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Monday, February 27, 2012

Conventional Wisdom

Over the weekend I listened to a podcast where they were literally arguing about whether you can, in fact, lose your league in the first round of your draft.  They then proceeded to argue about whether the opposite was true and that you could actually win your league in the first round.

Hogwash.  But people talk about it all of the time, so there has to be some truth to it right?  This blog is all about teaching you how to think for yourself in fantasy sports and how to gain a competitive advantage over the other players in your league.  So, when you start to hear the same sayings and assumed concepts over and over again, you absolutely have to challenge them.

And I'm not talking about merely looking at the validity of the concept, I mean everything.  Who is sending the message?  Why are they sending this message?  Are they intelligent enough to evaluate the concept before they say it or are they just taking someone else's thoughts and parroting them back to their audience?

Why does everyone say that you can't win your league in the first round but you sure can lose it?  Maybe because it sounds smart and has a kernel of truth.  Maybe because everyone has been burned on a first rounder before.

The worst part about this conventional wisdom is that the pundits so often repeat it without delving into why it may or may not be true.  On the aforementioned podcast they never said the most obvious part of the concept:  You cannot win your league in the first round because it is assumed that most teams will get a viable stud in that round, so there is little advantage to be gained.  The opposite is that if you miss on your first rounder you will be at an enormous disadvantage going into the year.  There's your kernel of truth.  I apologize if it seems too basic, but these "experts" never clearly state what they mean.

For average players this concept is often true, but listen...  Let's talk about what I call the "20/20 Pattern."  Simply stated, pretty much everyone will draft a bust 20% of the time and will also get a player that outperforms their draft position 20% of the time.  Think about the first five rounds of a typical draft...  Maybe you get a guy who delivers on his draft status in rounds 1, 3, and 5 but your 2nd rounder is a worthless bust.  However, on the bright side you grabbed a gem in the 4th round who dramatically overproduces.  Sound familiar?  It's the 20/20 Pattern at work.

For most teams the pattern will repeat itself throughout their draft.  To gain a competitive advantage your job is to do enough homework to find more of those 'gems' later in your draft (or at lower price points in an auction).  This blog and the associated educational materials that will be for sale will teach you to do exactly that.