Surely if they just did it, then it has a great chance of happening again. They've proved that they have this skill. Right?
We do this week to week in football but also season to season. In baseball, basketball, and hockey it feels like almost a day to day thought process. Each of these have their own merits but they have very different impacts on your fantasy roster.
And, listen, I'm here to tell you that what happened last week is about the worst thing to use as a basis for your weekly waiver wire picks in fantasy football. Think about it logically and you may find yourself giving your own head the facepalm.
Why? Let me count the ways:
- Team Matchup - Perhaps there were team reasons why a player got certain statistics last week. The game plan could have been specifically designed based on the strength or weakness of the opponent and that led to the accrual of fantasy points for the player in question.
- Unit Matchup - Was this running back playing against a bad run-stopping defensive line? Or, did the defensive line fail to generate a pass rush to interrupt the rhythm of a particular waiver wire quarterback option? Last week's unit matchup might be the reason for those great stats.
- Individual Matchup - Did the wide receiver exploit a great matchup against a poor corner back? Did this tight end find themselves matched up against a beatable linebacker all day? This happens all the time. Every week, in fact. There is always a player who goes off based on a favorable individual matchup.
- It's Just One Week - Above all of these matchup considerations, remember that last week's stats were just one week. If you are six weeks into the season and the player was great in week #6 but lousy in weeks one through five, ask yourself why. Why did the player go off? Maybe it's just one of those fluky things. Maybe they were an injury replacement. Maybe they had a great matchup. Who knows? It's important to realize that it is in fact only one week.