Sign-up Bonus: Free Version of My Book

Time to get serious. Let me send the bonus version of my book to you.
I've spent 20 years on this stuff and the book doesn't hold back... It's got the secrets of the pros of fantasy football, but much of the strategy translates to baseball: "Managing My Team" + "Common Mistakes to Avoid."


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Monday, April 6, 2015

DFS Strategy: The Daily Fantasy Sports Brain

Daily Fantasy Sports, or "DFS" have exploded in popularity in recent years.  It was absolutely huge in football last season and I anticipate even more growth in 2015.  For football but also for baseball.  In fact, since there are about ten times as many baseball games as football games the aggregate revenue for the companies in this space should be much higher for our national pastime.

So, I'm intrigued by how strategy changes for these games as well as trends in the market and the legality of it all.  I'll dive into strategy here in a moment, but I want all of you Brainiacs to be aware of what is out there and what you can participate in.

If you look up DFS at Wikipedia the first sub-section is about legality.  The US government passed the Unlawful Internet Gambling Act in 2006 but DFS is exempted from the law.  In fact, all fantasy sports have been determined to be games of skill and not games of chance.

I cannot speak for other nations or other parts of the world, so please understand your local laws and how they are enforced. (What you do is up to you alone.)  In fact, even though the US government has said that fantasy sports are legal there are several states that have greater levels of restriction like Arizona, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, and Vermont.  It's a crazy world out there, so be careful.  If you happen to be in a part of the world that has laws allowing for sites like the sports betting page at William hill more power to ya.  But please make sure you manage your bankroll responsibly and stay on top of your finances... This is just for fun, folks.  I've heard some terrible stories of people playing DFS games way too much and losing way too much money.  And, with baseball season upon us and 15 games being played almost every day for six months... Well, it can get out of control.  If you suspect you might need help, I found an official-looking website with a number you can call: 1-800-522-4700.  (It looks official but I don't have any special knowledge about it... Bottom line: Keep it under control and get help if you need it.)

I got love for you Brainiacs... Fools be crazy.  

On to the strategy!

1. Bankroll Management - Your 'bankroll' is the amount of money you've decided to spend on this hobby.  Yes, I said 'decided.'  That's the first thing: identify ahead of time an amount of money that you can afford to lose if you lose it all, and don't go over it.  Deposits on the site of your choice make this easy.  When it's gone, it's gone.  You can play daily games for 25 cents, so your bankroll could be a very small amount like $5 and away you go.  The websites will tempt you with deposit bonuses, but it their minimum is above what you decided don't go for it.  Control thyself.
One basic thought on bankroll, and gambling in general:  It feels great to win $10, but if you spend $15 in order to 'win' $10 all you really did is lose $5.  It can be like playing slot machines in that way...  Your brain gets those happy chemicals associated with winning while you are really losing on the aggregate.  (By the way, people, seriously... those slot machines are programmed to pay out something like 97% of what's put in...  They always make money off of you over time.  Always!  Always, always, always.  Always.)

2. Don't Play it Safe - By all means be safe with your bankroll, but not with your roster.  I like to anchor my team with a stud or two which spends me up to the limit but I like to take chances when filling out the roster.  The rationale is simple: If you field a reasonable roster you will finish in the 'mushy middle' and you won't win much (or anything).  Now, taking chances is highly risky so you are likely to lose... but if you hit, you win.  No one else will have your risky lineup, so if you pick some great matchups you'll rocket to the top.

3. Study the Matchups - Which leads me to the next bit... Study the matchups.  This is important in football but critical in baseball.  And not just hitter vs. starter but look at the texture of the bullpen and which arms have been used recently.  For example, I may not mind starting a good lefty hitter against a decent lefty starter if their best in the league LOOGY has pitched on back-to-back nights coming in.  They can't bring in the assassin to get my guy in the 8th inning which means he might be able to get an AB against a mediocre righty late in the game.  That AB has value but it is hidden since it is unknown.  The hitter's value is largely based on the matchup with the starter and if it is a lefty-lefty matchup the hitter's value will be depressed.

4. Park Factor - Okay, I think about park factor entirely too much.  Guilty.  But the real value here is understanding the parks that seem to favor pitchers or hitters overall but have one factor that goes against the grain.  Fenway is known as a hitter's park allowing 7.2% more runs than the average, but that is not due to more home runs.  There are actually 28% fewer home runs there.  Meanwhile there are 52.3% more doubles due to the Green Monster, and those doubles tend to clear the bases which increases the number of runs.  So, when picking a matchup in Boston don't go for a big right handed masher hoping for a homer.  Just one example.

5. Stacking - The concept of stacking is big in football since you want to have a shot at big points.  If you pick the right matchup and Cecil Shorts catches three TD's from Blake Bortles, you'll win the week if you stacked both of those guys on your roster.  It's high risk, high reward... which is what you are looking for.  You'll lose a lot, but when you hit you win.  There's not very much "mushy middle" here.  In baseball it's harder to do, but if you like Gregory Polanco against a mediocre righty maybe you stack in Pedro Alvarez and hope for the left-handed rout of the right-handed pitcher.  You may also stack a starter in a good matchup with his team's closer.

Alright, that's all I've got for now folks.  I'd love to hear from you about your successes in DFS... Keep an eye on the big picture over the long haul and be careful out there, Brainiacs.

Monday, March 16, 2015

Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge: AL-Only Strategy

There was once this guy who asked a girl to the prom and she said yes. He was excited but knew he needed to go and get a tux, reserve a limo, and get a corsage.  So, he went to the tux place and the line was out the door!  He waited and waited, but finally got the tuxedo.  At the limo place, same thing!  Line out the door and down the street, but he reserved a limo for the big dance.  When he got to the flower shop, wouldn't you know it... super long line.  But the girl was worth it, so he stayed in the line and got the corsage.

The night of the prom he rolled up in the limo and they went to the dance.  His date said she was thirsty and he said he would get her something to drink...

he walked to the table...

and...

...there was no punch line.

But seriously folks, yesterday was the annual FSIC expert league.  It is one of the oldest and most respected expert leagues around, even though the famous ones like Tout Wars and LABR have surpassed it in notoriety by quite a margin.  The one I am in is the AL-Only league and like any "only" league it requires a lot of strategy and careful consideration, especially in the latter rounds.

Think about it, 10 teams and 28 rounds is 280 players.  There are 15 American League teams so we're drafting about 19 players per team on average...  Most teams have a 7-man pen and a 4-man bench, so if you remove the closer that leaves you with around 10 guys per team without regular playing time.  Since teams have a 25-man roster, that leaves you with about 15 guys per team with any kind or regular playing time, and that includes #5 starters, platoon situations, part-time DH's, and shaky closer candidates.  It's a minefield out there, and every team is going to have some seriously sketchy draft picks.

This league only has one catcher, but it does have middle infielders and corners ("MI" and "CI") plus five outfielders.  So, any given week this league will start 10 catchers out of the 15 available which is not too bad..  Plus approximately 15 each at 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B of the 15 available.  Pretty much all of them.  And in the outfield you'll need 50 each week when there are only 45 positions in the league before you even consider platoon situations.  The one thing that eases this a bit are the DH's which will often play a position as well like OF or 1B, but still there is a Utility position in this league so even those 15 AL DH's will dry up fast.

Another strategic consideration is at closer where there are less than 15 good ones out there and in this league you're going to want to have two to get an edge if possible.  My prediction was that the few elite options like Greg Holland would fly off of the board.  And, if every team in this league takes six starters, well that's four out of every five available and full rotations aren't even set yet.  Guys like Kendall Graveman are still battling for a spot.

So, my strategy involved a few things:

1. Prioritize OF.  Get three or four relatively quickly.
2. Don't worry so much about catcher unless you can get a great value.
3. Pick up value throughout. See who is slipping and scoop them up because in these expert leagues (all leagues, really) people have guys they like and will tend to reach a bit in the middle rounds to get their guys.
4. Get solid starters in their prime, in good ballparks, at good value.
5. Try to get good value on two of the lower-rated closers, plus a setup guy or two.
6. Prioritize MI over CI.
7. Always try to get the guy with playing time since they are at a premium.

So, how'd it go?  (Update Note from Dave I just calculated the total value amassed on these picks according to auction value on FantasyPros.com and the top 22 players equal $315 in projected value.  That's pretty awesome, iidssm.  I guess my next comment was accurate:)  I did pretty well on the value piece, with players slipping to me all over.  However, I did get sniped quite a bit as per usual in these snake drafts.  I felt like the guy waiting in all of the lines.

I had the #8 pick, so I also had #13.  Of course I'd rather get Trout at #1, but by my estimation there are only about 15 elite studs in the AL so I would get two while the top five teams would only get one uber-stud.

At #8 I was choosing between Adam Jones, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson.  I figured the two I didn't take would go before #13 and I might end up with David Price there.  I was prioritizing OF, so I went with Jones.  Crazy thing, at #13 Donaldson and E5 were both still there.  No punch line.

I took Donaldson thinking that 1B would be slightly easier to fill, but I honestly started to look at Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez there, knowing they wouldn't come back to me at #28.  I hoped that Chris Davis would make it.  Nope.  Long lines for all three, with Davis going #26. (Curses!)

Actually, at this point in the draft you could already feel the thinness of the AL-Only format... Since my last pick Prince Fielder, Brian Dozier, David Ortiz, Evan Longoria, J.D. Martinez, and Yoenis Cespedes were all taken.  As late 2nd's and early 3rd's those picks seem awfully rich, but ya gotta do what ya gotta do.  I was pleasantly surprised to still see Carlos Santana for me at #28.  In CBS leagues he qualifies all over the place: C, 1B, 3B, and CI.  He had a slow start last year bouncing around, but as soon as he settled into the 1B gig his production was strong the rest of the way.

Another value at pick #33 was Albert Pujols.  It's more than reminiscing about all of the good times we used to have.  Phat Albert was quietly really quite good last year.  Even though he is 35 now and gets more than his share of nagging injuries, his pure skill level is as high as anyone in baseball.  I believe that in the 4th round I'm paying at or near his floor.

The funny thing at this point was that I was adhering to some of my strategy at the expense of other parts.  I took an OF in the 1st round but no more in the next three picks and I'm clearly loaded at CI with zero MI's.  Plus no pitching yet.  I am accumulating value, though... and Santana can be my catcher with Donaldson at 3B and Pujols at 1B.

There were 14 picks before I would select again, with some interesting names. Four closers, four starters, Danny Santana, Kole Calhoun,  Brandon Moss... plus a couple I like there in Kyle Seager and Pablo Sandoval.  At #48 I was in the market for my second OF and took Alex Gordon, which I feel like was good value again.  At this pick I was considering Carlos Carrasco and hoped he would slip to #53.

No such luck.  I took Sonny Gray.  Holding my breath there, but the pitching was starting to go.

It was thinning out fast...  I took Mookie Betts as a 2B, hoping he has a regular job and knowing I can use him in the OF if I get another 2B later.  Then Anibal Sanchez, who was good value at #73.  The next two picks would be similar with Shin-Soo Choo (more value, I hope) and Chris Archer.

So, ten rounds in now and I'm not really feeling all that great even though I do have three or four of my outfielders, three starters (even though they aren't my favorites), and I'm all stocked up at corner infield, plus a top catching option if needed as such.

At this point I'm still looking for value but I need middle infielders desperately as well as saves.  Otherwise, not too bad.

In round 11 I was hoping for Xander Bogaerts, but he went one pick before me.  I looked at my sheet and the best value was Brian McCann.  I was surprised he lasted that long and figured everyone was de-valuing catchers in this league.  Well, I can play Santana in five different slots and it is a luxury to carry two good catchers so I took McCann.

Round 12 brought Neftali Feliz.  I don't love him, but he seems to be healthy now and he also seems to have the job.  With all of the closers that went off in the 4th and 5th rounds this seemed like good value.

I followed up this one with Joakim Soria in the 13th, who I expect to get the job any day now.

The 14th round brought a pretty steady contributor in steals with a solid BA in Rajai Davis.  OF #4 (or #5), check!  I felt good about that pick at this point.

Looking at the board there had been eight shortstops taken so far, so I felt like it was between me and one other player for J.J. Hardy and even if he was gone I could deal with Brad Miller.  Well, in the next 14 picks they both went.  Ugh.  Worst pick of the draft for me was Josh Rutledge as my SS.  In round 15.  It was a desperation pick even though he does have upside.  These lines are long for middle infielders.

It was really getting thin at this point, and my next three were Jesse Hahn (upside, good park factor), C.J. Cron (crushing it, good AB's with Hamilton out), and Omar Infante (if he hits I can bump Betts to the OF).

Wade Davis in the 19th and Danny Farquhar in the 20th will be solid contributors for me and might vulture some wins and saves while striking out more than their share per IP.

In the 21st round I felt like I still needed another SP but I was eyeing another MI.  Jonathan Schoop was taken so I queued up Didi Gregorius.  He went the pick before me.  Okay, outfielder?  No, Seth Smith and Matt Joyce just went... Starter?  Miguel Gonzalez is gone, too.  Ugly situation.  I like upside and park factor, so I went with the aforementioned Graveman.  I think he's got the job and I think he'll be solid, especially at home.

Long lines for guys with playing time.  Long lines.  James Jones and his 27 steals (with only 1 CS) in just 312 AB's last year, went to me next.  David Murphy was my next pick, and he is likely a starter in Cleveland and surprisingly not too terrible...  Playing Time + Average Stats = Value.

I then took Eric Sogard, who is terrible, but he plays and qualifies at both MI positions.  Don't judge me.  Long lines!

Rickie Weeks is an upside lottery ticket play in the 25th round.  He was pretty good last year and if he finds a way to get AB's he'll have sensational value at this pick.  There are plenty of trade rumors since the M's don't really need him.

My penultimate pick was Craig Gentry, who is platooning with Sam Fuld and I don't believe in Sam Fuld.  Okay I don't believe in Gentry either, but I like him a whole lot more than Fuld.

Last pick was another setup guy - Edward Mujica.  He had a neck issue last year plus issues dealing with the transition to the AL.  Nevertheless, he still got 8 saves.  And do you remember how great he was before last year?  Pretty great.  If he's healthy he is the next closer in Boston should Koji bow to Father Time.... That, or he could be traded.  There have been rumors... So he could be closing somewhere else.  Not a bad gamble in the last round.

So, there it is.  My OF is pretty strong, my corners and catchers are stupendous, and my RP situation is pretty good for my low investment.

I feel like the rotation is a patchwork of guys I don't normally take, but there is a lot of upside there:  Sonny Gray, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Archer, Jesse Hahn, and even Kendall Graveman.  I must love park factor because I took almost all of the Oakland staff.  Wins might be an issue.

However, backing up those guys in the ratios and K's are Davis, Farquhar, Feliz, Soria, and Mujica.  I think that is a strong supplementary crew.

The middle infield is a train wreck on this team.  Mookie Betts might be without a position, and if that is the case it's even worse.  Josh Rutledge is my SS and Omar Infante is the MI.  Ew.  At least I've got Eric Sogard and Rickie Weeks on my bench, so you know, there's that.  Horrendous.  My only hope here is that the composite BA can stay above .270 and playing time is high enough that the counting stats remain at an average level... and those things can happen.  It is important to understand the downside risk in the areas that you de-prioritize so even if there isn't much ceiling the floor isn't too low either.  Then, your areas of strength can be free to carry you to victory.

Knock Knock.
...who's there?

Sogard.
...Sogard who?

There is no punch line.

Thank you, folks... I'll be here all week.

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

The All-Balance Team, 2015

The prevailing wisdom in auction leagues is something called 'Stars and Scrubs.'  The idea here is that you invest heavily in a few guys to anchor your team since top-end talent is rare and is usually the difference maker in a long season.  Plus, your bench guys and waiver wire guys are more or less interchangeable since you just need a guy to plug in once in a blue moon.

That's all well and good, but I've got a few issues with that:

  1. Too many eggs in too few baskets.  If Trout or Kershaw go down with an injury, there goes 20% of your auction money.
  2. Bench guys do not have to be cheapies.  They can have real value if you plan well, and let me tell you, there is a world of difference between an $8 guy and a $1 replacement player.
  3. In leagues with daily lineup changes flexibility is king.  Imagine a world where all of your guys are roughly equivalent and many of them play multiple positions?  You can play the matchups every blasted day... No more pitching in Coors or batting in Petco.  No more batting versus Kershaw and King Felix.  Nagging injury?  No problem!
Okay, so many leagues are 12 teams with a $260 budget.  In most of those leagues you're going to draft anywhere from 22-29 players, something like that.  To make the math easy, let's just say you are looking to grab 26 players with your $260:  $10 each on average.

I used the auction rankings at FantasyPros.com for values, with 65% reserved for batters.  From there I just blocked out all players valued between $8 and $12.

But, Dave, you say.... Dave, how can I compete with an entire roster of $10 players?  Behold...

Catcher ($20):
Salvador Perez - $8
Evan Gattis - $12

1B ($24):
Joey Votto - $12
Prince Fielder - $12
(also qualify here: Gattis)

2B ($18):
Howie Kendrick - $10
Martin Prado - $8
(also qualify here: Zobrist)

SS ($16):
Starlin Castro - $8
Jimmy Rollins - $8
(also qualify here: Zobrist)

3B ($20):
Ryan Zimmerman - $11
Manny Machado - $9
(hard to pass up David Wright at $12, too)
(also qualify here: Prado and Harrison)

OF ($63):
Ben Zobrist - $12
Josh Harrison - $8
Billy Hamilton - $12
J.D. Martinez - $11
Marcell Ozuna - $10
Shin-Soo Choo - $10
(also qualify here: Zimmerman, Prado, and Gattis)

SP ($60):
Gio Gonzalez - $10
Carlos Carrasco - $8
Tyson Ross - $9
Julio Teheran - $12
Homer Bailey - $9
Jose Fernandez - $12

RP ($43):
Dellin Betances - $10
David Robertson - $11
Steve Cishek - $9
Mark Melancon - $13

All told it's $264, so feel free to drop an outfielder and add a cheaper pitcher like Jose Quintana or Zach Britton, both $6.

I think the beauty of this approach is the fact that you never really know who is going to break out or have the big comeback season.  It also insulates you from slumps and injuries and also the curse of the big first half.

This team wins steals, wins saves, has a staff full of potential aces, and has insane roster flexibility on the hitting side.  Plus, did you think there would be all of those erstwhile superstars like Fielder, Votto, Choo, and Zimmerman on there?  Any one could bust out, plus there is greaet upside with younger guys that we saw have big years in 2014 - Harrison, Martinez, and even Hamilton.

Think you could win with a squad like this?

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Fantasy Baseball Insiders League: Strategy

Have you ever been in a situation like a business conference or a big school function, or even something like what you thought was a costume party, where you thought you had to get all dressed up... but when you get to the event everyone is wearing jeans and t-shirts?  You get dressed to the nines in your Italian suit and perfect tie, or if it's October, maybe you absolutely crush it on your zombie Homer Simpson costume.  Either way, you're feeling pretty good.

All decked out, walking into the event... Then you see the sea of denim.  Your over-inflated opinion of yourself springs a leak and withers to the ground.

It's kind of like after one of those 'experts' drafts that take place five weeks before the season.  You (and by that I mean "me") add up the projected stats from all of your picks and it turns out that if you had this team last year, you would have finished in first place in nine categories!  Amazing!  Yeah, over-inflated.

Nevertheless, let's take a look and I'll explain my rationale and how I got all Larry Schechter on these fools.

I had the 3rd pick and hoped for McCutchen since Scott White (@CBSScottWhite) ranked Miggy #2.  Unfortunately

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Week 17 Preview: Bengals at Steelers

Most of you have completed your fantasy season and are looking forward to what's next.  Some of you will scratch the fantasy jones with some fantasy basketball, some with hockey, or maybe even an NFL playoff challenge for some of you.  Maybe you'll dive into preparation for baseball season.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Fine or Pine: Week 16

By Adam Filadelfo (@FNTSYArchitect)

If you're still playing fantasy football in week 16, congratulations. That means you are more than likely playing for a championship. If you are playing for a championship, that means you still need to set your lineups and obviously this week is the most important week of the 2014 fantasy football season. This week is do or die. There is no next week (unless your championship week is week 17). This is the week you just have to get it right. No margin for error. Every roster decision counts. Best of luck to every owner vying for the championship in their leagues. Here's a little something to help you out should you have roster questions. Consider it an early Christmas present from The Fantasy Sports Brain.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Keepers, Sleepers, and Jeepers: Week 16

By Adam Filadelfo (@FNTSYArchitect)

For most owners, this week marks the culmination of the fantasy football season. The fantasy football championship. By now, every owner's roster should be set. Of course there's always an injury that pops up along the way and the waiver wire may just produce one more gem that can help needy fantasy owners take home the gold. For owners heading over to their waiver wire, there may just be a player or two waiting to help you win a championship.