Chris Davis to Infinity

Would it really be all that strange to start predicting 60 home runs for Chris Davis?  I mean, I know we aren't supposed to predict numbers that high... but seriously.  Dude is mashing.

And, he's not just mashing but he's exhibiting amazing balance, patience, and plate coverage.  He doesn't just punish mistake pitches.  He isn't just pulling the inside fastball down the line.  This guy is hitting against the shift, hitting to the opposite field, moving runners over.

And, as a result, he's hitting for average.  You know, to go with all of the power numbers.  Davis is hitting .359 and leading all of baseball in OPS with 1.214.  That just can't continue, can it?

Well, no...

Uh...  Yes and no...

Some yes..

Okay listen, he's got a .392 BABIP so far this year which indicates that he's been a bit lucky with the base hits.  But he's got a career BABIP of .342 so it's not too terribly far off.  A high BABIP makes sense for someone with super-human planet of Krypton strength.  Like Davis.  When he puts the ball in play it's coming at you faster than a speeding bullet.

The average is sure to come down, but even if he hits .300 the rest of the way he's going to finish the year with an average around .320.  Which is insane.

And, did I mention power?  He's on pace for 59 home runs and 156 RBI.  It just can't continue, right?  He's hit one extra base hit every 5.92 plate appearances this year.  In his minor league career he got one every 7.75 plate appearances and so far in the majors it's one every 9.5 PA's.  So, I wouldn't think that his current rate can continue.

If he gets 450 more PA's this year and gets one XBH for every 8 PA's, you're talking about 56 more XBH's and 93 for the year.  If 30 of those additional XBH's go for homers, he'll get 49 for the season.

It's crazy to say that 49 is a reasonable number, but that's what I'm saying.

And regarding batting average, this is a guy who hit .318 over more than 2,000 PA's in the minors.  I believe that the power and the average are both legit.  It's not far-fetched to say he ends up hitting .320 with 49 dingers this year.

One last thing about Davis.  For the first time in his major league career he has a set every-day position.  Last year he was a mainstay in the lineup but he played all over the diamond.  In Texas he was yanked all over the place including to and from the farm.  This year the Orioles said, "Chris we believe in you.  You will be the first baseman all year.  We live and die with you.  No need to ever look over your shoulder."  For some people that is what it takes to get comfortable and produce.  Maybe Davis is one of those guys.

I hate to keep harping on his minor league numbers, but that is the last time he was this comfortable.  And, in the minors he was epic.  His MiLB numbers were positively Andruw Jones-ian.  (Which is to say, more than merely amazing.  He wasn't just a hot hitting prospect.  His MiLB production was some of the best ever.)

So, if you could get him in trade for something like Edwin Encarnacion plus Andrew Cashner you have to do it.  The owner in your league with Davis may think he's selling high.  You're going to have to deal a very good 1B plus something like a quality starter or some other piece of good value.  Don't get too carried away, because he's likely to go for .300 and 30 HR the rest of the way... which is great, but he will regress just a bit.

Adrian Gonzalez plus Max Scherzer, maybe?

The Backup Quarterback

Just a quick thought about the backup quarterback.  We've been over the various approaches to the quarterback position in this space quite a bit, so I won't rehash too much here.  But, I do have one additional wrinkle for you.

And, I realize that football season is over.  The flood of baseball will continue shortly, my friends... promise.

With the quarterback position I am an advocate of using back-to-back picks at QB in the 5th-7th round.  I've been over the reasons why a few times here, but the bottom line is that you cover contingencies for injuries, bye weeks, and (most importantly) duds.  Chances are very good in that range that you will end up with at least one stellar quarterback.  This year it may have been someone like Robert Griffin III or Peyton Manning.

Now then, the other option is to use a top pick on a known quantity - Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady.  If you do that, you should be all set other than the bye week for the full year.  No fuss, no muss.  This option gives you virtually guaranteed production as long as there is no major injury, so it can be very effective.  I mean, would you have rather drafted Drew Brees or Chris Johnson in 2012?

Right... But what do you do about the QB2 slot?  Do you even draft one?  Conventional wisdom seems to be shifting to say that you should use that roster slot to take a flier on another mid-round running back instead of wasting room on your roster with a guy that will never play.  In other words, in 2012 would you rather have Brees and Griffin or Brees and a chance at a running back that might be someone like either Donald Brown or Stevan Ridley?  Hit or miss.

Okay, granted that QB2 could have been Philip Rivers or Jay Cutler, but I would contend that your 7th or 8th round pick has a higher chance to hit on a quarterback than a running back... Besides, your bench should be full of lottery ticket running backs, so why not use that slot on a QB2 who has better odds of being a stud?

The main reason why not, as noted, is that that guy probably won't play for you more than once and we always need all the running backs we can get.  But think about what would happen if you landed Griffin or Manning instead of a shot at one more mid-round RB.  Having two of the top eight (for example) quarterbacks gives you tremendous bargaining power as the trading deadline approaches.  What do you think that Philip Rivers owner would give you for RGIII?  Certainly something way better than the BenJarvus Green-Ellis that you may have pulled, even if you hit on that mid-round running back pick.

Just some thoughts, folks.... I'm still noodling football even though I'm diving head-first into baseball.  Pitchers and catchers in less than a week!

Trading for a "B" Player

I own Greg Jennings in a few leagues and I've got to tell you that it hasn't been too much fun this year.  When healthy he is definitely an "A" player who is worthy of a start on your fantasy squad regardless of the matchup.

Jennings is in the prime of his career, he's got an amazing quarterback throwing the ball to him, and he is the #1 receiving option on one of the best offenses in the NFL.  He's an "A" player.

But, he's been banged up most of the year and there are even rumors that they are considering keeping him out until after the week 10 bye.  That means three more missed games and four more missed weeks.  And, Jennings is so good that if you drop him he'd certainly be picked up right away.  Someone is going to be willing to stash him for those four weeks, so it might as well be you since you have already made the investment.

There are other obvious players in this situation like DeMarco Murray and Hakeem Nicks.  Ahmad Bradshaw was banged up earlier this year and came roaring back.  CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are trying to work themselves back into shape right now.  Antonio Gates is also an "A" player, and up until this past week his picture was on a milk carton.

So, what do you do with these guys?  You really only have two options:

1. Trade them for a "B" player
2. Stash them and hope for the best

That's pretty much it.

In general I'm an advocate of stashing the player, and I'll explain why.

Let's look at Jennings.  You probably took him in the late second round or more likely somewhere in the third, which is a sizable investment.  You probably grabbed two "B" player receivers a little later and maybe a fourth option who is a "C" player with upside.  Something like that, anyway: A stud WR1, two guys to rotate at WR2, and a bench guy who could blow up.

In any given week, let's say you start two WR's and possibly three if you put a WR in your flex spot.  Additionally, for the sake of argument, let's say that Jennings won't play until week 11.  You could deal him for a "B" player right now and get the production of that guy for the next four weeks (big bonus) and beyond.

But, let's think about what that does for you.  Sure, you have the option of playing the matchups with your (now) three "B" receivers.  You can mix and match and use that flexibility to help you win each week.  This is an undeniable benefit.

But, to me, there are greater advantages to stashing the "A" player.  Look, you've already got your two "B" guys plus another guy with upside.  You might also be able to grab someone off of the waiver wire who is a good one-week fill-in.  You can still play the matchups almost as effectively as if you had that third "B" level player. 

The big thing, though, is that you'll have Jennings for weeks 11, 12, and 13 and also into your playoffs.  He can be a difference-maker for you down the stretch and help you to win in the post-season.

That is huge.  I don't care if you go 13-0 in the regular season or if you limp in with a 7-6 record, when those playoffs hit everyone is 0-0 again.  Give yourself every advantage you can in those weeks, assuming you can get in fact get there.

Which leads me to the last thing...  If you don't have Jennings, or Nicks, or Murray, or someone like them, start testing the waters to see if you can acquire one. 

You saw what Nicks did for the Giants in the real-life playoffs last year.  Give him a chance to lead you to victory this year.

Regifting

Around this time of year in fantasy football gifts start to rain down from the heavens, falling in our laps.  Short term injuries, one bad game, strange bounces of the ball, gameplan decisions.... Things like this can lead fantasy owners to drop good players in favor of the flavor of the day.

Don't let this happen to you.

However, I'm not here to tell you not to drop good players.  I'm writing today to implore you not to not pick up good players. 

Err, what I'm saying is this: When a player with value gets dropped by someone else, find a way to scoop them up.  You can use that value later.

In one of my leagues Aaron Hernandez and Jeremy Maclin were both dropped a couple of weeks ago.  I grabbed them both, even though this left me with three tight ends and an injured WR that I wouldn't use.  I figured that those guys would have more value in a potential trade than your Daryl Richardson's and Andre Roberts' of the world.

And I was right.  I ran into an issue where I had Doug Martin, DeMarco Murray, and Darren McFadden all on a bye week.  My other RB's were upside plays like Andre Brown and Ben Tate and I wasn't about to start those guys.  So, I packaged one of my other Tight Ends (Brandon Pettigrew) with Maclin and made a deal for two RB's who were getting significant playing time.  Truth be told, they were both pretty bad even though they were getting a fair number of carries, so I was really selling Maclin and Pettigrew at a loss.  The fact was that I needed a couple of RB's who would get touches so I had to make a deal.  Besides, Maclin was like playing with house money anyway and Hernandez and Kyle Rudolph (my #3 TE) would be a fantastic combo at TE going forward.  I wasn't losing anything.

It turned out that one of the RB's played well and the other didn't, but Brown and Tate predictably combined for exactly zero points.  It was lucky that I had quality inventory to spend on a couple of middle-of-the-road fill in options.

The crazy thing is that my trading partner had Arian Foster and wasn't at all interested in Tate.  Strange, that.  I was hoping to expand the deal.  But it goes to show that you always need to be playing the angles. 

Pick up quality players and don't be afraid to do some regifting.

Roster Rot: Buy High, Sell Low

So, we're about 66 games into the baseball season.  That works out to more than 40% of the season.  At this point most players have shown what they are probably going to be this year.

That includes successful seasons and disastrous seasons, and also promise and warning.  You may have guys on your roster that are just not living up to their potential or aren't doing what they normally do.  They aren't performing but they are too valuable to just dump for less than what they are worth.

Let me ask you something, though: Is it better to get 50 cents on the dollar now or continue to suffer with them and chew up a roster spot for no value?  Go ahead and sell low.  It's okay.  (Sometimes... I'll explain.)

There is no better player to look at this year in this regard than Tim Lincecum.  Sure, he's only 28 years old and has a significant track record of eye-popping stats.  But look at his numbers this year.  He has been charged with 4 earned runs or more in 10 out of 14 starts this year... Plus, 2 or more walks in 11 of 14 starts.  He isn't commanding the ball like in the past.

The terrible thing is that the strikeouts are still there for him and he doesn't seem to be injured.  He's pitched at least 5 innings in 12 of 14 starts.  He's had a ton of bad starts, but only one has been close to complete disaster.  He's just getting tagged for more than one hit per inning with two or more walks per outing.  He's just sitting there, rotting on your roster.  Taking up space. 

Who knows why, but you can't just keep holding on to him.  Go ahead and ship him out for Lucas Duda or Trevor Plouffe.  You'll feel better.

On the flip side, there are some guys out there who seem to really be coming into their own, including a classic post-hype guy like Chris Davis.  This guy is only 26 years old and in his career he completely lit up minor league pitching to the tune of a .318 average and a .971 OPS.  And nobody believes he can hit for average because he didn't do it in the show at age 25 or 24 or 23. Even though he hasn't done much at the major league level his numbers have been trending up for a couple of years now, and this is the first time he's ever been a clear starter in the bigs.  He's currently hitting .294 with 12 HR's in 211 AB's.  I don't expect that to stop.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him accelerate a bit as the weather heats up in Baltimore.  His left-handed power plays perfectly for Camden Yards.  I would not be surprised to seem him hit over .300 for the year with more than 30 HR's (My prediction: .308 with 34 HR.)

Everyone preaches "buy low and sell high"... Well, Chris Davis is the perfect "buy high" candidate.  The current owner in your league is expecting him to come to earth sometime soon and may be looking to "sell high."  You're going to have to make a strong offer to get him, but why not?  Give it a shot, especially if you are stuck in the middle of your league standings.

Now is the time to make some bold moves.  You can hang around 5th place in your league until the end or you can make an effort to jump up now while there is still time for the moves to pay off over a significant (~60%) amount of the season.

You Can't Handle the Youk

With Kevin Youkilis so famously on the trading block these days, I'd like to talk about the potential impact of in-season trades and what that might mean for your fantasy squad.

I've got a few things you might consider when a certain player is on the real-world trading block.  Their value may be ready to increase with a new ballpark address.

Here we go:

1) If they are selling why should I be buying?

• Yes, it is true that the current owner is selling, but if the player is traded then there is also a buyer on the other end.  What does the new team see themselves getting from the player?  Take a look at what they give up for the guy, and that can show you how they value him.  Consider why the other team is acquiring the player and if that reasoning works with your risk/reward tolerance.

2) Will the player be in a better playing time situation?

• Are they buried on the depth chart with no room to get regular at bats?  Sometimes there is a big free agent signing or a hot prospect that takes at bats away and a new lineup is just what the doctor ordered.

3) Is this a move from the National League to the American League in order to take advantage of the DH position?

• If so, does that mean more at-bats?  Has the player ever been a DH before?  Some guys just can't get into the flow of the game at DH and it doesn't work.  Also, are they hiding some sort of injury?  This may not be automatically a bad thing...  Some guys can just go up and hit without worrying about certain injuries that they would have to be concerned about while playing defense.  Nevertheless, the player may be damaged goods...  Be on the lookout for this and look at the evidence.

4) Will a change of scenery do them good?

• Too often there is baggage associated with a team, a city, a manager, or teammates.  A change of venue can be a huge shot in the arm to a player that has worn out his welcome.  Look for evidence of conflict with the manager or booing from the fans.  You may also look at a player who used to deliver big stats and has been trending down recently.  If you do a prime profile on the player and determine that there is still plenty of gas left in the tank, try to acquire them.

If playing time improves, at bats will increase, and statistics should go right along with them.  Look, I don't think that Youkilis has much left but I wouldn't be shocked to see him go somewhere like Arizona and get some pep in his step and start to mash.  Crazier things happen every day.

So, while I really don't like Youkilis in Boston this year I might take a flyer on him with the D-Backs. (For example.)  This same thing can happen with lots of players, of course.  Think critically about park effects, playing time concerns, and whether a simple change of scenery can breathe new life into the player's career.

Take these items into account and ask yourself if the recently-traded or maybe the soon-to-be-traded player is getting a bump in value that possibly their current owner isn't factoring in.  (Or it the player may be worth a pickup from the waiver pool.)  Maybe you can handle the Youk.

Cuddyer for Bumgarner. Seriously.

In my friends league (12 team, mixed, auction) I was offered Madison Bumgarner for Michael Cuddyer.  I jumped all over it, right?  Um, well... You see... Eventually, yes.

I initially declined.  And this is where you say, "What?!?"

The simple fact is that I needed HR's and RBI's in the worst way and if I traded Cuddyer I would only have Lucas Duda and Edwin Encarnacion (who might be playing over his head) qualifying at 1B.  That, and with guys like Ryan Vogelsong and Daniel Hudson on the waiver wire, who needs SP's?  Right?

Right?

Okay, so I looked a little deeper and realized that my IP were starting to lag behind the average, and even though most of my pitching stats looked good, I really could use some W's.  And, clearly... obviously... Bumgarner is a better baseball player than Cuddyer.  Even though I have Clayton Kershaw, Gio Gonzalez, and Dan Haren in that league a guy like Bumgarner is always welcome.  That, and Brandon McCarthy (who I also own) just went on the DL.

But, that can't be it.  When you are evaluating a 1-for-1 trade offer with players from different positions you have to look at a few things:

• Am I improving my starters by using assets from my bench?
• Is the future performance of this player going to be a net gain?
• Who replaces the guy I'm giving up?
• If it is a keeper league, what are the player values and keeper ramifications?

The fact is that I'm going to start Bumgarner every time out and Cuddyer was playing for me about 70% of the time.  With E5's emergence this year I was at least somewhat dealing from my bench for a starter.

The future performance of Bumgarner is more assured than Cuddyer.  Better "prime profile" as identified by age, track record, injury history, etc. (As discussed in this space previously.)

Now, the kicker...  Sure there are decent SP's available, but check out the 1B's that are also available: Mitch Moreland, Chris Davis, and Michael Morse (on the DL).  So, if I dropped Wei-Yin Chen for Moreland the total impact would look like: Cuddyer/Chen for Moreland/Bumgarner.

That, my friends is a big step forward.

Another thing about keeper value.  I famously paid $16 for Cuddyer.  Keeping him next year would cost $21, and that's just not happening.  Bumgarner was $14.  Am I going to keep him next year for $19?  Hmm, probably not... but there is a non-zero chance that his value will rise into the $20's and I'll get another year of value out of him.

So, I reached out to the other owner and asked if the deal was still on the table.  He was like, "Yeah.  I couldn't believe you turned it down.  I'm flush with SP's and really need a hitter."

So, the bottom line is that I really got lucky there.  I should have examined all of the angles before turning it down initially.  I guess I was busy that day and I just looked at the fact that my pitching stats were better than my hitting stats and turned it down.

Next time I get an offer that is even close I'll weigh all of the factors and look at all possible angles before making a decision.

Scanning the Standings

Go ahead and take a look at the full, detailed standings in your league(s).  If you are in the middle of the pack, or better yet close to the top, scanning how you rank this time of the year can really help you out.

I'm in fourth place in a rather competitive 14-team league.  Closers went super fast in this draft which allowed me to scoop up some great deals in the middle rounds and bolster most of the 5x5 stats.  Unfortunately, I waited on closers and ended up with guys like Glen Perkins, David Hernandez, and Mike Adams.  Later I added Pedro Strop and Vinnie Pestano.  Set-up guys with shaky dudes in front of them.

The problem is that Joe Nathan, Matt Capps, J.J. Putz, Jim Johnson, and Chris Perez have all been at least solid enough to keep their jobs.  I'm at nearly the bottom of the list of saves with 2 points out of a possible 14.  That is a glaring deficit when you are in 4th place overall.

I had to do something about it.  I decided that I had to sacrifice a quality guy for two closers, hopefully one of those five that I mentioned above (might come cheap) plus another one who is seriously legit.

Okay, so away I went to further scan the standings.

• Step One: Who has saves?
• Step Two:  What do they need?
• Step Three:  What can I supply?
• Step Four:  Make the offer with an explanation
• Step Five:  Can you replace some of what you are giving up?

So, I discovered that a guy one or two spots in front of me was at the top of the list of saves but near the bottom in steals.  Basically the opposite of me.  Better yet, he had J.J. Putz and Jason Motte.  Criteria fulfilled.

Did I have someone with more value to him than me that could supply steals?  Well, yes in fact that was was exactly the case.  Jason Heyward has 9 steals on this young season, which is phenomenal.  I looked a little closer and he is only hitting .260 (.183 over the past 14 days) and he was dreadful last year.  Quite possibly the perfect "sell high" guy to someone who needs steals.  Conversely, it could also be that I'm giving up a total stud when you look at his numbers from 2010, but if that happens it happens.  I need saves big time.

I've got Nelson Cruz, Matt Joyce, Lucas Duda, and Brett Gardner also... and it is a 3-OF league.  So, even though Gardner is on the shelf for another 3-4 weeks I should be okay.

And, upon further review, someone in the league just dropped Cameron Maybin.  I only have the #7 waiver priority, so I might not get him... but the guy I'm trading with is #13 so I don't have to worry about him taking Maybin for the steals.  Maybin was always a super-prospect, he finally delivered in 2011, and even though he started slow this year he is starting to pick up the pace.  A worthy gamble.  If I get him he will replace the SB's I'm losing at least until Gardner comes back.

So, I made the offer of Jason Heyward and Pedro Strop for Putz and Motte.  I included an explanation of my rationale which I usually like to do.  Writing an explanation has risks because sometimes your potential trading partner will feel like you are somehow trying to trick them or over-convince them... and they don't want to be duped.  If you really are trying to dupe them, maybe you should not include an explanation.  I understand both sides of the issue, but I still like to include my reasoning for the offer so they can understand why I'm willing to give up the value I'm willing to give up.

My explanation went like this: "You need steals in the worst way and I need saves. Jason Heyward has been terrific all around, but the big thing is that he's got 9 SB's. I don't want to give him up, but to get a good closer and a bad one who I already have the backup for (I'm carrying David Hernandez) would really help me out. I'm throwing in Pedro Strop who doesn't have the job right now, but he gets the occasional save and has been awesome so far. It bears mentioning that both of the guys I am offering are ranked significantly higher than both of the guys I'm asking for. I really need some saves."

The fact is that I am giving up a lot and everything I said in there is true.  I like the last sentence in there because it shows how desperate I really am.  The bottom line is that if I can get up to 8 or 9 points in the saves category I'll be in 2nd place with a real shot to win it all.

If I don't climb the saves mountain, I'll stay in (maybe) the upper-middle of the pack.  I really had to force the issue with saves.  I'm going to hold on to Perkins, Adams, Hernandez, and also Dale Thayer in this league for a while too.  I'm dropping Pestano for Felipe Paulino and putting a bid in on Maybin as well.

Now is the time of the season where patterns are emerging and things are starting to firm up and be pretty close to "real."  But you still have a very large majority of the season yet to play.  It's a great time to take inventory of what your team is really likely to be, scan the detailed standings, and make some calculated sacrifices where they make sense (and can be replenished).

Trading King Felix

So I traded Felix Hernandez only 7 starts into the season.  With a 1.89 ERA.  And a 0.94 WHIP.  And a K/9 darn close to 9.  Am I crazy?  Maybe.  I have some splaining to do.

This trade was a part of a 5-for-5 deal in my AL-only "Expert" league.  I had holes all over the place.  I invested heavily in the outfield, but with Carl Crawford, Nolan Reimold, and Brett Gardner on the DL (and Shin-Soo Choo banged up to boot) I needed help there.  A bigger need was the fact that I had no real closers on the roster.  Plus, I was also choosing between Jeff Keppinger and Maicer Izturis at my MI slot with Erick Aybar at SS.

A smaller need was CI, where I had Kendrys Morales.  Morales is playing pretty well but he's not getting full-time AB's and I still have lingering doubts about him coming off of a year and a half away from baseball.  His power hasn't fully returned yet.

Felix is obviously a huge trade chip in a league like this.  I have no doubt that he will continue to be amazing.  Three thoughts about him, though:

1. As I have written ad-nauseum, I was on auto-draft to start the draft and ended up with Justin Verlander and Felix with the wheel picks at #10 and #11.  If I had it to do over, I would have taken Adrian Beltre and one of the remaining first basemen - probably Prince Fielder, but possibly Mark Teixeira.
2. I've already gotten seven starts out of Felix since his first start was in Japan on 3/28.  This is a roto league, so I've squeezed more than 20% of his season out of him already.
3. I don't think that he will continue to get wins in 75% of his decisions.  Possible, but unlikely with that offense behind him.

So, I packaged Felix and Morales plus the worst three guys on my roster (who were promptly dropped by the other guy) for Mark Teixeira, Jake Arrieta, Robert Andino, Dayan Viciedo, and Jose Valverde.

Tex is an upgrade to Morales.  He always gets off to a slow start, is showing signs of heating up, and will always get full-time AB's.  Good start there.

I love Arrieta this year.  I think he should be 80% as good as Felix, so that estimate is a huge part of this deal.  If that is true, I win the deal in a landslide.  The day after the deal went down, Arrieta pitched masterfully at Yankee Stadium.  His WHIP is uber-tiny.  Nice.

Jose Valverde was phenomenal in 2011.  He has gotten off to a mediocre start in 2012, but in a 10-team AL-only league having him is a big win for me.  He should have an extremely long leash after the year he had last year, so I finally have a legit closer.  Problem solved.  (Now, if we can just get Aaron Crow the job in KC we'll really be in business.)

Robert Andino has been one of the best hitters in the AL so far and has continued to rake since the trade went down.  He's actually in my SS slot right now with Aybar moving over to MI.  That position can change, but bumping Keppinger and Izturis is a win.  Bonus.

And, finally, the outfield.  Look, Viciedo is no great shakes but there was absolutely nothing on the waiver wire.  I was seriously looking at Don Kelly, folks.  Viciedo will continue to get AB's and he has undeniable upside.  He gives me a good 6th outfielder to play with Reimold on the shelf.  I actually still have to start Gardner (and Choo) this week, so I'm not out of the woods.  If I hadn't picked up Viciedo I would have had to drop Izturis or Keppinger for a Don Kelly type.  It could be worse.  Hopefully Viciedo will catch fire and Reimold will get healthy.

So, what do you think?  Did I get the most bang for my buck in this deal?  I took my biggest strength (starting pitching) and made it fairly average, but filled 3 or 4 significant holes in the process.

Proffered Crawford

Bad news this week for Carl Crawford.  He's out at least another three months with an elbow injury rehab.  The Red Sox hope to get him back in mid-July.  If that comes to pass he'll be available for about 11 weeks this year, or roughly 40% of the season.

So, what do you do with guys like this?  Crawford was supposed to have a bounceback season this year after a big dip in 2011.  A wrist injury limited him in the Spring and brought down his draft-day cost considerably.  He was to return in early May.

I took him with the first pick of the 7th round in my AL-Only Expert League, and now I'm wondering what to do with him.  That seemed like fantastic value at the time... I mean, you gotta figure that the 7th round in an AL-Only is akin to around the 12th or 13th round in a mixed league.  Great value there, right?  Even with the wrist injury and the down year last year?  Sure, but not with the elbow injury, too.

What to do, what to do...  In a 10-team or 12-team mixed league you can probably go ahead and cut a guy like this unless you don't have a better option for your DL slot (or you don't have a DL slot).  In a deeper league or AL-Only you pretty much have to hold on.

My AL-Only league only has 5 bench spots and no DL slot... plus I've got Brett Gardner and Lonnie Chisenhall and just picked up Zach Britton.  Gah!  If I could trade him for 50 cents on the dollar I would do it.  Maybe 25 cents on the dollar.  What sort of player does that represent in AL-Only?  Hmm, I would think I'd have a fair chance to get a player like Jeff Francoeur or David Murphy.

So, since we're about 10% of the way into the season the question becomes, "Is 50% of the year with someone like Clete Thomas and hopefully 40% of the year with Carl Crawford better than 90% of the year with Jeff Francoeur?"  Man, I have got to think that it is actually better to hold on to Crawford and hope for the best.

The hidden catch in that equation though, is that Thomas and Crawford take up two bench spots and Francoeur only requires one.  That leaves a spot to fish for saves with another setup guy or stash another utility infielder.

Your mileage may vary, but the point here is to take everything into consideration and not to just dump a commodity like Crawford for nothing. 

Of course, if you don't currently own Crawford the reverse situation may be true as well...  Today might be a great time to make a lowball offer for Crawford.

Heck, maybe they'll take Endy Chavez straight up?

Extra Medium

Sometimes we get too hung up in finding sleepers and finding breakouts.  We all want to be the person to find that next superstar-in-waiting with XXL-size production.

I'm here to tell you that prospecting and gambling too much can be what causes you to lose your fantasy leagues.  We dabble too much.  We put too many eggs in too few baskets, only to find out there's a hole in the basket.

Listen, you don't need those XXL numbers every time.  If you can get consistent reliable numbers that are above-average across the board you'll be in contention.  If one or two of those performers really pop for you, that will be a difference-maker.  We're avoiding potential busts here.

It's something that I call "extra medium."  Better than average.  Reliable.

Look, who's more likely to have a big year this year, Ichiro Suzuki or Nick Markakis?  Ichiro, I guess.  Who's more likely to be a bust?  Yep, Ichiro again.

This really does harken back to my recent post about measuring the value of players based on their floor, their ceiling, and their probable outcome.  Make sure you measure these, but I do have some constructive insight for you as well.

The acid test that I use when looking at baseball players looks like this:

1. Is there a significant history of injury?
2. Have they strung together at least two seasons in a row with increasing value?
3. Do they have a strong pedigree?  (High draft pick, soared through the minors, etc.)
4. Are they in the prime age range?  (26 to 31.)

If you can check those items off you can be reasonably sure you're not going to get a dud.

At this time of year, you should be looking for players that fit this mold that have gotten off to a mediocre start.  Their pedigree and recent history of success suggest that a turnaround is coming.  We're only 10% of the way through the season for crying out loud... but I promise you that there are folks in your leagues who have itchy trigger fingers with some of these guys.  Now is the time to make bids to get them.

Ceiling, Floor, Probability

When evaluating the future value of players I like to use the "ceiling" and "floor" concepts that scouts use, but I also mix in a measure of "probable" result.

It is possible that Player A has both a higher ceiling and floor than Player B, but their most probable or likely results might actually be a little lower than Player B.  Maybe Player B is more consistent.  Maybe they don't have any threat of injury.

So, for example, let's look at Nelson Cruz and Adam Jones.  The ceiling for Cruz is something like .315 with 39 HR, 130 RBI, and 20 SB.  However, that would be a full season and he has never played a full season.  His floor might be something like .265 with 24 HR, 76 RBI, and 5 SB.

Probably, though, he'll do something like .272 with 25 HR, 88 RBI, and 7 SB.

Let's have a look at Adam Jones.  Ceiling:  .300 with 32 HR, 110 RBI, 14 SB.  His floor?  Maybe .262 with 18 HR, 70 RBI, and 6 SB.  So, his ceiling is lower and his floor is lower.

But what is most likely with Dr. Jones?  I don't know, it is very subjective, but I gotta think something like .280 with 26 HR, 95 RBI, and 12 SB.

Usually when you evaluate players one will have the higher ceiling and the other will have the higher floor.  You are gambling upside possibility versus the less risky reliable results option.

Sometimes one player will have the higher ceiling and the higher floor.  But, that doesn't mean you automatically pick that guy.  Look at the probable outcomes before making your choice.

Drop it Like it's Hot

It occurred to me today that acquiring players off to a hot start is a really bad idea.  I realize it is counter-intuitive, but I think we should be trying to acquire players who are off to a reasonable start who are healthy and in their prime.

Let's say, for example, that there is a guy hitting .400 with 14 home runs through the first 32 games of the schedule.  He's on pace to hit .400 with 70 home runs.  Even if he has a career year, what is the absolute best that can happen?

Maybe for this particular player a career year would look like .310 with 35 home runs.  So, if he has that monster career year he will hit .288 with 21 home runs the rest of the way.  The person dealing this sort of player away has already gotten the most nutrient-packed meal out of him in the first month of the season.

He's not going to hit .400 with another 56 home runs.  But that is what you would be paying for.

I know it hurts, but you should instead be trying to trade away players like this.  Look, the other person will be getting a good player.  They might get .288 with another 21 home runs, even.  But you will be getting much greater value in return.

Who are the players that just haven't caught fire yet?  Look for them...  They will be hovering around the .230-ish mark with a couple of home runs or maybe a smattering of stolen bases.  No injury threat.  27-ish years old.

Let's say there is a player whose average season would be about .280 with 22 home runs.  32 games in he's batting .234 with 2 home runs.  No real injury risk or any other red flags... He just hasn't gotten into a groove yet.  This is a great target since he is likely to hit about .292 the rest of the way.  That, and really 2 home runs is about 10% of his targeted home run total and you're 20% of the way through the season.  He isn't all that far behind.  He could hit two tomorrow and be right back on track.

That look at percentages with regard to how far into the season you are is a great trick to see who are good trade targets.  Seeing just 2 home runs in that last example really messes with people...  They're thinking, "This guy is supposed to easily hit over 20 dingers and here we are around mid-May and he's got 2?!?  Something must be wrong." 

They are magnifying something that isn't there, and that is a time for you to act.

Veto Votto

What do you do if there is a trade accepted in your league that is clearly not a fair deal?  What if one person is taking advantage of another, newer fantasy player? 

Something like Joey Votto for J.D. Martinez.  Man, have you seen Martinez' numbers in the minors!  That guy is going to be a superstar!

Or, how about this... What if you see one of your primary competitors is getting stronger and you'd really like to block the move, even if it is a reasonable deal?  Hmm... that is a tricky one, isn't it?

These issues fall into a grey area based purely on the opinions of other people.  So many people are completely against vetos of any deals.  Period.  Other people are almost always against vetos.  Others don't have an opinion.

Me?  I'm glad you asked.  When it comes to vetos I have two questions: (1) Was there collusion?; and, (2) What is allowed by the rules?

That's it.  If there was collusion - automatic veto.  There should never be collusion in fantasy sports.  It ruins the fun for everyone when two teams conspire to turn one of the two teams into Voltron super-team.

Okay, simple enough but what if you would just like to block a nice move that a serious competitor is making?  A lot of people say you shouldn't veto any deal that is even close to being fair.  They are adamant about this.  I say you should do whatever is legal and ethical to win your league.  If you have a vote and you don't want the deal to go down, go ahead and vote against it.  In most leagues it takes somewhere between 4 and 8 votes to pass a veto, so if the deal is close to fair than your vote probably isn't going to be enough to get the veto done.  So, no harm no foul.  You gotta try, though.

I did say that you should do what is ethical, though...  Never ask any of your leaguemates to join with you in the veto.  That is tantamount to collusion and just not cool.  Cast your vote, keep your mouth shut, see what happens.

Then, go and work on a deal of your own.

The Art of the Deal

Trades are critical in fantasy sports and they are tough to pull off.  Well, I should say it's tough to pull off a deal that helps your team without giving up too much.

Here now are some pointers on what to do and what not to do:

1.  This is basic, but the other person has got to get something they want in the deal.  This is not necessarily the same thing as the old saying, "You have to give value to get value."  You may not.  In fact, the easiest deals are when you can identify a player you own that you don't really like all that much but you find there is another person in your league who loves the guy.  This may be because that person is a fan of the player's team or because they had him in a previous season or might have some sort of personal connection to the player.  They may be willing to trade more value to you than how you value the asset.

2.  It is best to work out the parameters of the deal over email.  You are less likely to get swindled over email than you might in a conversation.  It's a slower process.  Also, sending trade offers on your league site only to have them declined and (hopefully) countered is not very efficient.  Besides, early on you might be sending somewhat lopsided offers to test the waters...  These "test the waters" types of lopsided offers can make people feel insulted.  I'm talking about actual hard feelings that cause the other fantasy manager to dislike you as a person.  I've seen it happen many times.  It's a little weird, but they have an attachment to their players and a bad trade offer makes them feel like you are trying to take advantage of them or steal from them.  It's not just business.  You can't really say that you were just kidding.  Go back and forth over email with questions like, "I think I heard you say you like Robinson Cano...  Do you think we could work a deal that includes Howie Kendrick and maybe a couple of other guys like Sergio Santos and Brandon Morrow?"  That way you aren't saying you want to steal a bunch of guys from them in a 3-for-1 offer.  Anyone in their right mind would trade Kendrick plus something for Cano... and you are clearly aiming a little high with the request of Morrow and Santos, but it isn't out of line.  They could come back and say all sorts of things, most likely a counter-offer.  Now you are hammering out a deal.

3.  Conventional wisdom says that the fantasy manager getting the best player in the deal usually wins the deal.  This is because typically the "filler" players are not that far above replacement level.  I don't believe this is always the case, or at least it shouldn't be.  If I'm willing to trade Robinson Cano to you I really should be able to incrementally improve in two or three other areas.  This is why the example above isn't out of line.  The drop from Cano to Kendrick is a big one, but maybe my pitchers aren't very good.  If Morrow would be my #3 starter and Santos would replace a middle reliever on my roster, then I've probably improved more than the drop at 2B hurts me.

4.  Receiving an offer.  Let's say someone sends you an offer via the software on the league site.  The first thing you should do is send that person an email.  In that message you may say, "I appreciate the offer and I hope we can work out a different deal in the future, but I really like Cano this year (like MVP-like him) and I doubt we can work something out for him unless you completely blow me away.  Perhaps we can work a lesser deal for one of my guys like Alexei Ramirez or Tommy Hanson?"  It's important that you mean it, but you may be coming from one of two places with a message like this.  (1) I really, really don't see myself dealing Cano; or, (2) I need more for Cano than you are offering.  Either way, now you are talking and working the deal over email.  Keep the lines of communication open.

Okay, those are just a few pointers and I'm sure there will be more to come in the future.  Best of luck to everyone in working out those mutually-beneficial deals this year.  It truly is more of an art than a science.

3 for 1 Trades

Did you know that you can work a trade where you land more assets in the deal and still lose?  You absolutely can... Allow me to explain.

First and foremost, this is a common belief but I'll do my best to put my own personal spin on it.  The belief is that if you get the best player in the deal you almost always win.  A lot of 3-for-1 trades would include three guys who are, say, a 6 on a 10-point scale in exchange for one player who is an 8.

Let's say for a moment that a replacement level player is about a 4 on our 10-point scale.  It would stand to reason that the fantasy manager getting the three 6's would win the deal, right?  I mean, they now have three players significantly above average and they only weakened themselves in one spot.  That may be true, but the impact of the best player in this deal is bigger than just the incremental gain.  There is a competitive advantage over your adversaries that does not follow a linear path along with the value of the player.  In other words, a guy who is a 6 gives you a small advantage over replacement level (a 4 on our scale) but a guy who is an 8 gives you well more than double the advantage.  The reason is scarcity.  Very few of your leaguemates will have an 8 at that position, but you gotta figure that most everyone has a 5 or 6 just about everywhere.

Let us define "replacement level" for a moment.  Simply stated, if one of the guys on your roster goes down for the season with an injury who can you grab from the waiver wire to plug in for free?  That's replacement level.  It may not be a bad player in real life, either.  In a typical 10 or 12 team mixed league the replacement level guy is going to be an established everyday player of pretty decent real-life quality.

A couple more thoughts about our 3-for-1 deal.  You may be the one to give up the 1 for the 3 under a couple of different circumstances.  If you have a couple of big injuries, you may need some fill-in's that are better than replacement level.  Trading an 8 plus the opportunity cost (if you can call it that) of a couple of 4's equates to 16, if you follow the logic.  Three 6's is 18.  As I mentioned earlier, the 8 is exponentially more valuable, but if you have a couple of injuries you may have to do what you have to do.  Especially if you don't even like the options on the waiver wire and you think maybe one of those 6's will perform like a 7... It could be a win for you.  When trying to work a deal like this, target a team owner who has depth at the position you need.  For example, last year in baseball it is completely possible that the guy with Troy Tulowitzki also had Starlin Castro.  Targeting one of those two would have been a great way to go.

It is also possible that you just don't believe that your 8 really is an 8.  He's playing over his head and now is the time to sell high.  Could be.

You can always play the favorite team card, too.  Make sure you know who the folks in your league root for and try to deal players from those teams to their associated fans.  Most fantasy players, even entry-level ones, know enough not to over-value the players from the teams they love.  However, most fantasy players, even experts, have a soft spot in their heart for their favorites and will value them just a little bit more than players from other teams.  Use this to your advantage.  The Red Sox fan is going to want to trade for Dustin Pedroia and might give you just a little extra in a deal.

Good luck in your drafts, my friends.  The next couple of weeks should be busy.