Sign-up Bonus: Free Version of My Book

Time to get serious. Let me send the bonus version of my book to you.
I've spent 20 years on this stuff and the book doesn't hold back... It's got the secrets of the pros of fantasy: "Managing My Team" + "Common Mistakes to Avoid."


* indicates required

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Megatron's Powers

Calvin Johnson is on the cover of Madden this year and everyone is concerned about the curse.  I'm here to tell you not to worry about it.  Why?  Because the curse isn't real?

Nope.  Because Megatron's powers are greater than the curse.  Go ahead and start paying attention to it again in 2013, but for now...  Calvin > Curse.

Do I have any real information to share or am I just going to make funny?  Well, yes I do.  Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers are in the top tier by themselves this year in their respective positions.  They are my first round exceptions.

We've talked quite a bit in this space about positional scarcity in fantasy football and how the need at the running back position is over-subscribed.  Everywhere else there is tons of depth.  Taking strong RB's early and often is highly recommended, and you could do a lot worse than starting your draft with RB-RB-RB.

And still, Rodgers and Megatron are the notable exceptions.  They are so head and shoulders above their colleagues it isn't funny.

Rodgers' passing TD's took a big leap forward last year, so you can't count on 45 TD's but he's a safe bet for about 4,500 yards, ~34 TD's, and ~9 Int's.  That is elite by itself, but layer on top of that about 300 yards rushing and 4 rushing TD's, which is 54 more points in a normal fantasy league.  That's almost 4 points per week... on top of elite passing numbers.

Johnson's situation might be even more striking.  He's still only 26 and his QB emerged last year as one of the best in the league.  There other wide receivers on that team who are mediocre but solid which helps him a bit by spreading the field without threatening his status as #1.  Plus, there is an average-at-best running game in Detroit right now.  So, mix together the best receiver in the league in his prime plus one of the top 5 QB's in the league in his prime plus the entire offense resting on the shoulders of said wide receiver.  It's a perfect mix.  And, he erupted for 1,681 yards and 16 TD's last year.  You can count on 1,200 and 12.  He's got upside of 2,000 and 22.

Yes, 2,000 yards receiving... That's what I'm saying his ceiling is.  Look, Matthew Stafford will throw for over 4,000 yards this year.  Pettigrew, Burleson, and Young might get about 2,000 of it.  Mega gets the rest.

Is that likely to happen?  Nope.  What is likely is that he does what he did last year...  1,600 and 16.

Also, last thing...  People are saying that Johnson is actually bigger and stronger this year.  Crazy.  Optimus Prime better not get in his way.  Curse, shmurse.