The All-Balance Team, 2015

The prevailing wisdom in auction leagues is something called 'Stars and Scrubs.'  The idea here is that you invest heavily in a few guys to anchor your team since top-end talent is rare and is usually the difference maker in a long season.  Plus, your bench guys and waiver wire guys are more or less interchangeable since you just need a guy to plug in once in a blue moon.

That's all well and good, but I've got a few issues with that:

1. Too many eggs in too few baskets.  If Trout or Kershaw go down with an injury, there goes 20% of your auction money.
2. Bench guys do not have to be cheapies.  They can have real value if you plan well, and let me tell you, there is a world of difference between an $8 guy and a $1 replacement player.
3. In leagues with daily lineup changes flexibility is king.  Imagine a world where all of your guys are roughly equivalent and many of them play multiple positions?  You can play the matchups every blasted day... No more pitching in Coors or batting in Petco.  No more batting versus Kershaw and King Felix.  Nagging injury?  No problem!

Okay, so many leagues are 12 teams with a $260 budget.  In most of those leagues you're going to draft anywhere from 22-29 players, something like that.  To make the math easy, let's just say you are looking to grab 26 players with your $260:  $10 each on average.

I used the auction rankings at FantasyPros.com for values, with 65% reserved for batters.  From there I just blocked out all players valued between $8 and $12.

But, Dave, you say.... Dave, how can I compete with an entire roster of $10 players?  Behold...

Catcher ($20):
Salvador Perez - $8
Evan Gattis - $12

1B ($24):
Joey Votto - $12
Prince Fielder - $12
(also qualify here: Gattis)

2B ($18):
Howie Kendrick - $10
Martin Prado - $8
(also qualify here: Zobrist)

SS ($16):
Starlin Castro - $8
Jimmy Rollins - $8
(also qualify here: Zobrist)

3B ($20):
Ryan Zimmerman - $11
Manny Machado - $9
(hard to pass up David Wright at $12, too)
(also qualify here: Prado and Harrison)

OF ($63):
Ben Zobrist - $12
Josh Harrison - $8
Billy Hamilton - $12
J.D. Martinez - $11
Marcell Ozuna - $10
Shin-Soo Choo - $10
(also qualify here: Zimmerman, Prado, and Gattis)

SP ($60):
Gio Gonzalez - $10
Carlos Carrasco - $8
Tyson Ross - $9
Julio Teheran - $12
Homer Bailey - $9
Jose Fernandez - $12

RP ($43):
Dellin Betances - $10
David Robertson - $11
Steve Cishek - $9
Mark Melancon - $13

All told it's $264, so feel free to drop an outfielder and add a cheaper pitcher like Jose Quintana or Zach Britton, both $6.

I think the beauty of this approach is the fact that you never really know who is going to break out or have the big comeback season.  It also insulates you from slumps and injuries and also the curse of the big first half.

This team wins steals, wins saves, has a staff full of potential aces, and has insane roster flexibility on the hitting side.  Plus, did you think there would be all of those erstwhile superstars like Fielder, Votto, Choo, and Zimmerman on there?  Any one could bust out, plus there is greaet upside with younger guys that we saw have big years in 2014 - Harrison, Martinez, and even Hamilton.

Think you could win with a squad like this?

Keeper League Trade

In my previous post I mentioned that I have Jason Kipnis in three leagues already this year.  Well, I just did it again with Jose Reyes.  I wanted to explain the parameters of the deal and my thought process for making the trade.

First of all, the league.  This is a 20-team mixed league with 10 keepers plus three minor leaguers.  The draft is an auction with just $200, minus the value of your keepers.  My keepers in this league were at $62 before the trade, so I was going to be working with $138 to fill 14 spots.  There is a fair amount of inflation with this league due to the number of keepers, but that is mitigated somewhat by the large number of teams and smaller auction budgets.  Resources are scarce in a 20-team league and my belief is that especially limited resources like catchers, shortstops, and closers are highly valuable.  This is why I'm keeping Brandon League.  The conventional wisdom is that Kenley Jansen takes that job from him, but until he does League is as good as gold.

We only have three outfielders (albeit position-specific - LF, CF, RF) and no MI's or CI's, so that reduces the crush on those components.  It's a Yahoo-style league with a few tweaks.  It's got a great commissioner and tremendous competition...  I really enjoy the league and heartily recommend something this deep for those of you who love fantasy.

So, a rundown of my keepers before the trade:

• J. Montero - $5
• Kipnis - $17
• Kendrick - $7
• C. Davis - $1
• Headley - $1
• Heyward - $24
• C. Maybin - $1
• Morrow - $2
• League - $3
• Perkins - $1

I've also got Miguel Montero for $11, but I think he misses the cut.  

Okay, so here are the players involved in the deal:

Jeff Keppinger Won't Hurt You

Okay, folks... The topic today is something we covered last year, but I think it is important, so Ima gonna hit it again.

In my FSIC AL-Only league draft that I wrote about recently I took Jeff Keppinger in the 19th round.  To me, Keppinger is the poster child for a player who "isn't going to hurt you."  At least that's what they say.

But what are people really saying there?

What they are saying is that he'll hit for average but not do anything else.  In other words, when people talk about a player who isn't going to hurt you they are usually talking about a player who does well in qualitative stats (batting average, ERA, WHIP) but doesn't contribute elsewhere.  I'm not sure exactly why this is so, but I do know that nothing hurts quite so much as seeing one of your players go 0 for 6 with zero runs, RBI, or stolen bases.  Keppinger will pretty much never do that to you.

However...

Brett Lawrie, Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana

What do Brett Lawrie, Eric Hosmer, and Carlos Santana all have in common?  They all burst onto the scene in 2011, where high draft picks in 2012, and disappointed fantasy owners everywhere.

What can we learn from this?  Track record, people.  You have to look at what they've done over the course of their career and not take a small number of at bats as proof of what they will do going forward.

Brett Lawrie only had 150 AB's in the big leagues in 2011, but he made the most of them.  He had an OPS of .953 which was good enough for an OPS+ of 153.  In addition he tallied 7 stolen bases, and given a full season, that rate would look like nearly 30 for the year.  All of this at third base?  Yes, please!  Imagine what he would do in that lineup, in that ballpark, for more than 500 AB's!

We should have seen it coming because his minor league numbers were actually significantly worse than what he did in the bigs in those 150 AB's.  In the minors he had a career OPS of just .850, which was even buoyed up significantly by more than 22% of those minor league at bats coming in Las Vegas, an extremely hitter-friendly environment.  The speed could be legit with 62 bags in 1282 minor league AB's, but he was caught 28 times so his success rate has not been great.

The Man

I wasn't thinking of Stan Musial when I typed the headline, but I am now.  Has there ever been a better nickname than "The Man"?  I'd like to think he still would have been nicknamed that even if his name was Oscar Musial.  You know, without the rhyme.  He still would have been the man.

But I digress.  Fantasy football research season is upon us and I'd like to talk about one of the most important aspects of your coming drafts: finding running backs who are going to get a lot of work.  Clear cut starters who have the top job without a lot of competition.  The bell cow.  The Man.

There aren't a lot of them, certainly not like say twenty or thirty years ago.  Back in the day just about every team had a feature back that would get just about all of the work.  These days teams usually subscribe to the conventional wisdom to keep your guys fresh and to go with a committee.

Nevertheless, there are some guys out there that should get a larger than average number of carries this year, assuming everyone stays healthy.  There are a handful of guys that don't have big competition for carries, and you may not be thinking of all of them in that way.

Now, don't go using this list to dramatically move a player way up your cheat sheets by 30 or 40 spots.  However, here at the FSB we are all about strategy that you can use over and over again and this tactic is something that is a repeatable best practice.  If an RB is the man he'll have a great opportunity to shine.  That is much preferred over a talented guy who might get lost in a 3-man or 4-man backfield.

I would recommend improving the rankings of these guys a bit and maybe bumping them up a tier if they are bunched with guys who have more competition.

So, some of the guys we're talking about include:

• Ray Rice
• LeSean McCoy
• Ryan Mathews 
• Marshawn Lynch
• Trent Richardson
• Darren McFadden
• Steven Jackson
• Shonn Greene
• James Starks
• Donald Brown

In my opinion, none of those guys have strong competition for carries on their team.  There's no trendy sleeper on the second string.  The closest is Mike Goodson in Oakland or Isaiah Pead in St. Louis.  I refuse to consider Delone Carter as a legit threat in Indy.

The next guy on the list would have been Ahmad Bradshaw, but I think David Wilson is a legitimate threat there.  Moreso than Pead or Goodson.

Of course, all of this assumes no injuries, so your mileage may vary.

But listen, you could do a lot worse than a combination of Rice, Richardson, Starks, and Brown.

Reverse Handcuff

When you take a running back very early in a snake draft or spend a lot of money on one in an auction draft, you're going to want to take out some insurance to protect that investment.  If there is a clear-cut, quality backup for that player then you've got to grab him.  That is what we call a handcuff.

But I've been thinking, there are a few situations where the clear-cut starter isn't available for some reason... injury, suspension, or contract dispute.  So how do you handle those situations?  It's strange, but it's almost a reverse handcuff situation.  You devalue the starter and increase the value of the backup.

For example, what do you do with the Minnesota situation this year?  They've been softening on their stance that Adrian Peterson is completely healthy and it's looking more and more that he might actually go on the PUP list to start the season.  That means at least six weeks on the shelf.  Look, Toby Gerhart isn't a very good running back... but if Peterson is out for six weeks?  Guaranteed?  Well, they'll run Gerhart until his wheels fall off, and you can get him very cheaply in your draft.

What about Chicago?  Forte says he'll sign, but what if it drags out like with Vincent Jackson in San Diego?  That is a buying opportunity on Michael Bush.

Detroit is murky with a three-headed monster up there, but Mikel LeShoure is suspended for two weeks.  That's something at least...  Does that increase the value of Jahvid Best?  Sure.

Be on the lookout for these kinds of situations and the hidden value that they bring to the table.  And remember, when you draft someone like Toby Gerhart don't forget to take his handcuff too.

Drafting, for Starters

Most fantasy football teams have nine starting positions - quarterback, tight end, defense, kicker, two running backs, two wide receivers, and some sort of flex.  That's pretty common, though there are a million variations.  What doesn't vary is the way about half of your competitors will approach their draft.  That approach?  They will systematically fill out all of their starting positions (except kicker, usually) before turning their attention to the bench.

This is a market inefficiency that you can exploit.  It's a buying opportunity for you.

Think about it, most fantasy football players will take their tight end and defense too early just because they are starting every week.  What's worse is that they will often ignore the flex spot until round 8 since it isn't a defined position.  Their draft will go something like this:

• Round 1: RB
• Round 2: WR
• Round 3: QB
• Round 4: RB
• Round 5: WR
• Round 6: TE
• Round 7: D/ST
• Round 8: WR

There are so many things wrong with this draft that I don't really know where to start, but I see it over and over again.  Heck, I even see a kicker going in round 9 more often than I'd like to discuss.  Folks like filling out that starting roster.

Okay, here we go...

• Quarterback in round 3?  The super studs are gone by now and you should be waiting until several rounds later since QB's in the #5-#9 range are usually pretty similar.  Last year that would have looked something like Tony Romo versus Matthew Stafford.  The fact that you would have lucked out on Stafford is beside the point, though it certainly bolsters it.  The point here is that RB's and (to a lesser extent) WR's are a more scarce resource and you should be spending your early round currency on what is more difficult to obtain.
• Tight end in round 6?  Filling out that lineup, are ya?  Listen, there might be a good one there for you in round 6 but you could get a very comparable one (or maybe the exact same one) in round 9.  Use those picks to build inventory where you need it - RB.
• D/ST in round 7?  What are you doing, man?  C'mon, defenses are hard to predict and don't give you a discernible advantage week-to-week.  Plus, you're probably going to want to drop your defense when the bye weeks hit...  Can't do that with the one you take in round 7.
• WR3 in round 8?  Of course you did.  But do you know why you did?  You took a WR there because those names seemed to sound better than what was available at RB.  You know what?  You're going to need a couple more RB's and the names are going to continue to get worse.  This could have been avoided if you had grabbed some inventory earlier instead of taking a defense and a tight end.

There is a semi-defensible rationale for drafting your starters first, that being that you aren't getting points from the players on your bench so in your draft you have to prioritize the players who will be scoring for you.  The problem with that is that the draft strategy outlined above doesn't give you the best chance to win.

You need to prioritize by the scarcity of the position and the potential point difference provided by quality options at the scarce positions.  Getting a stud defense will help on certain weeks, but overall it is a small difference.  Grabbing a second-tier tight end instead of a third-tier option will have almost no impact, even if you guess right.

And don't get me started on kickers.

Please be on the lookout for my upcoming audio series that I am calling: "The Program."  It is unlike anything else available in the market today...  It is a "masters class in fantasy football."  A reusable training program designed to turn you into an elite fantasy football player.  Coming soon!

Cuddyer for Bumgarner. Seriously.

In my friends league (12 team, mixed, auction) I was offered Madison Bumgarner for Michael Cuddyer.  I jumped all over it, right?  Um, well... You see... Eventually, yes.

I initially declined.  And this is where you say, "What?!?"

The simple fact is that I needed HR's and RBI's in the worst way and if I traded Cuddyer I would only have Lucas Duda and Edwin Encarnacion (who might be playing over his head) qualifying at 1B.  That, and with guys like Ryan Vogelsong and Daniel Hudson on the waiver wire, who needs SP's?  Right?

Right?

Okay, so I looked a little deeper and realized that my IP were starting to lag behind the average, and even though most of my pitching stats looked good, I really could use some W's.  And, clearly... obviously... Bumgarner is a better baseball player than Cuddyer.  Even though I have Clayton Kershaw, Gio Gonzalez, and Dan Haren in that league a guy like Bumgarner is always welcome.  That, and Brandon McCarthy (who I also own) just went on the DL.

But, that can't be it.  When you are evaluating a 1-for-1 trade offer with players from different positions you have to look at a few things:

• Am I improving my starters by using assets from my bench?
• Is the future performance of this player going to be a net gain?
• Who replaces the guy I'm giving up?
• If it is a keeper league, what are the player values and keeper ramifications?

The fact is that I'm going to start Bumgarner every time out and Cuddyer was playing for me about 70% of the time.  With E5's emergence this year I was at least somewhat dealing from my bench for a starter.

The future performance of Bumgarner is more assured than Cuddyer.  Better "prime profile" as identified by age, track record, injury history, etc. (As discussed in this space previously.)

Now, the kicker...  Sure there are decent SP's available, but check out the 1B's that are also available: Mitch Moreland, Chris Davis, and Michael Morse (on the DL).  So, if I dropped Wei-Yin Chen for Moreland the total impact would look like: Cuddyer/Chen for Moreland/Bumgarner.

That, my friends is a big step forward.

Another thing about keeper value.  I famously paid $16 for Cuddyer.  Keeping him next year would cost $21, and that's just not happening.  Bumgarner was $14.  Am I going to keep him next year for $19?  Hmm, probably not... but there is a non-zero chance that his value will rise into the $20's and I'll get another year of value out of him.

So, I reached out to the other owner and asked if the deal was still on the table.  He was like, "Yeah.  I couldn't believe you turned it down.  I'm flush with SP's and really need a hitter."

So, the bottom line is that I really got lucky there.  I should have examined all of the angles before turning it down initially.  I guess I was busy that day and I just looked at the fact that my pitching stats were better than my hitting stats and turned it down.

Next time I get an offer that is even close I'll weigh all of the factors and look at all possible angles before making a decision.

DistraKtions

There are a lot of shiny objects in baseball and in football.  Many things that draw our attention.  Advanced statistics, off-field storylines, random occurrences, etc.  Often, when we translate what is happening in the real world to the fantasy sports world we get distracted from what makes an impact.

A perfect example is strikeouts.  Of course it is important to pay attention to K's with your pitchers, but why do so many people care about the number of times a hitter strikes out?  It's like looking at a house and thinking it is priced too high because there's bright red paint on the dining room wall.  Ridiculous.

Sure, strikeouts for a hitter can be an indicator or a predictor for you, especially when they are trending to a great degree in one direction or the other.  But, if there is a consistent track record?  Forget them.

Adam Dunn is a great case study.  For the seven seasons from 2004-2010 he averaged over 180 K's per year.  He also averaged over 40 HR's per year with exceptional consistency.  He was money in the bank for 40 HR, 80+ R, and 100+ RBI with a BA between .234 and .266.  At the same time it was very common for people to look at the 180+ strikeouts and think that they didn't want any part of Adam Dunn.

Why?  Who cares about his K's?  It limits his BA a bit, but that is already factored into the deal...  What if half of his K's were groundouts?  He would have had the same BA with only around 90 K's.  If that had been the case I guarantee you he would have been viewed differently and valued much more highly.

Another distraction?  Defensive ability.  Dunn is a terrible defender, which further reduces his perceived value.  But I ask you, who cares what he does with the leather?  If he loses some AB's to a defensive replacement on a regular basis, I suppose that could impact his value... But come on, there's too strong of a track record there.

In 2009 I got Dunn for $9 in a standard-issue 12-team keeper league.  And this was fairly early in the auction when people still had money.  He was supposed to go for at least $18 that year if I remember correctly, and I was really just price enforcing.  I already had my outfielders (Remember Dunn as an OF?  Good times, good times...) so I expected to drop out of the bidding around $14 or $15.  When I got him at $9 I couldn't believe it.  I kept him in 2010 for $14 but elected not to keep him in 2011 for $19.  He got drafted (by someone else) in that league last year for $23.  Ouch.

Anyway, the bottom line here is to become more aware that these sorts of distractions exist and that they artificially reduce player values in our minds.

A good one in the football world is the number of times a running back catches the ball out of the backfield.  Sure, it limits his production but that's already factored into his value.  What you have to look for is if the player is further downgraded in the perception of fantasy managers due to a limitation in one area of the game.  If they are perceived to be worse than what their track record would indicate... boom!  Buying opportunity.

Another one is the number of times a quarterback fumbles.  I mean, yeah, that's -2 points in most leagues but the point here is that if a QB is losing 7 or 8 fumbles per year they will be perceived poorly as a result.  For you that would be about -0.5 points per week worse than the average QB.  If all of the sudden a pretty solid QB option got bad press for his fumbling issues, don't you think his fantasy value would drop more than the reality of the situation?  -0.5 points per week should reduce their value somewhat, but it is hardly a major differentiator.  It is, however, a buying opportunity for you.

Be on the lookout for real value versus unfair drops in value based off of perceived value.

Cuddyer for $16

Yep, I paid $16 for Michael Cuddyer this year in a standard-issue 12-team league with a $260 budget.  I felt like I had to.  Allow me to explain.

I had to have a 1B and all of the decent options were drying up.  There were a few other guys I liked at other positions or as bench players:  Howie Kendrick, Edwin Encarnacion, Lucas Duda.  Cuddyer was the last one available that I liked who I figured would probably play for me at 1B.

I assumed the bidding would stop around $8 or $9, maybe as high as $10.  I had him pre-ranked at $12 so I figured I would get him easily.  Wouldn't you know it, there was one other player who liked him too and felt the need for a 1B.  So, together we cruised right past $12.  I hesitated on $14, but figured it was worth it.  He hesitated on $15, but did it.  Curses...  $16?  Really?  For Michael Cuddyer?  Ugh.

So, I bid $16 and got the guy.  I have him with a drop in average and a spike in home runs...  Maybe .260 with 34 taters.  If he does that, I'll be fine.

But, check it out...  I was able to also get Kendrick at $14, Duda at only $1, and E5 for only $3 at the very end of the auction.  So, for $34 I gave myself four excellent options at 1B, all with flexibility to play elsewhere.  That is how you win leagues, my friends.  Do what you have to here and there, but make sure you get value overall.

That, and positional flexibility.  I can play matchups.  Most days I will probably start three of those four guys, with obviously only one at 1B.  I'm not locked into one $30 type like Paul Konerko who has to play every day no matter what.

I greatly prefer my way.

Consolidating Value vs. Spreading Risk

Consolidating value or spreading risk...  You are probably doing a version of one or the other in an auction league.  You may gravitate to one or the other in a snake-draft league, but the only real way to get there is through trades.

Let's discuss.

Consolidating Value:  Stars and Scrubs in an auction league.  Executing 3-for-1 trades in any league.  You want a handful of players that are so great you can afford to have junk everywhere else.  The studs are guys you can rely on and you don't have to take them out of the lineup, ever.  This gives you some breathing room with those guys and makes your team a little easier to manage.  If you have Jose Bautista and Joey Votto, those dudes are never coming out of your lineup.  Heck, Votto could go 5-for-5 with 2 HR's against Roy Halladay.  Who knows?  The rest of your team is basically replacement level, so that's fairly easy to manage as well.

With those replacement-level fill-ins I would recommend as many qualifying positions as possible.  John Mayberry, Daniel Murphy, etc.  Play the matchups.

Spreading Risk:  This sort of team is one that has strong options everywhere, though you may not have those big time studs.  This team requires more skill to pilot and more time in research.  If you don't manage effectively you are going to leave a lot of value on the bench, which is obviously a losing situation. 

Here, you'll want to pay close attention to split stats... Left/Right, Home/Away, etc.  You'll also want to look at histories versus today's pitcher as well as park effects.  Also, you'll want positional flexibility everywhere since you'll be doing a lot of swapping.

Also, one additional thought...  Streaming pitchers.  You may have one or two slots on either sort of team for this.  Maybe two with your scrubs and only one where you have spread the risk.  Streaming pitchers is a way to support your studs and also a way to spread risk so it has a purpose in both strategies.

Dominant Draft Design

There is this concept called "Dominant Design" that pops up in any industry that is creative or driven around a building or construction process.  In the early stages of any of this kind of undertaking all sorts of ideas emerge about how to accomplish the task.  Sometimes one of these plans is so clearly superior that it must be heralded as a "dominant design."  This design goes on to be the standard in that realm and all other concepts whither away.

Today I'd like to talk about the dominant design in fantasy drafts and some of the things I have seen that have bucked the trend.

In an earlier post I talked about how fantasy football drafts tend to have two running backs, one quarterback, and two wide receivers in the first five rounds, in some order.  In baseball, there is a common trend of taking "one of each."  These are market inefficiencies that you can exploit.

It used to be that the only smart thing to do in football would be to take running backs with each of your top two picks.  This was the dominant design of the day.  It slowly crept into our minds that this might not be the best course.  What if you took wide receivers with your first two picks?  Well, you'd get the two best ones wouldn't you?  What about grabbing Aaron Rodgers in the first round?  He's pretty reliable, unlike most running backs.

Be on the lookout for these sorts of dominant designs.  One plan in auction drafts is to go with "Stars and Scrubs," which is to say that you spend most of your money on big studs and then fill in with cheap filler guys.  If everyone in your league is 'zigging' like this, I recommend that you start 'zagging.'  How would you do that?  It seems obvious that if most people are paying for those players worth $35 or more that there must be lots of value in the $8-$22 range.  If you scoop up a bunch of those types do you know what is likely to happen?  A couple of them will break out and perform like those $35+ players and the rest of them will dramatically out-produce the $1 and $4 guys on your competitors' rosters.

In one of my leagues this year there was a well-respected manager who decided to go all pitching for the first nine rounds.  That is the exact opposite of what you are "supposed" to do.  Pitching is deep, don't pay for saves, get your stud hitters before they are gone, blah blah blah...  Needless to say, this guy's pitching is spectacular.  His hitting is terrible on paper, but he has some high upside guys.  Pitching is half of the scoring, so why not?  We'll see if his plan works.  It should be interesting.

I had a similar start to my AL-Only Expert league in FSIC this year.  I mentioned it in my draft recap, but it's worth saying again...  I was logged into two laptops and missed my first two picks.  I got Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez with picks #10 and #11, so we'll see if going with pitching early is the new dominant design.  Stay tuned.

Conventional Wisdom IV

Here we go with another installment of "Conventional Wisdom."  As we have discussed previously, there are a lot of things that people widely believe about fantasy sports that may have a kernel of truth but are largely incorrect.  Today we discuss: "Don't draft for wins."

This is a baseball concept with your pitching staff.  The belief is that you cannot accurately project the number of wins that any given starter will accrue.  They are just too random.

The kernel of truth is that you really can't, and shouldn't, peg a specific starter for a number of wins.  I could tell you that I think CC Sabathia will get 21 wins this year, but there's something like a 95% chance I'd be wrong.  However, if I told you that Sabathia would get between 18-22 wins this year I'd probably have about a 70% chance of being correct.  That's gotta be worth something.

The larger point here is that if you throw out wins entirely you're going to be in trouble.  In a typical 5x5 league wins count for 10% of your total score, of course...  If you don't compete in any single category you're basically saying that you aren't competing for first place in the league.  You may want to devalue wins in your projections, but you should still aim for the middle of the pack, which is completely doable.  You don't have to win every category to win your league, but you have to put forth effort everywhere.  You can afford to be middle of the pack in one or two categories and still win the league, but last place in a category is really, really hard to overcome.

Let's take another example - Felix Hernandez.  He is in his prime and ought to be dominant once again in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.  But wins?  Unlikely.  He'll probably get you between 12-16 wins.  You can't specifically put him on, say, 13 wins but you can guess a likely range.  You have to take this into account when drafting. 

So, in our examples above Sabathia will dominate Hernandez in wins.  Is that enough to draft him over Hernandez?  Not necessarily, but it's good to have it in your mind.  Using a likely range you can draft for wins, so Sabathia may be your guy.  It is likely that King Felix will have a significant edge in ERA and WHIP, so he probably does beat Sabathia by a nose this year.

Okay, last thoughts on this.  When you are drafting hitters it is fairly easy to keep an eye on whether you still need speed or power as you get closer to the halfway point in the draft.  I suggest you do the same with wins.  If your earlier picks in a draft are guys like Hernandez you are going to want to grab decent wins candidates later on.  Maybe you can get a guy like Clay Buchholz or CJ Wilson fairly cheap later on.  They play on good teams with good offenses so they should get their share of wins. 

You may even take a gamble very late (last round or two) on a middle reliever with excellent peripherals who can "vulture" a handful of wins for you without hurting you anywhere.  It costs you a late pick or $1 in an auction, plus the roster spot.  It's the roster spot that is most important since there is an opportunity cost there, but you can put a strong middle reliever in your lineup every day while some of your starters are on rest days. (For example: In 2008 J.P. Howell pitched 89 innings and got you 6 wins, 92 strikeouts, 3 saves, and a 2.22 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP.  He helped everywhere and cost nothing.  Picking the right guy is the real trick with this one.  Howell was awful in 2007, so there was no reason to predict his numbers in 2008... so don't chase a wild goose.)

It's a good tactic that can pay dividends for you with a very small investment.  These kind of small incremental improvements are what separate the great fantasy players from those that are just pretty good.

My Friends League

On Saturday morning we had the fourth annual auction draft with my friends from around the country, many of whom don't know each other.  It always trips me out to have my friends from various stages of my past conversing with one another and playing fantasy baseball together.  I highly recommend it.

Anyway, it is a $260 budget auction with 12 teams and four keepers.  Standard 5x5 mixed-league fare.  Our keepers get a $5 raise each year and can only be kept twice.

So, this is my last year with Robinson Cano.  Good thing he's winning the MVP this year.  I've got him as a keeper at $32 and Clayton Kershaw at $23.  Matt Wieters at $14 (no real value there) and Cameron Maybin at $6 are my other two.  Expensive keepers this year...  It's the opposite situation from my semi-dynasty league.  Instead of having the second-most money I had the second-least.

So, I let the guys bid away early on.  I monitored the values that dudes were going for, but I didn't feel like I needed to go too far into the water.  I did grab Dan Haren for $24, so I like how my pitching staff was starting out.

My next buy was Joe Nathan for $8.  I am not in love with this pick... I felt like he would go for $10-ish so I was price-enforcing at $8.  I got stuck.  It's not so much the price as the roster slot...  I'd rather have a lot of other closers that went for less than $8.  Javy Guerra, Sean Marshall, etc.  Oh well.  Maybe the old guy has something left in the tank.  I'm debating whether to stash Mike Adams, but roster spots are at a premium.

I noticed that a fair amount of third basemen had been taken or kept and there were a diminishing supply of really good ones, so I took the tactic of nominating the ones I didn't want.  Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez... then, when Brett Lawrie came up I was able to get him for $20.  I believe that is a steal.

What wasn't a steal was $18 for Howard Kendrick, but I had to have him.  I ended up with a bunch of Angels, actually... Erick Aybar for $18, Jordan Walden for $9, Haren, Kendrick.

I added a couple other closers later, working my Rhombus theory (see: "The Rhombus" post on this blog).  I got four guys of roughly equal value, adding Huston Street for $11 and being able to grab Javy Guerra for $7.  SoCal in the house.

On the hitting side, I had a crazy period of time where I totally believed in Michael Cuddyer and bid him all the way up to $16.  Kind of crazy.  I felt better, though, when I scooped Billy Butler for $14, Shin-Soo Choo for $17, and Lucas Duda for $3.  Who knows, maybe Cuddyer gets back his power stroke with a new organizational philosophy and the thin air a mile up in the mountains.

At the end of the draft I had kept back a few bucks and grabbed Jesus Montero for $2 when the guy who nominated him looked away for a minute.  My last pick was Edwin Encarnacion for $3.  Not a bad gamble as a backup at 1B and 3B... good lineup, good park.

Late in the draft I looked at the starters left and realized that I probably needed two more.  The way the money was going I thought I could probably get the two I wanted for about $14-$18 total.  I wanted Jaime Garcia and Brandon Morrow.  Unfortunately when Garcia came up for bid the software (or more likely my laptop or the WiFi at Caribou) stopped recognizing my clicks.  In a fit of panic I clicked the "bid" button at least 20 times in a row, but it didn't register and I lost Garcia.  Then, Wandy Rodriguez came up for bid.  My clicks then started to register...  I'm sitting at Caribou Coffee saying, "no no no no no...."  I decided to try to hit the "pass" button.  Didn't work.  I got Wandy for $6.  Next up: Ervin Santana.  My bids are still coming through.  I bid him all the way up to $9 but fortunately my buddy Kelly went to $10.  Next up:  Morrow.  Yes!  My guy... at least I'll get one.  Nope.  It was at this time that my click of "pass" processed.  Argh!!

However, there is a bright side.  I took a look at Wandy's stats and I gotta tell you, he's been pretty good the past few years.  K/9 of 8.2 over the past three years, reliable ERA around 3.50.  That said, he has been slowly declining, had a terrible Spring, his WHIP should be at least 1.30, and he is past his prime at the age of 33.  Plus, he's not going to win any games in Houston.  12, maybe?  So, is a 12-win, 170 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP guy worth $6?  Yeah, I guess so.

But get this, my replacement for losing out on Brandon Morrow?  Another Brandon - Brandon McCarthy for only $1.  Not bad!  I really like McCarthy this year, almost as much as Morrow.  So, maybe I can work a deal with the guy who lost out on Montero, but I don't mind my team.

I think I'll finish around 4th place.  I like the team, but I don't love it... Here it is in a snapshot:

C - Wieters
1B - Cuddyer
2B - Cano
SS - Aybar
3B - Lawrie
OF - Choo
OF - Kendrick
OF - Maybin
Util - Butler
Bench - Montero
Bench - Duda
Bench - Encarnacion

SP - Kershaw
SP - Haren
SP - McCarthy
SP - Stauffer
SP - Wandy
RP - Guerra
RP - Nathan
RP - Walden
RP - Street

Let me know what you think... Is this a better team than I am giving it credit for?

Fall Into the Gap

That was one of the famous slogans from around 1980...  "Fall into the Gap."  Today I want to talk about a different gap... The one between the time that the experts make their rankings decisions and the time that you draft.

Typically the guys from ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS are doing their pre-draft rankings in January.  Most of the time you will be drafting in late March. That's a serious gap my friends.  A lot can change in that time, I assure you.

Spring Training stats are supposed to mean nothing, but I beg to differ.  Most of the time the actual numbers might not carry that much weight, but there is a lot you can learn from what happens in February and March.  Playing time decisions, health, pitch command, and more is sorted out in Spring Training.  Pay attention!  Pre-draft  rankings can't take these things into account and this is a market inefficiency that you can exploit.

When you are drafting most people will default to the rankings from the site on which you are drafting.  It just happens.  Even the most prepared drafters will look at the site's rankings and average draft position, when available.

But you, please do not fall into that gap.  Rise above.  Create your own rankings and use them above everything else.  Know what everyone else is thinking, but know it so that you can exploit the inefficiencies as they present themselves.

You will be able to know what most of your leaguemates are thinking and take advantage of the under-valuing of certain players in the middle rounds.  And it is the middle rounds, I assure you, where true value can be found.

Best of luck this drafting season.

Luck is #1

It is fitting that Andrew Luck is going to be the #1 pick in the NFL draft this year because luck is the #1 thing you have to be worried about in fantasy football.

In baseball however, it is not nearly the same level of concern.  It is still there, though.  But worry not my faithful reader, there are things you can do to move luck further and further out of the equation for your league.

Here now is my list of ideas on how to have a "Less-Luck League":

1. Auction.  This list isn't necessarily in order, but the first one is definitely number one no matter how you slice it.  If you want to reduce the luck factor, draft in an auction instead of a snake draft.  Everyone has the same access to all of the same players so it becomes a question of strategy and how much you want every player you go after.

2. FAAB.  This is the auction of waiver wires.  You get a set number of dollars to spend as bids on the waiver guys.  The highest dollar figure is awarded the claim and those dollars are debited from that player's fixed annual budget.

3. Keepers.  If you draft well one year you should be rewarded next year.  Adding a number of keepers in your league carries your skill from one year into the next allowing the cream to rise to the top.

4. Big Leagues.  Go ahead and sign up for a 14, 16, 18, or even 20 team league.  There are more competitors so the best ones will be closer to the top.  Usually.  This isn't a sure-bet, but it helps.

5. Big Benches.  More reserves reduces dependency on the waiver wire and ostensibly increases the display of skill in the league.

6. DL Slots.  Some leagues don't have a DL at all.  Most have one, some have more.  I suggest having two DL slots so managers aren't faced with cutting a guy they so expertly picked up just because he is injured. 

Any other thoughts?  Chime in, we'd love to hear from you.

Semi-Dynasty League

On Saturday we drafted half of the 20-team dynasty league.  I say half because there were 232 keepers out of 500 players.  There is a $200 auction budget in that league so even with more teams the average dollar figure per player is lower.  Every dollar counts.

The average team had $94 to work with and I had $156 which was the second-most in the league.  Unfortunately, there weren't many players available who were top-shelf options so I knew I had to let my money fly.

We kicked things off with Hanley Ramirez.  Despite his struggles last year he seemed to be easily the bluest chip player available.  With all my cash I was determined to pay basically any amount to get him.  I figured it would be at least $40.  I got him for $42 which in hindsight looks like a steal.

There was some serious inflation going on.  Mark Reynolds went for $24, Pablo Sandoval was $35.  Later on Allen Craig went for $23 and Sean Marshall was $24.

With Hanley I figured I could spend big on either shortstop or third base since he will be both.  I got Derek Jeter for a measly $14.  I backed them both up with Mike Aviles for only $7.  Ramirez, Jeter, and Aviles for $63 total seems pretty solid.

Jason Kipnis for $17 moves Howard Kendrick to 1B or LF and Ryan Rayburn to the bench.  Nice options there.  I also decided I had to have one of the 4 high-end options available at right field (this league has specific outfield positions).  I got Jason Heyward for $24 which was a little more than I wanted to spend, but I do believe he bounces back this year.

I also wanted a "pure" first baseman and got Adam Lind for $12.  We'll see how that goes.  I'm not thrilled with it, but it could work out.

This team has an amazing amount of positional flexibility, which is fantastic to have in a 20-team league where options can be slim and replacement level is pretty low.  Hanley, Aviles, Rayburn, Kendrick, John Mayberry, and Lucas Duda all play multiple positions.

My pitching is really strong, too.  Mostly because of my keepers.  I have Javy Guerra and Sergio Santos for $1 apiece.  That is tremendous in a 20-team league.  I hoped to pick up another closer in the draft, and in hindsight I should have.  The $12 I spent on Lind could have gone there.  They were going in the $16-$24 range and there were only about 5 or so with jobs.

I got David Hernandez for $2 and called it a day on the relievers.  I don't believe that J.J. Putz can stay healthy and Hernandez is the clear alternative.

This league has quality starts as a category in place of wins.  Know your league settings, people!  In this format I though Bud Norris would be a fantastic pickup.  I got him for $13.  He slots in with my other starters: Dan Haren, Tim Stauffer, Brandon Morrow, Scott Baker, and Tyson Ross.  I feel like that is a strong staff for a 20-team league.

Overall, I really like my squad.  I think we can make some noise this year.  This team would destroy my roster in my 10-team AL-Only league.  No doubt about it.

Draft Week!

Four drafts in the next 8 days!  Can't wait to get started tomorrow...

My leagues, for the record:

Tomorrow:
20-Team Semi-Dynasty League:
5x5 (w/ QS in lieu of Wins), Mixed, Auction ($200 budget), 10 keepers, 3 minor leaguers, Roto

Sunday:
FSIC Expert League:
11 Teams, 5x5, AL-Only, Snake, Roto

Tuesday:
BlogTalk Radio Podcast League:
14 Teams, 5x5, Mixed, Snake, Roto

Next Saturday:
My Friends League:
12 Teams, 5x5, Mixed, Auction ($260), 3 keepers, Roto

So, no head-to-head leagues, no public leagues, and no 10-team leagues.  For several years I've limited myself to just 4 leagues.  Some people can't understand why so many, but the hardcore fantasy players might be asking the exact opposite.  Why so few?  Hmm, well I ask myself that as well.  I'd love to be in 8-10 leagues if I could, but there is really a diminishing rate of return and I find that after 4 leagues I lose focus and it becomes more work than fun.  And, it's even less fun when you are losing.  I should be able to stay competitive with 4, but I'll keep you posted as we go with strategic insights that can help you (not just to talk about my leagues... I am here to help, after all).

I'll post draft results all next week and give you some ideas of where I did well and where I went wrong.  It might be too late to help you in your drafts this year, but around here we are all about evolving into a better fantasy player.  So, let's compare notes and get incrementally better.  If you begin to think more critically about your baseball drafts it can have value for you in the Fall with your football drafts.  And we'll come back even stronger next Spring too.

I anticipate that the FSIC Expert League will be the biggest challenge, but that is primarily because it is an 11-team AL-Only league.  That, and the competitors are all people who create fantasy baseball content, so they'll know what they are talking about.  Should be a good time.

The Podcast League has at least 5 experts in it as well, so that will be a semi-expert league of sorts.  Should be lots of fun.

The 20-teamer is very interesting.  I made a strategic error in the inaugural season that I'd like to share with you.  That league has $4,000 ($200 budget for 20 teams) chasing 500 players (25-man roster) for an $8 average per player.  The typical 23-man roster league has 12 teams and a $260 budget, so you'd be looking at $3,120 chasing 276 players for an average of over $11 per player.  My thinking, therefore, was that if I spent on second and third tier players I could scoop up tons of players in the $10-$15 range and have a great roster from top to bottom, which would give me a great advantage over the long haul in this huge 20-team league.  Plus, that would give me great trade fodder and keepers next year.

When the league started I saw all of the studs going for standard 12-team cheatsheet pricing, if not more.  I was licking my chops... all of those second tier guys would be even cheaper because no one had any money left!  So, after about 45 players were off the board I started bidding.  I hit on a few: Howard Kendrick for $7, Dan Haren for $13, Jaime Garcia for $7, Pablo Sandoval for $17... but I also missed on a few, like Rajai Davis for $14 and Kendrys Morales for $20.  My pitching was exceptional early on and I led the league for about 8 weeks, but then I started the long, slow fade.  I finished in 9th place, which I suppose isn't terrible in a 20-team league, but the primary reason is that most of my competitors were buoyed up by a couple of high-priced studs.  I just didn't have a stable foundation.

So this year, after the 10 keepers, the average auction money left is $94 per team.  With all of my low-cost moves I've got $156 to spend, which is second-most in the league.  The problem is that there just aren't a lot of studs available since most teams kept theirs... another thing I didn't expect.  I'm going to have to over-spend for guys like Hanley Ramirez, A-Rod, and Carl Crawford.  Studs who were thrown back for good reason.  Ugh.  The problem is that if I don't I will be spending big money on guys like Mark Trumbo and Alexei Ramirez.  Pickings are slim, so I'm going to let the dollars fly.

Here's to hoping that I don't have to spend $32 on Mark Reynolds.

March Madness

Every year in March a certain madness sweeps the nation.  What is this madness, you ask?  Fantasy baseball draft prep, that's what!  That, and basketball.  Do the two have anything in common?  Read on, my friend.

Everyone who has ever filled out a bracket knows that you can't pick all of the favorites, you've got to go with some upsets here and there.  The prognosticators that pick the proper upsets win their brackets.  The folks who draw chalk do okay, but end up around the 30th percentile or so.

In your fantasy drafts there will often be some people who cannot attend for one reason or another and the computer takes the best available player for them.  This is a sure-fire way to finish in the middle of the pack... say, 5th or 6th in a 12-team league.  If you are used to finishing very low in your leagues, this may actually be a viable one-time strategy for you.  Assuming, of course, that you don't mind knowing that you won't finish in the money from the beginning.

But why do some people routinely finish very low in the standings?  They put their money on the wrong horses, over and over again.  The opposite is true, of course, for the great fantasy managers who often finish in the money.  They pick the right upsets.

I have written previously about the bit of conventional wisdom that says: "You can't win your league in the first round but that you can lose it."  To some extent, I believe this is true.  In a snake draft, take players with the highest floor as possible with your first four picks.  You want to lay the foundation with guys who are reliable.  At that point, rely on your research to direct you to the most likely upsets.  Use the techniques and strategies written about here to uncover the gems in the middle rounds.

I advocate a mix of solid, stable assets in conjunction with at least 20% high-upside breakout candidates.  As discussed previously, your typical breakout candidates are going to be players who:

1. Have no playing time concerns.
2. Have a solid pedigree (as amateur, draft pick, minors, etc.).
3. Have shown an ability to hang in the big leagues.
4. Are entering their prime.

Grab 20%-40% of your roster with that profile, starting in the 5th round.  That will be 1 or 2 picks out of every 5.  In an auction, spend about 30% of your money on guys like this.

Pick the right upsets, my friend, and they'll never see you coming.

Keeper Question: ____ in the 5th or ____ in the 18th?

So it would appear that I am almost always opposed to the experts on websites, blogs, and podcasts in one particular area.  It is a common question about keeper picks that often goes something like this:  "Dear Mr. Fantasy Expert, Should I keep Curtis Granderson in the 5th round or Brett Gardner in the 18th?"  The other variation, for auction drafts might be, "Hi Fantasy Guru, Who should I keep?  Larry Fitzgerald for $24 or Mario Manningham for $1?"

A lot of leagues don't have keeper picks and many of the ones that do have different rules about what you have to give up for the keeper, if anything.  I hope there is something in this post for everyone, but if you don't have a quandary like the one in the first paragraph it probably won't be as helpful for you.  I invite you to keep reading either way.

When faced with the sorts of questions outlined at the top, I find that the experts almost always pick the better player.  Not the better value, the better player.  In the above-mentioned examples Granderson is better than Gardner and Fitzgerald is better than Manningham.  Absolutely.

And, I would go so far as to say that Granderson in the 5th is pretty good value.  Fitzgerald for $24 is pretty good value, too.  But listen, in any draft you will be able to get a very good player in the 5th round or for $24.  Maybe not comparable to your particular keeper option, but good enough to be a reliable starter for you.

However, the 18th round?  Good luck finding anything of value there.  Good for you last year!  You had the foresight to grab a guy who is a viable starter and breakout candidate this year.  You gotta keep that value and go back to the well with your 5th rounder.

And $1 for a solid wide receiver who will start for you just about any week.  A buck?!  Yes, please.  As far as "value" goes it just doesn't get much better than that.

Take your $24 and go fishing again this year...  And don't forget to save $1 for next year's keeper than you nab at the end this year!