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Saturday, November 22, 2014

Fine or Pine, Week Twelve

By Adam Filadelfo (@FNTSYArchitect)

With only a few short weeks left in the 2014 fantasy football regular season, it's time for fantasy owners to really buckle down and make some popular or unpopular decisions in route to making the playoffs. Each roster decision made is magnified and scrutinized over and over. No fantasy owner can afford to make the wrong decision when it comes to which players to start and which players to sit. Welcome to the week 12 edition of "Fine or Pine".

Quarterback

Fine- Colin Kapernick- San Francisco 49ers- Let's face the facts if you're a Colin Kapernick owner. If you can't trust him this week versus the Redskins, you can't trust him at all. While fantasy owners haven't had much cause for starting  Kapernick this season, the week 12 matchup is as enticing as it will get for Kaepernick. The Washington defense is allowing over 20 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers while Kapernick is averaging over 20 fantasy points per week. If the 49ers signal caller can't get the job done for fantasy owners this week, he's not worth having on your roster at all.

Pine- Eli Manning- New York Giants- While I highly doubt anyone will be willingly starting the Giants signal caller any time soon, there may be some instances where fantasy owners have no choice. Maybe the bye week has you short handed or you play in a two quarterback league, but starting Eli Manning is a wise decision. Coming off of a five interception game in week 11 versus the 49ers and throwing six interceptions to only two touchdowns in his last two games, Eli Manning has become a fantasy after thought. He's also been held under 20 fantasy points the last two weeks and a matchup with the Cowboys won't do him any favors as the Dallas defense has help opposing quarterback to under 20 fantasy points all season.

Wide Receiver

Fine- A.J. Green- Cincinnati Bengals- Of course you should start A.J. Green every week if you own him. You didn't need me to tell you that. What you may have needed me to tell you is Green faces an opponent this week in the Houston Texans that is now allowing the most fantasy points to the wide receiver at almost 45 points per game. Even more in his favor is that Green is averaging over 12 fantasy points per game and has only one game this season where he was helps to single digit fantasy points and that was his first game back from his toe injury. If you're an A.J. Green owner, get him into your starting lineup and watch the fantasy points roll in.

Pine- Julio Jones- Atlanta Falcons- As obvious as I was with starting A.J. Green this week, I'm going to be bold with sitting the Falcons stud wide out Julio Jones for the simple reason of the production just hasn't been there this year. For starters, Jones will have Joe Haden covering him this week and secondly, Julio Jones has one double digit fantasy points games since week five. You read that right. One double digit fantasy points game since week five. That just won't cut it this close to the fantasy playoffs.

Running Back

Fine- Isaiah Crowell- Cleveland Browns- The Browns rookie back has scored 10.1 and 9.1 respectively his last two outings and the Atlanta Falcons happen to be the worst run defense in fantasy football in 2014 allowing 30 fantasy points per week to the running back position. With Crowell set to handle a majority of the carries this week, how can fantasy owners not like him to finish a top player at his position?

Pine- Jonas Gray- New England Patriots- There is a very simple theory behind my sitting Jonas Gray a week after he rushed for over 200 yards and a Patriots record four touchdowns. There is no way he or any player can repeat that performance. While Gray is more than worth a stash on any type of format in fantasy football, any owners that are rostering him cannot and should not expect that kind of production on a week to week basis. It will still be difficult to predict what the Patriots will do from week to week and there is always a chance that Jonas Gray isn't a big part of the Patriots' game plan in week 12. He faces a touch Detroit run defense who are in the top ten when it comes to defending against the run.

Tight End

Fine- Coby Fleener- Indianapolis Colts- With Dwayne Allen looking more and more like a no go for week 12, fantasy owners need to get Coby Fleener into their starting lineups if for this week only. With a matchup versus the Jaguars on tap, Coby Fleener becomes a top fantasy tight end this week before he even plays a snap. The Jaguars tend to forget about the tight end while they are allowing over 13 fantasy points per game to the position. Even more appealing for fantasy owners is that Fleener is coming off of back to back double digit fantasy points game and last week versus the Patriots, when Allen went out with his ankle injury, Fleener stepped up to the tune of seven catches for 144 yards all on seven targets. TE one all the way in week 12.

Pine- Vernon Davis- San Francisco 49ers- Let's face facts here fantasy owners. Vernon Davis is dead to us. At least for the remainder of this season. With one game of double digit fantasy points (way back in week one), VD provides no fantasy value whatsoever at this point and Colin Kaepernick doesn't even look his way much either. With no more than six targets and four receptions on the year, fantasy owners can find more production on their waiver wire.

D/ST

Fine- San Francisco 49ers- The 49ers have popped up everywhere in this article this week. Maybe that's because the 49ers face the lowly Redskins and while the San Francisco defense isn't what it has been under Jim Harbaugh, they still have a great matchup this week. The Redskins are an offense under Robert Griffin III, that either will throw interceptions, or just hold onto the ball longer that advised. Fantasy owners can expect a couple of turnovers from the 49ers defense in this game while holding the Washington offense in check as well.

Pine- Detroit Lions- I realize the Lions defense has been one of the better fantasy defenses this season, but the Patriots offense has been that much better since the beating they took at the hands of the Chiefs back in week five. With Tom Brady averaging 23 fantasy points per game and Gronk averaging almost 13 fantasy points per game, the New England Patriots are a team fantasy owners need to sit the opposing defenses for.