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Thursday, August 16, 2012

Taking the Best Player Available

A lot of sites (most, really) have a "Top 300" or "Top 200" type of list.  This lists players in order of value according to their experts.  There are reasons why people like to see this - maybe they don't do much in the way of value based drafting (as we teach in "The Program") or they just want to quickly compare relative values across positions.

The problem is that a fantasy football draft doesn't work that way, especially after the first 6 or 7 rounds.  You can't just take the next guy on the list because you are building a roster that can compete for the championship, not just the best collection of names.

Also, you're going to want to shift gears a lot in a draft between proven, solid performers and big time upside picks.  If you don't take a few shots on upside plays, you will be putting your chances of winning the league mostly in the hands of lady luck.  But, if you gamble a little (not too much) and you hit on half of those picks you'll be giving yourself a chance to win the league on the merit of your own skill.

Furthermore, let's think logically about those Top 300 lists.  When the experts are writing those lists what they do is to create sub-lists for positions and then mash them together.  That leaves you with clumps of players from similar positions, especially as you start to get into the middle rounds.  So, for example, it may be the case that there are receivers ranked from #84 through #89.  What the expert is saying is that they are basically all the same.  If there is a running back at #90 and then a gap until #102 until the next RB, you may be better off drafting the RB listed at #90 rather than the WR at #84.  Why?  Because the value of the next WR you get should be in that range from #84-#89, but the next RB is ranked 12 spots lower and is probably not in the same class as Mr. #90.

Another thing, primarily with regard to quarterbacks.  Let's say you are in a 10-team league.  Let's say in that league that QB's ranked from #7 to #10 are all grouped together as about 5th round picks.  If the first three go off the board in the 5th, you could be feeling like you really need to draft that 10th QB.  The bottom line, though, is that you can wait because everyone else has their starter and QB #10 will probably still be there for you in the 7th round.  There are values for you at RB and WR there since everyone else has been focusing on QB's.

Just a few thoughts for you.  We have a lot more to share, so please check out our training package so you can discover the fantasy greatness that is within you!