FanDuel with the Brain

Here we go...  It's Duel time, Brainiacs!!

That's right, folks... It's another duel with the Brain.  Click the logo, or click here to join.  It's ten bucks.  If you beat me, I'll post your comments here and re-tweet your trash talk on Twitter.

And listen, I don't mind promising that since I'm feeling pretty confident today.  I've got a good grasp on today's action over at FanDuel, and I'll give you some of my thoughts right here in a few seconds.

If you aren't familiar with daily fantasy games, just think of it as a one-day fantasy season with huge prizes.  Lots of fun, no commitment.'

Tonight's prizes:

1. First Prize:  A seat in the prestigious DFBC Finals, plus a trip to Las Vegas!!
2. Second Prize:  A cool $1,000.
3. Third Prize: $700
4. Top 249 get paid... $20 on the low end, which is double the entry fee.

Here are a few thoughts and tips to get you started in our matchup and the other games you might play at FanDuel:

• First, about the interface itself.  I really like the way you can click a button for each game.  When you do the players for those two teams will appear in the box below, and only the position you have selected if you have narrowed it down in that way.  So in other words, you can click on the Pitchers button and then click on "WAS @ SDP" to see who's going in that matchup.  And, you can do the same for favorable hitting matchups, like "SFG @ COL" for example.
• Gio Gonzalez is pitching in San Diego tonight which is great, but he costs $8,400.  I think that is a bit too expensive to keep you competitive elsewhere.  I'm leaning toward Jaime Garcia at home for only $6,900 or Jarrod Parker in Oakland for only $5,200.
• Pablo Sandoval has been on fire and he's in Colorado tonight.  That's $3,600 well spent.
• It's an interesting night tonight where the worst starting pitchers seem to be pitching in favorable ballparks - Burch Smith for the Padres and Vance Worley in Minnesota.  We've got some of the reverse, too:  Madison Bumgarner in Colorado and Cliff Lee in Philly.
• Bumgarner might be the worst value of the night at a lofty $8,800.  Too rich for me.
• Looking at the cheapest players, I was thinking of Ben Revere... but he's not playing again tonight.  Look elsewhere, Brainiacs.

Just a few thoughts my friends...  Weigh in with your comments.  What do you think some good values are tonight?

It should be lots of fun.... I hope to see you over at FanDuel.  And, did I mention you can win a trip to Vegas?  $1,000?  That the top 249 people get paid?

C'mon, give it a click and see if you can beat me:  http://goo.gl/QkDRu

FanDuel: Beat the Brain

Are you good enough to beat the Brain?!?  Well, let's find out!  The good people at FanDuel have set up a contest today so we can see who the real brain is around here.

Head on over to this link to sign up...  It's ten bucks to play, and the top three players win $600, $450, and $350 respectively.  (With lots more getting a payout, too!)

Let's see who the real brain is: CLICK HERE

And, if you are new to daily fantasy leagues, don't worry... They are lots of fun and easy to jump into.  You don't have the long-term commitment of a regular league.  Give it a try.

And, to get you started, here are a few thoughts for you on the game and today's matchups:

• Pitching matchups and park factors are critical.  You are only dealing with one specific game, so today's matchup and the effect of the ballpark are two of the most critical elements in picking your roster.  One obvious example is Clayton Kershaw at San Francisco.  Great park factor with a great pitcher.  Pitchers are expensive, though... so finding a cheaper alternative that still has a great situation today may be the way to go.  Some examples there are Wade Miley (in San Diego for $1,800 less) and Doug Fister (at Houston for $2,500 less than Kershaw).
• Also, keep an eye on recent performance.  Some hitters are streaky and are starting to get into a groove.  Nate McLouth is a great example of this, though his price today at FanDuel reflects his hot streak ($4,300).  Nate's got a pretty good matchup with Jason Vargas but a lower quality park factor in Anaheim.  My belief is that he will earn his money on your team.
• Be careful with hot streaks though.  The trick can be trying to estimate when they will end.  Evan Gattis has been crushing the ball this year and he's got a great matchup against Shawn Marcum, who just doesn't seem to be all the way back from his injury.  My problem there is that the hot streak has been going on for a few weeks now and it's got to stop sometime.  Plus, no one had heard of Evan Gattis three weeks ago and it's not the best park factor.  Plus, he'll cost you $3,500 for your FanDuel roster.  Salvador Perez can be had for only $2,400.  One thought on Perez: You should check the weather report... Looks like rain again tonight in KC.
• Which leads me to another thought...  Pay attention to the weather report and spread out your risk.  Looking at the weather is mostly about rain, but you could also take a look at temperature.  For example, it's supposed to be 37 degrees in Denver tonight.  Nevertheless, I don't think that trumps the matchup and park factor so start your Tampa Rays in the thin air against Jeff Francis.
• Also, look for superstars at low costs.  Chase Headley (mashing the ball) is only $3,600 and Adam Jones (good matchup) is just $3,900.

Okay, folks... That's all for now.  I may post more later but I can't give away my secrets all at once.  Head over to FanDuel (click here) and show me who's boss!

Another Fantasy Pros Feature

I am grateful to have been able to contribute to another feature over at Fantasy Pros.  Check it out here:  http://www.fantasypros.com/2013/04/fantasy-baseball-waiver-wire-rankings/

Thanks, guys!  Good luck in your games this weekend!

NFL Draft: DeAndre Hopkins

They played Sweet Caroline at the draft to honor the strength of the people of Boston last night.  The good people of New York gave it all they had in singing the traditional 7th inning stretch song of the Red Sox.  Stand up guys, those New Yorkers.  But, they totally messed up the cadence on "So good, so good, so good"... but I can't hold it against them.  Besides, I'd like to see the people of Boston try to do the YMCA.  They'd probably have the "C" going the wrong way.

Anyway, back to the draft.  My example yesterday with Cordarrelle Patterson didn't exactly come to pass, but exactly the concept I was illustrating did.  When the Texans selected DeAndre Hopkins at #27 they seem to have finally populated the other side of the field to give their quality quarterback another top-flight option and a buddy to take the pressure off of their super-stud #1 WR.

I don't feel quite as good about Hopkins in Houston as I would have with Patterson in Cincinnati, but it'll do.  Hopkins is the instant starter, he won't see any doubles, and he's got a great QB.  Add to that a really stellar running game and we should see Hopkins breaking open all year.  I really like his sleeper potential in 2013.

There were a few more skill position players taken in the first round last night, but not too many more.  Tavon Austin went early and Tyler Eifert was the only tight end taken, as we predicted.  And, also as predicted there weren't any running backs drafted.  We had Hopkins added to the mix as well as Patterson, so three wide receivers.  And, only one quarterback selected with EJ Manuel going to Buffalo.

Truly, that's not too much to digest as far as draftable players taken in the first round of the draft.  We saw some conspicuous offensive lineman picks and some potential difference makers on defense, though.  There are some puzzle pieces to sort through there for sure.

But, regarding the draftable guys, I'm of the unsurprising belief that Manuel is not a legit fantasy QB for 2013.  I would also stay away from Patterson.  Eifert and Hopkins are purely late round guys, but they both have solid sleeper upside.

Austin is a great case study, though.  We could literally see anything from him this year... there are tons of pros and also lots of cons with him.  A lot of what we can project with Austin rests on the shoulders of Sam Bradford, so my opinion is that the value you place on Austin should be directly proportional to the trust you have in Bradford.  Do you think that Bradford is a legit QB1 who deserved to be taken #1 overall but just has lacked the health and weapons and coaching to shine?  Or, do you believe that Bradford has shown his true colors and is just too inconsistent and injury prone to really perform at a high level?  In my opinion, your projection for Austin should follow your level of belief in Bradford.

Have fun with day two of the NFL selection meeting, Brainiacs.  I can't wait!

NFL Draft: Looking for Fantasy Impact

Tonight is the first day of the NFL Draft, which means two things:

1. I will be reduced to a giggling child for the next three days.
2. We have a big opportunity for fantasy football analysis.

The mind explodes with possibilities and in just a few short days they will begin to solidify.  If you are observant and astute you can begin to make connections and determinations about what these roster changes will do to the fantasy landscape this Fall.

The draft is the third piece to the off-season trifecta:  Free Agency, Coaching Changes, and the Draft.  If you pay close attention to these three elements and

Full Circle on Relief Pitchers

When I first started playing fantasy baseball I drafted pitchers like just about everyone else - a starter every so often and a couple of relievers later on in the draft.  As I started to play more often I realized that you could basically take your pick of the top setup men in all of baseball for pretty much nothing.  I theorized that you'd be able to get great ERA and WHIP numbers out of these guys for close to zero investment.

And, as I continued to develop the strategy I went from two or three relievers to four closers... then to five total relievers, then six.  I realized that your could dominate the saves category if you locked up four middle-of-the-road closers and if you added one or even two elite setup guys to the mix your other stats would benefit as well.  Plus, one of those setup guys could possibly get promoted to the closer gig which would provide even more value and a good trade chip later on.

I started to think about it even further and what I was seeing was that if you have an imbalanced number of closers on your squad you can start to run away with the saves category.  That cushion gives you breathing room in the category but also increases the value of the closers you own since you are making them more scarce.  All great things.

But, then I started to dig deeper into the numbers...

Fantasy Pros: Bold Predictions

One more time, Brainiacs...  The good people at Fantasy Pros asked me to contribute to another article for their site.  This one was about bold predictions.

You can check it out if you click here.

The predictions in the feature have very different levels of boldness from the obvious to the insane, so check it out. 

I wanted to go with something that is unlikely to happen but defensible.  I chose to plant a flag on Cameron Maybin getting 15 home runs to go with 35 steals and a .270 batting average.  The 35 steals isn't all that bold but it's a lot more than he did last year.  The 15 homers would be a career high and .270 would be his highest average in the big leagues.  He only hit .243 in 2012.

Maybin is 26 years old this year which is a great time to break out for someone with his level of experience.  In his last two significant stops at AAA he hit .338 and .319, respectively.  And, while the predicted numbers are unlikely, it's possible that he starts to put it all together this year and breaks out.  Hence the bold prediction.