Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge: AL-Only Strategy

There was once this guy who asked a girl to the prom and she said yes. He was excited but knew he needed to go and get a tux, reserve a limo, and get a corsage.  So, he went to the tux place and the line was out the door!  He waited and waited, but finally got the tuxedo.  At the limo place, same thing!  Line out the door and down the street, but he reserved a limo for the big dance.  When he got to the flower shop, wouldn't you know it... super long line.  But the girl was worth it, so he stayed in the line and got the corsage.

The night of the prom he rolled up in the limo and they went to the dance.  His date said she was thirsty and he said he would get her something to drink...

he walked to the table...

and...

...there was no punch line.

But seriously folks, yesterday was the annual FSIC expert league.  It is one of the oldest and most respected expert leagues around, even though the famous ones like Tout Wars and LABR have surpassed it in notoriety by quite a margin.  The one I am in is the AL-Only league and like any "only" league it requires a lot of strategy and careful consideration, especially in the latter rounds.

Think about it, 10 teams and 28 rounds is 280 players.  There are 15 American League teams so we're drafting about 19 players per team on average...  Most teams have a 7-man pen and a 4-man bench, so if you remove the closer that leaves you with around 10 guys per team without regular playing time.  Since teams have a 25-man roster, that leaves you with about 15 guys per team with any kind or regular playing time, and that includes #5 starters, platoon situations, part-time DH's, and shaky closer candidates.  It's a minefield out there, and every team is going to have some seriously sketchy draft picks.

This league only has one catcher, but it does have middle infielders and corners ("MI" and "CI") plus five outfielders.  So, any given week this league will start 10 catchers out of the 15 available which is not too bad..  Plus approximately 15 each at 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B of the 15 available.  Pretty much all of them.  And in the outfield you'll need 50 each week when there are only 45 positions in the league before you even consider platoon situations.  The one thing that eases this a bit are the DH's which will often play a position as well like OF or 1B, but still there is a Utility position in this league so even those 15 AL DH's will dry up fast.

Another strategic consideration is at closer where there are less than 15 good ones out there and in this league you're going to want to have two to get an edge if possible.  My prediction was that the few elite options like Greg Holland would fly off of the board.  And, if every team in this league takes six starters, well that's four out of every five available and full rotations aren't even set yet.  Guys like Kendall Graveman are still battling for a spot.

So, my strategy involved a few things:

1. Prioritize OF.  Get three or four relatively quickly.
2. Don't worry so much about catcher unless you can get a great value.
3. Pick up value throughout. See who is slipping and scoop them up because in these expert leagues (all leagues, really) people have guys they like and will tend to reach a bit in the middle rounds to get their guys.
4. Get solid starters in their prime, in good ballparks, at good value.
5. Try to get good value on two of the lower-rated closers, plus a setup guy or two.
6. Prioritize MI over CI.
7. Always try to get the guy with playing time since they are at a premium.

So, how'd it go?  (Update Note from Dave:  I just calculated the total value amassed on these picks according to auction value on FantasyPros.com and the top 22 players equal $315 in projected value.  That's pretty awesome, iidssm.  I guess my next comment was accurate:)  I did pretty well on the value piece, with players slipping to me all over.  However, I did get sniped quite a bit as per usual in these snake drafts.  I felt like the guy waiting in all of the lines.

I had the #8 pick, so I also had #13.  Of course I'd rather get Trout at #1, but by my estimation there are only about 15 elite studs in the AL so I would get two while the top five teams would only get one uber-stud.

At #8 I was choosing between Adam Jones, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson.  I figured the two I didn't take would go before #13 and I might end up with David Price there.  I was prioritizing OF, so I went with Jones.  Crazy thing, at #13 Donaldson and E5 were both still there.  No punch line.

I took Donaldson thinking that 1B would be slightly easier to fill, but I honestly started to look at Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez there, knowing they wouldn't come back to me at #28.  I hoped that Chris Davis would make it.  Nope.  Long lines for all three, with Davis going #26. (Curses!)

Actually, at this point in the draft you could already feel the thinness of the AL-Only format... Since my last pick Prince Fielder, Brian Dozier, David Ortiz, Evan Longoria, J.D. Martinez, and Yoenis Cespedes were all taken.  As late 2nd's and early 3rd's those picks seem awfully rich, but ya gotta do what ya gotta do.  I was pleasantly surprised to still see Carlos Santana for me at #28.  In CBS leagues he qualifies all over the place: C, 1B, 3B, and CI.  He had a slow start last year bouncing around, but as soon as he settled into the 1B gig his production was strong the rest of the way.

Another value at pick #33 was Albert Pujols.  It's more than reminiscing about all of the good times we used to have.  Phat Albert was quietly really quite good last year.  Even though he is 35 now and gets more than his share of nagging injuries, his pure skill level is as high as anyone in baseball.  I believe that in the 4th round I'm paying at or near his floor.

The funny thing at this point was that I was adhering to some of my strategy at the expense of other parts.  I took an OF in the 1st round but no more in the next three picks and I'm clearly loaded at CI with zero MI's.  Plus no pitching yet.  I am accumulating value, though... and Santana can be my catcher with Donaldson at 3B and Pujols at 1B.

There were 14 picks before I would select again, with some interesting names. Four closers, four starters, Danny Santana, Kole Calhoun,  Brandon Moss... plus a couple I like there in Kyle Seager and Pablo Sandoval.  At #48 I was in the market for my second OF and took Alex Gordon, which I feel like was good value again.  At this pick I was considering Carlos Carrasco and hoped he would slip to #53.

No such luck.  I took Sonny Gray.  Holding my breath there, but the pitching was starting to go.

It was thinning out fast...  I took Mookie Betts as a 2B, hoping he has a regular job and knowing I can use him in the OF if I get another 2B later.  Then Anibal Sanchez, who was good value at #73.  The next two picks would be similar with Shin-Soo Choo (more value, I hope) and Chris Archer.

So, ten rounds in now and I'm not really feeling all that great even though I do have three or four of my outfielders, three starters (even though they aren't my favorites), and I'm all stocked up at corner infield, plus a top catching option if needed as such.

At this point I'm still looking for value but I need middle infielders desperately as well as saves.  Otherwise, not too bad.

In round 11 I was hoping for Xander Bogaerts, but he went one pick before me.  I looked at my sheet and the best value was Brian McCann.  I was surprised he lasted that long and figured everyone was de-valuing catchers in this league.  Well, I can play Santana in five different slots and it is a luxury to carry two good catchers so I took McCann.

Round 12 brought Neftali Feliz.  I don't love him, but he seems to be healthy now and he also seems to have the job.  With all of the closers that went off in the 4th and 5th rounds this seemed like good value.

I followed up this one with Joakim Soria in the 13th, who I expect to get the job any day now.

The 14th round brought a pretty steady contributor in steals with a solid BA in Rajai Davis.  OF #4 (or #5), check!  I felt good about that pick at this point.

Looking at the board there had been eight shortstops taken so far, so I felt like it was between me and one other player for J.J. Hardy and even if he was gone I could deal with Brad Miller.  Well, in the next 14 picks they both went.  Ugh.  Worst pick of the draft for me was Josh Rutledge as my SS.  In round 15.  It was a desperation pick even though he does have upside.  These lines are long for middle infielders.

It was really getting thin at this point, and my next three were Jesse Hahn (upside, good park factor), C.J. Cron (crushing it, good AB's with Hamilton out), and Omar Infante (if he hits I can bump Betts to the OF).

Wade Davis in the 19th and Danny Farquhar in the 20th will be solid contributors for me and might vulture some wins and saves while striking out more than their share per IP.

In the 21st round I felt like I still needed another SP but I was eyeing another MI.  Jonathan Schoop was taken so I queued up Didi Gregorius.  He went the pick before me.  Okay, outfielder?  No, Seth Smith and Matt Joyce just went... Starter?  Miguel Gonzalez is gone, too.  Ugly situation.  I like upside and park factor, so I went with the aforementioned Graveman.  I think he's got the job and I think he'll be solid, especially at home.

Long lines for guys with playing time.  Long lines.  James Jones and his 27 steals (with only 1 CS) in just 312 AB's last year, went to me next.  David Murphy was my next pick, and he is likely a starter in Cleveland and surprisingly not too terrible...  Playing Time + Average Stats = Value.

I then took Eric Sogard, who is terrible, but he plays and qualifies at both MI positions.  Don't judge me.  Long lines!

Rickie Weeks is an upside lottery ticket play in the 25th round.  He was pretty good last year and if he finds a way to get AB's he'll have sensational value at this pick.  There are plenty of trade rumors since the M's don't really need him.

My penultimate pick was Craig Gentry, who is platooning with Sam Fuld and I don't believe in Sam Fuld.  Okay I don't believe in Gentry either, but I like him a whole lot more than Fuld.

Last pick was another setup guy - Edward Mujica.  He had a neck issue last year plus issues dealing with the transition to the AL.  Nevertheless, he still got 8 saves.  And do you remember how great he was before last year?  Pretty great.  If he's healthy he is the next closer in Boston should Koji bow to Father Time.... That, or he could be traded.  There have been rumors... So he could be closing somewhere else.  Not a bad gamble in the last round.

So, there it is.  My OF is pretty strong, my corners and catchers are stupendous, and my RP situation is pretty good for my low investment.

I feel like the rotation is a patchwork of guys I don't normally take, but there is a lot of upside there:  Sonny Gray, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Archer, Jesse Hahn, and even Kendall Graveman.  I must love park factor because I took almost all of the Oakland staff.  Wins might be an issue.

However, backing up those guys in the ratios and K's are Davis, Farquhar, Feliz, Soria, and Mujica.  I think that is a strong supplementary crew.

The middle infield is a train wreck on this team.  Mookie Betts might be without a position, and if that is the case it's even worse.  Josh Rutledge is my SS and Omar Infante is the MI.  Ew.  At least I've got Eric Sogard and Rickie Weeks on my bench, so you know, there's that.  Horrendous.  My only hope here is that the composite BA can stay above .270 and playing time is high enough that the counting stats remain at an average level... and those things can happen.  It is important to understand the downside risk in the areas that you de-prioritize so even if there isn't much ceiling the floor isn't too low either.  Then, your areas of strength can be free to carry you to victory.

Knock Knock.
...who's there?

Sogard.
...Sogard who?

There is no punch line.

Thank you, folks... I'll be here all week.

Fantasy Baseball Insiders League: Strategy

Have you ever been in a situation like a business conference or a big school function, or even something like what you thought was a costume party, where you thought you had to get all dressed up... but when you get to the event everyone is wearing jeans and t-shirts?  You get dressed to the nines in your Italian suit and perfect tie, or if it's October, maybe you absolutely crush it on your zombie Homer Simpson costume.  Either way, you're feeling pretty good.

All decked out, walking into the event... Then you see the sea of denim.  Your over-inflated opinion of yourself springs a leak and withers to the ground.

It's kind of like after one of those 'experts' drafts that take place five weeks before the season.  You (and by that I mean "me") add up the projected stats from all of your picks and it turns out that if you had this team last year, you would have finished in first place in nine categories!  Amazing!  Yeah, over-inflated.

Nevertheless, let's take a look and I'll explain my rationale and how I got all Larry Schechter on these fools.

I had the 3rd pick and hoped for McCutchen since Scott White (@CBSScottWhite) ranked Miggy #2.  Unfortunately

The Curious Case of Jay Cutler

My family has a three year old beagle named Norm.  Norm is an amazing dog and he fits the personality of our family perfectly...  Maybe too perfectly.  He gets excited easily, he's full of life, has lots of fun, and treats visitors to our home with all the love in his heart.

But even after all of this time you'd think a simple dog wouldn't still be able to surprise us, but he does.  You'd think that you'd know this beast by now, but he keeps coming up with new tricks like figuring out how to get inside the trashcan lid.  Or playing with a treat like it's a toy instead of eating it.

Sometimes Norm is crazy.  Sometimes he's laid back and chill.  Sometimes he follows us around the house.  Sometimes he can't be bothered.

It's the same with Jay Cutler.  We should know what we have in Cutler by now, but I don't think we do.  He just turned 30 years old and he's entering his eighth year in the league.  He's even had a quarterback rating between 85 and 88 for five of his seven years.  The other two years weren't that far out of whack with a 76 and an 81.

So, why can't we trust him?  Because his other numbers have been all over the place.  In 2009 he led the league with 26 interceptions.  His 4.7% interception rate was the highest of his career, but most years he's around 3% or so.  He's good for about 16 picks, but there's always the chance he slings 26 again.

Touchdowns?  In his five full seasons he's had 19, 20, 23, 25, and 27.  And not in that order.  Which is it?  Will he throw 19 TD's and 26 INT's, or the other way around? 

If he gets you 27 TD's and 16 INT's then he's a fifth round pick.  It could happen.  It probably won't happen.  But it could happen.

Yardage is pretty similar.  In 2008 he threw for 282 yards per game, a number he has yet to come close to repeating.  In his other seasons he's ranged between 202 and 231.  The 202 was last year.  The 231 was two years ago.

His rushing capabilities are pretty solid, though... He'll get a little over 200 yards on the ground and probably one score.  That's good for about 2 points a week, which is nothing to write home about but it's better than the average pocket passer.

At the moment, Cutler is the 17th quarterback off the board.  He's being taken with the 128th pick on average, which is an 11th rounder in a 12-team draft. 

With quarterback guru Marc Trestman in town and an upgraded offensive line, we are seeing some of our 'green flags.'  Also, Alshon Jeffery is a year older and they added Martellus Bennett.  Brandon Marshall appears healthy as does Matt Forte.  The weapons are there for Cutler.

And, at the age of 30 he's still in the window of his 'prime profile.'  He's probably got one very strong season still in him, and this could be the year.

It seems like Cutler is a good gamble, especially in the 11th round.  Look, he could chase his tail all year or refuse to fetch your fantasy stats for you.  He might fall flat on his face, but he has as strong a chance to break out as any.

I'm looking for 3,920 passing yards, 25 TD's, 16 INT's, and 230 rushing yards with one score on the ground.  That's 15.9 points per week in a standard scoring league, which is pretty strong.  In my opinion there is more upside there than with some of the other names going near him in drafts.  With my QB2 I'd rather gamble on upside.

Super-Sleepers for your Fantasy Football Draft

In the “No Brainer” plan that I outline in my audio training series (“The Program”) as well as in my book (“Getting Started with FantasyFootball: From Zero to Legit in One Day”) I reserve the last round for what I call a ‘lottery ticket.’

There are several reasons why I am a proponent of this concept, so allow me to explain and then I’ll give you a full set of guys who could still be available to you in the last round.

Okay, here we go…  The conventional wisdom is

Fantasy Football: The Dream Draft

It's August 1st, and that means official fantasy football draft month is upon us.  I thought I might take a stab at what the perfect draft might look like and also a swing at the worst draft.

Here's what I'll do:  I'll look at the ADP listings over at Fantasy Football Calculator and make a selection from each set of 12.  So, I'll select the guy I like the best from #1-#12 and then the one I like the best from #13-#24, and so on.  I realize that this may leave me taking #1, #13, #25, etc... but I think that over the course of the draft it will all come out in the wash.  I'll also throw in my thoughts about why the guy I picked is the best value.

The assumption with this league is that there are two starting running backs, two at wide receiver, and one each everywhere else including flex.  It is also assumed here that flex is RB/WR/TE.

Okay?  Here we go:

1st Round - Adrian Peterson.  Okay, so he is everyone's #1 overall and I had to take him here.  My apologies for the boring pick.  You want non-boring?  Okay, in that case I'd take

Modifying "Back-to-Back Quarterback"

If you've read the book (click here to see it!) or you have been a student of my "Master's Degree in Fantasy Football" then you've heard me talk about the "Back-to-Back Quarterback" strategy.  I'll give you a quick recap and then we can start to color outside of the lines a bit with 2013 in mind.

In a nutshell, the idea is that quality running backs are a very scarce commodity and stud wide receivers are also relatively scarce.  At quarterback you tend to have a few top-end guys followed by a strong second tier, and then everyone else.  Quarterback is not as scarce as running back or wide receiver and is also heavily affected by matchups. 

Okay, so with all of that in mind, the "Back-to-Back Quarterback" strategy says to start your draft with three running backs and three wide receivers (in some order) in the first six rounds and then follow those picks with quarterbacks in both round seven and round eight.  The rationale is that you'll get two guys in the #8-#12 range as far as the pre-season rankings and then during the season you would roll with whomever has the better matchup that week.

The strategy gives you an automatic bye week replacement and insurance against injury.  If deployed properly, your two guys should perform at a level similar to a much higher-ranked guy (the #4 QB, maybe) since that guy gets played even when the matchups are unfavorable.  The best part?  You improved your roster with all of the early picks at running back and wide receiver.

That's a quick version of it... There is more to it, but that's the idea.

Cool, but can we modify the concept this year?  Should we even try to modify it?  Maybe.  I recently wrote an article in this space talking about how there are a lot of red flags for quarterbacks in the #3-#10 range and that there is a chance of guys in the #11-#24 (yes, as low as #24!) bumping up into the top 10 this year. 

In other words, you could possibly look back in five months and see Jay Cutler ranked higher than Russell Wilson for the season.  That's not so outlandish, right?  Take a look at Ryan, Stafford, Romo, Luck, Kaepernick, Wilson, Griffin, Brady, Peyton Manning, and Newton.  Those are the quarterbacks currently ranked from #3-#12 but I listed them in a random order to illustrate a point.  Those dudes could slot in this year in any order and I wouldn't be surprised.  (By the way, maybe this cements the value of Rodgers and Brees?  Not sure, but don't get distracted... We venture forth!)  Plus, I'm willing to bet that one of them slips pretty far in a 12-team league and two or three of them in a 10-teamer. 

And when I say "slip" I'm talking at least a couple of rounds past their ADP.  The idea is that all of your competitors will grab their QB in an early round and then not even think about a backup until the double-digit rounds... round 11, round 12, round 13.  Maybe later.

So, if the quarterbacks from #3 all the way to #24 have some unpredictability to them... let's get a little crazy.  Since they are so affected by matchup and running back and wide receiver are more valuable resources, would it be insane to take four running backs, four wide receivers, and a tight end in the first nine rounds?  What if you followed that up with three QB's in rounds 10, 11, and 12?

That really juices the value of your RB's and WR's while giving you even more flexibility and maneuverability at QB.  If picking the best matchup among two QB's in the #8-#12 range is a good strategy, isn't it even better to pick between three guys in the #11-#16 range? 

Well, maybe.  Maybe not.  It is worth a look, so let's dig into some potential draft picks with each version of this strategy.

With the original version you'd use round seven and round eight for QB's that look like this and then use rounds ten and eleven for a RB4 and a WR4 like this:

• QB1:  Andrew Luck
• QB2:  Eli Manning
• RB4:  Jonathan Franklin
• WR4:  Sidney Rice

With the modified version you'd have a RB4 in round seven, WR4 in round eight, and then QB's in rounds ten, eleven, and twelve.  So, what would you think of rolling with something like this:

• RB4:  Daryl Richardson
• WR4:  Stevie Johnson
• QB1:  Michael Vick
• QB2:  Ben Roethlisberger
• QB3:  Jay Cutler

That second group is just way better, right?  I love Andrew Luck this year and Eli is solid, but don't you think that most weeks there will be some fantastic matchup for one of your three alternatives in the second group?  But more importantly, the big thing here is that Richardson is way better than Franklin and Johnson is light years better than Rice.  If the combo of Vick/Ben/Cutler can produce as well as the combo of Luck/Eli than this strategy is a home run.

One obvious caveat is that you are using one more bench spot on a third QB, so there's less speculation on RB's and WR's.  Hopefully you won't need the extra speculation spot since you used rounds seven and eight on a RB and a WR and those positions are already upgraded.

Anyway, I'm always thinking of modifying the basic "No Brainer" draft strategy, especially with regard to the flux in rankings year to year.  This could be a nice way to do just that depending on league composition and the length of your bench.

You can also deploy this strategy on the fly.  Take a look at how many QB's are drafted in the first six rounds.  If you are already nine or ten deep I would say that means your competitors are investing fairly heavily in their QB1 so they may have a greater inclination to wait on their QB2.  As you go, you can get a feel for how long those second tier QB's will be hanging around, and adjust accordingly.

Aaron Hernandez: Released! Now what?

Yesterday we talked about the strategy associated with approaching the risk of both Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.  With Hernandez specifically, we said that if the competitors in your league are staying away you may have a great risk/reward type of gamble around the ninth round of your draft.

That is, if there is a decent chance he'll play.  But, what if you know he'll be out for an extended period?  How does that change the landscape in New England?

EDIT:  Breaking news, Brainiacs - Hernandez has been released by the Patriots.  So, the information below may be of increased interest to you now.  Who replaces Hernandez in an already depleted Pats offense??

For one, it amps up the 'reward' part of the equation for Gronk.  He is a monster to begin with, but if Hernandez is missing there is just a massive void to fill.

But, let's look deeper.  Hernandez tends to line up wide more often than a standard tight end.  Who is there on the roster that can be a big body either at tight end or split out wide?  Well, not much to write home about... but there are a few interesting names.

Michael Jenkins is on the roster right now and while he has had a career of failing to live up to expectations, he is experienced and he is big.  He's listed at 6'4" and 214 pounds.  While not as thick as Hernandez he is a little taller and could fill a similar role as a split end.  It's not perfect, but if I were in a very deep league I would take a look.  His ceiling is about 55 receptions for 700 yards and five touchdowns.  He is likely to get about two thirds of those numbers, so buyer beware.  That said, he's never played with a quarterback like Tom Brady before so it is within the realm of possibility that he bangs against those ceiling numbers and threatens to go past them.  Maybe he overcomes his career of under-performing and finally starts to put it all together.

Let's have a look at some of the other tight ends, because there are seven (7!) of them on the current roster... including a couple of familiar names.  Well, familiar names if you have been a serious fantasy player for a few years.  (And I do mean serious.)

You may remember Michael Hoomanawanui (wow, I actually spelled that without looking) from his brief flashes of brilliance in St. Louis.  He had a pre-season game in 2010 as a rookie where he caught four passes for 53 yards and two touchdowns.  Big and fast for his size, Hoomanawanui has good hands and a nose for the endzone.  He has a year in the New England offense under his belt and seems to be healthy.  Health issues have derailed him early in his career, so he could be primed to make some noise in his fourth year.  It's a serious longshot, but if Hernandez is out maybe they give Hoomanawanui a shot.

Okay, one more name to note: Daniel Fells.  He's about as big as Hoomanawanui but not nearly the athlete, plus at the age of 30 we pretty much know what to expect from Fells.  He doesn't have the upside of Hoomanawanui, but he also doesn't have the downside.  In a full-time role, Fells would likely go for about 35 receptions for 350 yards and maybe three touchdowns.  Maybe the Tom Brady factor improves those numbers a bit, but Fells isn't going to excite anyone.  Nevertheless, if Hernandez and Gronk are both out you could see Fells getting snaps and producing a solid yet unimpressive line.  If that is the case and you are scraping the bottom of the barrel, he'd get you a few points.  A predictable three-ish points with a chance at a TD is better than risking a zero.

From a fantasy perspective, we do hope we see a lot Hernandez and Gronkowski this year.  But, if we don't you could see Jenkins get some additional looks on the outside and one of Hoomanawanui or Fells seeing decent playing time at tight end.  They are longshot upside plays for deep leagues, but good names to know.

Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski

What to do, what to do?  It's hard to decipher the situation in the New England offense this year and how we should approach it from a fantasy football perspective.  I have some thoughts and strategic ways to approach the situation, so thank you for joining me here at the Brain.

I will make zero editorial comment on the current situation with Aaron Hernandez, but it is safe to say there is a lot going on.  The bottom line is that he might miss time this year.  He may also be distracted from his job while he is working.  Possibly both.  For fantasy he's just probably not someone you can trust since he could be in and out of the lineup.  These factors are killing his fantasy value on draft day.

So much so that there will be leagues where no one wants to gamble on Hernandez at all.  If that happens in your league, you could have yourself a buying opportunity.

Let's delve into the strategy.  For Hernandez or any other player with high-profile issues there is some percentage of fantasy players who have made up their mind to just stay away.  They aren't going to take the guy no matter what.  Maybe it's 30%.  Maybe 80%.  Whatever it is, there is a chance that all of the other owners in your league are in that percentage.  In other words, if half of all fantasy football managers are staying away from a particular player that does not mean that exactly six guys in a twelve team league are out on that player.  In one specific league it could be any number, maybe everyone.

So, if Hernandez is being valued as a seventh rounder (for example) due to his issues maybe that is where he is drafted.  Perhaps someone in your league is a believer and takes him in the sixth round.  But, what if he doesn't go in the eighth or even the ninth round?  When the ninth round rolls around you've got a guy sitting there with big risk but huge upside.  I mean, if he plays a significant part of the season he could be Tom Brady's top target, which is to say that he'll have tons of value.

The play here goes back to my '20/20 Vision' plan that I teach in "The Program."  I like to see 60% (three out of every five) of your draft picks to be solid, steady players and 20% (one of every five) of your draft picks as upside "sleeper" picks.  The remaining 20%?  Those guys should be the boom or bust types that can win a league for you.  Aaron Hernandez as late as the eighth or ninth round qualifies.  In a normal draft you want to try to get three of those guys throughout your picks, and Hernandez is a candidate.

And, so is Rob Gronkowski.  We all saw the damage he could do with his historic season in 2011.  His numbers in 2012 look like a significant reduction from the year before, but if you examine his per-game numbers they aren't far off of 2011 at all.

Check it out:

• 2011 : 16 games - 90 receptions (5.6/game) - 1,327 yards (83/game) - 17 TD (1.1/game)
• 2012 : 11 games - 55 receptions (5.0/game) - 790 yards (72/game) - 11 TD (1.0/game)

Sure, five surgeries in just the past year are cause for big concern.  Sure, he'll start the pre-season on the PUP list.  Okay, fine.  He's got some risk, but last year he was going in the first round of fantasy drafts all over the place due to 5.6 receptions for 83 yards and 1.1 TD's per game.  As banged up as he was last year he still got 5 receptions for 72 yards and 1.0 TD's per game.

Plus, the dude's still only 24 years old.  He might be getting better.

To put a finer point on it he scored about 20 points a week in PPR two years ago and still got you 18 points per week last year.  In standard leagues it was more like 15 points in 2011 and 13 last year.  So, can he do that again this year?  Absolutely.

And what if I told you his current ADP is in the fifth round?  Yes, please.

The great thing about Gronk is that his ADP (average draft position) probably won't improve, which means his value should remain.  There won't be a lot of news about him since he'll be on the pre-season PUP list and other players might actually pass him on the ADP list.

Even if he only plays 12 games this year, I'll take his 18 points per game in those and supplement with a Kyle Rudolph type of guy for the rest of the season.  Sounds like a solid strategy to me.

Okay, one last thought about the New England tight ends.  There are a lack of weapons for Tom Brady these days which means he may be forced to go to the tight ends.  Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Danny Woodhead left in free agency and have basically been replaced by Danny Amendola.  You'll also see more of Julian Edelman and Shane Vereen, but those guys were there last year.

You have got to conclude that the receiving situation is greatly downgraded in New England.  Look, Brady is a magnificent quarterback so he might be able to make a lot of chicken salad this year but the fact is that he's going to have to pull a lot of rabbits out of his hat to do so.

The tight ends will be leaned upon a lot in 2013.  When they are in uniform they will score buckets of fantasy points, so we hope they suit up more often than not.  There is a lot of profit potential within the uncertainty that these two guys represent.

Fantasy Football: Quarterback Position

There is a lot of sentiment about the depth at quarterback this year, and I agree.  However, as deep as it is it is also a minefield.

To wit, after the top two there are red flags all over the place.  There are very few "clean" quarterbacks even though there are a lot of really strong options.  In fact, you can list the top 25 guys and make a case that any of them could be an average fantasy quarterback for you.

Let's take a look at what I'm talking about and we'll try to delve into some strategy along the way:

1. Aaron Rodgers - The top guy.  No issues here.
2.  Drew Brees - Some concern about the WR corps, but really no issues here either.

Okay, number three?  Man, I don't know.  Manning, Brady, Newton... ugh.  Red flags galore.  Alright here we go:

3. Peyton Manning - My big concerns with Manning include his age, health, and playing outdoors in snow and thin air.  If he can stay healthy he could really do some damage with the weapons he has.
4. Cam Newton - New offensive coordinator and less of a zone read offense means that he will be asked to work more from the pocket and run less.  Good for his health, but is it good for fantasy points?
5. Tom Brady - He's starting to get up in years, but forget about that... My concern is his weapons.  Welker is gone and Amendola isn't much of a replacement.  Are Gronk and Hernandez out too?  Lloyd is gone, also.  Who is Brady throwing to?  Shane Vereen?
6.  Matthew Stafford - Stafford has led the league in pass attempts for two years in a row.  That may go down this year, but I believe his TD's will go up.  They went from 41 down to 20 last year, so I'll take the average this year - 30.  Should be a nice value.
7.  Matt Ryan - The issue here is that he cooled off late last year.  He might also be a nice value because of it.  He's gotten better for four years in a row.  The sneaky thing with Ryan is that Steven Jackson is standing behind him now and Jackson can really, really catch a pass.  Great weapons for Ryan.
8.  Andrew Luck - Nice value, too.  There seems to be a nice pocket here with Stafford, Ryan, and Luck.  I'd take any of them at their ADP over Brady, Newton, or Manning at theirs.  He is a second year guy, so there may be a sophomore slump... but there isn't really an indication of that.  Is TY Hilton for real?  Does Reggie Wayne have another big year in him?
9.  Robert Griffin III - Can he stay healthy?  Is he healthy now?
10.  Colin Kaepernick - Can he stay healthy?  Are they going to try to keep him in the pocket more this year?  Did he catch lightning in a bottle last year or is this legit?
11.  Tony Romo - We're talking about Romo way down at #11?  He'll put up numbers for you, folks.  He might be an over-rated real life QB, but in fantasy he's under-rated.
12.  Russell Wilson - Small and still unproven, in my mind.  Those are the red flags, but he sure looked good when he became the starter last year didn't he?

At this point it gets really interesting...  We've yet to mention a lot of familiar names: Rivers, Roethlisberger, Cutler, Vick, Eli, Schaub, Flacco, and Palmer.  Those guys are #13 through #20.  Think about that for a moment.  If you are in a 10-team league you'll get one of those guys as a backup even if you wait forever.

The next few have upside too:  Dalton, Alex Smith, Freeman, Bradford, and Weeden.  Now make no mistake, those guys have big flaws.  However, they also have significant upside and they are all ranked in the 20's.

Dalton has A.J. Green.  'Nuff said.

Smith was one of the leaders in quarterback rating when he was replaced last year.  Now, he's got Andy Reid, Dwayne Bowe, and Jamaal Charles.

Freeman equals upside plus risk.  The range of possibilities with this guy is wider than anyone in the league.  He could be anywhere from the sixth-ranked fantasy quarterback all the way down to #30.  He does have Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin.  Defenses will be stacking the box to stop Martin.  Plus, Freeman can run when he has to.

Bradford is a former #1 overall draft pick and he's got new weapons.  We'll see.  Big risk, but big upside.

Weeden?  Okay, hear me out.  Norv Turner is his offensive coordinator now and he's a great one.  Weeden has had a full off-season, he's not a rookie anymore, and the one strength he has (the power arm) matches up perfectly to what the Norv-fense requires.  If you blend last year's rookie performance with one or two deep balls per game could you see an extra 80 yards per game and another TD?  Could be.

So, we just outlined depth at quarterback through 25 guys.  That is sick depth, which is great.  But listen, after Rodgers and Brees it gets weird.  I have long been a proponent of the Back-to-Back Quarterback strategy where you select QB's in both round seven and eight.  If you did that, you might end up with Luck and Romo.  Or maybe Stafford and Kaepernick.  Perhaps Ryan and Griffin?

In my mind that is way better than taking Brees in the top 15 picks and then grabbing a Joe Flacco late.  I'd rather play the matchups with my QB's, because when you do that you maximize value.  Even better though, are all of the RB's and WR's you scoop up with your first six picks.  Plus, you've got a built-in bye week replacement.  Besides, you may hit a home run with one of the two guys you take.  Maybe Matthew Stafford give you 2011 stats?  Maybe Kaepernick is for real?  Could Luck make an MVP run?  Maybe. 

I'll take my chances with two of those guys instead of Newton, Manning, and Brady.

Springs Stats Mean Nuthin'

The conventional wisdom of the experts is to ignore statistics of Spring Training.  There is a kernel of truth to it, which I will explain, but I believe there are a few compelling reasons why you should pay attention to ST stats.

There are, in my view, three reasons why people oppose any reliance on ST stats: (1) Small number of at bats and innings pitched; (2) Varying levels of competition; and, (3) Different stages of preparedness.  These are all absolutely valid.

The number of at bats and the number of innings pitched in the Spring are just too small to go crazy over.  Matt Wieters is hitting over .400 this Spring with nice power.  He didn't turn into Ted Williams over the winter, folks.

It's also true that you don't know what level of competition these stats are coming against.  Jason Castro has six Spring Training home runs, which is great.  But, did he hit them off of Justin Verlander or did they come off of the "organizational depth" type of guys brought over from the rookie camp to throw an inning or two?  The fact that

FBIL Expert League Draft

Monday night was the Fantasy Baseball Insiders League draft and I was fortunate enough to be included in the league among some luminaries in the fantasy baseball world.  My man Jeff Boggis of Fantasy Sports Empires has launched a site that will contain updates on the league as the season progresses, which should be a lot of fun.  I'll include the link at the bottom so you can check in on us.

It is a 12-team mixed league with 29 roster slots.  Starting positions include two catchers, five outfielders, a corner infielder, and a middle infielder, plus all of the other usual suspects.

Here at the Brain we focus on strategy and tactics, so I'd like to give you my thoughts in that regard going into this draft.  I'll tell you about the actual players in a minute and how they hopefully fit into the strategy as well as the spots where I didn't hit the goal.  I definitely reached in a few rounds with what seemed like a very fast timer.  It always seemed like I was under 30 seconds to go with my picks, and even though I got them all in on time there were several rounds where I grabbed someone from my queue a round or two early.  I figured it was better to reach a little on a guy I like than to let the auto-pick give me the best available player.

Lots and lots of detailed strategy and analysis after the break...

Jeff Keppinger Won't Hurt You

Okay, folks... The topic today is something we covered last year, but I think it is important, so Ima gonna hit it again.

In my FSIC AL-Only league draft that I wrote about recently I took Jeff Keppinger in the 19th round.  To me, Keppinger is the poster child for a player who "isn't going to hurt you."  At least that's what they say.

But what are people really saying there?

What they are saying is that he'll hit for average but not do anything else.  In other words, when people talk about a player who isn't going to hurt you they are usually talking about a player who does well in qualitative stats (batting average, ERA, WHIP) but doesn't contribute elsewhere.  I'm not sure exactly why this is so, but I do know that nothing hurts quite so much as seeing one of your players go 0 for 6 with zero runs, RBI, or stolen bases.  Keppinger will pretty much never do that to you.

However...

FSIC AL-Only Draft Strategy

What's up, Brainiacs!  Believe it or not, we have already entered drafting season in fantasy baseball.  This past Sunday the FSIC guys conducted the 2013 AL-Only draft and I was honored to be included once again this year.

Like last year, there were some snafus with the drafting software...  but it turned out just fine.  In 2012 I had the wheel pick at the end of the first round and auto-drafted Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez even though I didn't want to take pitching that early.  After cashing in on a handful of great starts by King Felix, I parlayed him into Mark Teixeria, Jose Valverde, Dayan Viciedo, and a couple of other roster improvements.  It may not sound like a lot, but my 1B situation was atrocious and I had zero closers plus a couple of part-timers in the OF.  It worked out very well, and I was able to finish in a respectable 6th place (and #3 in pitching even without most of Felix's season).

That's nice and all for my first year in a league of this caliber, but it left me wanting more.  The competition is fierce, but I'd like to see if I can push for the title in year two.

I devised a strategy for this league and was able to stick to it for the most part.  In a league like this, the rarest commodity is typically the middle infield slot (specifically MI, not SS or 2B as much) and the outfield.  I made up my mind to prioritize outfielders, but not until I had my three middle infield slots filled.  That meant I was de-prioritizing pitching and some of the corner infield slots, and I was okay with that.

Let's have a look at each position and how I addressed them:

First Base Strategy: Rizzo, Davis, Hosmer, Freeman

I've been thinking about position scarcity and the quality of 2nd level and 3rd level options at different positions.  So, if you will permit me, I'd like to think out loud for a little while and share with you a strategy I've been noodling.

Regarding position scarcity, my feelings about second base are well documented at this point.  However, to recap... It's Robinson Cano or bust for me.  He is a super stud with every "green flag" (we talk about those a lot around here - the opposite of red flags) imaginable.  After Cano, there are question marks everywhere.  Everywhere, folks.  Second base is a wasteland.  You can make yourself optimistic about Kipnis or Kendrick or someone else, but the bottom line is that even if you hit on one of them and they deliver at their ceiling they are nowhere near Cano's likely projection.

Brett Lawrie, Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana

What do Brett Lawrie, Eric Hosmer, and Carlos Santana all have in common?  They all burst onto the scene in 2011, where high draft picks in 2012, and disappointed fantasy owners everywhere.

What can we learn from this?  Track record, people.  You have to look at what they've done over the course of their career and not take a small number of at bats as proof of what they will do going forward.

Brett Lawrie only had 150 AB's in the big leagues in 2011, but he made the most of them.  He had an OPS of .953 which was good enough for an OPS+ of 153.  In addition he tallied 7 stolen bases, and given a full season, that rate would look like nearly 30 for the year.  All of this at third base?  Yes, please!  Imagine what he would do in that lineup, in that ballpark, for more than 500 AB's!

We should have seen it coming because his minor league numbers were actually significantly worse than what he did in the bigs in those 150 AB's.  In the minors he had a career OPS of just .850, which was even buoyed up significantly by more than 22% of those minor league at bats coming in Las Vegas, an extremely hitter-friendly environment.  The speed could be legit with 62 bags in 1282 minor league AB's, but he was caught 28 times so his success rate has not been great.

The Backup Quarterback

Just a quick thought about the backup quarterback.  We've been over the various approaches to the quarterback position in this space quite a bit, so I won't rehash too much here.  But, I do have one additional wrinkle for you.

And, I realize that football season is over.  The flood of baseball will continue shortly, my friends... promise.

With the quarterback position I am an advocate of using back-to-back picks at QB in the 5th-7th round.  I've been over the reasons why a few times here, but the bottom line is that you cover contingencies for injuries, bye weeks, and (most importantly) duds.  Chances are very good in that range that you will end up with at least one stellar quarterback.  This year it may have been someone like Robert Griffin III or Peyton Manning.

Now then, the other option is to use a top pick on a known quantity - Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady.  If you do that, you should be all set other than the bye week for the full year.  No fuss, no muss.  This option gives you virtually guaranteed production as long as there is no major injury, so it can be very effective.  I mean, would you have rather drafted Drew Brees or Chris Johnson in 2012?

Right... But what do you do about the QB2 slot?  Do you even draft one?  Conventional wisdom seems to be shifting to say that you should use that roster slot to take a flier on another mid-round running back instead of wasting room on your roster with a guy that will never play.  In other words, in 2012 would you rather have Brees and Griffin or Brees and a chance at a running back that might be someone like either Donald Brown or Stevan Ridley?  Hit or miss.

Okay, granted that QB2 could have been Philip Rivers or Jay Cutler, but I would contend that your 7th or 8th round pick has a higher chance to hit on a quarterback than a running back... Besides, your bench should be full of lottery ticket running backs, so why not use that slot on a QB2 who has better odds of being a stud?

The main reason why not, as noted, is that that guy probably won't play for you more than once and we always need all the running backs we can get.  But think about what would happen if you landed Griffin or Manning instead of a shot at one more mid-round RB.  Having two of the top eight (for example) quarterbacks gives you tremendous bargaining power as the trading deadline approaches.  What do you think that Philip Rivers owner would give you for RGIII?  Certainly something way better than the BenJarvus Green-Ellis that you may have pulled, even if you hit on that mid-round running back pick.

Just some thoughts, folks.... I'm still noodling football even though I'm diving head-first into baseball.  Pitchers and catchers in less than a week!

Fantasy Baseball #1 Overall: Robinson Cano. Really.

Alright folks, this is going to be a little controversial so I thought I'd get in front of the wave of public anger that it is sure to invoke.  I'm ranking Robinson Cano #1 overall this year.

Not Mike Trout!?  Not Ryan Braun!?  What about Miguel Cabrera for goodness sake!?!?

Okay, let's back up a bit.  Here are the main criteria that I use to evaluate players:

• Consistency, track record
• Health history
• Park factor 
• Position scarcity
• Stage of career
• Surrounding lineup

Those are listed pretty much in the order of importance, though I will admit to bumping up position scarcity more often than I should.  Many experts don't see position scarcity as a very important factor when evaluating players.  They look only at raw statistics since all you are trying to do is compile the most statistics to win your league.

Fair enough, but I contend that the outfielder I will grab in the 2nd or 3rd round to pair with Cano will be a lot closer to the outfielder that I left on the board than any second baseman I would take to pair with that top outfielder.  The scarcity at 2B this year is really crazy, folks.  I just don't want to spend a 2nd or 3rd rounder on Ian Kinsler or Dustin Pedroia if I don't have to.  And after that it just falls off a cliff (though I do like Jason Kipnis and I think that Howard Kendrick will be a good value this year).

At outfielder, if you don't get Braun you can target guys like Jason Heyward, Adam Jones, Justin Upton, or Jay Bruce in the next several rounds.  There's a strong dropoff there, but not like the one at second base.  What I'm saying is that I'd rather have Cano and Heyward than Braun and Kinsler.

Now, a caveat.  If you pass up Trout in favor of Cano you are leaving a ton of stolen bases out of your squad's projection.  Historically SB's are coming from the middle infield and one of your outfielders, so you are going to have to supplement Cano with someone like Jose Reyes.  Keep that in mind.

I think with Cano you will get an average around .315 with about 30 HR's and more than 110 RBI.  He'll still give you solid runs at 2B (100?) and contribute a small number of SB's.  Those numbers are insane for 2B, but at this stage of his career he is a proven commodity that you can trust.

Which leads me to those other bullet points I listed.  Track record?  Excellent.  Healthy?  Absolutely.  Park factor?  One of the best (plus some great ones in-division).  Stage of career?  At 30 years old, he's in his prime.  Surrounding lineup?  I have my doubts about the average age on this team, but listen, it's the Yankees.

Add all of that up and throw in the competitive advantage you get at 2B versus your entire league and you have my #1 player for 2013.

I've got Cabrera #2.  He won the Triple Crown last year and plays third base, which is also a scarce position.  Yes, I will gladly take him if Cano is gone.  He can be a knucklehead, but even with a bit of regression his numbers are great across the board at 3B.

Braun?  Alleged PED issues from 2012 aside, this dude is a complete stud.  I see a regression in HR's, but he'll be in the neighborhood of 30/30 while hitting around .315 with about 220 in the R&R (Runs and RBI) stats.  Simply stated, he's better than Cano but being an outfielder drops him to #3.  I'd rather have the 2B or 3B and take my chances later at OF.  By the way, I'm not saying OF'ers are plentiful.  Far from it (especially if you start five).  I just think at the top of the draft where we are splitting hairs something like position scarcity can be the deciding factor.

Now Trout.  I don't believe he is in the same conversation as the first three and I'll explain why.  I do think his average is very much legit and that he'll hit around .320.  Also, the speed is real, even though his success rate was a bit higher last year than in the minors.  I've got him for 40-45 bags this year, and with that comes runs which ought to actually increase.  So, maybe around 135 runs?  The problem is the power surge we saw last year.  He hit 30 HR's with one coming every 18.6 AB's.  In the minors (including the lower levels) he only hit 23 in 1,117 AB's.  One HR every 48.6 AB's.  So, I see the HR's dropping significantly and with it I see his RBI cratering as well.  Honestly, 18 HR and 65 RBI seems generous when you look at what he did in the minors and his likely leadoff position in the order.  Besides everyone is doing their homework on him now.  He's a marked man.

What Mike Trout did in 2012 was the most amazing thing in the Internet era this side of Barry Bonds.  His performance was historic and breathtaking.  I still have him in the top 10, I just can't recommend him top 5 because I don't believe he can repeat it.  Especially the HR and RBI.

100% Running Back Bench

With the fantasy football season over, I've been doing some thinking about the draft and the waiver wire and how teams evolve throughout the year.

Doesn't it seem like wide receivers and tight ends can emerge from out of thin air?  TY Hilton and Cecil Shorts?  Kyle Rudolph and Brandon Myers?  The great proven commodities tend to deliver unless injured, but the mid-round plays aren't usually any better than the guys you get off the wire.

It's pretty much the same with kickers and defenses, but we don't need to really spend any time there.

But what about quarterbacks and running backs?  Okay, quarterbacks first.  The top end QB's tend to deliver and some of the mid-round guys in any given season will explode for great seasons.  The bottom 1/3 (maybe close to 1/2) of starting NFL QB's are usually about what we expect.  So, on draft day it's best to either invest in a super stud like Drew Brees or drop two mid-round picks on the Peyton Manning's and Robert Griffin III's of the world.  If you go for the latter, I suggest back-to-back picks in the 5th-7th rounds.  If you had employed this sort of strategy in 2012, you probably would have ended up with two of:  Manning, Manning, Griffin, Cutler, and Roethlisberger.  Something like that.  Obviously, Eli and Cutler weren't so good and Rothlisberger was only good when healthy... but Peyton and Griffin were gold.  Taking a shot on any two of those guys in just about any year is a great way to go.  The best part of this strategy?  Your first 4 or 5 picks were spent on studs at RB and WR.

That has typically been my M.O., but I'm thinking about a new way. Let's think for a second about running backs.  They are a little more dependable early in the draft, but frankly not that much more.  Your mid-round picks might deliver strong seasons for you 40% of the time and your early-round picks maybe 60% of the time.  The other big thing with RB's is that they are the rarest of all commodities in fantasy football.  (Real quick breakdown - Let's say for example that you have a 12-team league that starts two RB's and a flex.  That league will be starting approximately 30 RB's per week.  There are 32 teams in the NFL and they typically only have one main fantasy-worthy RB each.  In bye weeks there are only 28 teams playing.  There are eight bye weeks in the fantasy regular season.  There's just not enough of the RB resource available, which explains why people give starts to bad RB's and backup RB's all the time.)

Okay, so let's go back to the new concept.  Let's say for a moment that you get Drew Brees in round 1 of a 16-round draft.  Let's also say for a moment that you agree with the concept that stud WR's and TE's will deliver and other good ones will emerge from nowhere during the season.  Further, let's say that you agree with the concept that stud RB's are somewhat unpredictable and mid-round RB's are often really good values.  With all of that in mind, I present the 100% RB Bench.

Here's what you do...  Brees in round one.  You draft two WR's and one TE at some point in the first five rounds.  So, after five rounds you have one of the top QB's, two very strong WR's, a solid and predictable TE, plus one strong RB (probably from the 3rd round, maybe 4th).  In 2012 it might have been Brees, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Reggie Bush, and Owen Daniels.  Look, hindsight is 20/20... but that is the sort of thing I would have done with this strategy last year.

In round 15 you get the kicker you want.  In round 14 you get a top 6 defense.  And, the big thing...  In rounds six through 13 plus round 16 you draft all running backs.  So, yes, 16 rounds and ten running backs.  If you had done this in 2012 you would have had all sorts of guys like Shonn Greene, Stevan Ridley, and C.J. Spiller.  The problem is that you would have gotten a lot of guys like Jonathan Stewart and Donald Brown too.  It's not a fully-baked concept, but I wanted to share some of the things I've been noodling on.

I think at this point that it would still be a better option to do more of a hybrid approach.  If in 2013 you took Ray Rice in round one and you used your 6th and 7th round picks on Tony Romo and Andrew Luck you would be better off.  Let's say you took A.J. Green in round two, Dez Bryant in round three, Aaron Hernandez in round four, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis in round five.  Then, seven of your last nine picks are all RB's to pair with Rice and BJGE.  That is the sort of draft that could really happen this August and it is the sort of squad that would win a championship.  The trick with this roster is to jettison under-peforming RB's for emerging receivers just before the bye weeks start.  It gives you a few games to evaluate what is happening with these mid-round RB's.  I like the sound of that draft a lot.

Just some thoughts about football before we turn our focus to baseball.  Pitchers and catchers in like five weeks, people!

Insurance for Your Small Investments

Traditionally the concept of a "handcuff" is for protecting a high-investment resource with their clear-cut quality backup.  It usually refers to running backs, though in this space we did recently explore the idea of handcuffing quarterbacks.  Check it out here.

Like any year, there are a ton of running back handcuffs:  Arian Foster and Ben Tate is the most obvious since Foster is the typical #1 overall and Tate is a fantastic backup.  A close second is Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings.  MoJo might not even start the season and Jennings has looked great.  If you invest in Ahmad Bradshaw you are going to want David Wilson.  Matt Forte owners will want Michael Bush.  For LeSean McCoy it's probably Dion Lewis and Ray Rice has rookie Bernard Pierce.

The point of the handcuff is to lock up one of your RB slots so that you know that you have the full season taken care of in that starting role even if injuries hit.

But let me ask you a question: What do you do if you go with a quarterback or wide receiver in the first round and then follow that up with a tight end or receiver in the second?  You're not really going to be able to handcuff Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham.  Should you spend a draft pick handcuffing Stevan Ridley?  Maybe... but is it Shane Vereen?  I guess so, but can that be predicted very reliably?  It just doesn't really work out as well... but I have another idea for you.

For the record, I'm of the mind that the great teams this year will take running backs early... but if you don't go that way, why not wait even longer on running backs and get a cheap starter who has a clear backup?

For example, what will Kevin Smith and Mikel LeShoure cost you?  How about Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman?  There aren't a lot of options with this tactic, but another might be BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Bernard Scott.  Another might be Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas.

When you get a combo like this in combination with a top running back you can really lock down your RB2 slot for the year.  It will make filling out your starting roster a lot easier and alleviate the risk associated with taking some of these guys.  You may not want to take Kevin Smith, but if you also have LeShoure you've got to think that one of those guys will be healthy and productive most of the time.  That takes the pressure off of filling that RB2 slot.

Taking the Best Player Available

A lot of sites (most, really) have a "Top 300" or "Top 200" type of list.  This lists players in order of value according to their experts.  There are reasons why people like to see this - maybe they don't do much in the way of value based drafting (as we teach in "The Program") or they just want to quickly compare relative values across positions.

The problem is that a fantasy football draft doesn't work that way, especially after the first 6 or 7 rounds.  You can't just take the next guy on the list because you are building a roster that can compete for the championship, not just the best collection of names.

Also, you're going to want to shift gears a lot in a draft between proven, solid performers and big time upside picks.  If you don't take a few shots on upside plays, you will be putting your chances of winning the league mostly in the hands of lady luck.  But, if you gamble a little (not too much) and you hit on half of those picks you'll be giving yourself a chance to win the league on the merit of your own skill.

Furthermore, let's think logically about those Top 300 lists.  When the experts are writing those lists what they do is to create sub-lists for positions and then mash them together.  That leaves you with clumps of players from similar positions, especially as you start to get into the middle rounds.  So, for example, it may be the case that there are receivers ranked from #84 through #89.  What the expert is saying is that they are basically all the same.  If there is a running back at #90 and then a gap until #102 until the next RB, you may be better off drafting the RB listed at #90 rather than the WR at #84.  Why?  Because the value of the next WR you get should be in that range from #84-#89, but the next RB is ranked 12 spots lower and is probably not in the same class as Mr. #90.

Another thing, primarily with regard to quarterbacks.  Let's say you are in a 10-team league.  Let's say in that league that QB's ranked from #7 to #10 are all grouped together as about 5th round picks.  If the first three go off the board in the 5th, you could be feeling like you really need to draft that 10th QB.  The bottom line, though, is that you can wait because everyone else has their starter and QB #10 will probably still be there for you in the 7th round.  There are values for you at RB and WR there since everyone else has been focusing on QB's.

Just a few thoughts for you.  We have a lot more to share, so please check out our training package so you can discover the fantasy greatness that is within you!