When I as a kid one of the best candies you could buy was called Fun Dip. I don't even know if they still have it, so allow me to explain.
Fun Dip included a hard, white candy stick and three pockets of flavored sugar that was like what you would find in a Pixie Stick. There was just a lot more flavored sugar than you would get in a Pixie Stick. And, did I mention there were three pockets of flavor?
You lick the stick and then dip it into the flavored sugar and then lick it again. Grape was my favorite with lime a close second. Cherry was clearly number three and only used in case of an emergency. The inevitable emergency always came, though... No more grape or lime.
And when cherry was gone you had to eat the stick. A hard substance with a vaguely vanilla-like flavor. It wasn't all that bad once it was your last option because the flavor was all gone.
Injuries in the NFL are like running out of grape flavor. You immediately as yourself if there still some lime flavor left... or do you have to resort to cherry? If the cherry is gone, maybe you can at least eat the stick?
And, it goes without saying that there have been a lot of big injuries already this summer in the NFL. A few big names and several more lesser names that still might create a big impact for fantasy leagues. Sometimes there is some lime flavor left. Sometimes you have to eat the stick. Let's examine.
Dennis Pitta - The obvious benefactor here is Ed Dickson. He jumps up in the tight end rankings, but he isn't the difference maker that Pitta could be. But, with him gone and the loss of Anquan Boldin the Ravens will be looking for someone to make those short to intermediate pass receptions. That guy is not Torrey Smith and definitely not Jacoby Jones, so who is left? Dickson, right? Yes, I suppose so... if you are going to go with the process of elimination. That is why Dickson has bumped up the tight end list, but I wonder if this increases the value of Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. It is possible that they will lean on those two even more now that there is an even greater void in the short-range pass game. So, Dickson is probably a cherry flavor and the already grapiness of Rice gets even sweeter.
Danario Alexander - How many knee injuries can one guy have? I don't know, but I do know that Danario Alexander is glad we don't have four legs like most mammals. So, where do we go from here? Vincent Brown is the obvious choice to get more targets, but he is a guy that missed most of last season. He's a good flier at your WR4 position but I wouldn't count on him. This also drops Philip Rivers a few more notches, too, all the way into hard candy stick country.
Jeremy Maclin - A lot of people were excited to see what Maclin would do in the Chip Kelly offense. People have been wondering who the quarterback will be, how much work backup running back Bryce Brown will get, and how many targets go to the top receivers. Well, with Maclin out more of those looks figure to got to DeSean Jackson and while Jackson hasn't lived up to his immense potential he remains a dynamic threat on the field. More targets means more pitches at which to take home run hacks. In other words, getting the ball to Jackson more often will give him needed opportunities to score more often. I'd say that the loss of Maclin could give Jackson an additional 200 yards receiving and maybe three more touchdowns.
Michael Crabtree - He might not be out for the full NFL season, but he does figure to be gone for the full regular season in fantasy. Even if he returns in week 14 you aren't going to feel comfortable starting him, so it's best to stay away. The wide receiver position in San Francisco is a bit of a mess and I don't think anyone really knows where they will turn. They could bring in a free agent off of the street, so this situation remains fluid. As it is, they have Mario Manningham, A.J. Jenkins, and Kyle Williams at the top of the depth chart to go along with presumed slot guy Anquan Boldin. Boldin probably won't see much more action with the loss of Crabtree, so someone else will have to emerge. Manningham and Williams are candidates to start the season on the PUP list and Jenkins disappointed as a rookie last year. Your guess is as good as anyone's, so there is profit potential here. Monitor the situation and keep an eye out to see who is building a rapport with Colin Kaepernick. One last note, I believe that Vernon Davis has a lot of value in this offense and might see a small bump from the loss of Crabtree. Davis had a poor regular season last year but a great post-season... My opinion is that Kaepernick and Davis started to develop some chemistry and they keep it going into this season.
Easy-to-use fantasy sports strategy. That's what we are all about here at the Brain. Join fantasy sports veteran and former ESPN Producer Dave McKay as we reveal new ways to think about the game. @TalktotheBrain
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
Tuesday, August 6, 2013
The Curious Case of Jay Cutler
My family has a three year old beagle named Norm. Norm is an amazing dog and he fits the personality of our family perfectly... Maybe too perfectly. He gets excited easily, he's full of life, has lots of fun, and treats visitors to our home with all the love in his heart.
But even after all of this time you'd think a simple dog wouldn't still be able to surprise us, but he does. You'd think that you'd know this beast by now, but he keeps coming up with new tricks like figuring out how to get inside the trashcan lid. Or playing with a treat like it's a toy instead of eating it.
Sometimes Norm is crazy. Sometimes he's laid back and chill. Sometimes he follows us around the house. Sometimes he can't be bothered.
It's the same with Jay Cutler. We should know what we have in Cutler by now, but I don't think we do. He just turned 30 years old and he's entering his eighth year in the league. He's even had a quarterback rating between 85 and 88 for five of his seven years. The other two years weren't that far out of whack with a 76 and an 81.
So, why can't we trust him? Because his other numbers have been all over the place. In 2009 he led the league with 26 interceptions. His 4.7% interception rate was the highest of his career, but most years he's around 3% or so. He's good for about 16 picks, but there's always the chance he slings 26 again.
Touchdowns? In his five full seasons he's had 19, 20, 23, 25, and 27. And not in that order. Which is it? Will he throw 19 TD's and 26 INT's, or the other way around?
If he gets you 27 TD's and 16 INT's then he's a fifth round pick. It could happen. It probably won't happen. But it could happen.
Yardage is pretty similar. In 2008 he threw for 282 yards per game, a number he has yet to come close to repeating. In his other seasons he's ranged between 202 and 231. The 202 was last year. The 231 was two years ago.
His rushing capabilities are pretty solid, though... He'll get a little over 200 yards on the ground and probably one score. That's good for about 2 points a week, which is nothing to write home about but it's better than the average pocket passer.
At the moment, Cutler is the 17th quarterback off the board. He's being taken with the 128th pick on average, which is an 11th rounder in a 12-team draft.
With quarterback guru Marc Trestman in town and an upgraded offensive line, we are seeing some of our 'green flags.' Also, Alshon Jeffery is a year older and they added Martellus Bennett. Brandon Marshall appears healthy as does Matt Forte. The weapons are there for Cutler.
And, at the age of 30 he's still in the window of his 'prime profile.' He's probably got one very strong season still in him, and this could be the year.
It seems like Cutler is a good gamble, especially in the 11th round. Look, he could chase his tail all year or refuse to fetch your fantasy stats for you. He might fall flat on his face, but he has as strong a chance to break out as any.
I'm looking for 3,920 passing yards, 25 TD's, 16 INT's, and 230 rushing yards with one score on the ground. That's 15.9 points per week in a standard scoring league, which is pretty strong. In my opinion there is more upside there than with some of the other names going near him in drafts. With my QB2 I'd rather gamble on upside.
But even after all of this time you'd think a simple dog wouldn't still be able to surprise us, but he does. You'd think that you'd know this beast by now, but he keeps coming up with new tricks like figuring out how to get inside the trashcan lid. Or playing with a treat like it's a toy instead of eating it.
Sometimes Norm is crazy. Sometimes he's laid back and chill. Sometimes he follows us around the house. Sometimes he can't be bothered.
It's the same with Jay Cutler. We should know what we have in Cutler by now, but I don't think we do. He just turned 30 years old and he's entering his eighth year in the league. He's even had a quarterback rating between 85 and 88 for five of his seven years. The other two years weren't that far out of whack with a 76 and an 81.
So, why can't we trust him? Because his other numbers have been all over the place. In 2009 he led the league with 26 interceptions. His 4.7% interception rate was the highest of his career, but most years he's around 3% or so. He's good for about 16 picks, but there's always the chance he slings 26 again.
Touchdowns? In his five full seasons he's had 19, 20, 23, 25, and 27. And not in that order. Which is it? Will he throw 19 TD's and 26 INT's, or the other way around?
If he gets you 27 TD's and 16 INT's then he's a fifth round pick. It could happen. It probably won't happen. But it could happen.
Yardage is pretty similar. In 2008 he threw for 282 yards per game, a number he has yet to come close to repeating. In his other seasons he's ranged between 202 and 231. The 202 was last year. The 231 was two years ago.
His rushing capabilities are pretty solid, though... He'll get a little over 200 yards on the ground and probably one score. That's good for about 2 points a week, which is nothing to write home about but it's better than the average pocket passer.
At the moment, Cutler is the 17th quarterback off the board. He's being taken with the 128th pick on average, which is an 11th rounder in a 12-team draft.
With quarterback guru Marc Trestman in town and an upgraded offensive line, we are seeing some of our 'green flags.' Also, Alshon Jeffery is a year older and they added Martellus Bennett. Brandon Marshall appears healthy as does Matt Forte. The weapons are there for Cutler.
And, at the age of 30 he's still in the window of his 'prime profile.' He's probably got one very strong season still in him, and this could be the year.
It seems like Cutler is a good gamble, especially in the 11th round. Look, he could chase his tail all year or refuse to fetch your fantasy stats for you. He might fall flat on his face, but he has as strong a chance to break out as any.
I'm looking for 3,920 passing yards, 25 TD's, 16 INT's, and 230 rushing yards with one score on the ground. That's 15.9 points per week in a standard scoring league, which is pretty strong. In my opinion there is more upside there than with some of the other names going near him in drafts. With my QB2 I'd rather gamble on upside.
Monday, August 5, 2013
Using Our Player Rankings
The only way to get the Brain's exclusive 2013 Top 300 Player Rankings spreadsheet is to sign up for the mailing list. The good news is that it is completely FREE!
I've introduced some new concepts in the rankings spreadsheet, so I thought I would explain myself and show you how to use the rankings.
Okay, here we go. The rankings only list running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends. 300 of them. No defenses or kickers. You'll have to figure that out on your own... Well, we'll help you in other ways but they aren't listed on this spreadsheet. (Alright, here's a quick note: In my opinion the Cleveland defense will surprise a lot of people this year and you can get them super late. They added lots of impressive talent plus near-legendary coordinator Ray Horton. Also, I still love Sebastian Janikowski, especially in leagues with bonus points for longer field goals. That Oakland offense will stall a lot, which means a lot of field goal attempts.)
Across the top of the spreadsheet are column headers that have a little dropdown arrow button. If you click that arrow you can sort the whole spreadsheet by that column... So, if you sort by passing touchdowns all of the quarterbacks will bump to the top and if you sort by player name you'll get an alphabetical list, etc.
Over to the right there is a column that is called "total points." That is the total number of points the player will score in a standard scoring system based off of the projected statistics. This column won't help you too much.
What will help you are the columns to the right that are labeled "VAST" and "VEST." These columns are numbers that I have invented to show you comparative value of players, even from different positions.
VAST shows you the value of a player versus the average starter in a 12-team league ('Versus Average STarter'). I took the top twelve at quarterback and tight end and the top 30 at running back and wide receiver and found the average projected point total among those players. I then subtracted that average from the projected point total for each individual player.
The thinking with VAST is that it shows you the value of a player against what a typical starter in your league is likely to be. In other words, if there are twelve starting quarterbacks and the VAST for your guy is zero points, then he projects to be exactly average if you start him every week. He has no comparative advantage over the course of the full season, but also no comparative disadvantage. It bears noting that this number will be a negative for most of the quarterbacks since only the top six have a chance to give you a full-time comparative advantage.
There are only a few guys that you want to roll with every week without questioning their matchup. This is something many of us know, especially here at the Brain.
VEST shows the value of a player versus the average of the extended list of starters at a position. ('Versus Extended STarters') All I mean by "extended" is that it is the full list of probable starters for each position. For the default spreadsheet I assumed a 12-team league that starts one quarterback, one tight end, two running backs, two wide receivers, and one RB/WR flex. Feel free to tweak this to match your league.
The good thing about this number is that it lets you know if you have a comparative advantage over all of the likely players that are scoring points in starting rosters any given week. We remove bench options and free agents since they don't score any points that matter. What you want to know with VEST is if your running back is likely to provide better than 'replacement level' production over the course of the season. If will also show you the strength of your bench options since you can tell how far they are from being starting material. (In other words, how big is the negative VEST number?)
Again, it's all free for you. I wanted to provide something really special for you when you sign up for my list, so I tried to provide a more interesting Top 300 list that has some additional wrinkles that are easy to understand but that provide more value to you than a typical player rankings list.
So, put your email address in the box at the top of the page (or below) and I'll send it out. I'll do my best to get it out within 24 hours.
I've introduced some new concepts in the rankings spreadsheet, so I thought I would explain myself and show you how to use the rankings.
Okay, here we go. The rankings only list running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends. 300 of them. No defenses or kickers. You'll have to figure that out on your own... Well, we'll help you in other ways but they aren't listed on this spreadsheet. (Alright, here's a quick note: In my opinion the Cleveland defense will surprise a lot of people this year and you can get them super late. They added lots of impressive talent plus near-legendary coordinator Ray Horton. Also, I still love Sebastian Janikowski, especially in leagues with bonus points for longer field goals. That Oakland offense will stall a lot, which means a lot of field goal attempts.)
Across the top of the spreadsheet are column headers that have a little dropdown arrow button. If you click that arrow you can sort the whole spreadsheet by that column... So, if you sort by passing touchdowns all of the quarterbacks will bump to the top and if you sort by player name you'll get an alphabetical list, etc.
Over to the right there is a column that is called "total points." That is the total number of points the player will score in a standard scoring system based off of the projected statistics. This column won't help you too much.
What will help you are the columns to the right that are labeled "VAST" and "VEST." These columns are numbers that I have invented to show you comparative value of players, even from different positions.
VAST shows you the value of a player versus the average starter in a 12-team league ('Versus Average STarter'). I took the top twelve at quarterback and tight end and the top 30 at running back and wide receiver and found the average projected point total among those players. I then subtracted that average from the projected point total for each individual player.
The thinking with VAST is that it shows you the value of a player against what a typical starter in your league is likely to be. In other words, if there are twelve starting quarterbacks and the VAST for your guy is zero points, then he projects to be exactly average if you start him every week. He has no comparative advantage over the course of the full season, but also no comparative disadvantage. It bears noting that this number will be a negative for most of the quarterbacks since only the top six have a chance to give you a full-time comparative advantage.
There are only a few guys that you want to roll with every week without questioning their matchup. This is something many of us know, especially here at the Brain.
VEST shows the value of a player versus the average of the extended list of starters at a position. ('Versus Extended STarters') All I mean by "extended" is that it is the full list of probable starters for each position. For the default spreadsheet I assumed a 12-team league that starts one quarterback, one tight end, two running backs, two wide receivers, and one RB/WR flex. Feel free to tweak this to match your league.
The good thing about this number is that it lets you know if you have a comparative advantage over all of the likely players that are scoring points in starting rosters any given week. We remove bench options and free agents since they don't score any points that matter. What you want to know with VEST is if your running back is likely to provide better than 'replacement level' production over the course of the season. If will also show you the strength of your bench options since you can tell how far they are from being starting material. (In other words, how big is the negative VEST number?)
Again, it's all free for you. I wanted to provide something really special for you when you sign up for my list, so I tried to provide a more interesting Top 300 list that has some additional wrinkles that are easy to understand but that provide more value to you than a typical player rankings list.
So, put your email address in the box at the top of the page (or below) and I'll send it out. I'll do my best to get it out within 24 hours.
Success! The Work Continues...
Thank you! A huge thank you to all of you Brainiacs everywhere for making my book launch a success. With your support, "Getting Started with Fantasy Football" moved all the way up to the #3 Best Seller at Amazon in the Fantasy Sports category. The top two were Matthew Berry's brand new book and a book about Soccer.
The TMR and Futbol are forces of nature that I am not yet equipped to deal with, so I am ecstatic with the #3 ranking. Thank you, thank you!
Special thanks go out to my phenomenal brother Scot for the big effort to get the word out with his tribe. Thanks, big bro! You totally rock. (If you are here from there... thank you! Big shoes to fill, to be sure. I'll work hard to keep my quality level as high as Scot's!)
Additional thanks also go to the amazing guys at RotoWire for having me on their Sirius/XM show on Saturday. Thank you, guys! It was an honor to be on the air with you again and I hope the listeners got some value out of our conversation. (And if you followed me over to this site, I'll work hard to see that you continue to get value. Welcome, all you new Brainiacs!)
And additional thanks go out to Matthew Berry for taking a moment to tweet back at me on Saturday even as I was in the midst of an (unsuccessful) assault on his #1 Best Seller status:
Lastly, if you didn't get any of the free bonuses or something didn't arrive as it should... please let me know. Shoot a message to me and I'll hook you up: dave@thefantasysportsbrain.com
And, if you haven't signed up for my mailing list please do so below. You'll get my personal 2013 Top 300 Player Rankings for FREE! (It is the only way to get my rankings.) My next post will explain how to use the rankings and exactly what "VAST" and "VEST" are. Stayed tuned!
Thanks again, everyone! If you want to see the book on Amazon, click the picture below:
Saturday, August 3, 2013
Book Launch Day: Everything You Need to Know
Hello Brainiacs, new and old. Thank you for joining me for the official launch of my new book: "Getting Started with Fantasy Football: From Zero to Legit in One Day."
This post will tell you everything you need to know about launch day.
Today I am offering a quadruple bonus when you buy the book, plus another bonus for signing up to my update list. It is a two-step process:
STEP ONE: Buy the book. $2.99 for the Kindle version (you don't have to have a Kindle device) or $4.99 for the printed hard copy. Click HERE!
STEP TWO: Sign up for my update list: Click HERE! Or, use the form below:
That's it! Buy the book and sign up for the list and I'll send you all kinds of bonuses, including all of these:
Quadruple Book Bonus:
- The PDF Version
- The AudioBook Version (might be delayed a couple days for editing... but don't worry!)
- The Draft Prep Spreadsheet that I talk about in the book
- The Report: "The Roster Ladder" which is my take on value-based drafting
Update List Sign-up Bonus:
- The Exclusive 2013 Player Rankings from The Brain (300 players ranked!)
That's it... easy as that. It's $16 value for $2.99. Thank you so much for being a part of launch day! We're happy to have you here at the Brain! Thank you!
Thursday, August 1, 2013
Super-Sleepers for your Fantasy Football Draft
In the “No Brainer” plan that I outline in my audio training
series (“The Program”) as well as in my book (“Getting Started with FantasyFootball: From Zero to Legit in One Day”) I reserve the last round for what I
call a ‘lottery ticket.’
There are several reasons why I am a proponent of this
concept, so allow me to explain and then I’ll give you a full set of guys who
could still be available to you in the last round.
Okay, here we go… The
conventional wisdom is
Fantasy Football: The Dream Draft
It's August 1st, and that means official fantasy football draft month is upon us. I thought I might take a stab at what the perfect draft might look like and also a swing at the worst draft.
Here's what I'll do: I'll look at the ADP listings over at Fantasy Football Calculator and make a selection from each set of 12. So, I'll select the guy I like the best from #1-#12 and then the one I like the best from #13-#24, and so on. I realize that this may leave me taking #1, #13, #25, etc... but I think that over the course of the draft it will all come out in the wash. I'll also throw in my thoughts about why the guy I picked is the best value.
The assumption with this league is that there are two starting running backs, two at wide receiver, and one each everywhere else including flex. It is also assumed here that flex is RB/WR/TE.
Okay? Here we go:
1st Round - Adrian Peterson. Okay, so he is everyone's #1 overall and I had to take him here. My apologies for the boring pick. You want non-boring? Okay, in that case I'd take
Here's what I'll do: I'll look at the ADP listings over at Fantasy Football Calculator and make a selection from each set of 12. So, I'll select the guy I like the best from #1-#12 and then the one I like the best from #13-#24, and so on. I realize that this may leave me taking #1, #13, #25, etc... but I think that over the course of the draft it will all come out in the wash. I'll also throw in my thoughts about why the guy I picked is the best value.
The assumption with this league is that there are two starting running backs, two at wide receiver, and one each everywhere else including flex. It is also assumed here that flex is RB/WR/TE.
Okay? Here we go:
1st Round - Adrian Peterson. Okay, so he is everyone's #1 overall and I had to take him here. My apologies for the boring pick. You want non-boring? Okay, in that case I'd take
Monday, July 29, 2013
Modifying "Back-to-Back Quarterback"
If you've read the book (click here to see it!) or you have been a student of my "Master's Degree in Fantasy Football" then you've heard me talk about the "Back-to-Back Quarterback" strategy. I'll give you a quick recap and then we can start to color outside of the lines a bit with 2013 in mind.
In a nutshell, the idea is that quality running backs are a very scarce commodity and stud wide receivers are also relatively scarce. At quarterback you tend to have a few top-end guys followed by a strong second tier, and then everyone else. Quarterback is not as scarce as running back or wide receiver and is also heavily affected by matchups.
Okay, so with all of that in mind, the "Back-to-Back Quarterback" strategy says to start your draft with three running backs and three wide receivers (in some order) in the first six rounds and then follow those picks with quarterbacks in both round seven and round eight. The rationale is that you'll get two guys in the #8-#12 range as far as the pre-season rankings and then during the season you would roll with whomever has the better matchup that week.
The strategy gives you an automatic bye week replacement and insurance against injury. If deployed properly, your two guys should perform at a level similar to a much higher-ranked guy (the #4 QB, maybe) since that guy gets played even when the matchups are unfavorable. The best part? You improved your roster with all of the early picks at running back and wide receiver.
That's a quick version of it... There is more to it, but that's the idea.
Cool, but can we modify the concept this year? Should we even try to modify it? Maybe. I recently wrote an article in this space talking about how there are a lot of red flags for quarterbacks in the #3-#10 range and that there is a chance of guys in the #11-#24 (yes, as low as #24!) bumping up into the top 10 this year.
In other words, you could possibly look back in five months and see Jay Cutler ranked higher than Russell Wilson for the season. That's not so outlandish, right? Take a look at Ryan, Stafford, Romo, Luck, Kaepernick, Wilson, Griffin, Brady, Peyton Manning, and Newton. Those are the quarterbacks currently ranked from #3-#12 but I listed them in a random order to illustrate a point. Those dudes could slot in this year in any order and I wouldn't be surprised. (By the way, maybe this cements the value of Rodgers and Brees? Not sure, but don't get distracted... We venture forth!) Plus, I'm willing to bet that one of them slips pretty far in a 12-team league and two or three of them in a 10-teamer.
And when I say "slip" I'm talking at least a couple of rounds past their ADP. The idea is that all of your competitors will grab their QB in an early round and then not even think about a backup until the double-digit rounds... round 11, round 12, round 13. Maybe later.
So, if the quarterbacks from #3 all the way to #24 have some unpredictability to them... let's get a little crazy. Since they are so affected by matchup and running back and wide receiver are more valuable resources, would it be insane to take four running backs, four wide receivers, and a tight end in the first nine rounds? What if you followed that up with three QB's in rounds 10, 11, and 12?
That really juices the value of your RB's and WR's while giving you even more flexibility and maneuverability at QB. If picking the best matchup among two QB's in the #8-#12 range is a good strategy, isn't it even better to pick between three guys in the #11-#16 range?
Well, maybe. Maybe not. It is worth a look, so let's dig into some potential draft picks with each version of this strategy.
With the original version you'd use round seven and round eight for QB's that look like this and then use rounds ten and eleven for a RB4 and a WR4 like this:
With the modified version you'd have a RB4 in round seven, WR4 in round eight, and then QB's in rounds ten, eleven, and twelve. So, what would you think of rolling with something like this:
One obvious caveat is that you are using one more bench spot on a third QB, so there's less speculation on RB's and WR's. Hopefully you won't need the extra speculation spot since you used rounds seven and eight on a RB and a WR and those positions are already upgraded.
Anyway, I'm always thinking of modifying the basic "No Brainer" draft strategy, especially with regard to the flux in rankings year to year. This could be a nice way to do just that depending on league composition and the length of your bench.
You can also deploy this strategy on the fly. Take a look at how many QB's are drafted in the first six rounds. If you are already nine or ten deep I would say that means your competitors are investing fairly heavily in their QB1 so they may have a greater inclination to wait on their QB2. As you go, you can get a feel for how long those second tier QB's will be hanging around, and adjust accordingly.
In a nutshell, the idea is that quality running backs are a very scarce commodity and stud wide receivers are also relatively scarce. At quarterback you tend to have a few top-end guys followed by a strong second tier, and then everyone else. Quarterback is not as scarce as running back or wide receiver and is also heavily affected by matchups.
Okay, so with all of that in mind, the "Back-to-Back Quarterback" strategy says to start your draft with three running backs and three wide receivers (in some order) in the first six rounds and then follow those picks with quarterbacks in both round seven and round eight. The rationale is that you'll get two guys in the #8-#12 range as far as the pre-season rankings and then during the season you would roll with whomever has the better matchup that week.
The strategy gives you an automatic bye week replacement and insurance against injury. If deployed properly, your two guys should perform at a level similar to a much higher-ranked guy (the #4 QB, maybe) since that guy gets played even when the matchups are unfavorable. The best part? You improved your roster with all of the early picks at running back and wide receiver.
That's a quick version of it... There is more to it, but that's the idea.
Cool, but can we modify the concept this year? Should we even try to modify it? Maybe. I recently wrote an article in this space talking about how there are a lot of red flags for quarterbacks in the #3-#10 range and that there is a chance of guys in the #11-#24 (yes, as low as #24!) bumping up into the top 10 this year.
In other words, you could possibly look back in five months and see Jay Cutler ranked higher than Russell Wilson for the season. That's not so outlandish, right? Take a look at Ryan, Stafford, Romo, Luck, Kaepernick, Wilson, Griffin, Brady, Peyton Manning, and Newton. Those are the quarterbacks currently ranked from #3-#12 but I listed them in a random order to illustrate a point. Those dudes could slot in this year in any order and I wouldn't be surprised. (By the way, maybe this cements the value of Rodgers and Brees? Not sure, but don't get distracted... We venture forth!) Plus, I'm willing to bet that one of them slips pretty far in a 12-team league and two or three of them in a 10-teamer.
And when I say "slip" I'm talking at least a couple of rounds past their ADP. The idea is that all of your competitors will grab their QB in an early round and then not even think about a backup until the double-digit rounds... round 11, round 12, round 13. Maybe later.
So, if the quarterbacks from #3 all the way to #24 have some unpredictability to them... let's get a little crazy. Since they are so affected by matchup and running back and wide receiver are more valuable resources, would it be insane to take four running backs, four wide receivers, and a tight end in the first nine rounds? What if you followed that up with three QB's in rounds 10, 11, and 12?
That really juices the value of your RB's and WR's while giving you even more flexibility and maneuverability at QB. If picking the best matchup among two QB's in the #8-#12 range is a good strategy, isn't it even better to pick between three guys in the #11-#16 range?
Well, maybe. Maybe not. It is worth a look, so let's dig into some potential draft picks with each version of this strategy.
With the original version you'd use round seven and round eight for QB's that look like this and then use rounds ten and eleven for a RB4 and a WR4 like this:
- QB1: Andrew Luck
- QB2: Eli Manning
- RB4: Jonathan Franklin
- WR4: Sidney Rice
With the modified version you'd have a RB4 in round seven, WR4 in round eight, and then QB's in rounds ten, eleven, and twelve. So, what would you think of rolling with something like this:
- RB4: Daryl Richardson
- WR4: Stevie Johnson
- QB1: Michael Vick
- QB2: Ben Roethlisberger
- QB3: Jay Cutler
One obvious caveat is that you are using one more bench spot on a third QB, so there's less speculation on RB's and WR's. Hopefully you won't need the extra speculation spot since you used rounds seven and eight on a RB and a WR and those positions are already upgraded.
Anyway, I'm always thinking of modifying the basic "No Brainer" draft strategy, especially with regard to the flux in rankings year to year. This could be a nice way to do just that depending on league composition and the length of your bench.
You can also deploy this strategy on the fly. Take a look at how many QB's are drafted in the first six rounds. If you are already nine or ten deep I would say that means your competitors are investing fairly heavily in their QB1 so they may have a greater inclination to wait on their QB2. As you go, you can get a feel for how long those second tier QB's will be hanging around, and adjust accordingly.
Friday, July 19, 2013
Team Talk: Arizona Cardinals
I'm finding myself more and more fascinated by the Arizona Cardinals this year. It seems like every position on the team with fantasy relevance has a legitimate case as a potential draft day bargain.
Let me show you what I mean:
Carson Palmer - Is he all the way back to being a legit NFL stud quarterback? What sort of impact will Larry Fitzgerald have on his fantasy numbers? Even on a terrible Raiders team last year, Palmer achieved a quarterback rating near his career average. He was only 113 yards shy of his career best season (crazy, right?) and threw a respectable 22 TD's. He did have some turnover issues with 14 picks and five fumbles, but there is undeniable upside with the weapons he now has around him.
Larry Fitzgerald - Which leads us to Fitz. Last year he had the lowest yards per reception of his career and also the fewest receptions per target of his career. However, if you think for a second that it has anything to do with Fitzgerald you're crazy. He was dealing with a corps of quarterbacks with inaccurate, rag arms. The inaccuracy led to a lower number of targets being completed, and the weak arms led to fewer yards when the pass was completed. He won't have to worry about that anymore. It feels like he's been around forever, but the guy is still only 29 years old. In my opinion you'll see around 90 receptions for 1,224 yards and eight touchdowns... with upside for more. The best thing about Fitzgerald is that his floor is very high, but he also has a ceiling that is as high as just about any wide receiver in football. His value is depressed due to the historically poor Cardinal quarterback play of 2012, so there should be some value there.
Rashard Mendenhall - What do you do with this guy? He's still just 26 years old, he's got the pedigree of a first round draft pick, he has had success in the NFL, and he's the unquestioned starting running back in Arizona. What's more, he's playing behind an improved offensive line that grabbed Jonathan Cooper (G) in the 1st round of the draft. That all sounds great, right? The problem of course, was that he was injured for virtually the entire 2012 season. He only had 51 carries last year, and didn't really do anything with them when he did get the rock. He's supposed to be healthy now, and we'll believe it when we see it. However if he is, I believe he'll produce stats that are in line with his 2009 season which would look something like 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns. For where he's going in drafts, those are strong numbers that represent value.
Rob Housler - Talk about intriguing. Do you remember what Carson Palmer did for Brandon Myers last year? Do you remember what Myers had done in his entire career before the breakout? Well, suffice it to say that Palmer can make a star out of a tight end. And, in my opinion, he's got more to work with in Housler. What would you say if this guy got you 70 receptions for 775 yards and six touchdowns? If he can do that he represents a viable starter (albeit a low-end one) at tight end at the low cost of your last round draft pick.
The Defense - Now it gets interesting. In 2012 the Cardinals defense had the tell-tale sign of a decent fantasy DST that was a poor one in real life. That being a great record against the pass and a bad showing versus the rush. So to break that down, opposing teams could run on them and grind down the clock without having to put the ball in the air too often. It was easy to beat the Cards last year. They scored 250 points and allowed 357, and that ain't good. You didn't even have to try to run up the score on them because the offense was so bad. This year, that probably changes with an improved offense. But listen, I think the defense is better too... and I actually like the fact that opposing offenses will have to open things up against Arizona. They may or may not allow more points, but if the other team is throwing more then there are more opportunities for the sacks and interceptions that fuel a fantasy DST. This unit added Kevin Minter (LB) in the 2nd round of the draft, Tyrann Mathieu (SS) in the 3rd, and Alex Okafor (DE) in the 4th. All of those guys were highly regarded players that slipped for one reason or another. The point is that they added significant talent through the draft. They also added useful pieces like Antoine Cason (CB) to a defense that already had a dynamic leader in Patrick Peterson (CB). In the final analysis, I believe this is an opportunistic unit that will still give up points but will score enough fantasy points to be a low-end starter most weeks.
Michael Floyd - Floyd is a real wild card. They took him in the first round of the draft just last year so they are invested in his success. He might have been better than you think in his rookie year. He caught more than half of his targets and averaged 12.3 yards per reception. Both of those numbers were better than Fitzgerald in 2012. Now he's got a year of experience under his belt and a vastly superior quarterback in Palmer. Plus, there's an improved offensive line, a potentially better running game, and Fitz will be dealing with double teams on the other side of the field. All of that points to opportunity for the highly touted 2nd year wideout. Again, for where he is going in drafts you have to think there is big upside. Would it shock you if he got 75 balls for 938 yards and five touchdowns? He's a hard one to predict, but those numbers wouldn't shock me. I don't really see anyone other than Andre Roberts who could threaten to take his WR2 targets from him, either. There should be plenty of opportunity for Floyd in 2013.
Jay Feely - Okay, he's a kicker and he's old so there isn't a whole lot to say. One statistic that jumps out to me is that he connected on 89.3% of his field goal attempts last year. That is an elite number. If the offense is better this year as we predict, he ought to improve on an already solid number of 100 points in 2012. You always like to see kickers in a dome too, plus the Cards don't have their bye until week nine. So, you could take Feely in your draft and forget about the kicker slot for eight weeks. Sounds good to me.
Let me show you what I mean:
Carson Palmer - Is he all the way back to being a legit NFL stud quarterback? What sort of impact will Larry Fitzgerald have on his fantasy numbers? Even on a terrible Raiders team last year, Palmer achieved a quarterback rating near his career average. He was only 113 yards shy of his career best season (crazy, right?) and threw a respectable 22 TD's. He did have some turnover issues with 14 picks and five fumbles, but there is undeniable upside with the weapons he now has around him.
Larry Fitzgerald - Which leads us to Fitz. Last year he had the lowest yards per reception of his career and also the fewest receptions per target of his career. However, if you think for a second that it has anything to do with Fitzgerald you're crazy. He was dealing with a corps of quarterbacks with inaccurate, rag arms. The inaccuracy led to a lower number of targets being completed, and the weak arms led to fewer yards when the pass was completed. He won't have to worry about that anymore. It feels like he's been around forever, but the guy is still only 29 years old. In my opinion you'll see around 90 receptions for 1,224 yards and eight touchdowns... with upside for more. The best thing about Fitzgerald is that his floor is very high, but he also has a ceiling that is as high as just about any wide receiver in football. His value is depressed due to the historically poor Cardinal quarterback play of 2012, so there should be some value there.
Rashard Mendenhall - What do you do with this guy? He's still just 26 years old, he's got the pedigree of a first round draft pick, he has had success in the NFL, and he's the unquestioned starting running back in Arizona. What's more, he's playing behind an improved offensive line that grabbed Jonathan Cooper (G) in the 1st round of the draft. That all sounds great, right? The problem of course, was that he was injured for virtually the entire 2012 season. He only had 51 carries last year, and didn't really do anything with them when he did get the rock. He's supposed to be healthy now, and we'll believe it when we see it. However if he is, I believe he'll produce stats that are in line with his 2009 season which would look something like 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns. For where he's going in drafts, those are strong numbers that represent value.
Rob Housler - Talk about intriguing. Do you remember what Carson Palmer did for Brandon Myers last year? Do you remember what Myers had done in his entire career before the breakout? Well, suffice it to say that Palmer can make a star out of a tight end. And, in my opinion, he's got more to work with in Housler. What would you say if this guy got you 70 receptions for 775 yards and six touchdowns? If he can do that he represents a viable starter (albeit a low-end one) at tight end at the low cost of your last round draft pick.
The Defense - Now it gets interesting. In 2012 the Cardinals defense had the tell-tale sign of a decent fantasy DST that was a poor one in real life. That being a great record against the pass and a bad showing versus the rush. So to break that down, opposing teams could run on them and grind down the clock without having to put the ball in the air too often. It was easy to beat the Cards last year. They scored 250 points and allowed 357, and that ain't good. You didn't even have to try to run up the score on them because the offense was so bad. This year, that probably changes with an improved offense. But listen, I think the defense is better too... and I actually like the fact that opposing offenses will have to open things up against Arizona. They may or may not allow more points, but if the other team is throwing more then there are more opportunities for the sacks and interceptions that fuel a fantasy DST. This unit added Kevin Minter (LB) in the 2nd round of the draft, Tyrann Mathieu (SS) in the 3rd, and Alex Okafor (DE) in the 4th. All of those guys were highly regarded players that slipped for one reason or another. The point is that they added significant talent through the draft. They also added useful pieces like Antoine Cason (CB) to a defense that already had a dynamic leader in Patrick Peterson (CB). In the final analysis, I believe this is an opportunistic unit that will still give up points but will score enough fantasy points to be a low-end starter most weeks.
Michael Floyd - Floyd is a real wild card. They took him in the first round of the draft just last year so they are invested in his success. He might have been better than you think in his rookie year. He caught more than half of his targets and averaged 12.3 yards per reception. Both of those numbers were better than Fitzgerald in 2012. Now he's got a year of experience under his belt and a vastly superior quarterback in Palmer. Plus, there's an improved offensive line, a potentially better running game, and Fitz will be dealing with double teams on the other side of the field. All of that points to opportunity for the highly touted 2nd year wideout. Again, for where he is going in drafts you have to think there is big upside. Would it shock you if he got 75 balls for 938 yards and five touchdowns? He's a hard one to predict, but those numbers wouldn't shock me. I don't really see anyone other than Andre Roberts who could threaten to take his WR2 targets from him, either. There should be plenty of opportunity for Floyd in 2013.
Jay Feely - Okay, he's a kicker and he's old so there isn't a whole lot to say. One statistic that jumps out to me is that he connected on 89.3% of his field goal attempts last year. That is an elite number. If the offense is better this year as we predict, he ought to improve on an already solid number of 100 points in 2012. You always like to see kickers in a dome too, plus the Cards don't have their bye until week nine. So, you could take Feely in your draft and forget about the kicker slot for eight weeks. Sounds good to me.
Thursday, July 18, 2013
The RotoWire Magazine
Go buy the RotoWire Fantasy Football Guide, Brainiacs! It was just released recently, so as far as magazine content goes it is as fresh as you'll find.
But, more than that, I'm one of the writers! (Indulge me, Brainiacs... You are my people.) I'm not sure I deserved to be involved since I have done so little writing with RotoWire so far, so it is a huge honor. Plus it is really, really cool to be able to go to Barnes & Noble and see your name in print.
Please celebrate with me! It feels like a pretty big deal to me and I'm really excited about it. I wanted to share it with you and to thank you for all of your support... Thank you, Brainiacs!
And again this year I will be writing the NFL Barometer column every week at Rotowire.com. You have to be a member of the site to read it, but the content you get has value that is far greater than the multitude of free sites on the Internet.
Except this one, of course. Of course.
Thanks, folks!
Getting Started with Fantasy Football
Don't buy my book! Okay, not yet anyway... I'm working on a quadruple bonus for an official launch of the book. The date for that launch is not yet set, but it will be the week after next week. (So, a day or two on either side of August 1st.)
Please be on the lookout for that, it should be pretty exciting. I'm really proud of the content in the book and I think you will get value out of it regardless of your experience level with fantasy football. If you do want to check it out on Amazon, click here!
Also, more good news... The eBook is $2.99 but it looks like I'll be able to do a printed, physical copy for only $4.74. It's also eligible for Prime shipping! Not bad!
So, I want to apologize for not posting a lot lately. I've been working on this book, the print version of it, the PDF, the audiobook, the next book, all of the associated sales channels (Amazon, e-Junkie, etc.), affiliate stuff... I am learning an absolute ton about all of this. Thank you for your patience.
Plus, I am about 65% of the way done writing a mega-blogpost (>2,000 words) on super-sleeper last-round picks. After doing that research I wish I had five last round picks in my drafts this year... Late value in 2013 is incredible. I'm also down on a lot of middle-round picks. So, quick strategy tip for you. If you are in a league that allows draft pick trading, see if you can deal your 9th, 10th, and 11th for something like a 1st or 2nd plus a 15th and 16th.
Anyway, there's a lot going on! Stay tuned, Brainiacs!
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Denard Robinson: Planting a Flag
Okay, there are sleepers, there are deep sleepers, and there are guys no one is talking about. Denard Robinson falls somewhere in the latter part of that group.
So, if I'm going to plant a flag on a very deep sleeper, Robinson is my guy. There aren't a ton of reasons, so this may be a short post. I just wanted to go on the record.
Opportunity - MoJo Drew is the starter, but he has a surgically repaired foot and may not yet be all the way back. Plus he had a very public contract dispute last year plus some alleged off-field issues lately. There are a lot of things to worry about with MoJo. He's also a free agent after this year and not likely to re-sign with the Jags, so they may be eager to see what else they have. So, who is the backup? Justin Forsett? Jordan Todman? It's not exactly like Robinson has to climb over Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson for playing time. I believe you'll see Denard Robinson get at least 10 touches a game this year, maybe more.
Chris Johnson Comp - Denard Robinson is almost exactly the same height, weight, and speed as Chris Johnson. Does that mean he will run for 2,000 yards? DR2K? No, it doesn't mean that. But, does that mean that he could possibly run for 2,000 yards in the NFL? Well, a guy with the identical size and speed did it a few years ago. So, yeah, anything's possible.
Improved Offensive Line - They spent the #2 overall pick on Luke Joeckel which solidifies the entire unit. It may not be a top 10 offensive line, but it could be just inside the top half of the league. For someone with Robinson's speed, he only needs a crack of daylight.
So, I'm planting a flag on Robinson. I believe he'll get some opportunities to perform this year and I think he'll do some work with those chances. For the last pick of your draft it's a good gamble.
So, if I'm going to plant a flag on a very deep sleeper, Robinson is my guy. There aren't a ton of reasons, so this may be a short post. I just wanted to go on the record.
Opportunity - MoJo Drew is the starter, but he has a surgically repaired foot and may not yet be all the way back. Plus he had a very public contract dispute last year plus some alleged off-field issues lately. There are a lot of things to worry about with MoJo. He's also a free agent after this year and not likely to re-sign with the Jags, so they may be eager to see what else they have. So, who is the backup? Justin Forsett? Jordan Todman? It's not exactly like Robinson has to climb over Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson for playing time. I believe you'll see Denard Robinson get at least 10 touches a game this year, maybe more.
Chris Johnson Comp - Denard Robinson is almost exactly the same height, weight, and speed as Chris Johnson. Does that mean he will run for 2,000 yards? DR2K? No, it doesn't mean that. But, does that mean that he could possibly run for 2,000 yards in the NFL? Well, a guy with the identical size and speed did it a few years ago. So, yeah, anything's possible.
Improved Offensive Line - They spent the #2 overall pick on Luke Joeckel which solidifies the entire unit. It may not be a top 10 offensive line, but it could be just inside the top half of the league. For someone with Robinson's speed, he only needs a crack of daylight.
So, I'm planting a flag on Robinson. I believe he'll get some opportunities to perform this year and I think he'll do some work with those chances. For the last pick of your draft it's a good gamble.
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
C. J. Spiller - Am I Alone Here?
I feel a bit or responsibility this year with C.J. Spiller. I was one of the writers for the Bills preview in the RotoWire magazine and I didn't exactly sing his praises. I said he was a dynamic talent in the prime of his career, but I also said that he gives me pause.
But am I alone in this? I mean, Spiller seems to be everyone's first round sleeper this year. The production last year was awesome and his career YPC is fantastic.
So, why am I worried? Let me count the ways:
Carrying the Load - Spiller is likely to have a rookie quarterback this year so defenses will aim to stop the running game. Fred Jackson doesn't scare anyone anymore, but Spiller sure does. Basically, you beat the Bills by stopping Spiller.
Consistency - The games where Spiller went off last year were great. You probably won those matchups if you owned him. Unfortunately the opposite is true, too. There were six games last year where he had less than 60 yards rushing and five games where he went over 100. It's just too unpredictable for me.
Changes - New coaches, new staff, new scheme. Plus, he lost one of his best offensive linemen in Andy Levitre (who was basically not replaced). I don't have any faith in Doug Marrone or the offensive coordinator he brought with him from Syracuse. Prove me wrong, guys.
Track Record - Spiller wasn't nearly as good in his first two years as he was in his third. Was it a breakout season with more to come, or just a career season?
Was it really a breakout anyway? - Is 1,244 yards and six touchdowns an enormous breakout season anyway? It's a very strong season, no doubt. But if that is the ceiling, wouldn't you rather have Ray Rice, Alfred Morris, or LeSean McCoy? All three of those guys are being drafted right after Spiller. I'll take any of them since those guys have (demonstrably) a much higher ceiling and play on teams with better offenses around them.
Spiller is a dynamic weapon. He'll get tons of opportunity as the centerpiece of the new Bills offense. That's great, and I think he will do well. I just see more red flags than green flags when trying to make a first round decision this year.
But am I alone in this? I mean, Spiller seems to be everyone's first round sleeper this year. The production last year was awesome and his career YPC is fantastic.
So, why am I worried? Let me count the ways:
Carrying the Load - Spiller is likely to have a rookie quarterback this year so defenses will aim to stop the running game. Fred Jackson doesn't scare anyone anymore, but Spiller sure does. Basically, you beat the Bills by stopping Spiller.
Consistency - The games where Spiller went off last year were great. You probably won those matchups if you owned him. Unfortunately the opposite is true, too. There were six games last year where he had less than 60 yards rushing and five games where he went over 100. It's just too unpredictable for me.
Changes - New coaches, new staff, new scheme. Plus, he lost one of his best offensive linemen in Andy Levitre (who was basically not replaced). I don't have any faith in Doug Marrone or the offensive coordinator he brought with him from Syracuse. Prove me wrong, guys.
Track Record - Spiller wasn't nearly as good in his first two years as he was in his third. Was it a breakout season with more to come, or just a career season?
Was it really a breakout anyway? - Is 1,244 yards and six touchdowns an enormous breakout season anyway? It's a very strong season, no doubt. But if that is the ceiling, wouldn't you rather have Ray Rice, Alfred Morris, or LeSean McCoy? All three of those guys are being drafted right after Spiller. I'll take any of them since those guys have (demonstrably) a much higher ceiling and play on teams with better offenses around them.
Spiller is a dynamic weapon. He'll get tons of opportunity as the centerpiece of the new Bills offense. That's great, and I think he will do well. I just see more red flags than green flags when trying to make a first round decision this year.
Getting Started with Fantasy Football
I have just published my first book, and I wanted you all to know about it first. Please give the cover picture or the shopping cart link a click, and check it out! It's only $2.99... I tried to price it low enough to make it an easy purchase for you. Despite the low price it is packed with easy-to-use tactics and all kinds of information uncovered for you for the first time. It's designed to take you from whatever level you are at today and propel you beyond the average fantasy football player in just one day. (Today!)
If you do buy the book, would you please give me an honest review? And if you like it, would you consider writing a sentence that I can use for marketing? (I won't use your name, don't worry!)
Thank you, Brainiacs! Thank you for making all of this possible... I will continue to work hard for you, delivering unique resources you can't find anywhere else!
If you do buy the book, would you please give me an honest review? And if you like it, would you consider writing a sentence that I can use for marketing? (I won't use your name, don't worry!)
Thank you, Brainiacs! Thank you for making all of this possible... I will continue to work hard for you, delivering unique resources you can't find anywhere else!
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| Click to view pricing before purchase. |
Aaron Hernandez: Released! Now what?
Yesterday we talked about the strategy associated with approaching the risk of both Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. With Hernandez specifically, we said that if the competitors in your league are staying away you may have a great risk/reward type of gamble around the ninth round of your draft.
That is, if there is a decent chance he'll play. But, what if you know he'll be out for an extended period? How does that change the landscape in New England?
EDIT: Breaking news, Brainiacs - Hernandez has been released by the Patriots. So, the information below may be of increased interest to you now. Who replaces Hernandez in an already depleted Pats offense??
For one, it amps up the 'reward' part of the equation for Gronk. He is a monster to begin with, but if Hernandez is missing there is just a massive void to fill.
But, let's look deeper. Hernandez tends to line up wide more often than a standard tight end. Who is there on the roster that can be a big body either at tight end or split out wide? Well, not much to write home about... but there are a few interesting names.
Michael Jenkins is on the roster right now and while he has had a career of failing to live up to expectations, he is experienced and he is big. He's listed at 6'4" and 214 pounds. While not as thick as Hernandez he is a little taller and could fill a similar role as a split end. It's not perfect, but if I were in a very deep league I would take a look. His ceiling is about 55 receptions for 700 yards and five touchdowns. He is likely to get about two thirds of those numbers, so buyer beware. That said, he's never played with a quarterback like Tom Brady before so it is within the realm of possibility that he bangs against those ceiling numbers and threatens to go past them. Maybe he overcomes his career of under-performing and finally starts to put it all together.
Let's have a look at some of the other tight ends, because there are seven (7!) of them on the current roster... including a couple of familiar names. Well, familiar names if you have been a serious fantasy player for a few years. (And I do mean serious.)
You may remember Michael Hoomanawanui (wow, I actually spelled that without looking) from his brief flashes of brilliance in St. Louis. He had a pre-season game in 2010 as a rookie where he caught four passes for 53 yards and two touchdowns. Big and fast for his size, Hoomanawanui has good hands and a nose for the endzone. He has a year in the New England offense under his belt and seems to be healthy. Health issues have derailed him early in his career, so he could be primed to make some noise in his fourth year. It's a serious longshot, but if Hernandez is out maybe they give Hoomanawanui a shot.
Okay, one more name to note: Daniel Fells. He's about as big as Hoomanawanui but not nearly the athlete, plus at the age of 30 we pretty much know what to expect from Fells. He doesn't have the upside of Hoomanawanui, but he also doesn't have the downside. In a full-time role, Fells would likely go for about 35 receptions for 350 yards and maybe three touchdowns. Maybe the Tom Brady factor improves those numbers a bit, but Fells isn't going to excite anyone. Nevertheless, if Hernandez and Gronk are both out you could see Fells getting snaps and producing a solid yet unimpressive line. If that is the case and you are scraping the bottom of the barrel, he'd get you a few points. A predictable three-ish points with a chance at a TD is better than risking a zero.
From a fantasy perspective, we do hope we see a lot Hernandez and Gronkowski this year. But, if we don't you could see Jenkins get some additional looks on the outside and one of Hoomanawanui or Fells seeing decent playing time at tight end. They are longshot upside plays for deep leagues, but good names to know.
That is, if there is a decent chance he'll play. But, what if you know he'll be out for an extended period? How does that change the landscape in New England?
EDIT: Breaking news, Brainiacs - Hernandez has been released by the Patriots. So, the information below may be of increased interest to you now. Who replaces Hernandez in an already depleted Pats offense??
For one, it amps up the 'reward' part of the equation for Gronk. He is a monster to begin with, but if Hernandez is missing there is just a massive void to fill.
But, let's look deeper. Hernandez tends to line up wide more often than a standard tight end. Who is there on the roster that can be a big body either at tight end or split out wide? Well, not much to write home about... but there are a few interesting names.
Michael Jenkins is on the roster right now and while he has had a career of failing to live up to expectations, he is experienced and he is big. He's listed at 6'4" and 214 pounds. While not as thick as Hernandez he is a little taller and could fill a similar role as a split end. It's not perfect, but if I were in a very deep league I would take a look. His ceiling is about 55 receptions for 700 yards and five touchdowns. He is likely to get about two thirds of those numbers, so buyer beware. That said, he's never played with a quarterback like Tom Brady before so it is within the realm of possibility that he bangs against those ceiling numbers and threatens to go past them. Maybe he overcomes his career of under-performing and finally starts to put it all together.
Let's have a look at some of the other tight ends, because there are seven (7!) of them on the current roster... including a couple of familiar names. Well, familiar names if you have been a serious fantasy player for a few years. (And I do mean serious.)
You may remember Michael Hoomanawanui (wow, I actually spelled that without looking) from his brief flashes of brilliance in St. Louis. He had a pre-season game in 2010 as a rookie where he caught four passes for 53 yards and two touchdowns. Big and fast for his size, Hoomanawanui has good hands and a nose for the endzone. He has a year in the New England offense under his belt and seems to be healthy. Health issues have derailed him early in his career, so he could be primed to make some noise in his fourth year. It's a serious longshot, but if Hernandez is out maybe they give Hoomanawanui a shot.
Okay, one more name to note: Daniel Fells. He's about as big as Hoomanawanui but not nearly the athlete, plus at the age of 30 we pretty much know what to expect from Fells. He doesn't have the upside of Hoomanawanui, but he also doesn't have the downside. In a full-time role, Fells would likely go for about 35 receptions for 350 yards and maybe three touchdowns. Maybe the Tom Brady factor improves those numbers a bit, but Fells isn't going to excite anyone. Nevertheless, if Hernandez and Gronk are both out you could see Fells getting snaps and producing a solid yet unimpressive line. If that is the case and you are scraping the bottom of the barrel, he'd get you a few points. A predictable three-ish points with a chance at a TD is better than risking a zero.
From a fantasy perspective, we do hope we see a lot Hernandez and Gronkowski this year. But, if we don't you could see Jenkins get some additional looks on the outside and one of Hoomanawanui or Fells seeing decent playing time at tight end. They are longshot upside plays for deep leagues, but good names to know.
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski
What to do, what to do? It's hard to decipher the situation in the New England offense this year and how we should approach it from a fantasy football perspective. I have some thoughts and strategic ways to approach the situation, so thank you for joining me here at the Brain.
I will make zero editorial comment on the current situation with Aaron Hernandez, but it is safe to say there is a lot going on. The bottom line is that he might miss time this year. He may also be distracted from his job while he is working. Possibly both. For fantasy he's just probably not someone you can trust since he could be in and out of the lineup. These factors are killing his fantasy value on draft day.
So much so that there will be leagues where no one wants to gamble on Hernandez at all. If that happens in your league, you could have yourself a buying opportunity.
Let's delve into the strategy. For Hernandez or any other player with high-profile issues there is some percentage of fantasy players who have made up their mind to just stay away. They aren't going to take the guy no matter what. Maybe it's 30%. Maybe 80%. Whatever it is, there is a chance that all of the other owners in your league are in that percentage. In other words, if half of all fantasy football managers are staying away from a particular player that does not mean that exactly six guys in a twelve team league are out on that player. In one specific league it could be any number, maybe everyone.
So, if Hernandez is being valued as a seventh rounder (for example) due to his issues maybe that is where he is drafted. Perhaps someone in your league is a believer and takes him in the sixth round. But, what if he doesn't go in the eighth or even the ninth round? When the ninth round rolls around you've got a guy sitting there with big risk but huge upside. I mean, if he plays a significant part of the season he could be Tom Brady's top target, which is to say that he'll have tons of value.
The play here goes back to my '20/20 Vision' plan that I teach in "The Program." I like to see 60% (three out of every five) of your draft picks to be solid, steady players and 20% (one of every five) of your draft picks as upside "sleeper" picks. The remaining 20%? Those guys should be the boom or bust types that can win a league for you. Aaron Hernandez as late as the eighth or ninth round qualifies. In a normal draft you want to try to get three of those guys throughout your picks, and Hernandez is a candidate.
And, so is Rob Gronkowski. We all saw the damage he could do with his historic season in 2011. His numbers in 2012 look like a significant reduction from the year before, but if you examine his per-game numbers they aren't far off of 2011 at all.
Check it out:
Sure, five surgeries in just the past year are cause for big concern. Sure, he'll start the pre-season on the PUP list. Okay, fine. He's got some risk, but last year he was going in the first round of fantasy drafts all over the place due to 5.6 receptions for 83 yards and 1.1 TD's per game. As banged up as he was last year he still got 5 receptions for 72 yards and 1.0 TD's per game.
Plus, the dude's still only 24 years old. He might be getting better.
To put a finer point on it he scored about 20 points a week in PPR two years ago and still got you 18 points per week last year. In standard leagues it was more like 15 points in 2011 and 13 last year. So, can he do that again this year? Absolutely.
And what if I told you his current ADP is in the fifth round? Yes, please.
The great thing about Gronk is that his ADP (average draft position) probably won't improve, which means his value should remain. There won't be a lot of news about him since he'll be on the pre-season PUP list and other players might actually pass him on the ADP list.
Even if he only plays 12 games this year, I'll take his 18 points per game in those and supplement with a Kyle Rudolph type of guy for the rest of the season. Sounds like a solid strategy to me.
Okay, one last thought about the New England tight ends. There are a lack of weapons for Tom Brady these days which means he may be forced to go to the tight ends. Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Danny Woodhead left in free agency and have basically been replaced by Danny Amendola. You'll also see more of Julian Edelman and Shane Vereen, but those guys were there last year.
You have got to conclude that the receiving situation is greatly downgraded in New England. Look, Brady is a magnificent quarterback so he might be able to make a lot of chicken salad this year but the fact is that he's going to have to pull a lot of rabbits out of his hat to do so.
The tight ends will be leaned upon a lot in 2013. When they are in uniform they will score buckets of fantasy points, so we hope they suit up more often than not. There is a lot of profit potential within the uncertainty that these two guys represent.
I will make zero editorial comment on the current situation with Aaron Hernandez, but it is safe to say there is a lot going on. The bottom line is that he might miss time this year. He may also be distracted from his job while he is working. Possibly both. For fantasy he's just probably not someone you can trust since he could be in and out of the lineup. These factors are killing his fantasy value on draft day.
So much so that there will be leagues where no one wants to gamble on Hernandez at all. If that happens in your league, you could have yourself a buying opportunity.
Let's delve into the strategy. For Hernandez or any other player with high-profile issues there is some percentage of fantasy players who have made up their mind to just stay away. They aren't going to take the guy no matter what. Maybe it's 30%. Maybe 80%. Whatever it is, there is a chance that all of the other owners in your league are in that percentage. In other words, if half of all fantasy football managers are staying away from a particular player that does not mean that exactly six guys in a twelve team league are out on that player. In one specific league it could be any number, maybe everyone.
So, if Hernandez is being valued as a seventh rounder (for example) due to his issues maybe that is where he is drafted. Perhaps someone in your league is a believer and takes him in the sixth round. But, what if he doesn't go in the eighth or even the ninth round? When the ninth round rolls around you've got a guy sitting there with big risk but huge upside. I mean, if he plays a significant part of the season he could be Tom Brady's top target, which is to say that he'll have tons of value.
The play here goes back to my '20/20 Vision' plan that I teach in "The Program." I like to see 60% (three out of every five) of your draft picks to be solid, steady players and 20% (one of every five) of your draft picks as upside "sleeper" picks. The remaining 20%? Those guys should be the boom or bust types that can win a league for you. Aaron Hernandez as late as the eighth or ninth round qualifies. In a normal draft you want to try to get three of those guys throughout your picks, and Hernandez is a candidate.
And, so is Rob Gronkowski. We all saw the damage he could do with his historic season in 2011. His numbers in 2012 look like a significant reduction from the year before, but if you examine his per-game numbers they aren't far off of 2011 at all.
Check it out:
- 2011 : 16 games - 90 receptions (5.6/game) - 1,327 yards (83/game) - 17 TD (1.1/game)
- 2012 : 11 games - 55 receptions (5.0/game) - 790 yards (72/game) - 11 TD (1.0/game)
Sure, five surgeries in just the past year are cause for big concern. Sure, he'll start the pre-season on the PUP list. Okay, fine. He's got some risk, but last year he was going in the first round of fantasy drafts all over the place due to 5.6 receptions for 83 yards and 1.1 TD's per game. As banged up as he was last year he still got 5 receptions for 72 yards and 1.0 TD's per game.
Plus, the dude's still only 24 years old. He might be getting better.
To put a finer point on it he scored about 20 points a week in PPR two years ago and still got you 18 points per week last year. In standard leagues it was more like 15 points in 2011 and 13 last year. So, can he do that again this year? Absolutely.
And what if I told you his current ADP is in the fifth round? Yes, please.
The great thing about Gronk is that his ADP (average draft position) probably won't improve, which means his value should remain. There won't be a lot of news about him since he'll be on the pre-season PUP list and other players might actually pass him on the ADP list.
Even if he only plays 12 games this year, I'll take his 18 points per game in those and supplement with a Kyle Rudolph type of guy for the rest of the season. Sounds like a solid strategy to me.
Okay, one last thought about the New England tight ends. There are a lack of weapons for Tom Brady these days which means he may be forced to go to the tight ends. Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Danny Woodhead left in free agency and have basically been replaced by Danny Amendola. You'll also see more of Julian Edelman and Shane Vereen, but those guys were there last year.
You have got to conclude that the receiving situation is greatly downgraded in New England. Look, Brady is a magnificent quarterback so he might be able to make a lot of chicken salad this year but the fact is that he's going to have to pull a lot of rabbits out of his hat to do so.
The tight ends will be leaned upon a lot in 2013. When they are in uniform they will score buckets of fantasy points, so we hope they suit up more often than not. There is a lot of profit potential within the uncertainty that these two guys represent.
Thursday, June 20, 2013
Fantasy Football: Quarterback Position
There is a lot of sentiment about the depth at quarterback this year, and I agree. However, as deep as it is it is also a minefield.
To wit, after the top two there are red flags all over the place. There are very few "clean" quarterbacks even though there are a lot of really strong options. In fact, you can list the top 25 guys and make a case that any of them could be an average fantasy quarterback for you.
Let's take a look at what I'm talking about and we'll try to delve into some strategy along the way:
1. Aaron Rodgers - The top guy. No issues here.
2. Drew Brees - Some concern about the WR corps, but really no issues here either.
Okay, number three? Man, I don't know. Manning, Brady, Newton... ugh. Red flags galore. Alright here we go:
3. Peyton Manning - My big concerns with Manning include his age, health, and playing outdoors in snow and thin air. If he can stay healthy he could really do some damage with the weapons he has.
4. Cam Newton - New offensive coordinator and less of a zone read offense means that he will be asked to work more from the pocket and run less. Good for his health, but is it good for fantasy points?
5. Tom Brady - He's starting to get up in years, but forget about that... My concern is his weapons. Welker is gone and Amendola isn't much of a replacement. Are Gronk and Hernandez out too? Lloyd is gone, also. Who is Brady throwing to? Shane Vereen?
6. Matthew Stafford - Stafford has led the league in pass attempts for two years in a row. That may go down this year, but I believe his TD's will go up. They went from 41 down to 20 last year, so I'll take the average this year - 30. Should be a nice value.
7. Matt Ryan - The issue here is that he cooled off late last year. He might also be a nice value because of it. He's gotten better for four years in a row. The sneaky thing with Ryan is that Steven Jackson is standing behind him now and Jackson can really, really catch a pass. Great weapons for Ryan.
8. Andrew Luck - Nice value, too. There seems to be a nice pocket here with Stafford, Ryan, and Luck. I'd take any of them at their ADP over Brady, Newton, or Manning at theirs. He is a second year guy, so there may be a sophomore slump... but there isn't really an indication of that. Is TY Hilton for real? Does Reggie Wayne have another big year in him?
9. Robert Griffin III - Can he stay healthy? Is he healthy now?
10. Colin Kaepernick - Can he stay healthy? Are they going to try to keep him in the pocket more this year? Did he catch lightning in a bottle last year or is this legit?
11. Tony Romo - We're talking about Romo way down at #11? He'll put up numbers for you, folks. He might be an over-rated real life QB, but in fantasy he's under-rated.
12. Russell Wilson - Small and still unproven, in my mind. Those are the red flags, but he sure looked good when he became the starter last year didn't he?
At this point it gets really interesting... We've yet to mention a lot of familiar names: Rivers, Roethlisberger, Cutler, Vick, Eli, Schaub, Flacco, and Palmer. Those guys are #13 through #20. Think about that for a moment. If you are in a 10-team league you'll get one of those guys as a backup even if you wait forever.
The next few have upside too: Dalton, Alex Smith, Freeman, Bradford, and Weeden. Now make no mistake, those guys have big flaws. However, they also have significant upside and they are all ranked in the 20's.
Dalton has A.J. Green. 'Nuff said.
Smith was one of the leaders in quarterback rating when he was replaced last year. Now, he's got Andy Reid, Dwayne Bowe, and Jamaal Charles.
Freeman equals upside plus risk. The range of possibilities with this guy is wider than anyone in the league. He could be anywhere from the sixth-ranked fantasy quarterback all the way down to #30. He does have Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin. Defenses will be stacking the box to stop Martin. Plus, Freeman can run when he has to.
Bradford is a former #1 overall draft pick and he's got new weapons. We'll see. Big risk, but big upside.
Weeden? Okay, hear me out. Norv Turner is his offensive coordinator now and he's a great one. Weeden has had a full off-season, he's not a rookie anymore, and the one strength he has (the power arm) matches up perfectly to what the Norv-fense requires. If you blend last year's rookie performance with one or two deep balls per game could you see an extra 80 yards per game and another TD? Could be.
So, we just outlined depth at quarterback through 25 guys. That is sick depth, which is great. But listen, after Rodgers and Brees it gets weird. I have long been a proponent of the Back-to-Back Quarterback strategy where you select QB's in both round seven and eight. If you did that, you might end up with Luck and Romo. Or maybe Stafford and Kaepernick. Perhaps Ryan and Griffin?
In my mind that is way better than taking Brees in the top 15 picks and then grabbing a Joe Flacco late. I'd rather play the matchups with my QB's, because when you do that you maximize value. Even better though, are all of the RB's and WR's you scoop up with your first six picks. Plus, you've got a built-in bye week replacement. Besides, you may hit a home run with one of the two guys you take. Maybe Matthew Stafford give you 2011 stats? Maybe Kaepernick is for real? Could Luck make an MVP run? Maybe.
I'll take my chances with two of those guys instead of Newton, Manning, and Brady.
To wit, after the top two there are red flags all over the place. There are very few "clean" quarterbacks even though there are a lot of really strong options. In fact, you can list the top 25 guys and make a case that any of them could be an average fantasy quarterback for you.
Let's take a look at what I'm talking about and we'll try to delve into some strategy along the way:
1. Aaron Rodgers - The top guy. No issues here.
2. Drew Brees - Some concern about the WR corps, but really no issues here either.
Okay, number three? Man, I don't know. Manning, Brady, Newton... ugh. Red flags galore. Alright here we go:
3. Peyton Manning - My big concerns with Manning include his age, health, and playing outdoors in snow and thin air. If he can stay healthy he could really do some damage with the weapons he has.
4. Cam Newton - New offensive coordinator and less of a zone read offense means that he will be asked to work more from the pocket and run less. Good for his health, but is it good for fantasy points?
5. Tom Brady - He's starting to get up in years, but forget about that... My concern is his weapons. Welker is gone and Amendola isn't much of a replacement. Are Gronk and Hernandez out too? Lloyd is gone, also. Who is Brady throwing to? Shane Vereen?
6. Matthew Stafford - Stafford has led the league in pass attempts for two years in a row. That may go down this year, but I believe his TD's will go up. They went from 41 down to 20 last year, so I'll take the average this year - 30. Should be a nice value.
7. Matt Ryan - The issue here is that he cooled off late last year. He might also be a nice value because of it. He's gotten better for four years in a row. The sneaky thing with Ryan is that Steven Jackson is standing behind him now and Jackson can really, really catch a pass. Great weapons for Ryan.
8. Andrew Luck - Nice value, too. There seems to be a nice pocket here with Stafford, Ryan, and Luck. I'd take any of them at their ADP over Brady, Newton, or Manning at theirs. He is a second year guy, so there may be a sophomore slump... but there isn't really an indication of that. Is TY Hilton for real? Does Reggie Wayne have another big year in him?
9. Robert Griffin III - Can he stay healthy? Is he healthy now?
10. Colin Kaepernick - Can he stay healthy? Are they going to try to keep him in the pocket more this year? Did he catch lightning in a bottle last year or is this legit?
11. Tony Romo - We're talking about Romo way down at #11? He'll put up numbers for you, folks. He might be an over-rated real life QB, but in fantasy he's under-rated.
12. Russell Wilson - Small and still unproven, in my mind. Those are the red flags, but he sure looked good when he became the starter last year didn't he?
At this point it gets really interesting... We've yet to mention a lot of familiar names: Rivers, Roethlisberger, Cutler, Vick, Eli, Schaub, Flacco, and Palmer. Those guys are #13 through #20. Think about that for a moment. If you are in a 10-team league you'll get one of those guys as a backup even if you wait forever.
The next few have upside too: Dalton, Alex Smith, Freeman, Bradford, and Weeden. Now make no mistake, those guys have big flaws. However, they also have significant upside and they are all ranked in the 20's.
Dalton has A.J. Green. 'Nuff said.
Smith was one of the leaders in quarterback rating when he was replaced last year. Now, he's got Andy Reid, Dwayne Bowe, and Jamaal Charles.
Freeman equals upside plus risk. The range of possibilities with this guy is wider than anyone in the league. He could be anywhere from the sixth-ranked fantasy quarterback all the way down to #30. He does have Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin. Defenses will be stacking the box to stop Martin. Plus, Freeman can run when he has to.
Bradford is a former #1 overall draft pick and he's got new weapons. We'll see. Big risk, but big upside.
Weeden? Okay, hear me out. Norv Turner is his offensive coordinator now and he's a great one. Weeden has had a full off-season, he's not a rookie anymore, and the one strength he has (the power arm) matches up perfectly to what the Norv-fense requires. If you blend last year's rookie performance with one or two deep balls per game could you see an extra 80 yards per game and another TD? Could be.
So, we just outlined depth at quarterback through 25 guys. That is sick depth, which is great. But listen, after Rodgers and Brees it gets weird. I have long been a proponent of the Back-to-Back Quarterback strategy where you select QB's in both round seven and eight. If you did that, you might end up with Luck and Romo. Or maybe Stafford and Kaepernick. Perhaps Ryan and Griffin?
In my mind that is way better than taking Brees in the top 15 picks and then grabbing a Joe Flacco late. I'd rather play the matchups with my QB's, because when you do that you maximize value. Even better though, are all of the RB's and WR's you scoop up with your first six picks. Plus, you've got a built-in bye week replacement. Besides, you may hit a home run with one of the two guys you take. Maybe Matthew Stafford give you 2011 stats? Maybe Kaepernick is for real? Could Luck make an MVP run? Maybe.
I'll take my chances with two of those guys instead of Newton, Manning, and Brady.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
The New Book!
This is what they call in the industry, "a soft launch." I wanted you guys to see it first. If you do want to buy it, it's only $3.49... and as a part of the soft launch you can use discount code "Brainiac42" to get 42% off. That makes it two bucks.
One thing, though... If you use the discount, would you be willing to give me an honest review? And if you like it, maybe one sentence that I can use for marketing purposes. I'd really like for this thing to be a big hit because the content is pretty strong, yet easy to consume and use.
And, by the way... It's called "Getting Started with Fantasy Football" but there has got to be something in there for everyone. For two bucks you can't go wrong. :)
Thanks, folks. I love the Brainiac community and I'm looking forward to delivering more resources for you in the future.
Click below if you want to check it out:
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| Click to review before purchase. |
Friday, April 26, 2013
NFL Draft: DeAndre Hopkins
They played Sweet Caroline at the draft to honor the strength of the people of Boston last night. The good people of New York gave it all they had in singing the traditional 7th inning stretch song of the Red Sox. Stand up guys, those New Yorkers. But, they totally messed up the cadence on "So good, so good, so good"... but I can't hold it against them. Besides, I'd like to see the people of Boston try to do the YMCA. They'd probably have the "C" going the wrong way.
Anyway, back to the draft. My example yesterday with Cordarrelle Patterson didn't exactly come to pass, but exactly the concept I was illustrating did. When the Texans selected DeAndre Hopkins at #27 they seem to have finally populated the other side of the field to give their quality quarterback another top-flight option and a buddy to take the pressure off of their super-stud #1 WR.
I don't feel quite as good about Hopkins in Houston as I would have with Patterson in Cincinnati, but it'll do. Hopkins is the instant starter, he won't see any doubles, and he's got a great QB. Add to that a really stellar running game and we should see Hopkins breaking open all year. I really like his sleeper potential in 2013.
There were a few more skill position players taken in the first round last night, but not too many more. Tavon Austin went early and Tyler Eifert was the only tight end taken, as we predicted. And, also as predicted there weren't any running backs drafted. We had Hopkins added to the mix as well as Patterson, so three wide receivers. And, only one quarterback selected with EJ Manuel going to Buffalo.
Truly, that's not too much to digest as far as draftable players taken in the first round of the draft. We saw some conspicuous offensive lineman picks and some potential difference makers on defense, though. There are some puzzle pieces to sort through there for sure.
But, regarding the draftable guys, I'm of the unsurprising belief that Manuel is not a legit fantasy QB for 2013. I would also stay away from Patterson. Eifert and Hopkins are purely late round guys, but they both have solid sleeper upside.
Austin is a great case study, though. We could literally see anything from him this year... there are tons of pros and also lots of cons with him. A lot of what we can project with Austin rests on the shoulders of Sam Bradford, so my opinion is that the value you place on Austin should be directly proportional to the trust you have in Bradford. Do you think that Bradford is a legit QB1 who deserved to be taken #1 overall but just has lacked the health and weapons and coaching to shine? Or, do you believe that Bradford has shown his true colors and is just too inconsistent and injury prone to really perform at a high level? In my opinion, your projection for Austin should follow your level of belief in Bradford.
Have fun with day two of the NFL selection meeting, Brainiacs. I can't wait!
Anyway, back to the draft. My example yesterday with Cordarrelle Patterson didn't exactly come to pass, but exactly the concept I was illustrating did. When the Texans selected DeAndre Hopkins at #27 they seem to have finally populated the other side of the field to give their quality quarterback another top-flight option and a buddy to take the pressure off of their super-stud #1 WR.
I don't feel quite as good about Hopkins in Houston as I would have with Patterson in Cincinnati, but it'll do. Hopkins is the instant starter, he won't see any doubles, and he's got a great QB. Add to that a really stellar running game and we should see Hopkins breaking open all year. I really like his sleeper potential in 2013.
There were a few more skill position players taken in the first round last night, but not too many more. Tavon Austin went early and Tyler Eifert was the only tight end taken, as we predicted. And, also as predicted there weren't any running backs drafted. We had Hopkins added to the mix as well as Patterson, so three wide receivers. And, only one quarterback selected with EJ Manuel going to Buffalo.
Truly, that's not too much to digest as far as draftable players taken in the first round of the draft. We saw some conspicuous offensive lineman picks and some potential difference makers on defense, though. There are some puzzle pieces to sort through there for sure.
But, regarding the draftable guys, I'm of the unsurprising belief that Manuel is not a legit fantasy QB for 2013. I would also stay away from Patterson. Eifert and Hopkins are purely late round guys, but they both have solid sleeper upside.
Austin is a great case study, though. We could literally see anything from him this year... there are tons of pros and also lots of cons with him. A lot of what we can project with Austin rests on the shoulders of Sam Bradford, so my opinion is that the value you place on Austin should be directly proportional to the trust you have in Bradford. Do you think that Bradford is a legit QB1 who deserved to be taken #1 overall but just has lacked the health and weapons and coaching to shine? Or, do you believe that Bradford has shown his true colors and is just too inconsistent and injury prone to really perform at a high level? In my opinion, your projection for Austin should follow your level of belief in Bradford.
Have fun with day two of the NFL selection meeting, Brainiacs. I can't wait!
Thursday, April 25, 2013
NFL Draft: Looking for Fantasy Impact
Tonight is the first day of the NFL Draft, which means two things:
The draft is the third piece to the off-season trifecta: Free Agency, Coaching Changes, and the Draft. If you pay close attention to these three elements and
- I will be reduced to a giggling child for the next three days.
- We have a big opportunity for fantasy football analysis.
The draft is the third piece to the off-season trifecta: Free Agency, Coaching Changes, and the Draft. If you pay close attention to these three elements and
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