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Saturday, November 8, 2014

Fine or Pine, Week Ten

By Adam Filadelfo (@FNTSYArchitect)

Week ten is officially here and that means it's time once again for fantasy owners to set their lineups. It isn't always easy to know which players to start and which players to sit. Especially this week with another six teams on their bye. Fantasy owners may be faced with the decision to start a player that they would never think of starting due to so many of the top fantasy players having the week off. The key is knowing which players will give you the best chance of coming out of this week with a victory. Without further ado, I present the week ten edition of Fine or Pine.

Quarterback

Fine- Matt Ryan- Atlanta Falcons- While it's true that Matty Ice has not lived up to the lofty expectations of fantasy owners this season, it cannot be denied that he has one of the better matchups in week ten. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are allowing the sixth most fantasy points to the opposing quarterback and Matt Ryan is due for a big game. After four straight sub 20 fantasy point games, Matt Ryan finally broke 20 fantasy points in week eight. Fantasy owners can start the Falcons signal caller with confidence this week versus a team that can't seem to stop a nose bleed.

Pine- Cam Newton- Carolina Panthers- My how the mighty have fallen. The last two seasons, Cam Newton has been a quarterback fantasy owners would feel confident trotting out there each week. This season is a completely different story. Newton is averaging under 20 fantasy points per game and has not scored 20 fantasy points since week six. What's even more alarming is the fact that Cam only has two rushing touchdowns on the season and has not thrown a touchdown pass since week seven versus the Packers. While he does have a good matchup this week versus the Eagles who happen to allow the third most fantasy points to the quarterback, it's too difficult to rely on Cam until he shows he is back to his old self.

Running Back

Fine- LeSean McCoy- Philadelphia Eagles- While it seemed like Shady was done the first few weeks of the season, he's turned it on over the last few weeks. McCoy may still be only averaging under ten fantasy points per game but he has posted double digit fantasy points in two of the last three games and faces a Carolina defense that is giving up the second most fantasy points to the running back this week. Fantasy owners will be very happy they own Shady McCoy in the second half of the season.

Pine- Chris Johnson- New York Jets- I will start off by saying Johnson has the matchup in his favor this week versus the Steelers who allow 23.3 fantasy points per game to the running back. Next I will say I don't trust Chris Johnson whatsoever. Week nine was Johnson's first double digit fantasy point game since week four. In the weeks between week four and week nine, Johnson has posted 2.2 fantasy points, 1.1 fantasy points, eight fantasy points and two fantasy points. There is no indication that Chris Johnson is turning the corner and should be trusted to be in a fantasy lineup.

Wide Receiver

Fine- Brandon Marshall- Chicago Bears- Brandon Marshall falls into the same category as LeSean McCoy for me. A slow first half and is ready to reward fantasy owners in the second half that stuck with them. With no double digit fantasy point games since week six, a lot of fantasy owners have become discouraged with a receiver who they could plug in for 100 receptions, 1,000 yards and double digit touchdowns every year. I think week ten is where Marshall starts to turn his misfortunes around and give his fantasy owners what they've been waiting for. The matchup versus Green Bay is a favorable one for Marshall as the Packers defense is allowing 34 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver.

Pine- Mike Wallace- Miami Dolphins- The last two games for Wallace have been nothing short of a letdown for his owners seeing how he scored  under six fantasy points the last two weeks in favorable matchups versus Jacksonville and San Diego. This week Wallace gets the Detroit Lions defense who happens to be the best when it comes to defending against the wide receiver as they are allowing a league best 27.7 fantasy points per game.

Tight End

Fine- Heath Miller- Pittsburgh Steelers- Big Ben has thrown an NFL record 12 touchdowns in the last two games and owning any part of the Steelers offense right now is exciting. Fantasy owners should expect that trend to continue this week versus the Jets. While it may be difficult for Big Ben to continue this torrid pace, it isn't far fetched to think Heath Miller can have a good game versus a Jets defense that bleeds fantasy points to the tight end as they are allowing the fourth most to the position at over 17 per game. The lack of targets to Miller could end up hurting him but against a defense that all but forgets about the tight end, Heath Miller should be a top tight end in week ten.

Pine- Vernon Davis- San Francisco 49ers- Take into account the fact the 49ers offense looks completely lost right now and Vernon Davis is averaging under five fantasy points per game and you have the recipe for a disaster if you have to start him this week. The matchup versus the Saints doesn't play into the favor of Vernon Davis as the Saints are allowing the second least amount of fantasy points to the position. What makes matters worse for Davis owners is the fact that the San Francisco tight end has only one double digit fantasy points game this season and that came all he way back in week one. He has failed to score four fantasy points in any game since week one.

Defense

Fine- Arizona Cardinals- The Cardinals are the best team in the NFL and are playing like it on both sides of the ball. While the schedule gets tougher in the coming weeks, they do have the Rams in week ten and fantasy owners can expect the Cardinals defense to come through at least one more week. In eight games played this season, the Arizona defense has 13 sacks and 12 interceptions. Lucky for them Austin Davis is the opposing signal caller this week and he's thrown three interceptions in his last two games and four picks in his last four games. Even though the Cardinals defense ranks middle of the pack for fantasy owners, there's no denying the matchup is definitely in the favor of the Cardinals this week.

Pine- Carolina Panthers- While the matchup may be a little tempting with Mark Sanchez under center for the Eagles for the foreseeable future, it will be difficult for fantasy owners to trust the Panthers defense at this point. They are allowing almost 20 fantasy points to the quarterback, almost 30 fantasy points to the running backs and almost 40 fantasy points to the wide receivers. The Eagles should have no issues at all moving the ball and scoring points in week ten versus the Panthers defense.