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Friday, March 22, 2013

Fantasy Pros: Overvalued Players

Hi Brainiacs!  This week I was honored to be included once again in a feature at FantasyPros.com.  This one is the flip side of last week's, now discussing this year's overvalued players.

I was asked to write about Ryan Howard, and I was thrilled to be able to contribute my thoughts.  It would appear that I am a lot lower on Howard than just about anyone else, but there are good reasons.  There is some hope that at the age of 33 he'll start hitting again like he did a few years ago, but the fact is that his floor (worst case scenario) is incredibly low. 

Howard was limited to just 260 AB's last year due to an achilles injury and he was only able to hit .219 with 28 runs scored.  This performance was after already seeing his BA dip to .253 when he was still healthy in 2011.  But it's not just his BA that is suffering, but also his runs scored.  Footspeed affects both, and you can't tell me that the achilles injury didn't damage his wheels.  This is a guy who has averaged 98 runs per season over his career and last year was only on pace for about 60 or so.  The fact is that he will absolutely kill you in two categories, even if his home runs and RBI bounce back this year.  And, frankly, I'm willing to bet that Mark Reynolds beats him in both of those categories.  Heck, maybe all five.

My projection for Howard is a .239 BA, 31 HR, 91 RBI, 68 R, and 0 SB.  That is nowhere near 8th round production, but that is where you'd have to draft him.  No thanks, folks.

Here's the link if you want to check out all of the experts' blurbs: http://www.fantasypros.com/2013/03/overvalued-players/