg Jennings.  {EDIT: Okay, I am buying it.  He's a rookie, but Riley Cooper is more or less a journeyman who had some moments last year and Jeremy Maclin is already hurt again. There just might not be a lot of competition for targets in a high-powered offense.  Plus, Matthews is 6'3" and caught all nine of his targets in pre-season game #2... and that equals upside.  I'll switch my bust to Nick Foles.  He might not have the wideouts he needs to produce at the level where he's being drafted.}

Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger.  Taking Ben in the 10th round is too high.  Not because I particularly like Andy Dalton or Johnny Manziel, but because you should be using your 10th rounder to fortify your flex position with some depth like Ahmad Bradshaw or Steve Smith.

San Diego - Malcom Floyd.  He's just never healthy.  I'd rather have Cotchery 16 picks later.

San Francisco - 49ers DST.  If you take a DST in the 8th round you better not miss.  There is just too much variability here, plus they've dealt with some injuries.  The Broncos come off the board 12 picks later and the Browns (who I love this year) are available 60 picks later.

Seattle - Percy Harvin.  Hey, maybe he steps right up and delivers on his big, big potential.  I'm not going to find out with a 5th round pick.  Harvin has never had 1,000 yards in a season and never had seven touchdowns, plus he was out almost the entire year in 2013.  He proved what he is when in Minnesota - around 850 yards and six TD's.  I need more in the 5th, and I think I'll get it with Michael Floyd.  I also prefer T. Smith, Hilton, Maclin, Sanders and more.

St. Louis - Zac Stacy.  28th seems about right, but I'd much rather have Ellington at #30.  I also prefer Gerhart, Jennings, and Mathews.

Tampa Bay - Austin Sefarian-Jenkins.  Okay, he's fine as a late round gamble, but if that's what we're doing let's take Travis Kelce eight picks later.

Tennessee - Justin Hunter.  This Just-in... Hunter's not as good as Greg Jennings, who is being drafted 13 picks later.

Washington - Roy Helu.  Not buying it.  Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.  Give me C.J. Anderson with the next pick or Donald Brown ten picks later.