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Friday, July 22, 2016

Sleepers and Semi-Sleepers from Every Team

Arizona - Michael Floyd, WR. ADP=48.
Rough way to start a sleeper list with a late-4th, early-5th rounder.  It's alphabetical.  It will get better.  Floyd will outproduce this cost and the only other potential sleeper is Chris Johnson at #155.

Atlanta - Matt Ryan, QB.  ADP=135.

It will get better... keep reading.  I do like Ryan at #135 though.

Baltimore - Kamar Aiken, WR.  ADP=121.

I believe Aiken leads this WR group in 2016.  He's big, fast, experienced, and had a really nice year in 2015.  I also don't trust Steve Smith or Mike Wallace at this point.

Buffalo - Mike Gillislee, RB.  ADP=Undrafted

He'll be the backup to LeSean McCoy.  He averaged 5.7 ypc in limited work last year, despite a stinker in week 17.

Carolina - Jonathan Stewart, RB.  ADP=67.

Okay, there are a lot mitigating factors here... This is your classic boom or bust pick.  Stewart's actual value will probably put him before #48 or after #120.

Chicago - Jordan Howard, RB.  ADP=160.  

No one seems to believe in Jeremy Langford.  You?  No?  Howard is cheap.  If he gets the load he's a steal at this point on volume alone.

Cincinnati - Tyler Eifert, TE.  ADP=76.
Okay, so 76th is pretty high for a sleeper.  I couldn't go with Brandon LaFell and I think this is great value for Eifert if he gets healthy.  Andy Dalton has AJ Green to throw to but will really rely on Eifert this year.  Also good value in chili-spaghetti-city is the DST.

Cleveland - Josh Gordon, WR.  ADP=142.

He's getting reinstated. (In my opinion.) 
There was that one season he was the top WR in the league. (Not an opinion.) 
He is entering his physical prime at just 25 years old. (Not an opinion.)
He's really, really got something to prove.  (Opinion?)

Dallas - Terrance Williams, WR.  ADP=192.

Heaven help me, I still believe.  There's just no one there beyond Dez, and Romo is a really good QB.  I mean, yeah, I like Cole Beasley a little bit... but c'mon man... The opportunity is there for Williams and his ADP is 192.  192.

Denver - Devontae Booker, RB.  ADP=165.

That's a good price even as a handcuff.  If CJ Anderson goes down or flakes out for some reason, Booker's your guy.

Detroit - Marvin Jones, WR.  ADP=85.

I believe that Golden Tate is more of a second banana.  I know Marvin Jones is 26 years old, 6'2", and once caught 10 TD's in a season.  I believe Matthew Stafford has a better arm than Andy Dalton.  I know that the Lions need someone to fill the hole left by Mega's departure.  I also believe that the taking Tate in the 3rd round is crazy sauce.

Green Bay - Jared Cook, TE.  ADP=163.

Jared Cook is really talented.  Aaron Rodgers is really talented.  Let's not overthink this at #163.

Houston - Will Fuller, WR. ADP=Undrafted.

Okay, he's a rookie and he'll have Brock Osweiler throwing the ball to him.  Makes sense that he's undrafted, I guess... but he was a 1st round pick and he should be the #2 option in the passing attack.

Indapolis - Phillip Dorsett, WR.  ADP=161.  
Plenty of room for three WR's here.  They spent a 1st on Dorsett and want to see him fly.

Jacksonville - TJ Yeldon, RB.  ADP=97.

Lots of mouths to feed in Jacksonville... plus they brought in Chris Ivory.  Good.  Keeps Yeldon's cost down.

Kansas City - Charcandrick West, RB.  ADP=125.

Jamaal Charles is a generational talent.  He also gets injured often.
West is also really good.  He will get those touches when Charles goes down. He'll cost you an 11th rounder.

Los Angeles - Tavon Austin, WR.  ADP=118.
If Jared Goff knows what's good for him he'll find Austin in space.  I'm not sold on this one, but he intrigues me immensely.

Miami - Ryan Tannehill, QB. ADP=158.  
Everyone's darling last year.  He didn't produce at elite levels but also wasn't as bad as you think.  Still just 27 entering his fifth season.  Bring on the Adam Gase offense.

Minnisota - Jerrick McKinnon, RB.  ADP=152.  

People are down on AD because of his age and injury history.  Okay, fine... What are you gonna do about it?  Simply not draft him?  Why not take his talented backup in the 14th round and take a stand?

New England - Jimmy Garapolo, QB.  ADP=Undrafted.  

I mean, he's getting four starts right?  Three of them are pretty good matchups.  Let me put it this way, would you be surprised to look up after week four and see this guy in the top 10?  Me neither.  He costs nothing.  I also like the idea of knowing who I'm cutting in week five for the flavor of the day.

New Orleans - Michael Thomas, WR.  ADP=152.  

Love, love, love Brandin Cooks.  Willie Snead I'm not buying.  Coby Fleener might do something here... though it does seem that there is a lot of opportunity in a Brees offense for a bigger WR. Even an unproven one.

New York Giants - Paul Perkins, RB.  ADP=179.  

Color me crazy, but I don't think Rashad Jennings will hold up.

New York Jets - Bilal Powell, RB.  ADP=119.

47 receptions in 11 games last year plus 4.5 ypc on the ground.  He's behind Matt Forte, but they are already talking about a time share to keep Forte fresh.  You could do worse at #119.

Oakland - Latavius Murray, RB.  ADP=45.

Hmm, so maybe it's hard to say 'sleeper' at 45... Nevertheless this is too low for Murray.

Philadelphia - Wendell Smallwood, RB.  ADP=192.  

So, Ryan Mathews?  Then what?

Pittsburgh - Sammie Coates, WR.  ADP=140.
It's a shot in the dark since I doubt Markus Wheaton's hands.

San Diego - Travis Benjamin, WR.  ADP=115.
I really don't think Benjamin's year was a fluke in 2015.  This year he's got a much better QB sitch and Keenan Allen will get all of the double teams.  Benjamin on the 9-route for the score!!

San Francisco - Torrey Smith, WR.  ADP=111.

The QB in San Fran probably won't be good.  However, there is a lot of room in a Chip Kelly offense for a receiver as accomplished and explosive as Smith.

Seattle - Tyler Lockett, WR.  ADP=74.

Lockett will emerge as a star in 2016. 
Step 1 - Draft Lockett at #74.
Step 2 - Profit.

Tampa Bay - Vincent Jackson, WR.  ADP=130.

Baby, I can't quit you.  Jameis gets better this year and Evans can't get all the targets.

Tennessee - Rishard Matthews, WR.  ADP=173.
I just don't believe in Kendall Wright or a rookie named Tajae Sharp...  In just 11 games last year Matthews grabbed 43 balls at a career high of 15.3 yards per reception.  Maybe it's his time?

Washington - Josh Doctson, WR.  ADP=164.

Man, I loved Doctson in the draft this year.  There is a non-zero chance that he outperforms DeSean Jackson in 2016.  164 is a cheap way to find out.  The other thing about Doctson is that even though he's a rookie I believe you'll know really quickly if they are going to trust him this year.  If he isn't getting used you can cut him.