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Monday, September 10, 2012

Stephen Hill – New Deep Sleeper?

I posted this over on www.fantasyknuckleheads.com yesterday morning around 10:30...  I must be some kind of Nostradamus.
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Okay, so I picked my deep sleeper a while back but it seems that I need a new one.  It has become fashionable to get on the Greg Olsen bandwagon lately.  Just a couple of weeks ago he was going in the 14th round of drafts, if he was drafted at all.  Now?  I've seen him go as early as the 8th (eighth?!) round.  What's up with that?  I love Olsen as a sleeper this year for lots of reasons, but I don't think he can be my official 'deep' sleeper anymore.

By the way, before I talk about why I simultaneously hate and love Stephen Hill, let me explain the Olsen thing.  Early in his career in Chicago he showed flashes of his ability, but then he got Mike Martz as an offensive coordinator and Martz doesn't feature the tight end.  Last year he moved on to the Carolina Panthers with new Offensive Coordinator Rob Chudzinski.  Chudzinski was the OC at The University of Miami when Kellen Winslow II was there, but more importantly he made a name for himself in San Diego as the Tight Ends coach when Antonio Gates emerged.  So, Olsen was in Carolina for the first year last year but he had a rookie quarterback and more importantly had to share targets with Jeremy Shockey.  Cam Newton is no longer a rookie (as if he played like one last year anyway) and Shockey is gone.  Plus, Newton doesn't really have a lot of weapons there other than Steve Smith, who is another year older after his renaissance last year.

So, add all of that up and I think Olsen is a Top 10 tight end.

Okay, now to Stephen Hill.  He wasn't drafted in hardly any leagues this year.  His ownership percentage is around 2%.  If you look up his ADP, you don't find it.  That qualifies as deep sleeper.

Now then, I mentioned simultaneously loving and hating him.  Yep.  He's terrible.  And, he's awesome.



He's a rookie, he's got two average QB's in a timeshare throwing to him, he drops a lot of passes, he needs time to get up to speed, for all of his size and strength he doesn't get off the line well, he's mostly a deep threat so he isn't active underneath.

Okay, that's terrible.  Nevertheless, he wouldn't be a deep sleeper if there weren't a lot of reasons to dislike him.

However, average quarterbacks need to get their average statistics somewhere.  And, I ask you, who is going to catch balls for the Jets?  I predict that this dude will be their top target because, frankly, he has to be.  He's 6'4" and runs a 4.36 (with rumors of a 4.28!).  Last year in college he averaged almost 30 yards a catch.

His typical line this year will be something like 3 for 70 and a touchdown.  Something like that.  I'll take it for an undrafted pickup...  And, heck, maybe he's got even more.  Maybe he's Braylon Edwards, maybe he's Demaryius Thomas, maybe he's Arrelius Benn.

One of those, but that's why he's a deeeeeep sleeper.