Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge: AL-Only Strategy

There was once this guy who asked a girl to the prom and she said yes. He was excited but knew he needed to go and get a tux, reserve a limo, and get a corsage.  So, he went to the tux place and the line was out the door!  He waited and waited, but finally got the tuxedo.  At the limo place, same thing!  Line out the door and down the street, but he reserved a limo for the big dance.  When he got to the flower shop, wouldn't you know it... super long line.  But the girl was worth it, so he stayed in the line and got the corsage.

The night of the prom he rolled up in the limo and they went to the dance.  His date said she was thirsty and he said he would get her something to drink...

he walked to the table...

and...

...there was no punch line.

But seriously folks, yesterday was the annual FSIC expert league.  It is one of the oldest and most respected expert leagues around, even though the famous ones like Tout Wars and LABR have surpassed it in notoriety by quite a margin.  The one I am in is the AL-Only league and like any "only" league it requires a lot of strategy and careful consideration, especially in the latter rounds.

Think about it, 10 teams and 28 rounds is 280 players.  There are 15 American League teams so we're drafting about 19 players per team on average...  Most teams have a 7-man pen and a 4-man bench, so if you remove the closer that leaves you with around 10 guys per team without regular playing time.  Since teams have a 25-man roster, that leaves you with about 15 guys per team with any kind or regular playing time, and that includes #5 starters, platoon situations, part-time DH's, and shaky closer candidates.  It's a minefield out there, and every team is going to have some seriously sketchy draft picks.

This league only has one catcher, but it does have middle infielders and corners ("MI" and "CI") plus five outfielders.  So, any given week this league will start 10 catchers out of the 15 available which is not too bad..  Plus approximately 15 each at 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B of the 15 available.  Pretty much all of them.  And in the outfield you'll need 50 each week when there are only 45 positions in the league before you even consider platoon situations.  The one thing that eases this a bit are the DH's which will often play a position as well like OF or 1B, but still there is a Utility position in this league so even those 15 AL DH's will dry up fast.

Another strategic consideration is at closer where there are less than 15 good ones out there and in this league you're going to want to have two to get an edge if possible.  My prediction was that the few elite options like Greg Holland would fly off of the board.  And, if every team in this league takes six starters, well that's four out of every five available and full rotations aren't even set yet.  Guys like Kendall Graveman are still battling for a spot.

So, my strategy involved a few things:

1. Prioritize OF.  Get three or four relatively quickly.
2. Don't worry so much about catcher unless you can get a great value.
3. Pick up value throughout. See who is slipping and scoop them up because in these expert leagues (all leagues, really) people have guys they like and will tend to reach a bit in the middle rounds to get their guys.
4. Get solid starters in their prime, in good ballparks, at good value.
5. Try to get good value on two of the lower-rated closers, plus a setup guy or two.
6. Prioritize MI over CI.
7. Always try to get the guy with playing time since they are at a premium.

So, how'd it go?  (Update Note from Dave:  I just calculated the total value amassed on these picks according to auction value on FantasyPros.com and the top 22 players equal $315 in projected value.  That's pretty awesome, iidssm.  I guess my next comment was accurate:)  I did pretty well on the value piece, with players slipping to me all over.  However, I did get sniped quite a bit as per usual in these snake drafts.  I felt like the guy waiting in all of the lines.

I had the #8 pick, so I also had #13.  Of course I'd rather get Trout at #1, but by my estimation there are only about 15 elite studs in the AL so I would get two while the top five teams would only get one uber-stud.

At #8 I was choosing between Adam Jones, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson.  I figured the two I didn't take would go before #13 and I might end up with David Price there.  I was prioritizing OF, so I went with Jones.  Crazy thing, at #13 Donaldson and E5 were both still there.  No punch line.

I took Donaldson thinking that 1B would be slightly easier to fill, but I honestly started to look at Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez there, knowing they wouldn't come back to me at #28.  I hoped that Chris Davis would make it.  Nope.  Long lines for all three, with Davis going #26. (Curses!)

Actually, at this point in the draft you could already feel the thinness of the AL-Only format... Since my last pick Prince Fielder, Brian Dozier, David Ortiz, Evan Longoria, J.D. Martinez, and Yoenis Cespedes were all taken.  As late 2nd's and early 3rd's those picks seem awfully rich, but ya gotta do what ya gotta do.  I was pleasantly surprised to still see Carlos Santana for me at #28.  In CBS leagues he qualifies all over the place: C, 1B, 3B, and CI.  He had a slow start last year bouncing around, but as soon as he settled into the 1B gig his production was strong the rest of the way.

Another value at pick #33 was Albert Pujols.  It's more than reminiscing about all of the good times we used to have.  Phat Albert was quietly really quite good last year.  Even though he is 35 now and gets more than his share of nagging injuries, his pure skill level is as high as anyone in baseball.  I believe that in the 4th round I'm paying at or near his floor.

The funny thing at this point was that I was adhering to some of my strategy at the expense of other parts.  I took an OF in the 1st round but no more in the next three picks and I'm clearly loaded at CI with zero MI's.  Plus no pitching yet.  I am accumulating value, though... and Santana can be my catcher with Donaldson at 3B and Pujols at 1B.

There were 14 picks before I would select again, with some interesting names. Four closers, four starters, Danny Santana, Kole Calhoun,  Brandon Moss... plus a couple I like there in Kyle Seager and Pablo Sandoval.  At #48 I was in the market for my second OF and took Alex Gordon, which I feel like was good value again.  At this pick I was considering Carlos Carrasco and hoped he would slip to #53.

No such luck.  I took Sonny Gray.  Holding my breath there, but the pitching was starting to go.

It was thinning out fast...  I took Mookie Betts as a 2B, hoping he has a regular job and knowing I can use him in the OF if I get another 2B later.  Then Anibal Sanchez, who was good value at #73.  The next two picks would be similar with Shin-Soo Choo (more value, I hope) and Chris Archer.

So, ten rounds in now and I'm not really feeling all that great even though I do have three or four of my outfielders, three starters (even though they aren't my favorites), and I'm all stocked up at corner infield, plus a top catching option if needed as such.

At this point I'm still looking for value but I need middle infielders desperately as well as saves.  Otherwise, not too bad.

In round 11 I was hoping for Xander Bogaerts, but he went one pick before me.  I looked at my sheet and the best value was Brian McCann.  I was surprised he lasted that long and figured everyone was de-valuing catchers in this league.  Well, I can play Santana in five different slots and it is a luxury to carry two good catchers so I took McCann.

Round 12 brought Neftali Feliz.  I don't love him, but he seems to be healthy now and he also seems to have the job.  With all of the closers that went off in the 4th and 5th rounds this seemed like good value.

I followed up this one with Joakim Soria in the 13th, who I expect to get the job any day now.

The 14th round brought a pretty steady contributor in steals with a solid BA in Rajai Davis.  OF #4 (or #5), check!  I felt good about that pick at this point.

Looking at the board there had been eight shortstops taken so far, so I felt like it was between me and one other player for J.J. Hardy and even if he was gone I could deal with Brad Miller.  Well, in the next 14 picks they both went.  Ugh.  Worst pick of the draft for me was Josh Rutledge as my SS.  In round 15.  It was a desperation pick even though he does have upside.  These lines are long for middle infielders.

It was really getting thin at this point, and my next three were Jesse Hahn (upside, good park factor), C.J. Cron (crushing it, good AB's with Hamilton out), and Omar Infante (if he hits I can bump Betts to the OF).

Wade Davis in the 19th and Danny Farquhar in the 20th will be solid contributors for me and might vulture some wins and saves while striking out more than their share per IP.

In the 21st round I felt like I still needed another SP but I was eyeing another MI.  Jonathan Schoop was taken so I queued up Didi Gregorius.  He went the pick before me.  Okay, outfielder?  No, Seth Smith and Matt Joyce just went... Starter?  Miguel Gonzalez is gone, too.  Ugly situation.  I like upside and park factor, so I went with the aforementioned Graveman.  I think he's got the job and I think he'll be solid, especially at home.

Long lines for guys with playing time.  Long lines.  James Jones and his 27 steals (with only 1 CS) in just 312 AB's last year, went to me next.  David Murphy was my next pick, and he is likely a starter in Cleveland and surprisingly not too terrible...  Playing Time + Average Stats = Value.

I then took Eric Sogard, who is terrible, but he plays and qualifies at both MI positions.  Don't judge me.  Long lines!

Rickie Weeks is an upside lottery ticket play in the 25th round.  He was pretty good last year and if he finds a way to get AB's he'll have sensational value at this pick.  There are plenty of trade rumors since the M's don't really need him.

My penultimate pick was Craig Gentry, who is platooning with Sam Fuld and I don't believe in Sam Fuld.  Okay I don't believe in Gentry either, but I like him a whole lot more than Fuld.

Last pick was another setup guy - Edward Mujica.  He had a neck issue last year plus issues dealing with the transition to the AL.  Nevertheless, he still got 8 saves.  And do you remember how great he was before last year?  Pretty great.  If he's healthy he is the next closer in Boston should Koji bow to Father Time.... That, or he could be traded.  There have been rumors... So he could be closing somewhere else.  Not a bad gamble in the last round.

So, there it is.  My OF is pretty strong, my corners and catchers are stupendous, and my RP situation is pretty good for my low investment.

I feel like the rotation is a patchwork of guys I don't normally take, but there is a lot of upside there:  Sonny Gray, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Archer, Jesse Hahn, and even Kendall Graveman.  I must love park factor because I took almost all of the Oakland staff.  Wins might be an issue.

However, backing up those guys in the ratios and K's are Davis, Farquhar, Feliz, Soria, and Mujica.  I think that is a strong supplementary crew.

The middle infield is a train wreck on this team.  Mookie Betts might be without a position, and if that is the case it's even worse.  Josh Rutledge is my SS and Omar Infante is the MI.  Ew.  At least I've got Eric Sogard and Rickie Weeks on my bench, so you know, there's that.  Horrendous.  My only hope here is that the composite BA can stay above .270 and playing time is high enough that the counting stats remain at an average level... and those things can happen.  It is important to understand the downside risk in the areas that you de-prioritize so even if there isn't much ceiling the floor isn't too low either.  Then, your areas of strength can be free to carry you to victory.

Knock Knock.
...who's there?

Sogard.
...Sogard who?

There is no punch line.

Thank you, folks... I'll be here all week.

The All-Balance Team, 2015

The prevailing wisdom in auction leagues is something called 'Stars and Scrubs.'  The idea here is that you invest heavily in a few guys to anchor your team since top-end talent is rare and is usually the difference maker in a long season.  Plus, your bench guys and waiver wire guys are more or less interchangeable since you just need a guy to plug in once in a blue moon.

That's all well and good, but I've got a few issues with that:

1. Too many eggs in too few baskets.  If Trout or Kershaw go down with an injury, there goes 20% of your auction money.
2. Bench guys do not have to be cheapies.  They can have real value if you plan well, and let me tell you, there is a world of difference between an $8 guy and a $1 replacement player.
3. In leagues with daily lineup changes flexibility is king.  Imagine a world where all of your guys are roughly equivalent and many of them play multiple positions?  You can play the matchups every blasted day... No more pitching in Coors or batting in Petco.  No more batting versus Kershaw and King Felix.  Nagging injury?  No problem!

Okay, so many leagues are 12 teams with a $260 budget.  In most of those leagues you're going to draft anywhere from 22-29 players, something like that.  To make the math easy, let's just say you are looking to grab 26 players with your $260:  $10 each on average.

I used the auction rankings at FantasyPros.com for values, with 65% reserved for batters.  From there I just blocked out all players valued between $8 and $12.

But, Dave, you say.... Dave, how can I compete with an entire roster of $10 players?  Behold...

Catcher ($20):
Salvador Perez - $8
Evan Gattis - $12

1B ($24):
Joey Votto - $12
Prince Fielder - $12
(also qualify here: Gattis)

2B ($18):
Howie Kendrick - $10
Martin Prado - $8
(also qualify here: Zobrist)

SS ($16):
Starlin Castro - $8
Jimmy Rollins - $8
(also qualify here: Zobrist)

3B ($20):
Ryan Zimmerman - $11
Manny Machado - $9
(hard to pass up David Wright at $12, too)
(also qualify here: Prado and Harrison)

OF ($63):
Ben Zobrist - $12
Josh Harrison - $8
Billy Hamilton - $12
J.D. Martinez - $11
Marcell Ozuna - $10
Shin-Soo Choo - $10
(also qualify here: Zimmerman, Prado, and Gattis)

SP ($60):
Gio Gonzalez - $10
Carlos Carrasco - $8
Tyson Ross - $9
Julio Teheran - $12
Homer Bailey - $9
Jose Fernandez - $12

RP ($43):
Dellin Betances - $10
David Robertson - $11
Steve Cishek - $9
Mark Melancon - $13

All told it's $264, so feel free to drop an outfielder and add a cheaper pitcher like Jose Quintana or Zach Britton, both $6.

I think the beauty of this approach is the fact that you never really know who is going to break out or have the big comeback season.  It also insulates you from slumps and injuries and also the curse of the big first half.

This team wins steals, wins saves, has a staff full of potential aces, and has insane roster flexibility on the hitting side.  Plus, did you think there would be all of those erstwhile superstars like Fielder, Votto, Choo, and Zimmerman on there?  Any one could bust out, plus there is greaet upside with younger guys that we saw have big years in 2014 - Harrison, Martinez, and even Hamilton.

Think you could win with a squad like this?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders League: Strategy

Have you ever been in a situation like a business conference or a big school function, or even something like what you thought was a costume party, where you thought you had to get all dressed up... but when you get to the event everyone is wearing jeans and t-shirts?  You get dressed to the nines in your Italian suit and perfect tie, or if it's October, maybe you absolutely crush it on your zombie Homer Simpson costume.  Either way, you're feeling pretty good.

All decked out, walking into the event... Then you see the sea of denim.  Your over-inflated opinion of yourself springs a leak and withers to the ground.

It's kind of like after one of those 'experts' drafts that take place five weeks before the season.  You (and by that I mean "me") add up the projected stats from all of your picks and it turns out that if you had this team last year, you would have finished in first place in nine categories!  Amazing!  Yeah, over-inflated.

Nevertheless, let's take a look and I'll explain my rationale and how I got all Larry Schechter on these fools.

I had the 3rd pick and hoped for McCutchen since Scott White (@CBSScottWhite) ranked Miggy #2.  Unfortunately

Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy

Welcome to the weekend, Brainiacs!  I hope you are, like me, going to be playing some daily fantasy games this weekend.  (You can even play against me tonight if you are so inclined... This is the link to the game:  goo.gl/QkDRu)

I've been doing some thinking about strategy relative to those daily sites like FanDuel.  It is a compressed period of time so there can be some variance.  The best way to combat that is with frequency.

However, frequent play may not be something you can keep up with right away.  In fact, one of the best things about daily fantasy is the ability to get your fantasy fix over a short period of time.  So, with that

Weekend Free Agent Pickups

Check it out, Brainiacs...  Once again I was honored to be included in a feature at FantasyPros.com.  This one has to do with waiver wire pickups for the weekend.  The feature focuses on players that are owned in less than 50% of leagues.

For my blurbs I picked Nick Franklin as my hitter and Jason Hammel as my pitcher.

With Franklin it is a mix of things, but primarily the fact that middle infield is very thin and Franklin has raked in the minors this year.  Hopefully he can continue that production in the big leagues.  His two dingers on Thursday are a pretty good indication that he might.

For Hammel, I'm wondering if he is starting to come around.  He's supposed to be the Orioles' ace but his performance this year has been fairly pedestrian.  However, in his last two starts he's averaged 7.1 innings, seven K's, two runs, and just one walk.  We'll see if he can keep pitching like an ace, but he has recently, he did last year, and he's healthy.

Not a bad gamble for a guy who is available in more than 50% of leagues, right?

You can check out the article here!

Battle the Brain at FanDuel

Here you go, Brainiacs!  Another chance to take me on for fantasy baseball supremacy!

Click here!  $10 gets you in...  Prizes include a trip to Vegas and $1,000.

Also, as usual... if you beat me, I'll post your smack talk to my thousands of followers on Twitter!  :)  Good luck!

http://goo.gl/QkDRu

Chris Davis to Infinity

Would it really be all that strange to start predicting 60 home runs for Chris Davis?  I mean, I know we aren't supposed to predict numbers that high... but seriously.  Dude is mashing.

And, he's not just mashing but he's exhibiting amazing balance, patience, and plate coverage.  He doesn't just punish mistake pitches.  He isn't just pulling the inside fastball down the line.  This guy is hitting against the shift, hitting to the opposite field, moving runners over.

And, as a result, he's hitting for average.  You know, to go with all of the power numbers.  Davis is hitting .359 and leading all of baseball in OPS with 1.214.  That just can't continue, can it?

Well, no...

Uh...  Yes and no...

Some yes..

Okay listen, he's got a .392 BABIP so far this year which indicates that he's been a bit lucky with the base hits.  But he's got a career BABIP of .342 so it's not too terribly far off.  A high BABIP makes sense for someone with super-human planet of Krypton strength.  Like Davis.  When he puts the ball in play it's coming at you faster than a speeding bullet.

The average is sure to come down, but even if he hits .300 the rest of the way he's going to finish the year with an average around .320.  Which is insane.

And, did I mention power?  He's on pace for 59 home runs and 156 RBI.  It just can't continue, right?  He's hit one extra base hit every 5.92 plate appearances this year.  In his minor league career he got one every 7.75 plate appearances and so far in the majors it's one every 9.5 PA's.  So, I wouldn't think that his current rate can continue.

If he gets 450 more PA's this year and gets one XBH for every 8 PA's, you're talking about 56 more XBH's and 93 for the year.  If 30 of those additional XBH's go for homers, he'll get 49 for the season.

It's crazy to say that 49 is a reasonable number, but that's what I'm saying.

And regarding batting average, this is a guy who hit .318 over more than 2,000 PA's in the minors.  I believe that the power and the average are both legit.  It's not far-fetched to say he ends up hitting .320 with 49 dingers this year.

One last thing about Davis.  For the first time in his major league career he has a set every-day position.  Last year he was a mainstay in the lineup but he played all over the diamond.  In Texas he was yanked all over the place including to and from the farm.  This year the Orioles said, "Chris we believe in you.  You will be the first baseman all year.  We live and die with you.  No need to ever look over your shoulder."  For some people that is what it takes to get comfortable and produce.  Maybe Davis is one of those guys.

I hate to keep harping on his minor league numbers, but that is the last time he was this comfortable.  And, in the minors he was epic.  His MiLB numbers were positively Andruw Jones-ian.  (Which is to say, more than merely amazing.  He wasn't just a hot hitting prospect.  His MiLB production was some of the best ever.)

So, if you could get him in trade for something like Edwin Encarnacion plus Andrew Cashner you have to do it.  The owner in your league with Davis may think he's selling high.  You're going to have to deal a very good 1B plus something like a quality starter or some other piece of good value.  Don't get too carried away, because he's likely to go for .300 and 30 HR the rest of the way... which is great, but he will regress just a bit.

Adrian Gonzalez plus Max Scherzer, maybe?

FanDuel with the Brain

Here we go...  It's Duel time, Brainiacs!!

That's right, folks... It's another duel with the Brain.  Click the logo, or click here to join.  It's ten bucks.  If you beat me, I'll post your comments here and re-tweet your trash talk on Twitter.

And listen, I don't mind promising that since I'm feeling pretty confident today.  I've got a good grasp on today's action over at FanDuel, and I'll give you some of my thoughts right here in a few seconds.

If you aren't familiar with daily fantasy games, just think of it as a one-day fantasy season with huge prizes.  Lots of fun, no commitment.'

Tonight's prizes:

1. First Prize:  A seat in the prestigious DFBC Finals, plus a trip to Las Vegas!!
2. Second Prize:  A cool $1,000.
3. Third Prize: $700
4. Top 249 get paid... $20 on the low end, which is double the entry fee.

Here are a few thoughts and tips to get you started in our matchup and the other games you might play at FanDuel:

• First, about the interface itself.  I really like the way you can click a button for each game.  When you do the players for those two teams will appear in the box below, and only the position you have selected if you have narrowed it down in that way.  So in other words, you can click on the Pitchers button and then click on "WAS @ SDP" to see who's going in that matchup.  And, you can do the same for favorable hitting matchups, like "SFG @ COL" for example.
• Gio Gonzalez is pitching in San Diego tonight which is great, but he costs $8,400.  I think that is a bit too expensive to keep you competitive elsewhere.  I'm leaning toward Jaime Garcia at home for only $6,900 or Jarrod Parker in Oakland for only $5,200.
• Pablo Sandoval has been on fire and he's in Colorado tonight.  That's $3,600 well spent.
• It's an interesting night tonight where the worst starting pitchers seem to be pitching in favorable ballparks - Burch Smith for the Padres and Vance Worley in Minnesota.  We've got some of the reverse, too:  Madison Bumgarner in Colorado and Cliff Lee in Philly.
• Bumgarner might be the worst value of the night at a lofty $8,800.  Too rich for me.
• Looking at the cheapest players, I was thinking of Ben Revere... but he's not playing again tonight.  Look elsewhere, Brainiacs.

Just a few thoughts my friends...  Weigh in with your comments.  What do you think some good values are tonight?

It should be lots of fun.... I hope to see you over at FanDuel.  And, did I mention you can win a trip to Vegas?  $1,000?  That the top 249 people get paid?

C'mon, give it a click and see if you can beat me:  http://goo.gl/QkDRu

FanDuel: Beat the Brain

Are you good enough to beat the Brain?!?  Well, let's find out!  The good people at FanDuel have set up a contest today so we can see who the real brain is around here.

Head on over to this link to sign up...  It's ten bucks to play, and the top three players win $600, $450, and $350 respectively.  (With lots more getting a payout, too!)

Let's see who the real brain is: CLICK HERE

And, if you are new to daily fantasy leagues, don't worry... They are lots of fun and easy to jump into.  You don't have the long-term commitment of a regular league.  Give it a try.

And, to get you started, here are a few thoughts for you on the game and today's matchups:

• Pitching matchups and park factors are critical.  You are only dealing with one specific game, so today's matchup and the effect of the ballpark are two of the most critical elements in picking your roster.  One obvious example is Clayton Kershaw at San Francisco.  Great park factor with a great pitcher.  Pitchers are expensive, though... so finding a cheaper alternative that still has a great situation today may be the way to go.  Some examples there are Wade Miley (in San Diego for $1,800 less) and Doug Fister (at Houston for $2,500 less than Kershaw).
• Also, keep an eye on recent performance.  Some hitters are streaky and are starting to get into a groove.  Nate McLouth is a great example of this, though his price today at FanDuel reflects his hot streak ($4,300).  Nate's got a pretty good matchup with Jason Vargas but a lower quality park factor in Anaheim.  My belief is that he will earn his money on your team.
• Be careful with hot streaks though.  The trick can be trying to estimate when they will end.  Evan Gattis has been crushing the ball this year and he's got a great matchup against Shawn Marcum, who just doesn't seem to be all the way back from his injury.  My problem there is that the hot streak has been going on for a few weeks now and it's got to stop sometime.  Plus, no one had heard of Evan Gattis three weeks ago and it's not the best park factor.  Plus, he'll cost you $3,500 for your FanDuel roster.  Salvador Perez can be had for only $2,400.  One thought on Perez: You should check the weather report... Looks like rain again tonight in KC.
• Which leads me to another thought...  Pay attention to the weather report and spread out your risk.  Looking at the weather is mostly about rain, but you could also take a look at temperature.  For example, it's supposed to be 37 degrees in Denver tonight.  Nevertheless, I don't think that trumps the matchup and park factor so start your Tampa Rays in the thin air against Jeff Francis.
• Also, look for superstars at low costs.  Chase Headley (mashing the ball) is only $3,600 and Adam Jones (good matchup) is just $3,900.

Okay, folks... That's all for now.  I may post more later but I can't give away my secrets all at once.  Head over to FanDuel (click here) and show me who's boss!

Another Fantasy Pros Feature

I am grateful to have been able to contribute to another feature over at Fantasy Pros.  Check it out here:  http://www.fantasypros.com/2013/04/fantasy-baseball-waiver-wire-rankings/

Thanks, guys!  Good luck in your games this weekend!

Full Circle on Relief Pitchers

When I first started playing fantasy baseball I drafted pitchers like just about everyone else - a starter every so often and a couple of relievers later on in the draft.  As I started to play more often I realized that you could basically take your pick of the top setup men in all of baseball for pretty much nothing.  I theorized that you'd be able to get great ERA and WHIP numbers out of these guys for close to zero investment.

And, as I continued to develop the strategy I went from two or three relievers to four closers... then to five total relievers, then six.  I realized that your could dominate the saves category if you locked up four middle-of-the-road closers and if you added one or even two elite setup guys to the mix your other stats would benefit as well.  Plus, one of those setup guys could possibly get promoted to the closer gig which would provide even more value and a good trade chip later on.

I started to think about it even further and what I was seeing was that if you have an imbalanced number of closers on your squad you can start to run away with the saves category.  That cushion gives you breathing room in the category but also increases the value of the closers you own since you are making them more scarce.  All great things.

But, then I started to dig deeper into the numbers...

Fantasy Pros: Bold Predictions

One more time, Brainiacs...  The good people at Fantasy Pros asked me to contribute to another article for their site.  This one was about bold predictions.

You can check it out if you click here.

The predictions in the feature have very different levels of boldness from the obvious to the insane, so check it out. 

I wanted to go with something that is unlikely to happen but defensible.  I chose to plant a flag on Cameron Maybin getting 15 home runs to go with 35 steals and a .270 batting average.  The 35 steals isn't all that bold but it's a lot more than he did last year.  The 15 homers would be a career high and .270 would be his highest average in the big leagues.  He only hit .243 in 2012.

Maybin is 26 years old this year which is a great time to break out for someone with his level of experience.  In his last two significant stops at AAA he hit .338 and .319, respectively.  And, while the predicted numbers are unlikely, it's possible that he starts to put it all together this year and breaks out.  Hence the bold prediction.

Springs Stats Mean Nuthin'

The conventional wisdom of the experts is to ignore statistics of Spring Training.  There is a kernel of truth to it, which I will explain, but I believe there are a few compelling reasons why you should pay attention to ST stats.

There are, in my view, three reasons why people oppose any reliance on ST stats: (1) Small number of at bats and innings pitched; (2) Varying levels of competition; and, (3) Different stages of preparedness.  These are all absolutely valid.

The number of at bats and the number of innings pitched in the Spring are just too small to go crazy over.  Matt Wieters is hitting over .400 this Spring with nice power.  He didn't turn into Ted Williams over the winter, folks.

It's also true that you don't know what level of competition these stats are coming against.  Jason Castro has six Spring Training home runs, which is great.  But, did he hit them off of Justin Verlander or did they come off of the "organizational depth" type of guys brought over from the rookie camp to throw an inning or two?  The fact that

Fantasy Pros: Overvalued Players

Hi Brainiacs!  This week I was honored to be included once again in a feature at FantasyPros.com.  This one is the flip side of last week's, now discussing this year's overvalued players.

I was asked to write about Ryan Howard, and I was thrilled to be able to contribute my thoughts.  It would appear that I am a lot lower on Howard than just about anyone else, but there are good reasons.  There is some hope that at the age of 33 he'll start hitting again like he did a few years ago, but the fact is that his floor (worst case scenario) is incredibly low. 

Howard was limited to just 260 AB's last year due to an achilles injury and he was only able to hit .219 with 28 runs scored.  This performance was after already seeing his BA dip to .253 when he was still healthy in 2011.  But it's not just his BA that is suffering, but also his runs scored.  Footspeed affects both, and you can't tell me that the achilles injury didn't damage his wheels.  This is a guy who has averaged 98 runs per season over his career and last year was only on pace for about 60 or so.  The fact is that he will absolutely kill you in two categories, even if his home runs and RBI bounce back this year.  And, frankly, I'm willing to bet that Mark Reynolds beats him in both of those categories.  Heck, maybe all five.

My projection for Howard is a .239 BA, 31 HR, 91 RBI, 68 R, and 0 SB.  That is nowhere near 8th round production, but that is where you'd have to draft him.  No thanks, folks.

Here's the link if you want to check out all of the experts' blurbs: http://www.fantasypros.com/2013/03/overvalued-players/

Fantasy Pros: Undervalued Players

Hey Brainiacs!  I was invited to contribute to a feature over at FantasyPros.com about undervalued players.

The article lists a bunch of players who are more highly valued by the experts than they are going in drafts.  In other words, their ADP is later than where the experts think they should be going so these guys are likely to be values for you.

The player I was asked to comment on was Brett Gardner.  While he might not be my number one pick for undervalued player, it would appear that I like him a lot more than his average draft position.  You can read the blurb in the article, but the basic point is that he will be a premier source for stolen bases as well as runs.  He'll hurt you in RBI (meaning he'll get a lot less than the average performer at the position) but he'll be reasonable in batting average (.270-ish) and home runs (maybe 8-10 on the high end, with a bit of luck).

Anyway, I had fun writing the blurb in defense of Gardner in the 9th round.  I hope to do it again!  Here's the link:  http://www.fantasypros.com/2013/03/undervalued-players/

Keeper League Trade

In my previous post I mentioned that I have Jason Kipnis in three leagues already this year.  Well, I just did it again with Jose Reyes.  I wanted to explain the parameters of the deal and my thought process for making the trade.

First of all, the league.  This is a 20-team mixed league with 10 keepers plus three minor leaguers.  The draft is an auction with just $200, minus the value of your keepers.  My keepers in this league were at $62 before the trade, so I was going to be working with $138 to fill 14 spots.  There is a fair amount of inflation with this league due to the number of keepers, but that is mitigated somewhat by the large number of teams and smaller auction budgets.  Resources are scarce in a 20-team league and my belief is that especially limited resources like catchers, shortstops, and closers are highly valuable.  This is why I'm keeping Brandon League.  The conventional wisdom is that Kenley Jansen takes that job from him, but until he does League is as good as gold.

We only have three outfielders (albeit position-specific - LF, CF, RF) and no MI's or CI's, so that reduces the crush on those components.  It's a Yahoo-style league with a few tweaks.  It's got a great commissioner and tremendous competition...  I really enjoy the league and heartily recommend something this deep for those of you who love fantasy.

So, a rundown of my keepers before the trade:

• J. Montero - $5
• Kipnis - $17
• Kendrick - $7
• C. Davis - $1
• Headley - $1
• Heyward - $24
• C. Maybin - $1
• Morrow - $2
• League - $3
• Perkins - $1

I've also got Miguel Montero for $11, but I think he misses the cut.  

Okay, so here are the players involved in the deal:

Jason Kipnis: Should I be concerned?

I drafted Jason Kipnis in both of my expert leagues so far and I have him in my 20-team keeper league as well.  Last year he only hit .257 with just 14 home runs, though he did swipe 31 bags.

The problem with that stat line is that he never came close to that number of steals in any previous season and it inflates his price on draft day.  A lot.  Okay, so color me concerned.

Here we have a second baseman who hits for a low average and a moderate amount of power who produced one valuable number last year.  And that number, the steals, does not appear to be repeatable based on track record.  Concerned?  Nervous?  In a word - Idunno.

I do know this - second base is a very shallow position and Kipnis was a highly regarded prospect who set the world on fire in the first half last year.  Did he hit a rookie wall?  Will he be better prepared this year?  Maybe, but I'd really like to dig deeper than that if it's okay with you.

Let's delve into each statistic and see what we can project for a 26-year-old in his second full season:

FBIL Expert League Draft

Monday night was the Fantasy Baseball Insiders League draft and I was fortunate enough to be included in the league among some luminaries in the fantasy baseball world.  My man Jeff Boggis of Fantasy Sports Empires has launched a site that will contain updates on the league as the season progresses, which should be a lot of fun.  I'll include the link at the bottom so you can check in on us.

It is a 12-team mixed league with 29 roster slots.  Starting positions include two catchers, five outfielders, a corner infielder, and a middle infielder, plus all of the other usual suspects.

Here at the Brain we focus on strategy and tactics, so I'd like to give you my thoughts in that regard going into this draft.  I'll tell you about the actual players in a minute and how they hopefully fit into the strategy as well as the spots where I didn't hit the goal.  I definitely reached in a few rounds with what seemed like a very fast timer.  It always seemed like I was under 30 seconds to go with my picks, and even though I got them all in on time there were several rounds where I grabbed someone from my queue a round or two early.  I figured it was better to reach a little on a guy I like than to let the auto-pick give me the best available player.

Lots and lots of detailed strategy and analysis after the break...

Jeff Keppinger Won't Hurt You

Okay, folks... The topic today is something we covered last year, but I think it is important, so Ima gonna hit it again.

In my FSIC AL-Only league draft that I wrote about recently I took Jeff Keppinger in the 19th round.  To me, Keppinger is the poster child for a player who "isn't going to hurt you."  At least that's what they say.

But what are people really saying there?

What they are saying is that he'll hit for average but not do anything else.  In other words, when people talk about a player who isn't going to hurt you they are usually talking about a player who does well in qualitative stats (batting average, ERA, WHIP) but doesn't contribute elsewhere.  I'm not sure exactly why this is so, but I do know that nothing hurts quite so much as seeing one of your players go 0 for 6 with zero runs, RBI, or stolen bases.  Keppinger will pretty much never do that to you.

However...

FSIC AL-Only Draft Strategy

What's up, Brainiacs!  Believe it or not, we have already entered drafting season in fantasy baseball.  This past Sunday the FSIC guys conducted the 2013 AL-Only draft and I was honored to be included once again this year.

Like last year, there were some snafus with the drafting software...  but it turned out just fine.  In 2012 I had the wheel pick at the end of the first round and auto-drafted Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez even though I didn't want to take pitching that early.  After cashing in on a handful of great starts by King Felix, I parlayed him into Mark Teixeria, Jose Valverde, Dayan Viciedo, and a couple of other roster improvements.  It may not sound like a lot, but my 1B situation was atrocious and I had zero closers plus a couple of part-timers in the OF.  It worked out very well, and I was able to finish in a respectable 6th place (and #3 in pitching even without most of Felix's season).

That's nice and all for my first year in a league of this caliber, but it left me wanting more.  The competition is fierce, but I'd like to see if I can push for the title in year two.

I devised a strategy for this league and was able to stick to it for the most part.  In a league like this, the rarest commodity is typically the middle infield slot (specifically MI, not SS or 2B as much) and the outfield.  I made up my mind to prioritize outfielders, but not until I had my three middle infield slots filled.  That meant I was de-prioritizing pitching and some of the corner infield slots, and I was okay with that.

Let's have a look at each position and how I addressed them: